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Caulibflower 12-19-2011 03:51 AM

Your Hits & Misses
 
Every year every draftnik's got a few guys he forms really strong opinions on. There's the mass of players, and then there are the guys you specifically love and hate. More interested in the polarizing players, too - don't care if you were high on Manning when he was coming out. More interested if you thought he was going to suck. I haven't been doing this more than a couple years, so there's not really anyone whose career I can point to and say, "I was right about that guy," but I was a pretty staunch Newton supporter, and was adamant that Gabbert was going to suck. Both of those are looking like good calls.

I honestly thought when the Giants drafted JPP, there was a good chance the guy just wasn't going to see the field, and might be a 6-sack rotational player in a couple years whose high draft status was the answer to a trivia question. But he's balling this year. I don't know what it was, but he was a hard sell for me.

Also couldn't find a good reason to like Ryan Matthews, and posted several times there's no way I'd take him in the first round. I might still stick by that, but now only on the principle that there are plenty of good running backs beyond the first round. Mentioned because he just went over a thousand yards today, so doubtful many SD fans are complaining.

Let's hear 'em. Hits and misses. If you're a GM in Fantasy Land, who got you fired?

TitanHope 12-19-2011 04:07 AM

I'm still sore over Everette Pedescleaux and Rulon Davis... :(

TACKLE 12-19-2011 04:58 AM

Just some more notable one's off the top of my head. I'm sure I'm forgetting some of both sides. It's funny, I remember my misses more than I remember my hits.


Hit

- I too was a huge Cam fan. Pretty sure I was the first one here to call him my #1 QB. :D

- Putting Gabbert on here feels like stealing candy from a baby.

- I loved Carl Nicks and thought he was a 1st round talent despite character concerns dropping him to the 5th round. He's turned into one of the best guards in the league and could be probably be a very good tackle as well.

- Despite being the 6th CB off the board, Brandon Flowers was my #1 CB in '08.

- I hated Maybin. He was a one dimensional player who's one dimension wasn't even that good. He was BRUTAL at the combine. Though to be fair, it might be a tad early to write him off just yet.

- Jordyzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

- I didn't like Jimmy Clausen at all despite most on here thinking that he was better than Bradford and worth a top 10 pick.

- One of the only USC players I've been right on, I thought Winston Justice was garbage even though most had him as a Top 15 talent.


Miss

- The undersized pass rushers killed me....I was a huge fan of both Jerry Hughes and Everette Brown.

- I was one of those who fell in love with the college production and measurables of Jarron Gilbert. I couldn't understand why no one drafted him earlier.

- Thought Jimmy Williams (Virginia Tech) would be the steal of the draft. He was a freak with great versatility....he showed up to OTA's at 240 and was out of the league in two years.

- USC Trojans..........I liked most of them (Bush, Jarrett, Leinart, Mays, Maualuga, Sanchez kinda)

- Jamaal Anderson.

Caulibflower 12-19-2011 05:20 AM

Sam Bradford's kind of an interesting one. I was calling him the next Alex Smith before that draft, but after seeing him play as a rookie it looked like I was a bit off. Now... I know his team's bad, but 6 TDs in 10 games this year? That's pretty pathetic. Also, the Alex Smith comparisons are in light of the fact that I tended to think Smith could be an alright starter, but was drafted a round too high. Might end up ultimately being closer to what I originally thought, but there was a while where I was thinking, "Well, I guess Sam Bradford's a lot better than I expected." ...Maybe not. Haha.

Caulibflower 12-19-2011 05:27 AM

Didn't like Matt Ryan very much. (Still not a big fan, but the Falcons are obviously a legit team with him.)

Thought CJ Spiller had a lot of bust potential, and needed to go to a team that wouldn't need to rely on him. (Like not Buffalo, although he's had a couple good games lately. Rookie season was really underwhelming though. Less than even I expected.)

Oh, I know. I thought Matthew Stafford was really overrated. That one makes me look pretty dumb.

GaMeTiMe 12-19-2011 09:34 AM

One player that always comes to my mind is Eric Weddle. I understand he was a high second round pick, but I was REALLY high on him coming out. He's out-performed his draft slot but I still expected him to be a top-15 player from that class and he's arguably been better. And this is in a class with Megatron, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis and Revis.

I was dying for the Eagles to make that pick, then they traded back and took Kolb, and San Diego traded like 5 picks to move to the next pick and pick Weddle.

