2013 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings and Reports
 

I need to do more work on E.J. Manuel, Denard Robinson, etc. before I post their scouting reports but I figured I'd post the notes I took last year on some of the top quarterback prospects in this draft class since people seem interested in discussing 2013 already. Let me know what you think!

Matt Barkley, Southern California (6'1", 220, 4.75)

Positives:

• Possesses excellent competitiveness, work ethic, leadership ability, and composure
• Footwork is already very polished both from under center and in the shotgun
• Arm strength is more than adequate to make all of the throws in the NFL
• Has outstanding accuracy and touch when throwing the deep ball/fade
• Does a great job executing screens of all varieties (running backs, receivers, rollouts)
• Timing on all throws is exceptional and can see plays before they develop
• Extremely good velocity and ball placement when throwing on bootlegs
• Lots of experience in Southern California’s pro-style offense under Lane Kiffin
• Manipulates the defense effectively with his eyes as well as with his ball fakes
• Can create a little bit of time with his mobility inside the pocket
• Has three years of starting experience already and has improved substantially each year

Negatives:

• Height is a little bit less than ideal for an NFL quarterback; measurement may be important
• Occasionally takes too many chances with the ball which lead to turnovers
• Balls can sail on him at times when he gets impatient and throws off the back foot
• Arm strength is not elite; lacks the cannon of someone like Matthew Stafford

Grade: First round

Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech* (6’5”, 255, 4.65)

Positives:

• Outstanding size and bulk; physically reminiscent of Cam Newton
• Looked very composed in his first season as the starting quarterback
• Footwork is surprisingly advanced for an underclassman
• Has an over-the-top throwing motion with a quick release
• Has operated from under center at times in college
• Arm strength is strong enough to make all NFL throws
• Uses the proper amount of touch on the ball; very catchable passer
• Looks to throw first and run second; uses mobility to buy time
• Has strong instincts and a lot of power when running the ball
• Makes sound decisions with the ball on the read-option

Negatives:

• Has only one year of starting experience thus far
• Takes most of his snaps from out of the shotgun
• Misses low too often on his throws (intermediate)
• Makes too many of his throws off of his back foot
• Must learn to protect his body more on the run
• Not quite the same athlete as someone like Cam Newton
• Had some issues with ball security (as well as handling shotgun snaps)

Grade: First round

Aaron Murray, Georgia* (6’1”, 210, 4.75)

Positives:

• Has an over-the-top throwing motion along with a very quick release
• Footwork is already very polished and looks natural dropping back and moving in the pocket
• Knows how to look the safety off and goes through progressions if receivers are covered
• Is a very accurate passer when throwing to all levels of the field
• Throws a nice spiral and has enough zip to fit the ball into tight spaces
• Ability to throw accurately on the run will be very appealing to west coast offenses
• Sells his fakes very well on the play-action pass
• Very confident and makes decisions with the ball quickly
• Competitiveness on the field is outstanding; plays with a lot of heart
• Athletic enough to escape defenders and gain yards on the move
• Plays in the SEC against some of the best defenses in college football
• Cadence has led defenders to jump offsides

Negatives:

• Does not possess ideal height for an NFL quarterback
• Durability could become an issue (reckless and exposes himself to big hits)
• Ball security is an issue and has had some fumbling problems
• Was forced to redshirt as a freshman due to a shoulder injury

Grade: First round

Tyler Wilson, Arkansas (6'3", 220, 4.80)

Positives:

• Has desirable height for an NFL quarterback and enough bulk to hold up
• Played in a pro-style spread offense under coach Bobby Petrino
• Has experience working from under center and turning his back to the defense
• Has a quick release and is confident pushing the ball down the field
• Arm strength is excellent and can rifle the ball downfield with zip to all areas
• Tight windows are no problem and can stick it to a receiver in coverage
• Generally accurate passer who uses the proper amount of touch most of the time
• Is willing to throw covered receivers open by making anticipatory throws
• Has some scrambling ability and is somewhat accurate on the run as well
• Play fakes are effective; does a nice job of selling the handoff

Negatives:

• Footwork looks clumsy at times and will require some work on his drops
• The arm angle on his delivery is extremely inconsistent and side-arms it at times (especially on the run)
• Balls can occasionally sail on him due to inconsistent footwork and mechanics
• Needs to do a better job of keeping the ball down in order to protect receivers
• Stares down his targets too often and needs work in regards to looking off the safety
• Ball security could be an issue; needs to do a better job of avoiding fumbles
• The majority of his throws are on pre-determined reads out of the shotgun
• Can be overly aggressive and throw into coverage positioned to make a play on the ball
• Will only have two years of starting experience in five seasons at Arkansas

