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  • QB of the Future

    WARNING: long post

    Also, this has very little to do with who we're picking between Carr/Vinny the rest of the year. I'm talking 2008+. I firmly believe we need to make a move this offseason and I'll show why later.

    First, the incumbents:

    1. Jake Delhomme - Career NFL Passing Stats: 59.7% completion percentage, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 100:64 TD:INT ratio. Not much to say here, we all know who Delhomme is. He seemed to be taking a step up this year with Davidson as OC, but he only lasted 3 games so it might have only been variance and good luck that we hadn't seen "Bad Jake" yet. Tommy John surgery is a very serious procedure. The recovery rate is high (~80%), but it takes a while to get back to full strength. Already 32 years old and I wouldnt expect him to be 100% until his age 34 season. Sorry Jake, I appreciate everything you did for us, but it's better for the organization if we approached this offseason as if you're done. If you can comeback in late 2008 or 2009, great, but I don't want this developing into a Morgan situation.

    2. David Carr - NFL Career: 59.8% comp percentage, 6.4 YPA, 61:67 ratio. What we've seen from Carr so far is pretty much what Texans fans told us to expect. He has no pocket presence whatsoever and is rattled easily. Whether the reason is the abuse he took in Houston or just because he sucks doesn't matter, the point is he isn't the answer. That 6.4 yards per pass attempt stat really sticks out. Last year, even when he completed 68% of his passes, he only got 6.3 per attempt. You gotta be able to get the ball down the field, and he can't. I'm not sure if Hurney has the balls to cut him after this season, but I dont see him back after 2008.

    3. Vinny Testaverde - 56.6%, 6.9 YPA, 271:261 ratio. More than you should expect out of a 43 year old street free agent, but still not enough. If Vinny wants to do it, I could see him beginning next season in the 2003 Rodney Peete role and I wouldn't be terribly upset with that. But 2008 would be the absolute longest he'd stick around. He's the type of player you should want out of a back up, though.

    4. Brett Basanez - College Stats: 4 year starter in the Big 10. 57.64%, 6.8 YPA, 44:36 ratio. Sophomore year really killed those stats as he was decent his Senior year with 63% comp% and 21:8 TD/INT. Still, Basanez is a fun guy to root for and he has some mobility but I think we all know he's not really a starter. Too small and not enough arm. Could develop into a nice backup/practice player, but that's it.

    5. Matt Moore - College Stats: 2 year starter in the Pac-10. 60.02%, 7.82 YPA, 29:26 ratio. 19 of those INTs from his junior year. Jaws was nuts about this guy as a prospect. Said he was the 3rd or 4th best QB in last years draft. He looked good in preseason with the Cowboys and showed he has an NFL arm in the one completion he made with us, eventhough he's listed as only having average arm strength. I like his upside and he may have been drafted had he started earlier in his college career. Still, he's a project. Not a guy who can help us this year...and probably not next year. I would like to keep him on the roster as the #3, without a doubt.

    Next, the guys who will be available this offseason:

    1. Tony Romo - 64.2%, 8.5 YPA, 19:9 ratio. Don't hold your breath. I don't know what the Cowboys are waiting for, but they won't let Romo go. He's staying in Dallas

    2. Rex Grossman - 54.2%, 6.5 YPA, 28:32 ratio. No thanks. But this just gives you an idea of how bad David Carr is. Rex's completion percentage sucks comparitively, but he actually gets more yardage per pass attempt. And both have their TD:INT ratio tipped towards the wrong side.