Halsey 12-19-2011 09:51 AM

Hits:
I knew Stafford would be a #1 overall pick a long time before the 2009 Draft: http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/top...-2009-or-2010/

I thought Chris Johnson was underrated: http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/top...-front-of-him/

I didn't buy Michael Crabtree as being quite as good as many were making him out to be.

I thought the anti-Jason Pierre Paul bandwagon got out of hand.

Misses:
Brady Quinn

Looks like I was probably wrong about Gabbert, but I'm not ready to give up yet. I still think he has a chance to improve. He's one of the youngest starting QBs ever.

Jamaal Anderson

SilentJaguar 12-19-2011 10:21 AM

Hits:

Mike Wallace- I thought he was something special when coming out of Ole Miss and I was hoping the Jags would grab him in the 3rd, but we ended up getting Knighton and Derek Cox instead while Wallace went a few picks later. Not bad, mind you, but I still think we could've nabbed Derek later on, personally.

Blaine Gabbert- I was pretty adamant on the Jags' forum that I didn't want Blaine because of a lot of things I saw from him in college that are showing up now. Was really, REALLY hoping we'd get Locker instead.

Terrell Suggs- I had watched a LOT of ASU that year and felt he was gonna be great in the league(and even thought he was who we were gonna draft when Minnesota missed their pick and we hurried up and took Bustwich).

LeSean McCoy- I was shocked when he dropped all the way down to middle of the second as I had him as my #2 back in the class behind Moreno.

Misses:

Jamaal Anderson- Thought he was going to be the next dominant pass-rusher from the SEC. Oops...

Colt McCoy- Kinda iffy on this one, but since he's their full-time starter with no signs of going away anytime soon, I'll label it as a "miss".

Derrick Harvey- Yup.

Quentin Groves- Double Yup.

DiG 12-19-2011 10:31 AM

heres what i posted was my ideal draft back in 2008 when we ended up taking devin thomas, fred davis, and malcolm kelly...

First selection
Antoine Cason

Second Selection - 51st
Jordy Nelson

Third Selection (late second/early third through trade)
Tracy Porter

Fourth Selection (pick 84) -
Carl Knicks

Fifth Selection (Comp pick 96) -
John Greco

DraftSavant 12-19-2011 11:20 AM

Hits
- Pretty much every USC player ever except Tyron Smith. I liked Smith's upside, but didn't think he had enough natural strength to be effective his rookie year. But the Bush/Leinart era Trojans are all my draft bitches, forever.
- Denarius ******* Moore. My man.
- Blaine. I'll say no more.
- Knowshon Moreno (Thought he was hot garbage. Such a frenetic, choppy runner who wastes a ton of movement and has neither speed nor power. )
- I L.O.V.E.D. Jonathan Joseph coming out
- Rolando McClain being completely overvalued/overdrafted.
- One of the few who really, really liked JPP. You just don't see a first step combined with that type of hip flexibility on a long-armed freak like that very often.
- Percy Harvin, especially to everyone who said he'd bust because he's a "UF wide receiver lolz"

Misses
- Jamarcus AND Quinn (the entire 2007 draft, really) :shudders:
- Julio's speed and explosiveness
- I thought Ernie Sims was going to be a Bau5 and a Pro Bowl mainstay at WLB.
- Earl Thomas being too small
- Andy Dalton's arm being too weak to start in the NFL
- Vernon Gholston
- Jamal Anderson - seems like a lot of people in this thread missed on this asshole.
- Carlos Dunlap. Still surprised by his NFL success, but kudos to him. Much better NFL player than college player. I always thought Cunningham would end up the better pro.

SimonRath 12-19-2011 11:36 AM

dont mean to toot my own horn, but im pretty sure i was the biggest fan out of anyone when it came to Marques Colston. I even e-mailed the Falcons like 20 times telling them to draft him!

BuddyCHRIST 12-19-2011 11:45 AM

I hated Matt Ryan and loved Brady Quinn so I missed on both of those. But I was a big time Matt Stafford supporter and still think he's the highest rated QB ive graded. Hated Gabbert but thats too easy.

I also loved Jimmy Williams and couldn't see why he wasn't a first round pick. Hated Maybin, but Everette Brown was my boy and he hasn't been much better.

I thought Malcom Jenkins would be able to stay at corner, though he's played pretty well at safety. I knew Harvin would be a stud if healthy and he's pretty much been that when healthy and with competent QB play.

ATLDirtyBirds 12-19-2011 12:47 PM

A few of the more "big names" in recent years off the top of my head...


