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My Money Is On Crabtree at #4

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  • #16
    Originally posted by gpngc View Post
    Our interest in Crabtree has been FAR more subtle than our interest in Sanchez. Us Crab proponents had to dig. And it hasn't been consistent at all. King and Brandt just brought it up this week.
    Actually, our interest in Crabtree has been anything but subtle. Several times Mora has raved about Crabtree to the media, whereas the entire organization hasn't said a word about how much they like Sanchez. Take what you want from this.


    A) He was coming off an injury so couldn't work out until the 11th hour.
    B) He worked out with the stress fracture and didn't even know it. Playing through the injury. That's decent work ethic. You don't just wake up one day and become a great WR to score 40 TDs in your first two years a wide receiver at the FBS level. His work ethic is fine. The kid is a flat-out special athlete (Bob Knight recruited him to play PG). He's not Mike Williams.
    Actually, Crabtree was quoted as saying he wasn't ready for the 40 because he had only been training for it for two weeks. He said that the ankle hadn't bothered him during the season, and it wasn't bothering him then. So again, take what you want from this.

    This is your only legitimate argument against selecting Crab at #4. But you go on to say "Monroe will play." I say "Crab will play". It's much easier to put a natural flanker in the slot than a natural LT at RG. And I still think there's a chance we release Branch. I was one of the few who alluded to us getting rid of JP earlier in the offseason. It's still possible. PLUS- where's he gonna play THIS YEAR? Again- that's a decent point. But you're outlook is so short-sighted. All our WRs are old, injury-prone, or terrible. That is a fact. Crab may not be the best pick for THIS SEASON. But our #4 pick definitely won't be best for THIS SEASON because of the long-term financial commitment you want someone who's going to be an impact player for the FUTURE. QB or Crab is that. If we really wanted the guy to help us the most THIS SEASON, we'd go with a RB or Alex Mack and pay them 60+ mil. They'd step in right away and help the team more than Sanchez or Crab would, but that's just not a good decision for the long-term health of your franchise.
    I'll give you that Branch is injury-prone, but saying that Burleson and Housh are old/terrible is really an overstatement. Burleson is 27-28(?), and Housh is 32. Bobby Engram played at a high level for us for years, and you have to remember that Housh didn't play a lot of football early on, so he hasn't taken as many hits as your typical 32 year old WR. Burleson is inconsistent, but when he's on, he's special. He is the only legitimate deep threat they have had in years. He is not terrible. Their depth sucks, but seriously, how many teams have WR core's that go 5 deep without a significant drop off?

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Crabtree almost always had an injury of some kind during his college career? Guys will play through it in college because otherwise, they don't get paid. Professional athletes stub their toe and sit out two weeks. Is Crabtree going to pull a D.J. Hackett and start having numerous amounts of ankle problems?

    You're correct. And if the Rams do take Monroe over Smith, I'll concede that there's a lot better chance that we'll go OT at #4. But in all likelihood, Smith is going #2 which makes your point moot.
    Actually there's a little cause for debate in my mind over who they should take. Smith is by far the more gifted athlete, but Monroe is better in pass protection right now. They may be tempted by Monroe because he is more polished.

    They are not stupid enough to want Monroe to play guard. You said in this thread that "Locklear isn't a LT!". That's not true because he has all the characteristics of a LT, is a proven professional and actually played LT. Eugene Monroe ISN'T a ZBS OG (or RT I'd argue)! is what I'm going to emphatically say. I'll concede that "you don't know that" is an acceptable rebuttal to my opinion because I've never seen him play guard but the projection is simply not pretty based on his strengths and weaknesses.

    Locklear JUST signed a long-term extension and is coming off an injury so there is 0 chance he is traded.
    If they take Monroe, he will be on the field starting day. It will probably be at G, barring an injury. Listen, Locklear may be able to play LT, but your asking him to play out of position. I'm sorry, not many RT's are able to make the transition to LT successfully. Locklear gets beat way too often by the speed rush, and Jones, having lost two steps and having the knee injury, is probably still better than Locklear in his prime. LT (or RT for a left handed QB) is the second most valuable position on the field. They are the guy who has to be a wall. Locklear struggles against team's second best pass rushers. What is he going to do when he starts going up against guys like Osi Umenyora? Also, we know how fickle this league is. Locklear could just as easily stay at RT making LT money as he could actually be moved to LT. He has also been injury-prone the last couple of years, so banking on him to be the starting LT isn't that good of an idea.

