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  • I dont understand why everyone feels the need to start pointing fingers without any evidence. We need to give it a night.
    Vote: No Lynch

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    • Vote Count

      No Lynch 12: Cain, Ngata, Rufus, Zach, Jvig, Scottyboy, Vidae, CCB, Goose, Snicho, CJSchneider, EATW
      Deep 2: Wooty, Bulldog
      Cain 1: Job
      Shane 2: ATL, JoeJoeBrown
      Job 1: The Boy Wonder,
      Wooty 1: Flying Elvis


      With 33 people still alive, 17 Votes are needed to reach a majority.
      Last edited by Caddy; 02-21-2012, 03:21 PM.

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      • Originally posted by Snicho View Post
        I dont understand why everyone feels the need to start pointing fingers without any evidence. We need to give it a night.
        Vote: No Lynch
        I like kicking ass first and taking names later.

        Comment


        • Just a quick note for the mods (Shane/Vid/Diab), if a majority is reached, could one of you guys please close the thread if I'm not around. My sleep usually coincides with your day 9am EST till 5pm EST. kthx

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          • Vote: No Lynch

            What I do see, I'm not willing to stick my neck out over.




            2 C 5:6-8 Jakob Murphy aka themaninblack

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            • This is ridiculous.

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              • Originally posted by Snicho View Post
                I dont understand why everyone feels the need to start pointing fingers without any evidence. We need to give it a night.
                Vote: No Lynch
                Its the best way to (on the first day) gauge how people react, and what they say or do when attention is on them. Brody brought up a good point about Shane, I agreed with his point but took it a little further to see if we could get some info, and with the way Shane defended himself, I do not see him as a threat, so I took back my vote.
                Though with the way things are going right now, unless someone else accuses someone of something and I have reason to vote for someone, I'm going to go with a no lynch vote. Be wary of Job honestly, he is a big proponent of lynching on the first day either way, no matter what his role, so just because he doesn't want a no lynch, doesn't mean he is playing the same way, or has the same role, as he did last go around.

                vote:no lynch
                Nanna Bryndís Hilmarsdóttir is a goddess

                Rest in Peace, themaninblack

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                • Originally posted by eaglesalltheway View Post
                  Its the best way to (on the first day) gauge how people react, and what they say or do when attention is on them. Brody brought up a good point about Shane, I agreed with his point but took it a little further to see if we could get some info, and with the way Shane defended himself, I do not see him as a threat, so I took back my vote.
                  Though with the way things are going right now, unless someone else accuses someone of something and I have reason to vote for someone, I'm going to go with a no lynch vote. Be wary of Job honestly, he is a big proponent of lynching on the first day either way, no matter what his role, so just because he doesn't want a no lynch, doesn't mean he is playing the same way, or has the same role, as he did last go around.

                  vote:no lynch
                  You can't vote no lynch, you still haven't unvoted me I believe.


                  Follow Me on Twitter!
                  https://twitter.com/ShanePHallam

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                  • I feel like i'm doing that every game but no one ever listens.

                    Here is why a no lynch on day 1 is useless.

                    1. Statistically, it is the only option that has a 100% chance of not helping town.

                    2. The essence of the game
                    Knowledge VS numbers. which means that, especially in a game of 33 people, townspeople are expendable : losing one is not so bad at all if it helps gathering info. (See point 4 for proof)

                    3. The argument for a no lynch usually is one of those two:
                    a) Let's wait for the power roles to find out some info.
                    b) We can not lynch someone without evidence/strong sentiment.

                    Why do I not think they are decent arguments? Because a) relies on a bunch of assumptions that can not be a certainty. Mainly those 4 :
                    - The assumption that there is a power role. Because they're has been other games in which there were many power roles, people here assume that there will be a bunch of those again. Yet we know nothing at all. For all we know (which is pretty much nothing on Day 1), there could be none.
                    - The assumption that the hypothetical power role willl find a culprit. Chances are he won't for quite a while.
                    - The assumption that the hypothetical power role will reveal himself and his information. Most of the time, they don't for quite a while, and for obvious reasons. Nobody likes to have a big target on his ass.
                    - The assumption that the hypothetical power role will be reliable. The past has proven us that they tend not to be due to framers, incompetence or some other trick in one's role.