Grade: First round

Tyler Bray, Tennessee* (6’5”, 210, 5.15)

Positives:

• Excellent height and will be one of the tallest NFL quarterbacks
• Throwing motion won’t require many adjustments in the NFL
• Does a nice job of stepping into his throws when given time
• Gets great zip on the ball to all areas of the field and can throw into tight spaces
• Anticipates wide receivers getting open/gives people chances to make plays
• Already has lots of experience playing against SEC defenses
• Does not operate exclusively out of the shotgun; has also worked under center
• Has a little bit escapability in the pocket especially against an edge rush
• Highly competitive on-field demeanor who plays with some swagger

Negatives:

• Needs to add a significant amount of bulk in order to withstand punishment
• Many of his throws are based off of predetermined reads (must check down more)
• Most of his snaps have been taken out of the shotgun
• Can get too aggressive with the ball and needs to throw it away more often
• Inconsistent footwork and looks clumsy and uncoordinated in his drops
• Needs to put more touch on the ball while throwing intermediate routes
• Must improve ball security while scrambling (holds the ball away from his body)
• Work ethic is an issue after admitting to being “lazy” in 2011
• Did not play very well against top competition and padded his stats against weaker teams

Grade: First or second round

E.J. Manuel, Florida St. (6’4”, 245, 4.60)

Positives:

• Possesses excellent size and bulk for an NFL quarterback
• Very intelligent, has already graduated from Florida St. (pursuing Master’s)
• Was given the freedom to make audibles based on the defense
• Already has a lot of experience dropping back from under center
• Footwork is very impressive after only a year and a half as the starter
• Has a quick release along with an over-the-top throwing motion
• Arm is strong enough to make throws to all areas with velocity
• Can challenge defenses with his feet (used on read options/designed runs)
• Will have almost three years of starting experience after the upcoming season

Negatives:

• Occasionally makes some poor decisions with the ball (forces throws)
• Locks onto his primary target and must go through more progressions
• Must improve timing (deliver passes quicker and earlier in routes)
• Inconsistent game-to-game in terms of performance/production
• Does not run with as much authority as his size should allow him to
• Ball security could be an issue (fumble at goal line vs. Florida)

Grade: Second round

Landry Jones, Oklahoma (6’4”, 230, 4.75)

Positives:

• Possesses prototypical size and bulk for an NFL quarterback
• Has a quick delivery and gets the ball out very early
• Footwork is already fairly clean but could step into his throws more
• Arm strength is good enough to make every NFL throw
• Athletic enough to escape the rush and gain yardage
• Is effective at operating the short passing game (screens)
• Does a respectable job of throwing the ball on the run (especially short)
• Has extensive starting experience and has been very productive
• Tough and will take a hit in order to make a throw

Negatives:

• Throwing motion is inconsistent; alters arm angles too much
• Play-action passes look a little bit lazy; does not sell very well
• Waits for open receivers rather than making anticipatory throws
• Will have to learn how to look off the safety when he gets to the NFL
• Not an incredibly accurate passer and must improve ball placement
• Often throws the ball a little bit too soft and could use more zip
• A lot of his throws have lack a tight spiral and can be difficult to catch
• Plays in a spread offense with a lot of predetermined reads

Grade: Second or third round

Mike Glennon, North Carolina St. (6'4", 225, 4.85)

Positives:

• Possesses the height and bulk to start as an NFL quarterback
• Has a very powerful arm and can rocket the ball downfield
• Quick in his drop-back and gets the ball out in a hurry
• Consistently throws a tight spiral to all levels of the field
• Has the ability to zip the ball into tight windows if necessary
• Excels at throwing seam routes because of his arm strength
• His timing on intermediate routes is outstanding

Negatives:

• Almost all of his throws were based off of predetermined reads
• Robotic; does not recognize defenses and make necessary adjustments
• Needs to work on stepping into his throws (feet too close together)
• Decision-making is very questionable which leads to turnovers
• Overly confident in his arm and does not consider alternative options
• Occasionally sprays the ball when throwing downfield
• Needs to improve his touch; puts too much on the ball on short throws
• Ball placement requires improvement; often throws too low

Grade: Third round

Geno Smith, West Virginia (6’3”, 215, 4.80)

Positives:

