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  • Wagering on the boys

    For those who like to wager m&m's or anything of the sort, this is a writeup from a respected handicapper for what its worth....

    3 Star Selection
    ***DALLAS 24 New England (-5.5) 21
    01:15 PM Pacific, 14-Oct-07
    It's not easy to go against a Patriots team that has won all 5 of
    their games by 17 points or more and by an average of 36-13, but the
    tougher a game is to bet the better that bet usually is. Actually,
    betting Dallas isn't a hard decision to make, as the Cowboys are in a
    great situation this week and there is plenty of line value on the
    side of the Cowboys as well. Dallas was just as impressive as the
    Patriots in the first 4 weeks of the season, winning those 4 games by
    an average score of 38-18 before barely escaping with a win last week
    in Buffalo. That game was not too surprising to me given that the
    Cowboys were in a very negative letdown situation in that game. Now
    the situation favors Dallas, as New England applies to a negative
    56-125-2 ATS road favorite situation and a 71-155-4 ATS scheduling
    angle while Dallas applies to a 211-112-16 ATS statistical indicator
    and a 149-89-8 ATS statistical indicator (the record is 29-8-2 ATS
    when those 2 statistical indicators apply to the same team). You also
    shouldn't be afraid to play against a team that has been playing so
    great in recent weeks, as teams that have won by more than 14 points
    in each of the last 3 weeks are just 2-18-1 ATS when visiting a team
    with a winning percentage of .500 or higher, including 1-8 ATS if the
    hot road team is also unbeaten on the season. Aside from the strong
    situation, my math model also favors Dallas to cover in this game. New
    England has been very good offensively this season, but their 6.6
    yards per play have come against 5 bad defensive teams that would
    combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Dallas has a much better
    offense, as the Cowboys have averaged 6.7 yppl against teams that
    would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. New England's defense is 0.7
    yppl better than average, so the Cowboys have a 0.7 yppl advantage
    over the Pats' stop unit in this game. Dallas rates at 0.2 yppl better
    than average defensively for the season, but they are considerably
    better than that with star LB Greg Ellis back in the lineup after
    missing the first 3 games. Ellis is as good as any defensive player in
    the NFL and he showed his value last season when he was hurt in week
    10. In 9 games with Ellis last season the Cowboys were 0.6 yppl better
    than average, but they were 0.4 yppl worse than average in the 8 games
    that Ellis missed. This season the differential between the 3 games
    Ellis missed and the 2 games he has played has been similar as the
    Cowboys' defense was 0.2 yppl worse than average in those first 3
    games without Ellis while that unit has been 0.8 yppl better than
    average the last 2 weeks with Ellis allowing 3.8 yppl to St. Louis
    and Buffalo attacks that would combine to average 4.6 yppl against an
    average defensive team. New England has a 2.2 points advantage in
    special teams and a 1.8 points advantage in projected turnovers, but
    my math model only favors the Patriots by 2 points in this game.
    With strong situations and good line value, the Cowboys look like a
    good play here. I'll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at +4 points or
    more




    The greastest team of all time...The OKLAHOMA SOONERS!!! http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3849468
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