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-   -   Predict Your Team's Draft Picks Who Fail (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52722)

Mr. Goosemahn 04-29-2012 04:20 PM

Predict Your Team's Draft Picks Who Fail
 
Every year, every team drafts players who fail, or simply don't meet expectations. Who do you think they'll be for your team, and why?

For the Steelers:

3rd round LB Sean Spence, Miami

I like his instincts and the energy with which he plays, but he's very small and struggles with shedding blocks. I think he's not a perfect fit for the 3-4, and if they stick him besides Timmons at some point, it will just be bad. I think he's a good ST player and solid depth at best, but I expect more from a 3rd rounder, since we've gotten some good picks there in recent years (most notably Mike Wallace).

7th round OT Kelvin Beachum, SMU

He's a good kid from what I've read, a good guy, but he's small and not very powerful, even downright soft at times. Will probably have to kick inside to guard, but with the other guys we acquired (DeCastro in the first, Mike Adams moves Willie Colon inside too) he probably won't have a roster spot and will make the practice squad for a year, before being released. I know it's a seventh rounder, but I expect next to nothing from him, another off-season body for us.

vidae 04-29-2012 04:21 PM

I guess I'll go with 7th round pick Jerome Long. Not because I think he'll necessarily be bad, but because I don't see him sticking with the team. We're pretty deep at 5tech as it stands right now.

SuperPacker 04-29-2012 04:29 PM

The part of the draft no fan will accept although it happens every year. I love it!

I'm not saying these players will bust, but im not blinded of the fact that they could:

Nick Perry - I love the pick, but its still to be seen how he transitions to the 3-4. He has stiff hips which needs to be fixed and right now weighs 270 pounds.

Andrew Datko - He could be so injury prone he never sees the field. Thats why he went 7th round, not 2nd.

Rosebud 04-29-2012 04:49 PM

At least one of McCants or Mosley, and Randle in that he never actually becomes a deep threat the way we need when Cruz moves into the slot.

The Alex 04-29-2012 04:51 PM

Coty Sensabaugh. I just don't think he'll be anything more than a 4th corner.

Mr. Goosemahn 04-29-2012 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker (Post 2978388)
The part of the draft no fan will accept although it happens every year. I love it!

Haha, indeed! 50% of first rounders will bust, let alone from all the other rounds.

Just for the sake of discussion, here are the first round busts from 2007-2009, since I think 10 and 11 are too close to call.

2007
1. QB JaMarcus Russell, Oakland
4. DE Gaines Adams, Tampa Bay
5. OT Levi Brown, Arizona
8. DE Jamal Anderson, Atlanta
9. WR Ted Ginn, Jr., Miami
10. DT Amobi Okoye, Houston
13. DT Adam Carriker, St. Louis
16. DT Justin Harrell, Green Bay
17. DE Jarvis Moss, Denver
21. S Reggie Nelson, Jacksonville
22. QB Brady Quinn, Cleveland
24. S Brandon Meriweather, New England
30. WR Craig Davis, San Diego
32. WR Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis

2008
6. DE Vernon Gholston, New York Jets
7. DT Sedrick Ellis, New Orleans
8. DE Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville
9. LB Keith Rivers, Cincinnati
11. CB Leodis McKelvin, Buffalo
13. OT Chris Williams, Chicago
17. OT Gosder Cherilus, Detroit
21. OT Sam Baker, Atlanta
25. CB Mike Jenkins, Dallas
27. CB Antoine Cason, San Diego
28. DE Lawrence Jackson, Seattle
29. DT Kentwan Balmer, San Francisco

2009 - I'm being generous with some guys here, could include more
2. OT Jason Smith, St. Louis
4. LB Aaron Curry, Seattle
11. DE Aaron Maybin, Buffalo
12. RB Knowshon Moreno, Denver
16. DE Larry English, San Diego
18. DE Robert Ayers, Denver
24. DT Peria Jerry, Atlanta
26. RB Donald Brown, Indianapolis

So who will they be this year?

SuperPacker 04-29-2012 05:04 PM

Im not saying all these guys will bust, but assuming the 50% thing, i've got 14 guys.