                    Which brings me to point b). Because of the reasons stated above, I already established that it is counterproductive to wait for the power roles to give up evidence/information. What is the only other way to amass info? Voting people and lynching them. Why?
                    - A bunch of votes against someone will make him go defensive, trying to save his life, might even make him panic a bit and give out info without realising it. That's when a mafia tends to make some errors and a townsperson tends to prove its innocence. That's when people have to uncover themselves. No lynch doesn't input any pressure on anyone.
                    - Lynching someone is the best information gatherer of all. Because on the next day, we can see who did and who did not vote for the lynched on day 1, but most importantly how everyone acted. Then we can have some better arguments and suspicions. Which will only apply greater pressure and force errors as explained in the point above.


                    4. Statistics again.
                    Let's imagine there is about a 1:4 ratio of mafia in the town. Consider this : for every investigator, the chances that he finds a culprit during the night is exactly the same as us finding one during the day (actually it would be lower because of the unreliabality I've already talked about), which would be about 20% in this scenario. The average scenario if we were just going randomly about our choices (we're not, but let's make this a worst case scenario) would mean that on the 5th lynch/investigation, we would find a culprit.

                    Situation a) We wait for the investigators to reveal the bad guys. He finally finds one during night 5. The first time we ever get real evidence is night 5. Meaning that the first mafia lynch would be on Day 6. Meanwhile, one non-mafia has been killed every night, meaning we lost 5 guys.

                    Situation b) We also ****-up four times, but this time we take full use of our combined lynching and investigating powers. Which means we ****-up on day 1, night 1, day 2, night 2, but finally catch someone on day 3. Yes, we did lynch two guys we shouldn't have, but on the total, we've lost only 4 guys, which is an upgrade.

                    Situation c) We no-lynch on day 1, then start lynching and ****-up four times as randomness average wants. We therefore fail night 1, day 2, night 2, day 3 until the investigator is the one succeeding. We lost someone on Night 1, day 2, night 2, day 3 and night 3 before being able to lynch someone with evidence. For a total of 5 guys.

                    Notice something? Yep, situation b) is the situation in which most townspeople survive.

                    So I've already established that lynching someone is a better strategy even if we play the game randomly, without using our brains at all. What wasn't taken into consideration is that :

                    a) A lynch will statistically help the investigator on Night 1, bringing his, let's say : 6/33 chances of finding a culprit to 6/32. Using the same logic, it will also help the townspeople on the following day, bringing the probabilities down to 6/31, and so on.

                    b) A day 1 lynch will provide a bunch of information out of the argumentation, vote counts and further argumentations on the next days. Which will both help the investigator AND the townspeople in making their choices during the following nights/days, considerably raising our chances of finding a culprit. As opposed to no lynching which provides no info at all.


                    5. The ludicrous "We could lynch our investigator" argument.
                    The chances of the townspeople killing the investigator in a random lynch if there are 6 mafia : 1/33.
                    The chances of the mafia killing the investigator at night with a random kill : 1/27.
                    Which means, once again, that no lynching until evidence improves the chances of losing our investigator.

                    6. The nature of being a mafia
                    Yes, a mafia members wants to kill every non-mafia guy. But the most important thing is to not be caught. And the best way for a member to do that is not giving any information on who he is and who he's with. The best way to do that is to NOT vote for anyone, and rely on night kills. Taking this into consideration (and point 4), it is absolutely pro-town to cast a vote on Day 1, and anti-town to not cast a vote or vote no lynch on Day 1.


                    Think about that before no lynching.
                    Last edited by Job Reborn; 02-21-2012, 08:15 AM.

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                    • *Just added a third situation in my statistical argument, in case someone already read it and missed it.

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                      • Hey Job I decided to lynch with you.

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                        • Seriously you guys are bad. I know that Deep is a bad person. Focus on the know.

                          #MoncriefArmy

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                          • Originally posted by Wooty Magic! View Post
                            Seriously you guys are bad. I know that Deep is a bad person. Focus on the know.
                            We need a bit more than that, I'd like a bit more information about how/why you know it. Don't have to reveal a role, but I'd be surprised if your role outright knew who was bad.


                            Follow Me on Twitter!
                            https://twitter.com/ShanePHallam

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                            • I'm gonna change to no lunch. I'll make it official later.

                              Compliments of TACKLE

                              Gamertag/PSN: theboywonder44

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                              • Okay so Wooty is pretty adamant on Deep being bad.

                                I don't know how he knows or why but this is something we should discuss. Wooty is the only one claiming that they know someone is bad.

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