    At the end of this though, I am tired of debating who they are gonna pick. I just want the draft to happen today so we can get it over with. The player they select won't even make as big of an impact as the person they select in the second round (hopefully Donald Brown). Ruskell also has a tendency to go with the safe pick, or the guy they can bring along slowly.

    I personally view their pick as the opportunity to secure their long term future. The Seahawks need to take Smith, Monroe, Sanchez, or Stafford, because really, when is the next time they are going to have a shot at drafting one of the two most important players on a football field? The answer to that is when Hasselbeck or Jones go down to injury (much like this year) or retire. Either way, we're left with a big hole at the two most important positions for years.

    If they take Stafford/Sanchez now, and assume that Hasselbeck has two-three years left in his prime. He will be ready to start by the time Hasselbeck retires. He will also have two-three years to learn how to be a professional QB. Same with Smith/Monroe and Jones.

    UPDATE/EDIT: I was driving home and listening to the Seahawks press conference about the draft on 710 ESPN. They didn't really say much other than avoid questions and say that there has been a lot of lying, perhaps more so than normal, going on this year.

    Also, John Clayton laid out a strategy that, if the Seahawks actually followed it, I would be okay with them drafting Crabtree.

    1. Tell Crabtree he is only going to be playing on 35-40% of the snaps.
    2. Have Burleson, Branch, and Housh mentor him.
    3. If he starts being immature, bench him and reduce his snaps to about 20%.

    Kinda drastic, and probably not the most effective way, but at the end of the day, this would force him to either grow up or rebel further.
    Last edited by summond822; 04-23-2009, 02:46 PM. Reason: update
    Video games keep me sane

    University of Washington Huskies: 7-6

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    • #17
      I really don't like double posting, but this is something that I was going to bring up months ago, but never did. I know I said I'm tired of debating, but this is something that I just remembered when I was talking with my friend and it got me kinda fired up.

      When was the last time a red-shirt sophomore WR, or at any other position, actually succeeded in the league? I cannot think of a single WR who has managed to succeed. Korean Robinson failed because of maturity issues (he's remade himself, but his best years are behind him), Troy Williamson (he was a RS soph right?) didn't have the work ethic. They come out as RS Soph, because the game is so easy for them. They take things for granted and they never are forced to develop a work ethic that will be required at the pro level. They make bad decisions because they haven't ever needed to do anything else.

      Apparently I'm the only one who seems to think that Crabtree is going to have attitude problems. If Ruskell even suspects (like I do) that Crabtree is going to be a diva WR, you can say good-bye to drafting him.

      They brought up interesting points today on the radio. The reason why college WR's fizzle out so much in the pros (40% first rounders) is because it's more physical, they're not playing in run-and-shoot offenses anymore, and they actually have to work to get open. Crabtree played against Big 12 defenses that are not very good, he played in an offense where he wasn't required to be physical and block or work very hard to get open. The only thing he has right now that translates well to the NFL, at the moment, is his hands.

      I get the feeling that Curry is going to be there at 4. I think Kansas City is going to take Tyson Jackson, because a defensive lineman, even the 5 tech, makes a bigger impact on a game than a LB. So if Curry is there and Crabtree is there, expect Curry to be taken over Crabtree.

      EDIT: Crabtree has one of the lowest questions attempted on the Wonderlic, but his percentage right was pretty high. He got a 15/22. Only 15 WR's out of 44 had a better percentage than him, but notable ones include Brian Robiskie, Darius Heyward-Bey, and Ramses Bardin.


      Great link that was in another thread. Anonymous scouts perspective on players.

      Here are some of the things that actually apply to this thread:
      "We did a study on receivers," said Eric DeCosta, the Baltimore Ravens' director of player personnel. "If you're a junior receiver and you come out, there's a high bust potential."

      In the last 12 drafts, 40 wide receivers have been selected in the first two rounds. By subjective analysis, eight became exceptional players whereas 17 turned out to be wasted picks.

      The list of busts taken with top-10 choices included Troy Williamson and Mike Williams in 2005, Reggie Williams in '04, Charles Rogers in '03, David Terrell in '01, Travis Taylor in '00 and David Boston in '99.

