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What Wins Games in the NFL?

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  • What Wins Games in the NFL?

    What do you think is a large contributer to victories in the NFL?

    Let me explain the situation. Im running a regression for my class. For those that havent taken any statistics or econometrics courses the regression ill explain more below, but it will be set equal to the number of wins a team gets. On the other side I will have their statistical rank of their offense and defense based on points allowed/for as well as turnover ratings. The program will run it and tell me what things most closely correlate with wins (i.e. itll show how much each statistic is responsible for an increase in wins).


    Im kinda cruising through this stuff now and its a bit of a pain and tedious but I plan on posting my results here when Im completely done in a couple of days. As of now im putting in D and O ranks according to points scored against and points for. Im also going to put in turnovers forced and turnovers if I can find the numbers, pretty sure I can.


    Now my question for all of you:

    What things do you think are important to winning games?

    Id like to know so I can put it into my regression and test your theories as well. What else should I add in your opinion? Almost anything can be quantified (seriously, youd be amazed) but it has to be in order for this to work.
    Originally posted by Thumper/JBCX/Bixby
    Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.

  • #2


    He just wins games


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    • #3
      Too broad of a question.

      Comment


      • #4
        Scoring more points then the other team.

        Comment


        • #5
          ^^^ What this guy said.

          Narrow down your question.

          Bonekrusher.

          Originally posted by JordanTaber
          Football...it's rocket surgery now, folks.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by tjsunstein View Post
            Too broad of a question.


            How so?

            Do you think offense or defense is more important to winning? Do you think winning the turnover battle is most important? Special teams? Sacks? Do you think there is a magical yard number (100 rushing yards) that is often there when a team wins? This isnt to broad at all, you just have to think a little bit.
            Originally posted by Thumper/JBCX/Bixby
            Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.

            Comment


            • #7
              Exactly my point. There are hundreds of sub questions.

              There are millions of answers to 'What wins games..' varying from gameplanning to personnel to in game coaching to execution.

              Offense and defense play a complimentary role. One isn't as effective without the right partner.

              Winning the turnover battle helps, yes.

              Special teams can make or break games but it isn't necessary to have an elite unit, see Packers 2009. Some could argue field position wins games but that's contingent on your other units and how effective they are.

              Typically anytime you rush for over 150 yards, I'd say you have a 75% chance of winning. Just a raw guess. But there are too many variables!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by hockey619 View Post
                What do you think is a large contributer to victories in the NFL?


                Now my question for all of you:

                What things do you think are important to winning games?
                Touchdowns




                2 C 5:6-8 Jakob Murphy aka themaninblack

                Comment


                • #9
                  I don't think there is any secret formula to winning games other than having more points on the board than the other team when the final whistle is blown. A game can be won a million ways, kind of the reason we watch. Sure, if you do all the right things, the odds are in your favor but you're never guaranteed anything.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by tjsunstein View Post
                    Exactly my point. There are hundreds of sub questions.

                    There are millions of answers to 'What wins games..' varying from gameplanning to personnel to in game coaching to execution.

                    Offense and defense play a complimentary role. One isn't as effective without the right partner.

                    Winning the turnover battle helps, yes.

                    Special teams can make or break games but it isn't necessary to have an elite unit, see Packers 2009. Some could argue field position wins games but that's contingent on your other units and how effective they are.

                    Typically anytime you rush for over 150 yards, I'd say you have a 75% chance of winning. Just a raw guess. But there are too many variables!

                    Variables. Thats what Im looking for. Ive put in rank of defense, rank of offense (both by points), ill put in special teams I think to help with field position, and turnovers for each offense and defense(forced) and probably playoff wins. The program runs to show you how much each really does effect the changes in the wins column.

                    It is a tough question to answer as a whole but im just running some numbers to see if they dissapprove the defense wins championships expression, that sort of thing.
                    Originally posted by Thumper/JBCX/Bixby
                    Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      John Clayton has done some statistical work re: elite qbs records vs non-elite qbs. His conclusion is that having an elite qb helps you win. A lot.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by tjsunstein View Post
                        I don't think there is any secret formula to winning games other than having more points on the board than the other team when the final whistle is blown. A game can be won a million ways, kind of the reason we watch. Sure, if you do all the right things, the odds are in your favor but you're never guaranteed anything.


                        Very true and not dissagreeing at all. What this does is it shows just how responsible each of those little things is. Maybe one of them is much more important and relevant than anyone realized and thats why im testing it. So is there any youd like to see about, or any you feel are undervalued (special teams for example)?
                        Originally posted by Thumper/JBCX/Bixby
                        Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by yourfavestoner View Post
                          John Clayton has done some statistical work re: elite qbs records vs non-elite qbs. His conclusion is that having an elite qb helps you win. A lot.

                          This is a good one. Id have to decide what made an elite qb elite, but that would be a good one for sure. I couldnt use record to determine which one is elite cause im using record as the effected variable.
                          Originally posted by Thumper/JBCX/Bixby
                          Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I dunno, you can win a game by any means. I would say the most important two things are quarterback play and winning the turnover battle. But there isn't a formula to win games. You can win with a suspect defense, and just outscore the other team. You can win with a poor offense, and have a stellar defense.

                            Having a good, clutch kicker is supremely important.

                            I would say you have a much better chance at winning if you can get at least one special team or defensive touchdown.

                            Third downs are also crucial. If you can convert on third down and stop the opponent from doing so, you have a much better chance of winning.

                            Is that good? You need anything else?

                            Bonekrusher.

                            Originally posted by JordanTaber
                            Football...it's rocket surgery now, folks.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Are you going to look at variables such as complexity of offensive and defensive schemes used, individual player variables and coaching/front office personnel?




                              2 C 5:6-8 Jakob Murphy aka themaninblack

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