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-   -   Luck or Griffin a Bust? (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=50525)

stl705 01-12-2012 11:44 AM

Luck or Griffin a Bust?
 
Right now, NFL draft fans have had a remarkable 2-year run on QBs this year and last year.

It's looking like there could be more than 4 franchise QBs in last year's draft, plus at least another 2 more this year with the "can't miss" prospects of Luck and Griffin. (Along with a few other decent prospects).

Obviously Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are already looking like they have a great future ahead of them, with good play in limited time from Christian Ponder and Jake Locker.

My point is that are we entering a short era of good QBs with very few busts? I'm willing to consider Gabbert a bust already, although he certainly has plenty of time to prove me wrong.

History of the draft has around half (1/3 at the very least) of 1st round QBs as busts or less than average. Last years class surprised me and a lot of people, as I don't think many fans thought it was such a great class. This class is considered by some to be one of the best classes of the decade, but it will surely be near impossible to match last years.

So, I'm wondering if either Luck or Griffin ends up being a bust? Personally, I don't think they will, as do almost everyone else. Luck would have been the best prospect last year, and Griffin would be right behind or tied with Cam Newton imo. Add Barkley and Wilson (a bit lower) next year and you've got a great run of QB prospects now.

I think it's possible both top QBs work out as there really hasn't been too many great QBs before last year (jury still out on Bradford and Freeman, and I think Sanchez is near his end this year or next with the Jets).

Sorry for the long rant, but here's my question... What are the chances one of these top two QBs bust? Both Griffin and Luck aren't showing the laziness of JaMarcus Russel, or the lack of ability like a Brady Quinn, but hindsight obviously trumps guessing games. The prospects are better prospects than Bradford, Freeman, or Sanchez ever were, so is it just an amazing run on QBs? Or will Luck fool us all and become the next Ryan Leaf?

PS: I know a lot of people like this draft class over most, if not all of the past decade; but I see it being too top heavy. I'm not sold on any QBs past Griffin and don't see any of the 2nd-3rd teir being quality starting QBs, except maybe Foles of Arizona.

Mitchell 01-12-2012 12:15 PM

Andrew Luck won't bust. Aside from the athletic types, he's the best college quarterback I have ever seen.

RG3, I have some questions about... But I'm fairly confident that if a team works around him, rather than trying to change him.. He'll have a lot of success.

K Train 01-12-2012 12:23 PM

i think RG3s success is going to be determined by where he goes....cleveland could be the kiss of death to his career

PoopSandwich 01-12-2012 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by K Train (Post 2822358)
i think RG3s success is going to be determined by where he goes....cleveland could be the kiss of death to his career

Based on what?

We have the best left tackle in the game, a good center/left guard, a good running back if we keep Hillis, another first round pick to draft one of the many wide receivers, a huge free agency class to bring some more talent in, one of the best pass defenses in the league.

Cleveland could be a 7 or 8 win team next year, QB was our biggest weakness and Heckertt already said he plans on loading this team up with playmakers this offseason... Not to mention we have the cap to do it.

Spectre 01-12-2012 12:29 PM

Luck could be a "bust" just because of the preposterous hype behind him. If he ends up more Matt Ryan than Peyton Manning, the Colts will be kicking themselves for not taking the mother load of picks.

Griffin could easily be a bust just because he's going to have to transition to an NFL style offense.

I don't think either will, just saying that it's very possible with any prospect, even the safe ones.

rawdawg 01-12-2012 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectre (Post 2822363)
Luck could be a "bust" just because of the preposterous hype behind him. If he ends up more Matt Ryan than Peyton Manning, the Colts will be kicking themselves for not taking the mother load of picks.

Griffin could easily be a bust just because he's going to have to transition to an NFL style offense.

I don't think either will, just saying that it's very possible with any prospect, even the safe ones.

Cam Newton showed that the transition thing is overblown. I think the team needs to transition to Griffin if they want him to be a franchise QB for them. Even still, I think Griffin can be a legit no-gimmick, WCO QB in a couple years.

Complex 01-12-2012 01:10 PM

Luck can't be a bust. He was sent down from the heavens to play football and dominate. Andrew Luck is the Spartacus of Football.

K Train 01-12-2012 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WinslowBodden (Post 2822361)
Based on what?

We have the best left tackle in the game, a good center/left guard, a good running back if we keep Hillis, another first round pick to draft one of the many wide receivers, a huge free agency class to bring some more talent in, one of the best pass defenses in the league.

