2009 Regular Season - Week 17 Colts at Bills (Sunday 1pm ET)
 

Line-up is subject to change as injuries become known:-

Indianapolis Colts

QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Joseph Addai
H-B: Gijon Robinson
TE: Dallas Clark
LWR: Reggie Wayne
RWR: Anthony Gonzalez
LT: Charlie Johnson
LG: Ryan Lilja
C: Jeff Saturday
RG: Mike Pollak
RT: Ryan Diem

LE: Keyunta Dawson
UT: Daniel Muir
NT: Antonio Johnson
RE: Dwight Freeney
WLB: Freddie Keiaho
MLB: Gary Brackett
SLB: Tyjuan Hagler
LCB: Kelvin Hayden
RCB: Jerraud Powers
FS: Melvin Bullitt
SS: Jamie Silva

PK: Adam Vinatieri
P: Pat McAfee
H: Pat McAfee
LS: Justin Snow
KR: TJ Rushing
PR: TJ Rushing

Current Injuries:

Tom Santi – TE: Out
Robert Mathis – DE: Questionable
Raheem Brock – DE: Questionable
Ed Johnson – DT: Suspended
Clint Session – LB: Questionable
Antoine Bethea – S: Questionable
Bob Sanders – S: Doubtful
Adam Vinatieri – PK: Probable

Jacksonville Jaguars

QB: David Garrard
RB: Rashad Jennings
FB: Greg Jones
TE: Marcedes Lewis
LWR: Troy Williamson
RWR: Tory Holt
LT: Eugene Monroe
LG: Vince Manuwai
C: Brad Meester
RG: Maurice Williams
RT: Eben Britton

LE: Reggie Heyward
UT: Terrance Knighton
NT: John Henderson
RE: Derrick Harvey
WLB: Clint Ingram
MLB: Justin Durant
SLB: Daryl Smith
LCB: Derek Cox
RCB: Rashean Mathis
FS: Reggie Nelson
SS: Sean Considine

PK: Josh Scobee
P: Adam Podlesh
H: Adam Podlesh
LS: Jeremy Cain
KR: Brian Witherspoon
PR: Brian Witherspoon

Current Injuries:

Maurice Jones-Drew – RB: Questionable
Zach Miller – TE: Probable
Clint Ingram – LB: Probable

Matchup

Key injuries for the Colts on the defensive side of the ball will make this a very, very tough game. We lost to Jacksonville in Lucas Oil last year and the Colts could have similar problems against Jacksonville this year.

Pass Offense:


The key for the Colts is that there currently are no real injuries in the Passing Game (Tom Santi is the only Offensive Player carrying a knock and he probably wouldn’t have featured heavily anyway). Manning has had a full Training Camp, has his starting Offensive Line in front of him, has both starting Receivers, and a number of other options like Collie and Garcon. The Colts need to win a number of individual matchups though, one of which could be very tough. Charlie Johnson needs to allow Peyton Manning to get into his rhythm and he will be coming up against Derrick Harvey, the 8th Pick in 2008 NFL Draft. Harvey started off slowly last year but came more into his game as the year went on and could be a very good pass rushing threat this year. Johnson needs to keep Harvey out of the backfield. The other key matchup is much more favourable. That is Anthony Gonzalez against Derek Cox. Cox is a 3rd Round pick from this year’s draft, but is expected to start against the Colts. Gonzalez needs to step up his game and a matchup against a Rookie good be a brilliant start.

Run Offense:


Here’s where the problems started for the Colts last year. They need to run the ball more consistently and keep the Jaguars’ defense on the field for longer, and more importantly, keep the Colts’ defense off the field for longer. Last year, in the corresponding fixture, the Colts had 18:25 minutes of possession, compared to Jacksonville’s 41:35. That is nowhere near good enough. The good part is that the Colts now have 2 1st Round Running Backs, a fully fit Offensive Line, and Peyton Manning. Manning’s knee meant that until basically the BYE week the Colts couldn’t even practice the stretch play. I expect the see the stretch play back to being the mainstay of the Colts’ running game. The Line now has Charlie Johnson at LT, who is a better Run Blocker than Ugoh, Ryan Lilja is now fit, and he’s the team’s best Run Blocker, while Mike Pollak now has another year under his belt and was able to attend Training Camp. All in all, I feel the Line will be better in the Run Game this year. The Jacksonville Run Defense was almost as bad as our Run Defense was last year, and while he wasn’t particularly good, they have lost one of their starting Defensive Tackles for the season. The Colts need to take advantage of this and really start running the ball better.