Hits: JPP, Brady Quinn/Jimmy Claussen, Orakpo, Felix Jones, LaRon Landry (debated Landry>Nelson far too many times for this to not stick out)

Miss: Crabtree, McCluster, Brandon Graham, Sergio Kindle

TACKLE 12-19-2011 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DraftSavant (Post 2793963)
- Carlos Dunlap. Still surprised by his NFL success, but kudos to him. Much better NFL player than college player. I always thought Cunningham would end up the better pro.

Same here. I thought he was incredibly overrated.

AntoinCD 12-19-2011 01:01 PM

I correctly called that Von Miller was the second coming of Tully Banta-Ca...never mind.

I was also another one all aboard the Notre Dame QB band wagons

Complex 12-19-2011 02:10 PM

Hit: JPP, I said he would be the 2nd best defensive player behind Suh.
Carlos Dunlap
Cam Newton and Jake Locker.I know I put him down a lot during the Cam vs Locker threads but I really liked him since he was freshman maybe sophmore but I think it was his freshman year.
Landry
Percy Harvin
Sidney Rice
Terrell Suggs
Jimmy Clausen, I was so right about him.
Ed Reed
Gabbert


Miss
Charles Rogers
Malcom Kelly
Jimmy Williams
Venon Gholston
Everrett Brown
Every good USC Skill player and Winston Justice except Kerry Colbert.
Shady McCoy

jrdrylie 12-19-2011 02:27 PM

I'll go by class.

2005: I said Alex Smith would be a big bust (that's neither a hit nor a miss because really he's been incredibly average). I said Aaron Rodgers would have a Drew Bledsoe type career. I wasn't comparing them as prospects. I just expected him to have a long, above average career.

2006: I was really high on Matt Leinart. I thought he would be amazing. I loved it when the Jaguars picked Maurice Jones-Drew. I was shocked about the fact that it took him three years to fully take over from Fred Taylor.

2007: I loved Brady Quinn. I was writing a bit for my college newspaper at the time and I said at the time that passing on Brady Quinn would be the Jaguars ticket to Los Angeles. Boy was I wrong. But I did think Jamarcus Russell would be a bust and Eric Weddle would be good. I also thought Antonio Pittman was going to be one of those guys who was pretty good in college and then explodes in the NFL.

2008: I was not happy about the Chicago pick of Matt Forte. I really wanted Jamaal Charles. That's more like a half miss. I also loved Brandon Albert. I thought he was a perennial pro bowler. Instead, he's average. I did really like Cliff Avril as a prospect, so I wasn't completely wrong that year.

2009: I thought Percy Harvin, Clay Matthews, and Brian Cushing would all bust. Three strikes. I'm out. As far as hits? Graham Gano???

2010: I thought Sam Bradford would suck and Jimmy Clausen would be an above average starter. Jury is still out on the former. The latter I was way wrong. I also thought Jonathan Dwyer would be the steal of the draft.

2011: Probably too early to tell. But I was really low on Newton, like Julio Jones more than A.J. Green, thought Derrick Sherrod was the top offensive tackles, thought Pouncey would be half the player his brother was, and really liked Akeem Ayers, Ryan Kerrigan, and Rahim Moore.

Miaoww 12-19-2011 02:29 PM

Love how everyone is writing off Clausen and Gabbert after one season whilst lauding Andy "Throw it to A.J. Green" Dalton.

jrdrylie 12-19-2011 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miaoww (Post 2794185)
Love how everyone is writing off Clausen and Gabbert after one season whilst lauding Andy "Throw it to A.J. Green" Dalton.

I haven't written off Gabbert yet. If he gets a quality QB coach this off season, then maybe he could progress. But Clausen is done for. I don't know if he'll ever start another game in the NFL outside of a team losing their top two quarterbacks and getting desperate.

As for Dalton, I did not think he would make it as a pro. I thought he was a slightly less athletic clone of Colt McCoy. In fact, I still think next year he could have a sophomore slump like McCoy has had this season but it will be harder for him to do that because he does have AJ Green.

ElectricEye 12-19-2011 02:34 PM

Hits;
-Jamarcus Russell. I remember being one of the first people hyping him up around here...as a second or third round pick. I thought there was a very high bust factor there and yeah, I guess I was on that.

-Clay Matthews. Far, far, far and away my biggest hit and the thing I'm most proud of. I was on him way earlier than a lot of people. It didn't shock me at all that he blew up the combine and had a great showing at the Senior Bowl and I was begging fort he Patriots to draft him.

-Blaine Gabbert. I liked the guy his Sophomore year, but when it came down to it I just didn't see a first round caliber player...or even a third round one.

-Rob Gronkowski. I'm shocked he's THIS productive, but it doesn't surprise me at all that he's one of the better receiving tight ends in the league. A lot of people didn't seem to see him as that type of guy.