2012
4. Matt Kalil
8. Ryan Tannehill
9. Luke Kuechly
10. Stephon Gilmore
11. Dontari Poe
12. Fletcher Cox
16. Quinton Coples
18. Melvin Ingram
19. Shea McCellin
20. Kendall Wright
21. Chandler Jones
22. Brandon Weeden
28. Nick Perry
32. David Wilson

Lil Quip 04-29-2012 05:08 PM

For the Pats:

Chandler Jones/Bequette

Both turning out would be awesome, but I have to hedge my bets. I think at least one turns in to that olb/de pass rusher we really need.

Tavon Wilson

Who the heck knows with this pick. Reminds me of the safety pick by the raiders a couple years back. At least we had a nice first instead of DHB.

I can't put anyone past the fourth as a 'bust.' These guys work or don't, but never bust.

I would be infinitely surprised if Hightower busts. He may not ever make a PB, but he screams worthwhile contributor for a long time.

The Alex 04-29-2012 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Goosemahn (Post 2978425)
Haha, indeed! 50% of first rounders will bust, let alone from all the other rounds.

Just for the sake of discussion, here are the first round busts from 2007-2009, since I think 10 and 11 are too close to call.

2007
9. WR Ted Ginn, Jr., Miami
21. S Reggie Nelson, Jacksonville
24. S Brandon Meriweather, New England

2008
7. DT Sedrick Ellis, New Orleans
9. LB Keith Rivers, Cincinnati
11. CB Leodis McKelvin, Buffalo
21. OT Sam Baker, Atlanta
27. CB Antoine Cason, San Diego

2009
24. DT Peria Jerry, Atlanta

I disagree with all of these to some extent. None of them are spectacular but they've had decent season or two thus far. In Jerry's case, I think he's a victim of injury from his rookie season. I know Ginn is a garbage receiver but he's easily one of the top return guys in the league.

SuperPacker 04-29-2012 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Alex (Post 2978473)
I disagree with all of these to some extent. None of them are spectacular but they've had decent season or two thus far. In Jerry's case, I think he's a victim of injury from his rookie season. I know Ginn is a garbage receiver but he's easily one of the top return guys in the league.

Are you serious? When you pick a guy in the first round you expect them to be a solid starter for 10 years. If you're picking top 10 you want him to be a pro bowler.

All of these guys have been busts.

vidae 04-29-2012 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker (Post 2978436)
Im not saying all these guys will bust, but assuming the 50% thing, i've got 14 guys.

2012
4. Matt Kalil
8. Ryan Tannehill
9. Luke Kuechly
10. Stephon Gilmore
11. Dontari Poe
12. Fletcher Cox
16. Quinton Coples
18. Melvin Ingram
19. Shea McCellin
20. Kendall Wright
21. Chandler Jones
22. Brandon Weeden
28. Nick Perry
32. David Wilson

I will end you.

The Alex 04-29-2012 05:49 PM

I think you can find bigger busts from those years than the guys listed. They might have not been picked as high but they never did a damn thing. I'm talking about bums like this guy:



50th overall pick, 34 career carries.

I'd much rather have Brandon Meriweather than that piece of trash.

Timbathia 04-29-2012 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker (Post 2978477)
Are you serious? When you pick a guy in the first round you expect them to be a solid starter for 10 years. If you're picking top 10 you want him to be a pro bowler.

All of these guys have been busts.

I dont count Robert Ayers as a bust. He is a solid player taken at #18. Jarvis Moss, now he is a bust (and we traded up to get him as well). **** me.

armageddon 04-29-2012 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Goosemahn (Post 2978425)
Haha, indeed! 50% of first rounders will bust, let alone from all the other rounds.

Just for the sake of discussion, here are the first round busts from 2007-2009, since I think 10 and 11 are too close to call.

