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  • Originally posted by SINCE1978 View Post
    Everyone can be a prospect "expert" with 3:00 of a You Tube clip ... funny where we have evolved to :o)


    Just b/c I'm in an argumentative mood ...

    CU had Jimmy Smith & Jalil Brown at CB last season, right? (Scott has them rated as the #5 & #12 CB prospects in the whole land)

    CU was the 91st ranked team in the FBS for points against, averaging almost 31 pts against/game. Now I understand this is not a "stat" that is 100% directed at a CB but all those points were not scored from opponents running the football ... 27 TD's via passing to be exact (per cfbstats.com) We all know how BAD Michigan's secondary was in 2010, right? Just AWFUL! Well the wolverines only allowed 21 TD's via the pass in 2010. The secondary led by Smith & Brown allowed 27. Take the CSU game away (Week 1) since they failed to score a TD, & that is 27 TD's through the air in 11 football games on supposedly 2 of the top 12 CB's in the whole country.

    Here are what teams put up on CU ...

    3 CSU
    52 Cal
    13 Hawaii
    27 Georgia
    26 Mizzu
    31 Baylor
    27 Texas Tech
    43 OU
    52 KU
    14 ISU
    36 K St
    45 Huskers

    Ouch, that D sucked & teams passed successfully a TON on them. You Tube that ... & don't say those stats are not relevant to prospects b/c they absolutely are. They are to any NFL GM worth a darn!
    Of course the stats mean something BUT only when placed in proper context IE compared against the pass rush, TOP etc. Each of these stats would have a huge effect on CB performance. Which is another thing real GMs would take a look at. The eye is always a million times greater than stats.
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    • Originally posted by broth223 View Post
      Of course the stats mean something BUT only when placed in proper context IE compared against the pass rush, TOP etc. Each of these stats would have a huge effect on CB performance. Which is another thing real GMs would take a look at. The eye is always a million times greater than stats.
      Ah yes ... the eye test ... Jimmy Smith being 6-2 205 & athletic passes that test for sure! I just found it eye-opening after hearing how most of the local Detroit media & Mich fans heaped on RR/Williams about their awful defense (in particular the back 7). Then after some very basic statistical evaluation find that CU, with 2 top rated CB's, had 6 more TD's thrown on them then Michigan's secondary did last season. 27 passing TD's in 11 games is alarmingly awful.

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      • Originally posted by SINCE1978 View Post
        Ah yes ... the eye test ... Jimmy Smith being 6-2 205 & athletic passes that test for sure! I just found it eye-opening after hearing how most of the local Detroit media & Mich fans heaped on RR/Williams about their awful defense (in particular the back 7). Then after some very basic statistical evaluation find that CU, with 2 top rated CB's, had 6 more TD's thrown on them then Michigan's secondary did last season. 27 passing TD's in 11 games is alarmingly awful.
        Well said. Not a fan of Jimmy Smith unless it is in the 30+ range.

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        • Smith was targeted 20 times and allowed 11 completions last year. The Raider's defense has been crap but people still realize how good Nmadi plays. Can you name any Colorado DL or LBs? You can put a top end CB on the field with 10 crappy players and the defense will still suck.

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          • So, he gave up 55% completion? Sold.

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            • Only 2 first downs. Nothing deep.
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              • Detroit needs a few more tacklers in their secondary. GB showed this lost art in the NFL last night,stopping Pitt on some plays that could have gone for bigger chunks but did not. I believe MM/Schwartz are headed this way since former finesse cover CB's like Buchanan & Wade have been sent packing. If the consensus is Brandon Harris is the tackling/run supporting CB in this draft than I do not see him a reach at 13. (This is assuming he is impressive at the combine)

                ** edit ** I understand the recent chatter is on Jimmy Smith ... he seems like an awfully polarized prospect so maybe it is best we stay away?! But if Harris is the real deal #3 rated CB after the combine (behind PP & Prince) it's a mute point on Smith's skills, Harris would be our guy.
                Last edited by SINCE1978; 02-07-2011, 08:16 AM.

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                • I really don't think we're going CB #13 ... Schwartz has never shown to really value CBs very highly in the draft ... their best CB in Tennessee was a late round pick in Finnegan ... he seems to really like Aaron Berry, too ... if we re-sign Houston ... a trio of Houston, Smith, and Berry isn't all that bad ... plus -- we can always go out and sign some more good DBs in FA ... Richard Marshall please?