    3. Josh McCown - 58.3%, 6.4 YPA, 29:34 ratio. I've always liked him for some reason, and after looking at his stats, I can't figure out why. On the plus side, he's probably a better WR than Colbert or Carter

    4. Cleo Lemon - 57.7%, 6.0, 4:5. Still young, hasn't seen much time. I think the Dolphins keep him around another year.

    5. Derek Anderson (RFA) - 55.5%, 7.6 YPA, 19:16 ratio. Looks like Rex Grossman before a couple teams decide to game plan for him and pick him off 4 times. Pass

    Others: Ken Dorsey, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jamie Martin and the Pillsbury Throwboy. Sadly, Jim "God" Sorgi signed an extension with the Colts

    I'm sure there'll be a few guys who get cut this offseason. Still, if they get released they cant be much better than what's out there. Kurt Warner was a possibility, but doubtful since it seems the new Arizona staff likes him more than Leinart

    I'm going to take a break and run through the guys in the draft next
    Last edited by SchizophrenicBatman; 10-28-2007, 11:22 PM.

  • #2
    Now for college prospects. This is the main reason I think a move needs to be made soon. There's no perfect QB this year (when is there ever? Even Peyton had the "couldnt win the big one" label in college) but there is a ton of depth. And next year has nothing. Absolutely nothing. Remember these guys have a few more games left of their senior years, which is usually their best, so their stats will improve a bit.

    2008 Draft: Tier One

    1. Andre Woodson - 4 year player, ~3 year starter in the SEC. 62.93% completion percentage, 7.37 YPA, 67:21 TD/INT. Honestly, I think those are amazing stats considering the conference he plays in. The problem is he takes a TON of sacks, though from what I've seen it's because he just doesn't feel pressure...not because he's like Carr and panics and runs around. Either way, it's not good. However, sacks > INTs and he generally limits the INTs. Elite arm strength, though not godly like Russell/Boller/Vick. Throwing motion looks a little fumble prone. Not very mobile...I think he can run decently if he wants to, but he never does

    2. Matt Ryan - 4 year player, ~3 year starter in the ACC. 60.63%, 6.90 YPA, 44:26 ratio. Plays in a pro-style offense. BC always has good offensive lines, but in the VT game he seemed rattled under pressure for most of the game. Need to keep an eye on that. Still, he delivered when he needed to and seems to have intangibles out the wazoo. Cerebral pocket passer with more mobility than people give him credit for. Seems to have a noticeable number of bad games against bad teams (plays down to competition or just small sample size?). Throws off the back foot/across the body a little too much for my liking. Still, he looks the part and acts the part.

    3. Brian Brohm - 4 year player, 3 year starter for Louisville (CUSA/Big East). 66.94%, 9.24 YPA, 67:19 ratio. Umm, wow. I knew his stats would be impressive because Bobby Petrino's offense is a system (and his brother is on the coaching staff so theyll do everything in their power to make him look good), but I wasn't expecting them to be that impressive. Well, that's part of the reason I'm doing this analysis. We're impressed with Ryan and Woodson because they're newer and we're down on Brohm because we've been hearing about him since he was a Freshman and he hasn't willed his team to wins this year despite having no defense. Still, a question must be answered. Is he overanalyzed like Peyton was...or has he been critiqued down to his real talent level like Leinart and Quinn? Also, he hasn't really improved at the rate Woodson and Ryan have year to year...though that's hard to do when you start out as good as he was in the first place.

    2008 Draft: Tier Two

    4. Colt Brennan - 3 year starter in the WAC. 69.97%, 9.03 YPA, 119:36 ratio. Polarizing prospect. Is he a good QB or just a product of the system/poor competition? The answer likely lies in between. Ignoring the numbers, he's tall enough for the position but needs to put on some weight. His release is a little sidearm, so that might be a concern. Of course, he'll need to adapt to an NFL offense and learn to line-up under center. I'm not going to go much further on him as I doubt the team drafts him since he got kicked out of Colorado.

    5. Chad Henne - 4 year starter in the Big 10. 59.04%, 7.08 YPA, 80:33 ratio. I was never real impressed with Henne as a player. However, I think the disaster that was the first two games this year has caused him to become a little underrated. His stats are hurt a good amount because he passed more his sophomore and freshman years, but they're still pretty solid for a pro-style offense in a BCS division. Also, look at his game log this year. He SUCKED, hard, against App State and Oregon...and has been injured a few other games. But he was really good the other four games. Then again, they weren't exactly top competition. Interesting prospect that I think I'm only intrigued by because Tom Brady went to Michigan and fell out of favor his senior year too...even though they aren't that similar as players. Henne is only 6'2 for one.