Pass Defense:


Panic time. The Colts’ have one of the best pass defences in the NFL. The problem is that our second best Pass Rusher is injured, our best interior Pass Rusher is suspended, our second best interior Pass Rusher is injured, our playmaking Weakside Linebacker is injured, one of our starting Cornerbacks is returning from an ACL tear, our starting Free Safety is injured and our starting Strong Safety is injured. Not the role call you want to hear in your first game back. Now, with the exceptions of Bob Sanders and Ed Johnson, all those players can and probably will play. The problem is though, even if those players do play, are they going to be firing on all cylinders? The key matchup is LE against RT. If Robert Mathis is playing he will have Eben Britton looking for his mommy. The problem is that I feel Britton will be able to handle Keyunta Dawson pretty well. We need performances out of Bullitt, and we need Bethea to be able to play because I question Silva’s contribution outside of Special Teams.

Run Defense:


Really, panic time. We started with Keyunta Dawson and Eric Foster last year. It didn’t end well. We are missing three starting members of our front 7, while the Jaguars Offensive Line could really be back with a vengeance. Add this to the loss of Bob Sanders and we will really struggle to stop the run. The Colts really need Jones-Drew to be either out of the game, or playing under his usual level. I don’t know how much of a threat Jennings would be if Jones-Drew is out or misfiring. We need Mookie to have a key game and Dawson to show that while he wasn’t a good Defensive Tackle that he can defend pretty well at end.

Special Teams:


We need our coverage teams to be playing very well. We can’t allow the Jaguars to start every single drive on the 30 or 40 yard line, nor can we afford to start all of ours on 10 yard line. Witherspoon is a very good returner, who has unbelievable straight line speed, so they really need to get him stopped before he gets going. Rushing showed glimpse in Preseason of being back to his best at returning the ball and McAfee really impressed me but we really need Nougatieri to be there and playing well. I could see this game being a close one and could be won or lost on a field goal.

Prediction: Jaguars – 20 vs Colts - 24

I definitely like the Colts in this game. Sure they will be without their best DT in Ed Johnson and their best safety in Bob Sanders, but the defense gets a boost playing at home. And the offense will lead the way to victory.

The Colts offense is experienced and ready to roll, they will find success on both ground and air against a retooling Jacksonville defense imo. The Colts can still do things against the Jax pass defense.

The Jaguars offensive line doesn't have its chemistry yet, the receivers don't have their chemistry with Garrard yet. This is why I love the Colts playing the Jaguars right out of the gate.

Plus Maurice Jones-Drew is currently dealing with some shin injury, although I expect him to play - but, like I've thought all offseason, I don't expect him to last as a real workhorse RB (say 350 touches) that some fantasy football people think he'll be.

Normally I don't hazard to guess a score, but just as a differing example to Seamus, I think something along the lines of 34-20 in favor of the Colts.

I just worry about the D-Line. We really need both Mathis and Brock to play. If neither plays then here's our D-Lines.

Run Downs:

LE: Dawson
UT: Muir
NT: Mookie
RE: Freeney

Pass Downs:

LE: ??? Do we play either Glenn or Wheeler with their hand in the dirt?
UT: Foster
NT: Dawson
RE: Freeney

If Tra Thomas and Vince Manuwai can successfully double team Freeney, and you have to imagine that they will, and I'd imagine the other three Jags O-Line men could keep our other three rushers out, sans Brock and Mathis, then I don't see any pass rush. Even Garrard, with rusty Receivers, will do well if we can't get to him quickly.

Rotoworld says rookie Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton have won the left and right tackle spots, respectively, for the Jags.

Two rookies against Freeney and Mathis, in the Oil Drum.

I just jizzed in my pants.


The only thing is that, for the love of good football, pay all attention to Maurice Jones-Drew on third downs. Doesn't matter what distance.

Even still, if we have those injuries, I would wory even if it is Freeney against Monroe and Manuwai. The key thing is Mathis. If Mathis is fit then he will destroy Ebon Britton, an Offensive Tackle who was told he wouldn't cut it as a Left Tackle because he can't keep out elite speed rushers. If Mathis is fit then they will struggle to double block him with Britton and Lewis, which will give an easier matchup inside. They need internal pass rush to keep Manuwai away from Freeney.

This game will be won by the Colts offense
 

I have more confidence in the Colts offense to force the Jags to play catch up to make Freeney and Mathis more effective.

I think that is what is going to happen and the only 2 positions of confidence for me on defense in this game would be DE (if Mathis plays) and CB (our depth is solid there). If we can force the Jags to play catch up, this game is OVER in our favor.:) I think that is what will happen.

I hate that the Patriots were able to get a 1st rounder from the Raiders for Richard Seymour. They just keep on swindling that senile fool Al Davis.

The positive is that hopefully the Colts will take advatage of their short-term loss (before a long-term gain) just like in 2006 when, before the season, the Pats traded Deion Branch to Seattle for a 1st round pick. That helped the Colts get a higher seeding for the playoffs and the AFCCG victory. The Colts had difficulty running to Seymour's side, as I recall, so now they will hope run better and block better to that side which bodes well for them.