Misses:

-Brady Quinn. I was so hard for Brady Quinn it's not even funny. Probably was my favorite quarterback prospect in the past 5 years or so, thought he would be a top five at his position kind of guy.

-Alex Smith. He's turned himself into a serviceable, good quarterback...but I had the entire Aaron Rodgers thing backward. Loved his combination of mobility and accuracy.

-Ditto to Tackle on undersized pass rushers. Hughes and Everette Brown were two of my favorites(Quinton Groves was in the team picture). I guess sometimes you get the Claymaker or Woodley...sometimes you get those guys.

BaLLiN 12-19-2011 02:47 PM

Hits:

2006
Bobby Carpenter- Didn't like him, was very happy that the Cowboys drafted him because I felt he wasn't worth a first.

Antonio Cromartie- I loved his size, speed, and potential. He has performed well, but is inconsistent

Santonio Holmes- man oh man was he good in college. I thought he'd be very very good in the slot, but he outperformed my expectations.

DeAngelo Williams- loved him, he had soo much production on a terrible team. He showed great vision and agility despite not having great speed.

Greg Jennings- he was a lot of people's sleeper pick, i joined the bandwagon and reaped some benefits.

Jason Avant- I liked him almost as much as mario in their michigan days, but he wasn't as explosive. He is very reliable however.

Mathias Kiwanuka- tall, massive, quick, I wasnt happy about the pick because we had strahan and osi, but it turned out well.

2007

JaMarcus Russell- bust, I didn't like that he seemed to just chuck balls and how he rose so much during the process. I thought he could be an ok starter, but his head wasnt in it.

Jon Beason- absolute beast. my favorite player from this draft, I wanted the giants to pick him, but Aaron Ross's flash made me feel ok. Beason was a tackling machiene and intense on a good miami defense.

Joe Staley- Mel Kiper wanted us to draft him, but I didnt particularly like him as a prospect. He is average imo.

David Harris- knew the jets got a good one when they traded up for him, he was a very good leader and tackling machiene just like beason.

Tony Hunt- despite being senior bowl mvp, i didnt see anything special about him. He hasnt done much in the league, idk if he is even still in it.

Tanard Jackson- loved his range, I definitely think he could be a top 10 safety, but he needs to improve vs the run. Excellent at reading the ball in the air.

Ahmad Bradshaw- im sure many people liked him, he had a lot of production, swagger, toughness, and swagger at marshall.

2008

Glenn Dorsey- very sudden and strong, wasnt drafted into a good position, but this transition shows how good he is.

Jonathan Stewart- he should be starting somewhere in the league, strong fast, breaks a lot of tackles and is a good enough receiver.

Brandon Flowers- Favorite player of this draft, watched his highlights like daily. He was strong, made plays, and although he didn't run well and had some "character issues" I wanted him on my team whether it was safety or corner.

Curtis Lofton- made SOO many tackles at OU, closing speed, good MLB.

Tracy Porter- quick, playmaking, good man to man skills. Him and Flowers were great to watch.

Ray Rice- Scotty really made me love Rice, well so did Rice but I did think speed was a problem. He was tough and extended plays when you thought there was nothing. He and Leonard and Foster were the main reasons for Rutgers becoming a legit football team.

Pat Sims- just like Dorsey, he was very sudden and powerful

Eric Foster- He played DE, LB, and DT for rutgers so I didn't know where he would be but with his spirit I knew he'd land somewhere and make an impact.

Davone Bess- insane body control, good hands, good routes, and quick. Many things can make a good receiver and those attributes are hard to match up against.

2009

Mark Sanchez- i knew he sucked

Hakeem Nicks- makes great catches, a lot like bowe

Kenny Britt- not good at routes, but great physical specimen

Patrick Chung- playmaker, rover at oregon, most giants wanted him

DJ Moore- speeedz, he's done pretty well for the bears

LeSean McCoy- I called two things. One was that the eagles would be the ones drafting him in the second, and that he would be a lot like westbrook and fit their system well. So sad that I was right.

Donald Brown- mostly because he killed rutgers every year, quick and explosive.




Misses:

2006
Michael Huff- thought he was one of the best safety prospects ever, but he is nowhere near as good as he should be with those man to man skills, instincts, and physicality.

Jay Cutler- loved the arm and mobility, he makes stupid stupid decisions.

Lawrence Maroney- he was a tough mauler with good enough speed, his rookie season looked promising but he fizzled out fast.

Sinorice Moss- do i need to explain?

