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Football Outsiders DVOA Season Predictions

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  • #16
    Originally posted by BeerBaron View Post
    Alex Smith has never given a reasonable mind much reason to give him a chance. I like the 49ers this year and think they'll win the division if Alex Smith is at least average.
    I disagree but it's not an argument worth having.

    Originally posted by BeerBaron View Post
    I also don't like their edge rushers. They need their own version of a Ware/Merriman/Woodley to get pressure without blitzing.
    I agree that a "sack specialist" would be scary in SF but 17.5 sacks out of their OLBs is far from terrible.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by BeerBaron View Post
      Alex Smith has never given a reasonable mind much reason to give him a chance. I like the 49ers this year and think they'll win the division if Alex Smith is at least average.
      What about last year when he threw 18 touchdowns in 10 games and put up middle of the pack numbers? In the two years that he wasn't injured (2006/2009) Smith has been average and the 49ers team is so good this year that they only need an average quarterback to win 9-11 games. People tend to write Smith off without actually thinking about his situation, tbh.

      2005: Rookie, played injured, making the transition from a spread, god-awful team around him

      2006: Showed improvement, 49ers were only a couple of games away from winning the division

      2007: Started off 2-1, injured in week 4, came back and tried to play with a separated shoulder but sucked because he played with a separated shoulder

      2008: Still hadn't recovered from the damage he did by trying to play, sat out the season due to injury

      2009: First year with actual weapons on the outside, though still a bad offensive line, put up good numbers and led the team to a 5-5 record that could have easily been 6-4 or 7-3 with some luck

      I also don't like their edge rushers. They need their own version of a Ware/Merriman/Woodley to get pressure without blitzing.
      They do get pressure without blitzing because of Justin Smith and Aubrayo Franklin. If both play at least almost as well as they did last year then they will be near the top of the league in sacks again. Lawson, Haralson, Brooks, LaBoy, and Briggs are enough with those two on the line, until we draft a dominant 3-4 OLB. The 49ers actually rarely blitzed last year.

      On topic, FO is a joke. They are wrong just as much as they are right and their so-called "formula" involve nothing but making **** up.
      Last edited by abaddon41_80; 09-08-2010, 04:35 PM.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by phlysac View Post
        I disagree but it's not an argument worth having.

        I agree that a "sack specialist" would be scary in SF but 17.5 sacks out of their OLBs is far from terrible.
        How so? Yeah, he's been getting screwed with constant coaching changes, but he hasn't looked all that good otherwise. They just need him to game manage and pick up some 3rd downs while they run the ball and strangle people defensively to be successful. They don't need much more than that to win the division....

        17.5 out of their OLBs isn't bad...but getting that out of one guy like a Ware or Woodley or Dumervil can do would put them way over the top. Needing to blitz for consistent pressure is going to get you burned by a good QB.

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        • #19
          I think the ceiling for the Chiefs is 8-8 and that is if they catch some breaks, I'm thinking more like 6-10 and SD at worst 10-6.

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          • #20
            Seems pretty much in line with what most think. Especially in the area.

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            • #21
              Buffalo with the third ranked defense?

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              • #22
                Originally posted by BeerBaron View Post
                How so? Yeah, he's been getting screwed with constant coaching changes, but he hasn't looked all that good otherwise. They just need him to game manage and pick up some 3rd downs while they run the ball and strangle people defensively to be successful. They don't need much more than that to win the division....
                Which is what he did last season. He'll be even better this season.

                Originally posted by BeerBaron View Post
                17.5 out of their OLBs isn't bad...but getting that out of one guy like a Ware or Woodley or Dumervil can do would put them way over the top. Needing to blitz for consistent pressure is going to get you burned by a good QB.
                I don't disagree but the 49ers got the vast majority of their sacks from DE's and OLB's in standard sets. They didn't blitz any more often than any 3-4 team.

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                • #23
                  Their accuracy leaves much to be desired. They correctly picked 5/12 playoff teams last year, which is about the same as just randomly picking names out of a hat. The year before that, they went 6 for 12.

                  When you consider one of those is a gimmie (Indy hasn't missed the playoffs in 8 years), it's not impressive.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by GB12 View Post
                    1. Falcons
                    2. Packers
                    3. Eagles
                    4. Seahawks
                    5. Bears
                    6. Vikings

                    Interesting.
                    If the Eagles manage a three seed and win the NFC East as the 4th youngest team in football led by a first starting QB I would bet serious money that the Eagles win at least two superbowls in the next decade if things worked out like that. That type of season under Kolb would cement Andy Reid as one of the greatest coaches of this era. If the the switch from Kolb to McNabb results in an immediate improvement I will be shocked and amazed.

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                    • #25
                      Say what you want about Alex Smith but there is a very strong arguement for him being the BEST QB in that division which is amazing, I'd be one of his biggest supporters I reckon and even I think that sounds outrageous.

                      But honestly, once Hasselbeck is inevitably injured it is absolutely clear cut that he is the top QB.


                      Props to BK on the sig!

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                      • #26
                        Smith putting up avg numbers last year is actually commendable.

                        Strolls out to start the 2nd half week 7 having never played with Crabtree and Morgan at WR. Probably why he leaned on Vernon Davis.

                        Starts week 8.

                        Joe Staley hurt on first play of San Francisco 49ers-Indianapolis Colts game

                        Misses an additional 6 games.

                        Now is go time. Avg will get the team to playoffs but if he wants to be resigned he has to take a combo of steps up in efficiency and production.

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