2007
1. QB JaMarcus Russell, Oakland
4. DE Gaines Adams, Tampa Bay
5. OT Levi Brown, Arizona
8. DE Jamal Anderson, Atlanta
9. WR Ted Ginn, Jr., Miami
10. DT Amobi Okoye, Houston
13. DT Adam Carriker, St. Louis
16. DT Justin Harrell, Green Bay
17. DE Jarvis Moss, Denver
21. S Reggie Nelson, Jacksonville
22. QB Brady Quinn, Cleveland
24. S Brandon Meriweather, New England
30. WR Craig Davis, San Diego
32. WR Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis

2008
6. DE Vernon Gholston, New York Jets
7. DT Sedrick Ellis, New Orleans
8. DE Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville
9. LB Keith Rivers, Cincinnati
11. CB Leodis McKelvin, Buffalo
13. OT Chris Williams, Chicago
17. OT Gosder Cherilus, Detroit
21. OT Sam Baker, Atlanta
25. CB Mike Jenkins, Dallas
27. CB Antoine Cason, San Diego
28. DE Lawrence Jackson, Seattle
29. DT Kentwan Balmer, San Francisco

2009 - I'm being generous with some guys here, could include more
2. OT Jason Smith, St. Louis
4. LB Aaron Curry, Seattle
11. DE Aaron Maybin, Buffalo
12. RB Knowshon Moreno, Denver
16. DE Larry English, San Diego
18. DE Robert Ayers, Denver
24. DT Peria Jerry, Atlanta
26. RB Donald Brown, Indianapolis

So who will they be this year?



Not yet. They say he's healthy and looks good. The Rams new o-line coach said it was his poor technique that was hindering him too. He said Smith would try to punish the defender on each play, instead of just trying to block him. He said he can fix Smith's flaws and Smith will be a really good RT.

FrankGore 04-29-2012 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by armageddon (Post 2978497)
Not yet. They say he's healthy and looks good. The Rams new o-line coach said it was his poor technique that was hindering him too. He said Smith would try to punish the defender on each play, instead of just trying to block him. He said he can fix Smith's flaws and Smith will be a really good RT.

Well I'm glad he cleared all that up for us, lol.

Mr. Goosemahn 04-29-2012 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Alex (Post 2978473)
I disagree with all of these to some extent. None of them are spectacular but they've had decent season or two thus far. In Jerry's case, I think he's a victim of injury from his rookie season. I know Ginn is a garbage receiver but he's easily one of the top return guys in the league.

I agree that some of them have had salvageable seasons, but that is unacceptable for a first rounder. First rounders are expected to be solid starters, at worst.

2007
9. WR Ted Ginn, Jr., Miami Good returner, yes, terrible at everything else. There is absolutely no way of justifying drafting a returner top 10, even if he is Devin Hester.
21. S Reggie Nelson, Jacksonville He plays better than he is, if that makes any sense. The Bengals' system helps hide some of his weaknesses, and he was traded away after 4 years.
24. S Brandon Meriweather, New England Had some good games at times, but he was cut after 4 years, and I think he'll be out of the league in 2.

2008
7. DT Sedrick Ellis, New Orleans Probably one of the better players on the list. Still, he has not come close to live up to the billing of being the seventh overall pick.
9. LB Keith Rivers, Cincinnati Traded away for a fifth this year and injuries have prevented him from being consistently good.
11. CB Leodis McKelvin, Buffalo He hasn't amounted to absolutely anything. Bills have drafted CBs with early picks in consecutive years, Aaron Williams and Stephon Gilmore.
21. OT Sam Baker, Atlanta He's bad. People remember him from USC and being a first rounder, but he's bad, and his continually dinged up back doesn't help him.
27. CB Antoine Cason, San Diego

2009
24. DT Peria Jerry, Atlanta knee injury as a rookie absolutely destroyed him

Brent 04-29-2012 06:24 PM

expectations vs. predicted results? LaMichael James.

ATLDirtyBirds 04-29-2012 06:29 PM

I'm not sure how you define late rounds picks "failing". None of the Falcons late round picks are going to be anything more than depth, or a below average starting FB. But I'd be pretty surprised if Lamar Holmes is in the NFL in a few years, awful, awful pick.