    6. Erik Ainge - 4 year player, ~2 1/2 starter in the SEC. 60.88%, 7.26 YPA, 55:30 ratio. This is a guy I wrote off a couple years ago as a "dumb" player who will never amount to anything. And because of that, I think I may have underrated him. He was GOD AWFUL as a sophomore and mediocre as a freshman but he's been solid ever since. He's 6'6, played in the SEC, has a more than adequate arm...I dunno, he could be a guy who surfaces in a couple years as a good player. Or he could be a bust. Besides the terrible first two years, he's interception and injury prone. I haven't payed much attention to him since he was stinking it up two years ago, so I'll be watching him when I can the rest of the year. If he finishes the year hot and lights up the Senior Bowl, I could see him rise up draft boards real quick. Of course even if he does, are we sure he isn't a Kyle Boller type?

    7. Dennis Dixon - 3 year player, 2 year starter in the Pac-10. 64.06%, 7.34 YPA, 34:20 ratio. Dual threat QB that will have to adapt to an NFL offense. Doubt the Panthers go after him, but still an interesting prospect. He's still young and has really blown up in performance this year. His junior year was real ugly and he looked like he was destined for a position switch or career in baseball (drafted by the Braves last year and played in the minors during the summer) but his senior year is great so far...68%, 8.42 YPA, 16:3. If Oregon somehow ends up in the NC, he could go Vince Young on us (but it's doubtful).

    2008 Draft: The Scrubs

    8. John David Booty - 1 1/2 year starter in the Pac-10. 62.63%, 7.52 YPA, 44:19 ratio. Well the stats look ok, but meh. He plays in the no defense Pac-10 with all the talent in the world around him, didnt have to be thrown into the fire until his junior year, and has arguably never been the best QB on his team. He threw four picks against Stanford. Stanford. I don't think his arm is more than average and consensus is that he doesn't have a high ceiling. So basically, we're looking at Matt Leinart if we're lucky. Anyone check on how Leinart is doing in Arizona with two beast WRs?

    9. Sam Keller - 1 year starter in the Pac-10, 1 year in the Big 12. 60.90%, 7.87 YPA, 39:20 ratio. I haven't seen much of him at all, but Scott has had a mancrush on him for a couple years now. Just judging from the solid YPA despite a low-end comp% (he was actually in the 50s with Arizona State with an 8+ ypa) I'm guessing he must have a good arm. Nebraska runs a somewhat pro-style offense I believe, and while he hasn't been terrible, they've been losing a lot of games and he's racked up 10 picks. The next Andrew Walter? Or not even that? He did lose his job at ASU to Rudy Carpenter

    10. Anthony Morelli - 2 year starter in the Big 10. 56.04%, 6.51 YPA, 25:17 ratio. The Rex Grossman of college football. I'm guessing someone saw something in him at some point, otherwise I don't know why the hell Penn State has stuck with him so long. Senility, I guess

    11. Matt Flynn - Barely a 1 year starter in the SEC. 55.60%, 7.29 YPA, 13:7 ratio. At one point I thought he'd be a good player. I think it was a bowl game a couple years ago. Maybe he would've been if he had gone to a college that didn't have JaMarcus Russell. As it stands, 55% for 6.6 a throw as a senior on LSU isn't going to cut it. He does have an NFL body, so maybe the Pats pick him up to replace Matt Cassel as their crappy backup.

    12. Kyle Wright - 3 year starter in the ACC. 60.02%, 7.53 YPA, 35:26 ratio. Miami has some rotten luck with these top HS QB prospects, huh? Don't be fooled by the somewhat passable stats either, his action in the offense has been marginalized since Miami realized he sucks, so he's being used in good situations for play action, 8 man boxes, etc.