                  I think with where we sit, unless we trade back, it makes the most sense to nab a DE. We'll see .... for once our pick is a mystery and not a top 3.

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                  • I don't necessarily *think* we'll go CB at #13, but it's a possibility because it's a major need and there could be a guy there who fits this defense's style. Schwartz and Cunningham want tough dudes who will stick their nose into the run and jam their receivers hard. They are building this defense around a dominant front four, and if your top three CBs can all stick the WRs hard and delay those routes, the pass rush well get a sack or force a bad throw 80% of the time. Remember what they all said about Wade? Someone up here said he was a finesse CB like Buchanon, but that's not true at all. The coaches were raving about him all training camp because he was by far the best press corner on the roster. They fully expected him to play well. He was everything they wanted. The reasons he failed were well documented by Tom Kowalski.

                    That's also why they drafted Spievey. He was brutal on the LOS and really knew how to physically control the WR. It turned out that his speed just wasn't good enough. Look at the guys Schwartz had in Tennessee, like Finnegan. Scrappy fighters who slap the WR around and then have the speed to chase and recover. That's what they want. So keep your eye on all these guys at the Combine. Look at Amukamara's speed. Look at Smith's and Harris's speed. Look for all the CB in this draft who are known for their press-man skills and then look at how their speed times. I bet those will be the guys tops on the Lions' board.

                    Given the overall look of the league-wide big board, I don't think a CB will entice Mayhew at #13. He won't reach, I guarantee it. If they want Harris but have him rated in the 20s, they won't take him. At this stage I actually kind of expect a versatile DL to be the pick. There's just so many of them in this draft with some tremendous skills. It'll be hard for them to pass up a guy who can step in and be the #1 rotational sub at every position on the line [like Cameron Jordan or Christian Ballard, for example].

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                    • Originally posted by hybridremix View Post
                      I don't necessarily *think* we'll go CB at #13, but it's a possibility because it's a major need and there could be a guy there who fits this defense's style. Schwartz and Cunningham want tough dudes who will stick their nose into the run and jam their receivers hard. They are building this defense around a dominant front four, and if your top three CBs can all stick the WRs hard and delay those routes, the pass rush well get a sack or force a bad throw 80% of the time. Remember what they all said about Wade? Someone up here said he was a finesse CB like Buchanon, but that's not true at all. The coaches were raving about him all training camp because he was by far the best press corner on the roster. They fully expected him to play well. He was everything they wanted. The reasons he failed were well documented by Tom Kowalski.

                      That's also why they drafted Spievey. He was brutal on the LOS and really knew how to physically control the WR. It turned out that his speed just wasn't good enough. Look at the guys Schwartz had in Tennessee, like Finnegan. Scrappy fighters who slap the WR around and then have the speed to chase and recover. That's what they want. So keep your eye on all these guys at the Combine. Look at Amukamara's speed. Look at Smith's and Harris's speed. Look for all the CB in this draft who are known for their press-man skills and then look at how their speed times. I bet those will be the guys tops on the Lions' board.

                      Given the overall look of the league-wide big board, I don't think a CB will entice Mayhew at #13. He won't reach, I guarantee it. If they want Harris but have him rated in the 20s, they won't take him. At this stage I actually kind of expect a versatile DL to be the pick. There's just so many of them in this draft with some tremendous skills. It'll be hard for them to pass up a guy who can step in and be the #1 rotational sub at every position on the line [like Cameron Jordan or Christian Ballard, for example].
                      So what you are saying is Mayhew is signing (Wade/Henry/Buchanan) & drafting (Spievey) DB's that were like him when he played ... smart that will fight you, but slow & not great hands. :o) (hahaha)

                      I agree that Detroit is building a solid front 4, it's already (almost) there. However, currently our "press corners" are NOT press corners imo. Alphonso Smith & Chris Houston are not physical CB's. Both are fast, can break on the ball well, mirror receivers well etc ... but throwing punches at the get off on WR, or blitzing effectively, or coming up & blowing up a tackle on a RB ... not those 2. I think that is more what Schwartz/Cunningham want in a CB but have not PICKED one yet ... therefor ... I am wanting some home grown talent drafted at the CB position please!! It has not been addressed in MM's drafts, it's almost a bizzare strategy it's that obvious. They are all FA's or wire guys: Buchanan, Wade, Anthony Henry, Word-Daniels, Houston, Smith, Berry & on & on ... I just want to see Detroit draft a freak'n CB with one of these impact picks. Get a legit, #1 CB so the revolving door at the position stops once & for all. You make some solid points but I'm just say'n, with Willie Young, Jackson, McBide, Avril, KVB, Suh (sort of) do we need another DE that they pay premier $$ for?