      Among the underclassmen hits were Randy Moss in 1998, Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin '03, Larry Fitzgerald in '04, Santonio Holmes in '06 and Calvin Johnson in '07. However, vice president Tom Modrak of the Buffalo Bills pointed out that Calvin Johnson's rookie season in Detroit was something less than stellar.

      "Just in general terms, receivers are a lot tougher than people think to get into the system quick," Modrak said. "It always seems so simple to the fan. And with underclassmen it's magnified."
      I think that we can all agree that Crabtree is going to have to develop into an exceptional player to become worthy of this pick. His chances are only 20% of actually becoming an exceptional player, a 42.5% chance of being a wasted pick, and having a 37.5% chance of becoming an average player.

      Chances are, unlike what everyone is thinking, Crabtree won't make an immediate impact. There is a reason why you wait until the third year a receiver is in the league before you take him in a fantasy league. Why? That's usually how long it takes for a WR to become high impact.

      From DeCosta's vantage point, the only receivers without flaws are Crabtree and Ohio State's Brian Robiskie, the leading senior and a solid second-round choice.
      Big words of praise for both Crabtree and Robiskie.

      1. MICHAEL CRABTREE Texas Tech 6-1 215 4.57 1
      High school QB from Dallas who broke Larry Fitzgerald's two-year NCAA record for receiving TDs of 34 with 41. "He is an exceptional athlete with much fluidity in his route-running," Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff said. "He shows the ability to catch all around his body and make the acrobatic grab." Two-year statistics included 231 catches for 3,127 yards (13.5 average). "The only thing you don't see is great speed," San Francisco personnel director Trent Baalke said. "But there have been great receivers that don't have great speed, from Michael Irvin to Cris Carter. I think he has a natural feel. He does a good job with his limited experience at the position of understanding spacing and coming back to the football, playing the ball and not letting it play him." Has extremely long arms (34 inches) and uses them to attack the ball. Scored 15 on the Wonderlic intelligence test. Tremendous after the catch. "He's not Calvin Johnson but he's similar to Braylon Edwards," one scout said. "He's got a few things that are concerns. He's got to keep himself in physical condition, learn the work ethic, separate the entourage and get his foot healthy."
      I highlighted the concerns, because ultimately it has a lot to do with him maturing. He has great potential, but is he gonna keep his head on straight?
      Last edited by summond822; 04-23-2009, 04:15 PM.
      Video games keep me sane

      University of Washington Huskies: 7-6

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      • #18
        Originally posted by summond822 View Post
        As you said, Crabtree hasn't been in for a visit, but Sanchez, Curry, and Beanie Wells all have been. Crabtree has scheduled visits with 4 teams, but not with the Seahawks. I seriously doubt that they aren't going to visit the person that they are going to select
        Actually that happens quite frequently, the OP makes a good point...If your NOT interested in Crabtree, what would you want to do? Make everyone behind you think you ARE, the fact they they aren't should say something.


        Plenty of teams draft players they didn't visit with, and if I had to guess I'd say it shows your interest in Crabtree more then anything...He's been linked anywhere from 3-10, no way you don't put out a huge smokescreen about being interested in him if your actually not.





        Originally posted by Scott Wright
        I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.

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        • #19
          I highly doubt Seattle is trying to hide it's pick in fear someone would move above them (Cleveland). The odds of a team forfeiting a 2nd rounder then paying a wide receiver 60 million dollars with 27 mil guaranteed is so unlikely it's barely worth discussing (that's based on Calvin's contract 2 years ago).

          If you're picking in the top 10 pretty much all smokescreens are there to get someone to make a trade up with you.

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          • #20
            alright since all this talk is on #4, who do we take with our 2nd round pick? if clay matthews is there would you take him?

            Props to BoneKrusher for the sig
            Hit me up on XBOX Live: totallynotalex

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            • #21
              Paul Silvi said on Path to the Draft today that Crabtree is the pick. Interesting.

              In round 2 I really really really really want Rashad Johnson. I think there is a 99% chance he is the BPA (yes I have him higher than Matthews) and he fills a HUGE need (**** you Brian Russel).

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              • #22
                Originally posted by summond822 View Post

                When was the last time a red-shirt sophomore WR, or at any other position, actually succeeded in the league?