    13. Brandon Cox - 3 year starter in the SEC. 61.71%, 7.97 YPA, 40:26. Similar situation to Wright, except he's not even a good prospect physically.

    2008 Draft: The Sleepers

    A. Josh Johnson - 3 year starter in Division I-AA. 68.04%, 9.06 YPA, 100:15 ratio. Oh, and he's a dual threat QB at that. Ridiculous stats. From what little I could dig up it seems there isn't anything preventing him for playing in the NFL. The tools are good enough. He might need to put on some weight, but he's 6'3 and doesnt have a weird side arm motion. The question is, can he go Tarvaris Jackson on us? Well, Tarvaris had a 55% completion percentage in Div-2 so, maybe not. Just don't use a 2nd round pick on him and you should be fine. If he busts as a 6th rounder or UDFA, big deal. Worth taking a shot at him IMO. The one larger issue is that he doesn't even really play a I-AA schedule. I mean, he does, but San Diego (his college) plays the equivalent of Hawaii's schedule in Division I-AA, to give you an idea. I imagine it'll take him a long time to catch up to the learning curve of the NFL, but he's only 21, so there's plenty of time

    B. Joe Flacco - 2 year starter in Division I-AA (transferred from Pitt). 66.67%, 7.70 YPA, 31:13 ratio. 6'6 230 player with an above average arm who has just gone completely nuts this year. Delaware plays a good schedule for their division and he's at 73% for the year with 9.5 ypa. Apparently, Delaware doesnt really let him air it out a whole lot, though. Sort of like JaMarcus Russell in LSU last year. Lots of short routes where the receivers get room to run. It's tough to get a read on a 2 year player, even tougher when he's in a lower division. And even tougher upon that if he's in an offense that isn't displaying his skills. He's the guy all the scouts are raving upon moreso than Johnson or Ricky Santos. Of course...scouts hyped up Tarvaris Jackson too.

    C. Paul Smith - 3 year starter in C-USA. 63.47%, 8.16 YPA, 54:29. I'll be honest, I don't know anything about him. His stats were really consistent his first two years, then his comp% dropped this year but his YPA went way up. He looks good on the surface, but he's on the height borderline at 6'2 and if I had to guess, I bet Tulsa runs a spread offense. Also, I googled him real quick and read something about a strange throwing motion.

    D. Ricky Santos - 4 year starter in Division I-AA. 68.36%, 8.14 YPA, 116:28. Celebrated New Hampshire quarterback. UNH plays a tough schedule and have been in the hunt for the divI-AA championship every year under Santos. He's hit with the double whammy playing in a lower division and running a predominately shotgun, pass happy offense, though. Uphill struggle for him I'd imagine, as he's right on that height line at 6'1/6'2-ish himself and doesnt have any real impressive tools. He runs a good amount in college, but I don't think that'll translate into anything more than some pocket mobility in the NFL. Still, it's hard to argue with the production and he's got the intangibles. Will he succeed where teammate David Ball failed?

    E. Omar Haugabook - 2 year starter in the Sun Belt. 60.94%, 6.21 YPA, 33:28. More of an athlete playing QB than anything else. He has the arm strength for the position, but just isn't really cut out for QB in my opinion. He picks up some yards on the ground though, so a position change isn't out of the question in the NFL. Or Brad Childress could like what he sees and...

    Others: Alex Brink, Luke Drone, Kyle Spotts
    Last edited by SchizophrenicBatman; 10-30-2007, 05:56 PM.

