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Draft bust percentage

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  • #16
    Originally posted by art vandelay View Post
    I wouldn't call Kyle Boller a bust yet.

    What has he done to warrant not being a bust?

    The bust outweighs the not bust factors lol.

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    • #17
      I agree with most of it, but definitly not ALL of it, overall it's still very interesting to look at.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by skinzzfan25 View Post
        What has he done to warrant not being a bust?

        The bust outweighs the not bust factors lol.
        I consider taking a team to the conference championship as a qualifier to being a legit player. Not every QB can win a super bowl.

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        • #19
          Going back to 1989 is very misleading. College football has changed dramatically and in the current game, QB's are throwing the ball in passing attacks by major colleges a heck of a lot more than they did in the 90's. That is making it a lot easier for scouts, GM's and HC's to draft QB's. In fact since the 2000's, QB has one of the lowest bust ratios by position. It is far easier today to watch film on a QB like Russell and Quinn than it was in the 90's when college football by major colleges was all about running the football.
          And proud of it!!!

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          • #20
            It depends what ESPN calls a "bust."

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Iamcanadian View Post
              Going back to 1989 is very misleading. College football has changed dramatically and in the current game, QB's are throwing the ball in passing attacks by major colleges a heck of a lot more than they did in the 90's. That is making it a lot easier for scouts, GM's and HC's to draft QB's. In fact since the 2000's, QB has one of the lowest bust ratios by position. It is far easier today to watch film on a QB like Russell and Quinn than it was in the 90's when college football by major colleges was all about running the football.
              I don't know how you could say that. Of the nine 1st Rd. QB's drafted since 2000, 4 of them have to be considered busts after having 4 seasons in the league. Two of the others Leftwich and Grossman are on the bubble, although in Grossman's and as well as Vicks case, there is something to be said to being a team deep into the playoffs. The only real star of the group is Palmer, although some people would consider Vick one, Pennington is average, mainly because of injuries.

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              • #22
                Don't think Ryan Pickett is a bust.

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                • #23
                  A big part of it is position scarcity. If a team needs a QB, but the best on the board is a guy who peobably shouldn't be a 1st round talent, they'll take him anyway because they need him. The same isn't true for Safeties.


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                  • #24
                    Interesting read overall. It would be nice if he somehow took into account players with injury problems. I really don't consider them busts. Some positions are just susceptible to injury (like RB) and its not necessarily the player's fault.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by dhoe20 View Post
                      ...Vick is not a bust. Give Carr and Boller time, but Vick is not a bust by no means. I think we'll be able to see some good from Carr if he takes the starting job from Jake.
                      well last year his team went 7-9, they were last in passing yards, but oh yea, he was a great rusher. how many coaches has he gone through, and what has he done NOT to be a bust.

                      If my team was last in passing yards, and had a losing season, i would consider the QB a bust. unless it was his 1st/2nd year starter perhaps.

                      vick = bust as a QB, great as a wideout or running back.

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                      • #26
                        Considering there are only 32 starting quarterbacks in the league, it's easy to see why they would statistically bust the most often. Every other position (except Center I guess) goes at LEAST 2 deep before you're considered a bust.
                        Sums it all up. No one takes centers in the first for the most part either.

                        OL and DT in particular also have a high bust factor because of the nature of the positions. Big guys are far more likely to get hurt and also the nature of the size they need leads to weight issues being more likely.

                        WR must also be up there, especially recently. That one is harder to explain, though I guess they are the position most dependent on the rest of their team. With poor OL and QB play they will find it harder.

                        Safety and LB being the lowest is not shocking. LB has 3, sometimes 5, positions you can play. Some can even move to safety. It is also one of the positions that changes the least and also seems to get the least respect in drafts. If you arent a perfect prospect, you arent a 1st round talent.

                        Same deal with safety. If you arent a perfect prospect you arent sniffing the first round. It also pretty much translates from college to the pros. The scheme wont change your responsibilities much. Another big thing for both positions is they will make up the majority of special teams. If you can contribute there you get a little longer to develop elsewhere.


                        Props to BK on the sig!

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