                I highlighted the concerns, because ultimately it has a lot to do with him maturing. He has great potential, but is he gonna keep his head on straight?
                All I'm doing is answering your question here, nothing more: Larry Fitzgerald.

                And, you would highlight only the concerns.

                Don't worry, we'll look back on this debate and laugh when Crabtree is a star WR for us in two years.:D
                "I'm Ko Simpson!"

                - Ko Simpson

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Cicero View Post
                  Paul Silvi said on Path to the Draft today that Crabtree is the pick. Interesting.

                  In round 2 I really really really really want Rashad Johnson. I think there is a 99% chance he is the BPA (yes I have him higher than Matthews) and he fills a HUGE need (**** you Brian Russel).
                  Rashad Johnson is a 3rd/4th rounder masquerading as a 2nd on draft websites. He also had some off-the-field issues. It's highly unlikely we take him at #37.

                  I think we're trading up from #37 for a RB personally. If we stay put I'd guess Chung, Unger, Mack, or Delmas.
                  "I'm Ko Simpson!"

                  - Ko Simpson

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by gpngc View Post
                    Rashad Johnson is a 3rd/4th rounder masquerading as a 2nd on draft websites. He also had some off-the-field issues. It's highly unlikely we take him at #37.

                    I think we're trading up from #37 for a RB personally. If we stay put I'd guess Chung, Unger, Mack, or Delmas.
                    I guess we'll have to disagree. I think he's first round talent but is being overlooked because he isn't 2 inches taller and doesn't have a blazing 40.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Cicero View Post
                      I guess we'll have to disagree. I think he's first round talent but is being overlooked because he isn't 2 inches taller and doesn't have a blazing 40.
                      Prototypical Ruskell second-rounder. However, if Donald Brown is somehow there in the second, there's no way we pass on him. He is exactly the type of high character guy that Ruskell loves and he would add quality depth to a team that desperately needs it at RB. However, I tend to agree that Rashad Johnson will be available in the third, and if it looks like he's about to come off the board, Ruskell would probably trade up for him.

                      Also, look for Patrick Chung or Michael Hamlin to be targets in the second and third round respectively.

                      HawkEye: Clay Matthews won't be there when the Seahawks pick. If he was there, I'd say there is a chance they take him, but he has worked himself to being a first rounder. Also, Clay Matthews is more of a prototypical 3-4 OLB, not so much a 4-3.

                      Cicero: I'm sorry, I watched that part, and Silvi is just speculating. He has no idea, and he went with his best guess. I'd trust someone like Farnsworth over Silvi. Also, Todd McShay is still saying that the Seahawks are going to take Sanchez. The other day he said there was an 80% chance they took him.

                      gpngc: I just want the draft to happen...if Crabtree is the pick, I won't be very happy, but I would accept it. Still holding out hope for Curry.
                      Video games keep me sane

                      University of Washington Huskies: 7-6

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by gpngc View Post
                        All I'm doing is answering your question here, nothing more: Larry Fitzgerald.

                        And, you would highlight only the concerns.

                        Don't worry, we'll look back on this debate and laugh when Crabtree is a star WR for us in two years.:D
                        I think the rest of the league will be laughing at you guys when you have 180 million dollars invested in a sorry receiving core.

                        With Crabs and Hous do we really need to cover anyone after 15 yards? Neither one of those guys are threat down the field.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by espnhatesthe49ers View Post
                          With Crabs and Hous do we really need to cover anyone after 15 yards? Neither one of those guys are threat down the field.
                          Neither is Brandon Marshall or Anquan Boldin but would you have any objections to them?



                          SI's Peter King has heard from "sources he trusts" that the Seahawks will choose between Michael Crabtree and Aaron Curry at No. 4.
                          Mark Sanchez is also a possibility, but it sounds like Seahawks president Tim Ruskell has had second thoughts about drafting a developmental quarterback.
                          Source: SI.com
                          More info about Crabtree.
                          Last edited by LonghornsLegend; 04-24-2009, 02:31 PM.





                          Originally posted by Scott Wright
                          I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            ^^

                            Arizona has Fitzgerald and Denver has Eddie Royal to stretch the field. They have the Ying and the Yang. There's nothing wrong with possession receivers when they're complimented by someone who can get deep.

                            You're going to have 90 million dollars tied up in 2 strictly possession receivers. Have fun with that.