And also, seeing as how Randy Moss has been relatively healthy the last two years, I think there is a chance that he might have to deal with injury this season. Just the way things work, it tends to be cyclical.

I think the cycle for the Colts is strongest these next two years, just like it was in 2005 and 2006.

Which could be prolonged further with some really good drafts and acquisitions. Ex. picking up undrafted free agent Ed Johnson in 2007.

That is why this year is ripe for the plucking
 

Merriman, I heard is still not 100% in explosiveness, plus has the off-the-field issues to worry about. So, the Chargers, with their tough schedule, can almost be guaranteed to finish #4 in the AFC again winning a lousy division and hosting a 10 or 11 win team in the wild card (could be Ravens or Titans, IMO since we will win our division:) ). This may be a year where the Chargers could also lose the wild card round at home. Then, the Pats can be had on their defensive side with so many questions lingering on D for them. The Steelers are the most solid threat to the Colts this year.

This is a good year for us to get a #1 or #2 seed. Given the luck the #1 seeds have had in the AFC recently (except when it is the Pats who have gone to the SB every time they were #1):( , I'd rather have the Steelers take the #1 and us at #2 (rather go to Heinz field than to Foxboro).

Seamus I am with you on your concern for the defense. Preseason was pretty much shot as far as getting practice with the starters in the new defensive scheme. Too many injuries to starters and key players. I am frustrated because a: if everyone was healthy and stayed that way I think it could've been something special, and b: with so many injuries the defense might just be flat out bad.

That said, I think the Colts will win by a TD or more.

The Jags are going to spend so much of their focus on Reggie Wayne, because he slays them. Reggie is a Jaguar killer.

Btw, I don't know if you guys heard, but the Colts are easing Marlin Jackson back into playing so he's going to be the nickelback. Either Tim Jennings or Jerraud Powers will start opposite Kelvin Hayden, who feels good about coming back in time. Sounds good to me, all around.

This is, in my opinion, a good deal for both teams. The Patriots get what could be, without going beyond the realms of possibility, the 2011 1st Overall Pick. It could, also in theory, be the 32nd pick (less likely). Either way, anywhere from an awesome pick to a good one for the Patriots, in return for giving up a year's production from Richard Seymour. Seymour wouldn't have been resigned next summer.

The Raiders give up a pick that they had an 80% of wasting anyway and get a potential Hall of Famer, with some juice left in the aul motor. If they can sign Seymour to a long term deal then this is also a very good pick for the Raiders.

The key thing for the Colts is that we finish with the highest record. Remember, last year, with a **** Offensive Line, no running game, and for half the season an injured Peyton Manning, now run defense or Bob Sanders for most of the Season, we still finished 12-4, 1 game away from being the best team in the AFC. If we had beat the Titans in Tennessee then we would have had Home Field advantage for the entire playoffs. The key thing is to get that, so that if we get to the Divisional and Championship games, we are playing them on our own turf instead of the rather chilly Heinz Stadium or Foxbrough.

I'm just hoping that we get all the injuries out of our game here and now and retain relatively good health for the rest of the season. I'm not terribly worried about the Secondary. We have some of the best depth in the league at Secondary. Similar at Linebacker and Defensive Tackle. I just worry about our entire Defense if either Freeney or Mathis are out.

Heard now that it seems Jerraud Powers is getting the edge and will start against Jacksonville.

Powers was such a find by the Colts, spectacular job by the scouting department. He's not only going to break the 3rd round curse, he's going to start for the Colts opposite Hayden for years to come.

Omg Bill Polian talks with Brian Burke, President and General Manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs! My two favorite Pres/GMs for my two favorite teams! Wonderful!

(I heard this on Leafs Lunch today.)

Injury report
 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Status Report

OUT TE Zach Miller (knee)
PROBABLE DT Derek Landri (knee), T Tra Thomas (back)

Practice Report

DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
Wednesday TE Zach Miller (knee), T Tra Thomas (back)
Thursday TE Zach Miller (knee)
Friday TE Zach Miller (knee)

LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Thursday DT Derek Landri (knee)
Friday DT Derek Landri (knee), T Tra Thomas (back)

FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Thursday T Tra Thomas (back)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Status Report

OUT S Bob Sanders (knee), TE Tom Santi (ankle), CB Jamie Silva (abdomen)
QUESTIONABLE DT Fili Moala (knee)

Practice Report

DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
Wednesday S Bob Sanders (knee), TE Tom Santi (ankle), CB Jamie Silva (abdomen)
Thursday CB Tim Jennings (not injury related), DT Fili Moala (knee), S Bob Sanders (knee), TE Tom Santi (ankle), CB Jamie Silva (abdomen)
Friday CB Marlin Jackson (not injury related), DT Fili Moala (knee), S Bob Sanders (knee), TE Tom Santi (ankle), CB Jamie Silva (abdomen)

FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Friday CB Tim Jennings (not injury related)

Wow, Marshall Faulk is picking the Jags to win.