Cleveland could be a 7 or 8 win team next year, QB was our biggest weakness and Heckertt already said he plans on loading this team up with playmakers this offseason... Not to mention we have the cap to do it.

based on history i suppose...not saying he cant be good there, they have some good pieces but i havent seen a QB do well in cleveland since....ever

SuperPacker 01-12-2012 02:09 PM

If a team is careful with Griffin and treats him a bit like the Panthers have with Newton i think he will be a star. If hes forced the make tons of reads and play in a pro style offense right away he could end up a bust.

Luck could bust if he doesnt live up to the hype but i dont see how he wont be a starting QB for a long time. Even if hes not Peyton Manning 2.0

bruschis4all 01-12-2012 02:54 PM

QB's aren't busting because it's so freakin easy to play qb in the NFL right now. You can't hit em. Some refs don't let you breathe on them. Can't touch their receivers. Yet, those 6'4" 220lb receivers are allowed to push off routinely and were suction cups as gloves. Do I sound like a frustrated defensive guy?

SuperPacker 01-12-2012 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruschis4all (Post 2822614)
QB's aren't busting because it's so freakin easy to play qb in the NFL right now. You can't hit em. Some refs don't let you breathe on them. Can't touch their receivers. Yet, those 6'4" 220lb receivers are allowed to push off routinely and were suction cups as gloves. Do I sound like a frustrated defensive guy?

Blaine Gabbert..

TACKLE 01-12-2012 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruschis4all (Post 2822614)
QB's aren't busting because it's so freakin easy to play qb in the NFL right now. You can't hit em. Some refs don't let you breathe on them. Can't touch their receivers. Yet, those 6'4" 220lb receivers are allowed to push off routinely and were suction cups as gloves. Do I sound like a frustrated defensive guy?

You're right that in the new NFL young QB's aren't crashing and burning like they used to. However the bar has been raised and the expectations for QB's are higher than ever as they should be.

DeathbyStat 01-12-2012 03:13 PM

If Luck busts and i mean completely and totally busts (meaning he is out of the league in three years, barring injury)....then It proves that this whole scouting thing is a complete and utter crap shoot. That mere mortals shouldn't even attempt to analyze on any rational level.

bruschis4all 01-12-2012 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker (Post 2822628)
Blaine Gabbert..

Ha! There is an exception to every rule. Give him time though. Maybe he's one of those old school qb's who sucked their rookie year.

Mitchell 01-12-2012 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruschis4all (Post 2822656)
Ha! There is an exception to every rule. Give him time though. Maybe he's one of those old school qb's who sucked their rookie year.

I wouldn't count on it haha

Babylon 01-12-2012 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker (Post 2822531)
If a team is careful with Griffin and treats him a bit like the Panthers have with Newton i think he will be a star. If hes forced the make tons of reads and play in a pro style offense right away he could end up a bust.

Luck could bust if he doesnt live up to the hype but i dont see how he wont be a starting QB for a long time. Even if hes not Peyton Manning 2.0

I think on the low end Luck will be a Matt Ryan type. I'd reserve the bust label for guys like David Carr, Joey Harrinton and Akile Smith.

stl705 01-12-2012 03:43 PM

I agree that both need to be with a good coach or they could be toast. I don't necessarily see a 3 year and done type of bust with Luck (actually I don't think he'll be a bust at all, but for arguments sake), but possibly a journeyman QB wpuld certainly be considered a bust considering the amount of value the Colts could get in return for the 1st pick.

I think we all forget that the last "can't miss QB" was Eli Manning, who before he won the Superbowl really struggled and could have been considered a near bust his first few seasons. The last "can't miss" QB prospects before that were his brother Peyton and Ryan Leaf haha. Although Luck is getting a lot more hype than any QB in history (new-age social media has a big part in this I believe), certainly no QB is immune to failing. Both these QBs are real smart kids and I think it can be a 04 type of draft with each of the top guys developing into franchise QBs, with this group a little higher potential to hit the superstar plateau of Brady/Brees/Manning/Rodgers.

I think the real crapshoot comes after these two. There will likely be at least 1 other QB in the first (Tannehill), and possibly another one or two in the 1st simply because of the nature of the position. This is where I think teams can get hurt if they reach for Tannehill in the top 15 or some other QB in the first.

Edit: As I talk about the "superstar" 4 quarterbacks, its really interesting that only 1 was considered a superstar QB prospect... Only Manning. Rodgers was almost the #1 pick he came out (I liked him more than Alex Smith), but he still wasn't the Elite prospect and was more in the mold of Sam Bradford.