                            You guys have completely forgotten what made you guys a powerhouse. Rather than beefing the line and reestablishing a running attack you're very, very poorly attempting to create a dynamic receiving core, and obviously you guys have no clue how to do that. Evidence by Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, and now pairing up 2 guys with little ability to stretch the field.
                            Last edited by espnhatesthe49ers; 04-24-2009, 05:33 PM.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by espnhatesthe49ers View Post
                              ^^

                              Arizona has Fitzgerald and Denver has Eddie Royal to stretch the field. They have the Ying and the Yang. There's nothing wrong with possession receivers when they're complimented by someone who can get deep.

                              You're going to have 90 million dollars tied up in 2 strictly possession receivers. Have fun with that.

                              You guys have completely forgotten what made you guys a powerhouse. Rather than beefing the line and reestablishing a running attack you're very, very poorly attempting to create a dynamic receiving core, and obviously you guys have no clue how to do that. Evidence by Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, and now pairing up 2 guys with little ability to stretch the field.
                              I don't think that Ruskell has forgotten what made this team successful. Getting to the opposing team's quarterback with a fast, small defense, and controlling the clock and maintaining long drives on offense. The game's we won this last year were games were we had more than 4 sacks, except for maybe one we loss.

                              Everyone is just speculating about Crabtree and all of this talk about bringing in a player to play immediately automatically makes everyone look at Crabtree. However, the Seahawks have taken extensive looks at Chris Wells. He would make an instant impact, probably a larger one than Crabtree, since RB's don't have near the learning curve that WR's do.

                              Also, when Patrick Kerney went down, we lost all semblance of a pass rush. They may intrigued by someone like Brian Orakpo or Everrette Brown (who I think is better than Orakpo), to come in as the long term replacement to Kerney.

                              Ruskell is also known to reach for players. He may decide to shock everyone and take the other Ohio State prospect that fits us, Malcolm Jenkins. I've been so absorbed lately with Crabtree, Curry, & Sanchez, I completely went away from looking at Ruskell's tendencies.

                              Also, several people are trying to quote Ruskell as saying lately, something along the lines of the Seahawks will not take a quarterback @ 4. I listened to his press conference yesterday. He said (as close to possible as I can get),
                              Originally posted by Tim Ruskell
                              [on players sitting out for a year]That's a given if you take a QB and you have a QB, that's just the way it has to be. At any of those other positions though, you have to have a plan. When is he gonna get on the field, who's he gonna beat out, and how quickly is that gonna happen. And you have to know that, and you wanna have everyone adhere to that plan. We've been burned by that in the pass when we didn't discuss the plan for the player, and he's kinda languished on the bench and he never got his shot. And the guys there ended up being okay, and that's how you get a bust. Let's hear the plan, and if it's not good enough, then that's probably not the guy.
                              Asked if they could afford to sit a QB for two years, Ruskell replied
                              Sure, we wouldn't be the first ones to do that.

                              Matt Hasselbeck has also said that, if the Seahawks brought in a quarterback, that he would have to sit for a couple of years. Perhaps the Seahawks have already told him that they planned to take Sanchez. I dunno, there's really so many just little things you can go back and look at and kinda get clues about how much subterfuge the Seahawks are actually participating in.

                              If they do not manage to convince other team's that they are going to take Sanchez, and other team's believe they can get him @ 8, the Hawks may decide to take him just to prove they aren't bluffing. Maybe forcing someone like Washington to make a trade for him. Perhaps drafting Chris Wells at 13 and then doing a swap?

                              EDIT: Here's the press conference from 710 ESPN. The actual press conference starts a little after the 21 minute mark. There is a lot of quotes that I'd like to put up, but there are a lot of em, and I'm kinda tired right now, so I'll probably throw them in the draft discussion thread tomorrow.
                              Last edited by summond822; 04-24-2009, 10:35 PM.
                              Video games keep me sane

                              University of Washington Huskies: 7-6

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by espnhatesthe49ers View Post
                                ^^

                                Arizona has Fitzgerald and Denver has Eddie Royal to stretch the field. They have the Ying and the Yang. There's nothing wrong with possession receivers when they're complimented by someone who can get deep.
                                Well, that might make more sense if both of those WR's didn't have 100 receptions and huge seasons before Fitzgerald or Royal ever showed up.





                                Originally posted by Scott Wright
                                I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.

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