Per Rotoworld:

Colts declared S Bob Sanders, S Jamie Silva, TE Tom Santi, DT Fili Moala, OL Dan Federkeil, OL Kyle DeVan, LB Cody Glenn and third QB Curtis Painter inactive for Week 1 against the Jaguars.

No surprises there.

Oh COME ON!

RUN IT IN!

What a stupid way to end a GREAT drive.

Wow, just wow.

We are being extremely stupid right now.

What happened to Gonzalez any updates?

Well ****. Good game guys. I think the division is yours still.

I'm not going to write a book, but here are some thoughts:

• The Colts offense looked somewhat shaky in the first game of the season, as usual. This has been going on every year since 03. Remember the Manning Bowl in 06? Peyton threw some real bonehead passes in that game too, which the Giants dropped like Considine today did.

• The stretch play is dead. Dead, done with, over. The sooner the Colts realize that, the better. But it's okay because they can run between tackle-guard (B gap) and guard-center (A gap). They just have to actually do that, which I hope they will. Also they should run more on the left side and the middle than the right side, I think, as Diem is not a great run-blocker and Pollak has the potential to pull very well.

• Stupid stretch play attempts hurt the running game average and the Colts offense. When they did run B gap or A gap like they should, they ran okay to well. Brown is better than Addai though, and if Addai was hurt like booth commentator Solomon Wilcots thinks (but I don't believe it myself), Addai completely played through it and even waived Brown off the field at times. Having Brown is a double bonus, because he's great and he's going to push Addai.

• I like Eric Foster period. But I also like Eric Foster the fullback.

• Just like the last two years, I continue to beg Peyton to throw to his RBs. Please Peyton, throw them the ball all day, it's for the taking. 55 receptions for Addai and 45 receptions for Brown, at least, for my tastes. Pass the runningbacks the ball, they can gain twice what they can rush for and it moves the chains. Please Peyton.

• Reggie Wayne told Michael Irvin that his nickname for this season is the Undertaker. Because he's going to slay fools this year. So true.

• Gonzalez's injury was terrifying, but Jason La Canfora of NFL Network is saying it's a knee sprain that will keep him out for 2-6 weeks. That's not great news obviously but it's not the worst news, so I hope that is all it is and he can come back healthy this year.

• Charlie Johnson played well today? I didn't notice any blunders at all, so I would think so. Stick with Charlie, Ugoh doesn't have the head for it.

• Defense had some sketchy moments, but they played very well overall. They won this game for the most part, really. The defense looked improved already from last year.

• Gary Brackett was huge on the last two Jags plays with his pass rushing on Garrard. Way to go, Brackett.

• I love Jerraud Powers. What a gem, what a find. It's like the Colts had two 1st round picks this year with him and Donald Brown.

• Existing studs in Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Kelvin Hayden: well done today.

• Special teams was great. I don't blame Vinatieri for the wide left miss because the Colts should never have attempted the 52-yd FG imo, that was a stupid decision by Caldwell (he had a few himself today) to go for it.

• Caldwell made some stupid decisions, hopefully he learns from them like a good rookie NFL head coach. Caldwell did learn from that FG error and had the Colts punt the next time, which had them pin the Jags on the 1/2-yards line. Awesome! I can never remember that happening under loser Purnell.

• Most important thing: Colts win! And they have the early lead on the AFC South division, like I thought they would coming out of this game.

guess who Purnell coaches for now :(

Oh I knew. He did previously coach the Baltimore Ravens ST including when they won the SB in 2000, so maybe he works out for you guys. But he was awful year after year in Indianapolis, yet Dungy wouldn't fire him or Ron Meeks.

Dungy was such a hypocrite. How can players lose jobs when they don't perform or be replaced with better players, but coaches can't be fired and replaced? Thankfully he retired.

With Gonzo being out the next few weeks who do you guys see starting?

I think we'll see a combination of three things:

1. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark probably getting more targets, because Peyton trusts them the most.

2. (Hopefully) A few more passes to the RBs, because Addai and Brown can do well in that area even if the running game is meager. Which it probably will be the next two weeks, playing at Miami and at Arizona, both in primetime.

3. Both rookie slot receiver Austin Collie and second-year outside receiver Pierre Garcon will share the load of making up for Gonzo's absence.

I wish I could say it was just one guy, because I have the #1 waiver wire priority in two of my FF leagues and it would be great to get Gonzalez production from a guy in his place, but I can't point to one guy to do that. Maybe it happens, we'll see.

If I was pressed to make a guess, because the Colts will line up with at least two receivers on almost every play, I guess Pierre Garcon would be the guy to target. He plays outside and he has speed that the Colts like.