Mr. Goosemahn 04-29-2012 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by armageddon (Post 2978497)
Not yet. They say he's healthy and looks good. The Rams new o-line coach said it was his poor technique that was hindering him too. He said Smith would try to punish the defender on each play, instead of just trying to block him. He said he can fix Smith's flaws and Smith will be a really good RT.

I'd say he's clearly a bust right now, but he could turn it around I guess. Compared to other tackles (or other players, for that matter) taken Top 5 in previous years, he hasn't done anything noteworthy.

He's also probably one of the worst tackles out of all the ones selected in the first two rounds in 2009. Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Phil Loadholt, Sebastian Vollmer, give me any of those guys before Smith. Maybe even Andre Smith too.

He's been injured, so you could call him an Injury Bust, but the fact of the matter is that he hasn't lived up to the expectations of a second overall pick.

Mr. Goosemahn 04-29-2012 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATLDirtyBirds (Post 2978545)
I'm not sure how you define late rounds picks "failing". None of the Falcons late round picks are going to be anything more than depth, or a below average starting FB. But I'd be pretty surprised if Lamar Holmes is in the NFL in a few years, awful, awful pick.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking for guys from later rounds. Players who won't make the roster or contribute anything of note, even as depth/situational guys.

Sportsfan486 04-29-2012 06:59 PM

Casey Hayward for the Packers.

I like him but his lack of straight-line speed and the fact we'll probably make him practice some as a safety, increasing the difficulty of an already brutal transition, could wipe him out.

He's also known more for zone coverage than man and we're primarily a man team with our corners.

As for some first rounders..

Dontari Poe is going to show up to camp out of shape big team and will be a huge bust.

Justin Blackmon will max out as a poor man's Michael Crabtree (which isn't a good thing.)

Mark Barron will get burnt deep.. a lot.

Shea McClellin will do absolutely nothing.

Quinton Coples may put a shotgun round in his head as he gets stuck as a non-playmaking 3-4 DE.

Andrew Luck will max out as a 4,000 25/15 guy aka Matt Schaub.

armageddon 04-29-2012 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Goosemahn (Post 2978552)
I'd say he's clearly a bust right now, but he could turn it around I guess. Compared to other tackles (or other players, for that matter) taken Top 5 in previous years, he hasn't done anything noteworthy.

He's also probably one of the worst tackles out of all the ones selected in the first two rounds in 2009. Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Phil Loadholt, Sebastian Vollmer, give me any of those guys before Smith. Maybe even Andre Smith too.

He's been injured, so you could call him an Injury Bust, but the fact of the matter is that he hasn't lived up to the expectations of a second overall pick.





Smith has also had one of the worst o-line coaches in history.

Saints-Tigers 04-29-2012 07:05 PM

I'll say Nick Toon. The Saints seem to only hit on guys that go to schools I've never heard of (We picked a guy from Vagina in the 3rd round apparently).

Pat Sims 90 04-29-2012 07:10 PM

Dan Herron is the only draft pick the Bengals made that i see having a hard time making the team.

Cbrunn 04-29-2012 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Goosemahn (Post 2978381)
Every year, every team drafts players who fail, or simply don't meet expectations. Who do you think they'll be for your team, and why?

For the Steelers:

3rd round LB Sean Spence, Miami

I like his instincts and the energy with which he plays, but he's very small and struggles with shedding blocks. I think he's not a perfect fit for the 3-4, and if they stick him besides Timmons at some point, it will just be bad. I think he's a good ST player and solid depth at best, but I expect more from a 3rd rounder, since we've gotten some good picks there in recent years (most notably Mike Wallace).

7th round OT Kelvin Beachum, SMU

He's a good kid from what I've read, a good guy, but he's small and not very powerful, even downright soft at times. Will probably have to kick inside to guard, but with the other guys we acquired (DeCastro in the first, Mike Adams moves Willie Colon inside too) he probably won't have a roster spot and will make the practice squad for a year, before being released. I know it's a seventh rounder, but I expect next to nothing from him, another off-season body for us.

They say Beachum can Long Snap ... so he'll take the long snapper roster spot... but be able to provide oline help IF needed... that's at least what i read


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