SuperPacker 01-12-2012 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Babylon (Post 2822695)
I think on the low end Luck will be a Matt Ryan type. I'd reserve the bust label for guys like David Carr, Joey Harrinton and Akile Smith.

But if you think you're getting Peyton Manning but instead you get Matt Ryan it has to go down as a horrible pick!

SuperPacker 01-12-2012 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stl705 (Post 2822702)
I agree that both need to be with a good coach or they could be toast. I don't necessarily see a 3 year and done type of bust with Luck (actually I don't think he'll be a bust at all, but for arguments sake), but possibly a journeyman QB wpuld certainly be considered a bust considering the amount of value the Colts could get in return for the 1st pick.

I think we all forget that the last "can't miss QB" was Eli Manning, who before he won the Superbowl really struggled and could have been considered a near bust his first few seasons. The last "can't miss" QB prospects before that were his brother Peyton and Ryan Leaf haha. Although Luck is getting a lot more hype than any QB in history (new-age social media has a big part in this I believe), certainly no QB is immune to failing. Both these QBs are real smart kids and I think it can be a 04 type of draft with each of the top guys developing into franchise QBs, with this group a little higher potential to hit the superstar plateau of Brady/Brees/Manning/Rodgers.

I think the real crapshoot comes after these two. There will likely be at least 1 other QB in the first (Tannehill), and possibly another one or two in the 1st simply because of the nature of the position. This is where I think teams can get hurt if they reach for Tannehill in the top 15 or some other QB in the first.

Edit: As I talk about the "superstar" 4 quarterbacks, its really interesting that only 1 was considered a superstar QB prospect... Only Manning. Rodgers was almost the #1 pick he came out (I liked him more than Alex Smith), but he still wasn't the Elite prospect and was more in the mold of Sam Bradford.

And then you look at the names of QB's taken 1st and its just an average sight. Palmer, Manning, Ryan, Bradford etc... It shows that QB is a lot more than just physical tools. You have to be the hardest working player on the team.

stl705 01-12-2012 04:07 PM

@Superpacker:

I agree, although noone can argue how smart these two top guys are. A degree from Stanford speaks for itself, and RG3 is rumored to be one of the smartest guys on the Baylor team. Both also handle themselves extremely well (especially RG3 because he's had a bit more air-time this past year).

I think that the smarts both these QBs exhibit will be what allows them to succeed at the next level. Some people may have argued how smart Cam Newton was, but the kid never said the wrong things, and I think that certainly shows a level of intelligence and maturity.

jrdrylie 01-12-2012 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker (Post 2822628)
Blaine Gabbert..

Gabbert's biggest weakness is he is scared of being hit. You watch him and if there is even the slightest chance that the pocket could possibly get clogged within the next five seconds, he pisses himself and curls up into the fetal position. The funny thing is, he shouldn't be afraid of being hit because defenders aren't allowed to hit QBs.

bornnraisedwhodat 01-12-2012 04:24 PM

I dont think either would bust. Luck will have a Matt Ryan esque type of first few years in the league, which is solid, but people will scrutinize him to death and wonder why he hasnt won a SB yet.

Griffins will be a guy who I think will put up great stats, but the team he will play for will suck and he wont have a good winning record.

brat316 01-12-2012 04:27 PM

Hiesman trophy winners are proven to bust. But Tebow looking like he is going to break it. Only reason I didn't want Griffin to win it.

SuperPacker 01-12-2012 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bornnraisedwhodat (Post 2822746)
Griffins will be a guy who I think will put up great stats, but the team he will play for will suck and he wont have a good winning record.

You're just saying that because the same thing has happened with Cam Newton. Just cus they are both black athletic quarterbacks it dont mean their careers will take the same path.

dannyz 01-12-2012 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stl705 (Post 2822731)
@Superpacker:

I agree, although noone can argue how smart these two top guys are. A degree from Stanford speaks for itself, and RG3 is rumored to be one of the smartest guys on the Baylor team. Both also handle themselves extremely well (especially RG3 because he's had a bit more air-time this past year).

I think that the smarts both these QBs exhibit will be what allows them to succeed at the next level. Some people may have argued how smart Cam Newton was, but the kid never said the wrong things, and I think that certainly shows a level of intelligence and maturity.

I think this is the Reason both QB's will be Great. You can measure the Height,Weight,Arm Strength but you can never know how a guy will do Mentally or if they have the Drive and Work Ethics to be Great. I think this is what Separates them from any QB Bust.


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