2007
LaRon Landry- same as Huff, he has picked it up as of late.

Brandon Merriweather- thought he'd be a CB early in his career and move to safety, but he played well early. Takes too many chances, and always goes for the big hit.

Dwayne Jarrett- Many people thought he was amazing, he looked polished, he ran poorly but he had hands (we thought) and was tall with ability to get separation. What happened?

Paul Pozlusny- giants fans grew annoyed at how he was being mocked to us, we didn't want a slow and injured LB. I would still not take him because he isn't great in coverage, but he is very good vs the run.

2008

Chris Long- didnt like him, thought he was slow and not finesse enough. I eat crow.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie- he could still revert to his playmaking form, but he takes alot of chances and bites big.

Eddie Royal- he showed he could be a good receiver and playmaker, but he is very inconsistent, I thought he'd be like holmes.

Terrell Thomas- didnt like him, thought he wasn't fast enough and didnt make plays. CROW

Reggie Smith- probably my most loved player ever as a prospect, what happened? I thought he would start this year.

Steve Slaton- was good originally, fumbled too much.

The other Hawaii receiver (forget his name)- never happened, didn't like him that much but i was wrong.

2009-

Crabtree- overrated, not nearly as good as I thought he'd be

Clay Matthews- I didn't think much of him, man was I wrong.

Vontae Davis- thought he was a shutdown corner, he isn't performing that well

James Laurinitis- I forget what I said exactly, but I never thought he'd be this good or even a good starter.

Clint Sintim- bust, he could've been good had he been used right or in the right defensive scheme.

Alphonso Smith- he made so many plays and limited Calvin Johnson, but he gives up so much, he's definitely a bust.

Ramses Barden- still up in the air

DeepThreat 12-19-2011 04:11 PM

Hits

Jimmy Graham - Thought he was a first-round pick.

Jason Pierre-Paul - Had him in the top ten.

Jimmy Clausen - Wouldn't have even taken him in the second.

JaMarcus Russell - Said this would happen.

Aaron Curry - Saw him as an average to above-average player.

Jason Smith - Didn't think he was worth a pick until the second half of the first.

B.J. Raji - Thought he was the next Vince Wilfork.

Connor Barwin - Would have taken him in the mid-first.

Misses

Cam Newton - Thought he would suck.

Everette Brown - Saw him as almost on Orakpo's level.

Phil Loadholt - Figured he was, at worst, a great right tackle.

Von Miller - I liked, but didn't love him. Had him ranked 6th.

Andy Dalton - 4th round value in my mind.

Adam Carriker - Thought he was going to be a stud.

Paul 12-19-2011 04:21 PM

Hits
  1. I really really wanted Dallas to pick Patrick Willis if he fell. I thought he was going to be good, but not this good.
  2. I wanted Chris Johnson over Felix sooooo bad in that draft.
  3. No Lie, I was a big Matt Forte fan when he came out.
Misses
  1. Thought Antoine Cason was going to be a Stud
  2. Tank Tyler. oops
  3. Still Early, but Bryan Bulaga hasn't really impressed me from what I've seen

Phins827 12-19-2011 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaLLiN (Post 2794206)
Vontae Davis- thought he was a shutdown corner, he isn't performing that well

huh? He gives up an occasional play, but overall, he is pretty darn good

On topic, my biggest miss was certainly Vernon Gholston. As an Ohio State fan, I watched him tear it up on the college field. I actually wanted Miami to take him #1 overall that year, instead of Jake Long. Luckily, Miami didn't pay attention to me.

DraftSavant 12-19-2011 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeepThreat (Post 2794334)
Hits

Jimmy Graham - Thought he was a first-round pick.

Jason Pierre-Paul - Had him in the top ten.

Jimmy Clausen - Wouldn't have even taken him in the second.

JaMarcus Russell - Said this would happen.

Aaron Curry - Saw him as an average to above-average player.

Jason Smith - Didn't think he was worth a pick until the second half of the first.

B.J. Raji - Thought he was the next Vince Wilfork.

Connor Barwin - Would have taken him in the mid-first.

Misses

Cam Newton - Thought he would suck.

Everette Brown - Saw him as almost on Orakpo's level.

Phil Loadholt - Figured he was, at worst, a great right tackle.

Von Miller - I liked, but didn't love him. Had him ranked 6th.

Andy Dalton - 4th round value in my mind.

Adam Carriker - Thought he was going to be a stud.

Right there with you on Raji and Loadholdt (bleh). And I still don't understand how Jason Smith leapfrogged to the top tackle slot in that draft.


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