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Small chance. If the team continues to tank and the Colts miss the playoffs obviously the chances go up. Polian and Irsay seem to like continuity which is why they hired Caldwell in the first place. But he and his staff have made some really bone-headed decisions this season that has cost the team wins. I think he will probably get at least another year because of injuries but IMO he is completely out of his depth and needs to go back to position coaching.
I have lost a lot of respect for Caldwell over the last week, mostly for looking like an indignant fish and then not shutting up about a non-penalty.
But I never had too much respect to begin with (Peyton show on offense) and he almost got a perfect season last year (and SB appearance) and definitely has the injury excuse this year, so no chance he's gone.