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  • good weather in the SF Bay Area now for a chg. in the winter rainy season, we can take a wk to dry out from the rains.

    Still have to climb around the backyd. & pick up all the palm fronds that fell out of the huge palm tree in my neighbor's yd...... stupid winds.

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    • Originally posted by proshoota25 View Post
      could possibly be another one coming middle of next week...
      Yeah, we've been getting dumped on here on. Running out of places to put the stuff sort of. Lucky some of it melted off last week.

      R.I.P. Junior Seau

      Comment


      • Originally posted by proshoota25 View Post
        this is quite good my friend. i tend to agree with your analysis of the GFS, however, it is probably one of the more accurate models when it comes to predicting winter storms (specifically Nor'easters.) 12Z GFS run was a little different than yesterdays runs..... tracks seems to be further to the southeast, which means less snow here in central RI. let me ask you.... where on the net do you watch the Canadian and European models?
        You see, I like the GFS, its just that when you get around 5-3 days out from the storms arrival, it tends to waver back and forth a lot. I think its greatest strength (having lots of information that it pulls together) is its greatest weakness in that time frame. When its a week or so out, and the data is pointing towards a higher possibility of a system, it'll pick up on that, but in that time frame, there are always little tidbits that seem to pull it off course until the few days before the storm arrives, when the data is in agreement more. Its good for figuring out approximately where and when these types of storms will be a week in advance or so, loses it in that 5-3 day prior time frame, then dials everything right back in when its getting closer to when it'll arrive. Tomorrow I expect it will start to gravitate more toward the Nor'easter again, as last I checked the Canadian model, it was still right in the zone for what would bring a real solid Nor'easter in my area.

        I get the Canadian off of here:
        http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model.../global_e.html

        And the European off of here:
        http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmw...expanddiv=menu

        I check them out on other sites as well, but those two are my favorites for each.
        Nanna Bryndís Hilmarsdóttir is a goddess

        Rest in Peace, themaninblack

        Comment


        • Originally posted by eaglesalltheway View Post
          You see, I like the GFS, its just that when you get around 5-3 days out from the storms arrival, it tends to waver back and forth a lot. I think its greatest strength (having lots of information that it pulls together) is its greatest weakness in that time frame. When its a week or so out, and the data is pointing towards a higher possibility of a system, it'll pick up on that, but in that time frame, there are always little tidbits that seem to pull it off course until the few days before the storm arrives, when the data is in agreement more. Its good for figuring out approximately where and when these types of storms will be a week in advance or so, loses it in that 5-3 day prior time frame, then dials everything right back in when its getting closer to when it'll arrive. Tomorrow I expect it will start to gravitate more toward the Nor'easter again, as last I checked the Canadian model, it was still right in the zone for what would bring a real solid Nor'easter in my area.

          I get the Canadian off of here:
          http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model.../global_e.html

          And the European off of here:
          http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmw...expanddiv=menu

          I check them out on other sites as well, but those two are my favorites for each.
          totally agree with everything you said. you have a pretty extensive knowledge of the models. i just wanted to see what sites u used for those because I am starting my own weather website that has a forecasting section. Ill make sure when I am done to give you a link.

          Thanks to BoneKrusher for this amazing sig!

          Go Gators/Pats/Celts/Red Sox!

          Comment


          • Originally posted by proshoota25 View Post
            totally agree with everything you said. you have a pretty extensive knowledge of the models. i just wanted to see what sites u used for those because I am starting my own weather website that has a forecasting section. Ill make sure when I am done to give you a link.
            Thanks man, I would definitely appreciate that link when its up.
            Nanna Bryndís Hilmarsdóttir is a goddess

            Rest in Peace, themaninblack

            Comment


            • GFS/GEM/ECMWF models in agreement about BIG storm on Wednesday.... NAM seems to be the outlier at this point. We shall see as we get closer to Wednesday.

              ^^^This is as of 00Z Monday (Technically, Sunday night).... Southern New England might get slammed

              Thanks to BoneKrusher for this amazing sig!

              Go Gators/Pats/Celts/Red Sox!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by proshoota25 View Post
                GFS/GEM/ECMWF models in agreement about BIG storm on Wednesday.... NAM seems to be the outlier at this point. We shall see as we get closer to Wednesday.