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    • #3
      ok I dont feel like spending 3 hours on these guys but basically they suck. let's see here

      2009 Draft: 2005 Redux?

      1. Nate Longshore - Tedford QB
      2. Chase Holbrook - A poor mans Colt Brennan
      3. Todd Boeckman - I actually like him, but he hasn't been pressed to do much in the Ohio State offense. He'll be a bit old when he actually graduates too
      4. Curtis Painter - Not that great. His stats look good because he's beaten up on the directional schools of Michigan and Illinois. If he has a good senior year he'll go in the first round and be a bust, guaranteed
      5. Chase Daniel - A midget that can scramble. Maybe he can succeed despite his height, more likely he's the next in a line of good short college QBs who can't cut it in the pros due to their height a la Stefan LeFors
      6. Graham Harrell - A homeless mans Colt Brennan
      7. John Parker Wilson - Not even sure he'll cut it as a back up in the NFL
      8. Hunter Cantwell - Has looked like a solid player when he's subbed for Brohm's injuries but he'll only start full-time for one year and this might just prove that Brohm is overrated due to the Petrino system more than that Cantwell is any good
      9. Ben Olson - He's old and he sucks
      10. Stephen McGee - He just sucks
      11. Bobby Reid - Remember when the Oklahoma State coach went off on a reporter? The story the reporter wrote had to do with Bobby Reid being benched
      12. Rhett Bomar - He kinda sucked at Oklahoma and he still sucks at Sam Houston State

      I mean, wow. Do you see a single good QB on that list? Longshore will be Aaron Rodgers v2.0 but who will be Alex Smith and get drafted first overall simply because everyone else in the draft will be out of the league in three years? Actually, now that I think about it, it'd be pretty funny if Tim Tebow declares as a junior and the only first round options in 2009 are a Meyer product and a Tedford product again. I actually believe Tebow could work out in the NFL, but he'll be an injury risk because of his style of play on top of the transition questions. Colt McCoy is another junior that might declare, but he's been pretty INT prone this year
      Last edited by SchizophrenicBatman; 10-30-2007, 05:58 PM.

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      • #4
        our situation gives me a headache.

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        • #5
          Penn State has stuck with Morelli because Paterno knows that benching him makes his son, the QB coach, look bad.

          Morelli has completed 8-26 passes the past 4 games in which he had to throw the ball 15 yards or more.

          I once thought Morelli would get drafted just on potential. But now, he's proven time and again after the team struggles that he's a selfish crybaby, too.

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          • #6
            I was upset that Dallas cut Matt Moore, but he really wasn't needed. Carolina should give him a shot at starting.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by SchizophrenicBatman View Post
              ok I dont feel like spending 3 hours on these guys but basically they suck. let's see here

              2009 Draft: 2005 Redux?
              2. Chase Holbrook - A poor mans Colt Brennan
              Other way around.


              Nobody cares about your stupid fantasy team.

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              • #8
                We'll see. He's got more of an NFL body and doesn't have that weird 3/4 side-arm throwing motion but they both play in gimmick offenses against the same terrible teams and Brennan puts up better stats. Of course, Colt has more talent around him so who knows. I dont think the risk is worth it for either

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by SchizophrenicBatman View Post
                  ok I dont feel like spending 3 hours on these guys but basically they suck. let's see here

                  2009 Draft: 2005 Redux?

                  1. Nate Longshore - Tedford QB
                  2. Chase Holbrook - A poor mans Colt Brennan
                  3. Todd Boeckman - I actually like him, but he hasn't been pressed to do much in the Ohio State offense. He'll be a bit old when he actually graduates too
                  4. Curtis Painter - Not that great. His stats look good because he's beaten up on the directional schools of Michigan and Illinois. If he has a good senior year he'll go in the first round and be a bust, guaranteed
                  5. Chase Daniel - A midget that can scramble. Maybe he can succeed despite his height, more likely he's the next in a line of good short college QBs who can't cut it in the pros due to their height a la Stefan LeFors
                  6. Graham Harrell - A homeless mans Colt Brennan
                  7. John Parker Wilson - Not even sure he'll cut it as a back up in the NFL
                  8. Hunter Cantwell - Has looked like a solid player when he's subbed for Brohm's injuries but he'll only start full-time for one year and this might just prove that Brohm is overrated due to the Petrino system more than that Cantwell is any good
                  9. Ben Olson - He's old and he sucks
                  10. Stephen McGee - He just sucks
                  11. Bobby Reid - Remember when the Oklahoma State coach went off on a reporter? The story the reporter wrote had to do with Bobby Reid being benched
                  12. Rhett Bomar - He kinda sucked at Oklahoma and he still sucks at Sam Houston State