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                      • Originally posted by SINCE1978 View Post
                        So what you are saying is Mayhew is signing (Wade/Henry/Buchanan) & drafting (Spievey) DB's that were like him when he played ... smart that will fight you, but slow & not great hands. :o) (hahaha)

                        I agree that Detroit is building a solid front 4, it's already (almost) there. However, currently our "press corners" are NOT press corners imo. Alphonso Smith & Chris Houston are not physical CB's. Both are fast, can break on the ball well, mirror receivers well etc ... but throwing punches at the get off on WR, or blitzing effectively, or coming up & blowing up a tackle on a RB ... not those 2. I think that is more what Schwartz/Cunningham want in a CB but have not PICKED one yet ... therefor ... I am wanting some home grown talent drafted at the CB position please!! It has not been addressed in MM's drafts, it's almost a bizzare strategy it's that obvious. They are all FA's or wire guys: Buchanan, Wade, Anthony Henry, Word-Daniels, Houston, Smith, Berry & on & on ... I just want to see Detroit draft a freak'n CB with one of these impact picks. Get a legit, #1 CB so the revolving door at the position stops once & for all. You make some solid points but I'm just say'n, with Willie Young, Jackson, McBide, Avril, KVB, Suh (sort of) do we need another DE that they pay premier $$ for?
                        MM has employed the BPA strategy and I, for one, have had no issues with any of his drafts to date. Our 4 game win streak to end the season ****** us in the CB lottery. It's going to be LB, DE or OT in round 1 unless we trade down.
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                        • Mayhew won't shy away from attempting to move up for one of the two top CB's. Would you be ok with losing a 2nd rd pick for PP or PA? At this point, I would be ok with it. Getting one of those guys could make this defense amazing.

                          1. PP or PA
                          3. LB Mason Foster
                          4. WR Jeff Maehl
                          5. OL/Jumbo RB/LB
                          6. "
                          7. "

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                          • Originally posted by noondog View Post
                            MM has employed the BPA strategy and I, for one, have had no issues with any of his drafts to date. Our 4 game win streak to end the season ****** us in the CB lottery. It's going to be LB, DE or OT in round 1 unless we trade down.
                            I agree with BPA strategy if you either a) have an absolute spoil of riches up & down your roster (ie watch New England this draft) or b) are so void of talent you could throw a dart at a prospect board to get ANY talented player (ie the roster Mayhew inherited from Millen) :o)
                            Detroit (kudos to MM the past 2 seasons) is now in a position where strategy can shift to filling positions of need. I go back to my example of if Cam Newton was on Detroit's overall talent board #1 remaining player available at 13 would they take him over say Brandon Harris or Akeem Ayers? I would not ... BPA strategy says yes.

                            Originally posted by cotts1 View Post
                            Mayhew won't shy away from attempting to move up for one of the two top CB's. Would you be ok with losing a 2nd rd pick for PP or PA? At this point, I would be ok with it. Getting one of those guys could make this defense amazing.

                            1. PP or PA
                            3. LB Mason Foster
                            4. WR Jeff Maehl
                            5. OL/Jumbo RB/LB
                            6. "
                            7. "
                            No. Just not a fan of chosing to pick in the top 5-8 when you don't HAVE to. (I like Foster & Maehl though) :o)

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                            • Trade down, pick up another pick or two and get some more starting caliber players on that defense.
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                              • BPA strategy, imo, is not absolute. I think a lot of team that do BPA of course tweak it too their roster. I.e. Pats wouldn't take Locker in first, or a team like Washington with Carlos Rogers and Deangelo Hall would not take a BPA corner. However, if PP fell to them at #10 then they would/should take him. I think the only way to do BPA is to consider value and be flexible.

                                I do like the balance BPA approach it seems like Mayhew takes, for instance of corner (or LB) is way to much of a reach at #13 (don't think so, think Brandon Harris is gonna move up draft boards). then go with a better value pick, BPA at a position that is somewhat a need or increased depth at the position will add significant value to the team (DE).
                                Last edited by Fred Savage; 02-07-2011, 04:44 PM.

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