                ^^^This is as of 00Z Monday (Technically, Sunday night).... Southern New England might get slammed
                I just finished looking over these, looks preety good for big snow near my area as well. Some of the areas that have been getting dumped on should see a lot more, but also the areas that haven't seen the brunt of the storms (my area and a little to the west) look to be in the areas that'll get slammed pretty hard. Maybe not as much as southern NE like you said, but for the most part, we've been spared big snow in this area, and its looking right now that if it would indeed stay all snow, my area could see a foot or more, with the worst areas getting 18" and up if it comes together right.

                As weird as this sounds, this storm will actually be a little easier predict than most of the earlier storms this winter (particualrly the Christmas storm), as there shouldn't be those concentrated, narrow bands that storm had. It looks like it'll be a wider swath of the heavier snow. And with the blocking highs in place slowing it down, the places that get dumped on are really going to get hit hard.
                Nanna Bryndís Hilmarsdóttir is a goddess

                Rest in Peace, themaninblack

                Comment


                • More snow for Southern New England? Crap. I'm one of the few people that isn't completely sick of it yet. It's been as bad as I can remember here. More snow could be fun provided there's no class for people I hang out with and I have a bountiful supply of video games and crucial amenities.

                  The sleet storm last week was the worst of it. Driving in that thing is a nightmare even for someone who has been conditioned to just push the accelerator in four wheel drive and not give a ****. Almost got in two accidents that day and at one point completely fish tailed because some dickwad ran me into a significantly patch of slush/ice.

                  But yeah, how bad we talking for all this fellas? Blizzard conditions?

                  R.I.P. Junior Seau

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by ElectricEye View Post
                    More snow for Southern New England? Crap. I'm one of the few people that isn't completely sick of it yet. It's been as bad as I can remember here. More snow could be fun provided there's no class for people I hang out with and I have a bountiful supply of video games and crucial amenities.

                    The sleet storm last week was the worst of it. Driving in that thing is a nightmare even for someone who has been conditioned to just push the accelerator in four wheel drive and not give a ****. Almost got in two accidents that day and at one point completely fish tailed because some dickwad ran me into a significantly patch of slush/ice.

                    But yeah, how bad we talking for all this fellas? Blizzard conditions?
                    where in Mass are you? well blizzard conditions are certainly possible... im just wondering if winds will be sustained at 35 mph.... but some intense snowfall looks to be the case (not if ur near cape cod and over towards the new beford area... some mixing will go on there possibily, cutting down on accumulations....) over a foot is certainly a possibility
                    Last edited by proshoota25; 01-23-2011, 11:57 PM.

                    Thanks to BoneKrusher for this amazing sig!

                    Go Gators/Pats/Celts/Red Sox!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by proshoota25 View Post
                      where in Mass are you? well blizzard conditions are certainly possible... im just wondering if winds will be sustained at 35 mph.... but some intense snowfall looks to be the case (not if ur near cape cod and over towards the new beford area... some mixing will go on there possibily, cutting down on accumulations....) over a foot is certainly a possibility
                      Stone throws away from Gillette.

                      R.I.P. Junior Seau

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by ElectricEye View Post
                        Stone throws away from Gillette.
                        ohhhh hahha well then you should get owned like i will here in RI

                        Thanks to BoneKrusher for this amazing sig!

                        Go Gators/Pats/Celts/Red Sox!

                        Comment


                        • Real feel temp. is 0 right now for me. The couple minutes I had to be outside so far today have been brutal, don't know how you Midwest guys do it so often.

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                          • NO MOAR COLD AND SNOW.
                            can't wait to walk to class in...oh, it's 3 degrees outside? awesome
                            We ALL bleed scarlet
                            New York Giants Super Bowl 46 Champs
                            UNITED: I actually attend the college I root for
                            Originally posted by PalmerToCJ
                            BTW, if it's 3rd and 97... I'm throwing a screen pass to Brian Leonard and he will convert.

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                            • It's so ******* cold here today that it was hard as hell to get out of bed. Just not worth it being outside.

                              R.I.P. Junior Seau

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                              • It's supposed to be in the mid to high 70s all week.

                                I love California.

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