                  I mean, wow. Do you see a single good QB on that list? Longshore will be Aaron Rodgers v2.0 but who will be Alex Smith and get drafted first overall simply because everyone else in the draft will be out of the league in three years? Actually, now that I think about it, it'd be pretty funny if Tim Tebow declares as a junior and the only first round options in 2009 are a Meyer product and a Tedford product again. I actually believe Tebow could work out in the NFL, but he'll be an injury risk because of his style of play on top of the transition questions. Colt McCoy is another junior that might declare, but he's been pretty INT prone this year

                  Chase Daniel is 6ft and every bit the prospect that Drew Brees was coming out of college.

                  Rhett Bomar has had a pretty good year, completing about 60% of his passes and running for several TDs, you wont find a more physically gifted signal caller anywhere.

                  Tim Tebow, Jake Locker and Matther Stafford are all eligible for the 2009 draft. Its never as bleak as it looks.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Babylon View Post
                    Chase Daniel is 6ft and every bit the prospect that Drew Brees was coming out of college.

                    Rhett Bomar has had a pretty good year, completing about 60% of his passes and running for several TDs, you wont find a more physically gifted signal caller anywhere.

                    Tim Tebow, Jake Locker and Matther Stafford are all eligible for the 2009 draft. Its never as bleak as it looks.
                    I don't want Tebow, he will be a bust. I don't see him developing passing skills worth starting in the NFL.

                    I am pretty sure Daniels plays in the spread, so I have second thoughts about him.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by ShutDwn View Post
                      I don't want Tebow, he will be a bust. I don't see him developing passing skills worth starting in the NFL.

                      I am pretty sure Daniels plays in the spread, so I have second thoughts about him.

                      I think Tebow is improving as a passer, his arm is getting stronger and more accurate, if you dont like him that's fine with me. Missouri lines up with two tightends most of the time so not what you would call your typical spead offense. To me Matthew Stafford would clearly be the best passer of those mentioned and Locker maybe the best overall talent, but i doubt very seriously he would come out in 2009.

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                      • #12
                        Being a decent passer in college isn't saying much, especially in a spread offense. The passes are easy and almost all are effective because of the option of the QB running. That doesn't happen as much in the NFL.

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                        • #13
                          Tebow is the only of that list that can come out next year. Stafford's numbers aren't all that great and Locker is possibly a better runner but a MUCH WORSE passer than Tebow. Bomar is still under 60% completion percentage playing Sam Houston State's schedule btw, it IS as bleak as it looks

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                          • #14
                            Well if we QB in the draft,I like C.Henne of Michigan.

                            Of the FA's I'd go for D.Anderson of Cleveland.Since he's restricted FA,we'd have to give up a draft pick and it would probably take a 2nd to get him similar to what Houston did to get Schaub.No way Quinn sits on the bench much longer with that contract.
                            Last edited by PiedmontPanther; 11-06-2007, 05:46 PM.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by SchizophrenicBatman View Post
                              Tebow is the only of that list that can come out next year. Stafford's numbers aren't all that great and Locker is possibly a better runner but a MUCH WORSE passer than Tebow. Bomar is still under 60% completion percentage playing Sam Houston State's schedule btw, it IS as bleak as it looks
                              They all "can" come out next year. Stafford is to me the best of the three as a passer, i dont really care about his numbers as they drop too many balls there and really dont have much to talk about at the WR position. Locker is night and day as a passer from where he was at the beginning of the year and his receivers are worse than those at Georgia. They all probably should stay in school but all are eligible for 2009 and if they come out all would go very early in round 1.

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