• Has enough height and bulk to satisfy any NFL team’s size requirements
• Gets great zip on the ball and can push the ball downfield in a hurry
• Does a nice job of stepping into throws when going downfield
• Has a quick release as well as a three-quarters throwing motion
• Effective on bootlegs and can challenge the defense with his athleticism
• Is able to elude defenders in the backfield in order to buy more time
• Confident in his ability to make throws into small windows
• Looks to throw first and run only in order to buy time for his receivers

Negatives:

• Lacks touch with the ball and looks to throw as hard as possible all the time
• Forces the ball into tight coverage and tries to make throws that aren’t there
• Frequently lets balls sail and is not an accurate passer; struggles on seam routes
• Takes almost all of his snaps out of the shotgun in a simplified spread offense
• Stares down targets and does not utilize his checkdowns very effectively
• Can be fooled by defenses and occasionally takes far too long to make throws

Grade: Fourth round

I love your work RoP.

You do a fantastic job!

Thanks! I really appreciate it. Let me know if you want me to look into any other prospects.

I'd love to see your views on Mike Glennon's prospects as well as things he may need to improve upon to move up the draft boards.

Good point.

And to expand on that issue, one could argue with a real breakout year and productive year, any one of these senior or junior quarterbacks could be 1st round picks. All have that type of ability, just will come down to who performs the best and who under achieves and cannot reach their accomplishments from a year ago.

Matt Barkley USC
Logan Thomas Virginia Tech
Tyler Wilson Arkansas
Aaron Murray Georgia
Tyler Bray Tennessee
Mike Glennon NC State
Landry Jones Oklahoma
Geno Smith West Virginia
EJ Manuel Florida State
AJ McCarron Alabama
Danny O'Brien Wisconsin

Great work!

My personal opinions about these QBs: Smith is the best pure passer in this group. He plays in that system that produced all those Texas Tech QBs, but he is legit with how he throws the ball. Very good upside and I don't see how he doesn't get into the 1st or 2nd round next year even if teams put a 3rd round grade on him due to the fact that late 1st grade QBs like Tannehill get pushed into the top 10 and 3rd round grade QBs like Josh Freeman get pushed into the top 20.

On that note, Aaron Murray is a guy I see dropping down into round 2 or 3 because of his height. 6'1" tops, more likely 6'0" or 5'11". Absolutely no way this guy is a first round QB IMO. They won't draft 6 foot tall QBs that high in the NFL no matter how good he looks, and Murray has been good but not that good.

It will be interesting to watch Tyler Wilson this year after losing all of his WRs and Bobby Petrino - the coach who always makes QBs look way better than they really are with his system.

Appreciate the work.

I just don't get the Aaron Murray love. If he goes any higher that the 3rd round, that's a massive reach in my opinion.

I have to agree, he could be a 1st round guy with a great year, but at times he looks pretty average. But if he shows on the field leadership this year he has not in the past that will help his case.



Very true, will be interesting how he does without all those receivers too, only the TE and Hamilton are back that have real talent, but Wade could be a good one also. Real surprised Garrick McGee is not the coach yet at Arkansas, the guy would be perfect and was a huge reason they were so good in my opinion. Real interested to see how Brandon Mitchell turns out for them as well!

I'm going to take a look and get back to you, let's shoot for sometime today!

Murray is at least a leader by example; he routinely puts his body on the line in order to win. That was actually one of my negatives in the scouting report though because he took a bunch of huge hits in the games I watched.

Nice write up of all the QBs

Not a Logan Thomas - he was pretty good his first year but it seemed like he was lacking something. I think their are 5 QBs that should go before him. For all the Newton comparisons he did not really make many game changing plays with his feet. He lost Boykin, Coale and Wilson so it will be interesting to see if that impacts his play this year.

Tyler Wilson will have a very good year - he lit up the spring game. I don't think Petrino's loss will impact his game much. For all the talk of Petrino system QB's - the two that did not make it were LeFors and Brohm. Brohm was a huge bust but LeFors was undersized and the definition of college QB. Mallet would of been a first rounder but character questions caused his drop. Wilson is probably the most well rounded QB prospect.

I would also like to see a write up on Glennon. He ended last year on fire, I think he has a shot to go round 1 with a good season.

Wilson has a great arm but his mechanics (especially his throwing motion) are very inconsistent; he sidearms way too many passes and needs to clean up his footwork as well so I'd like to see improvements in those two areas this year. Logan Thomas looks a lot more advanced in that regard which is why I have him ahead at this point, although I'll agree that he's not the athletic freak that Cam Newton is (more of a Josh Freeman/Ben Roethlisberger type of athlete.)

Just added a scouting report for E.J. Manuel after reviewing the Florida game. I also watched him against Oklahoma, Boston College, Miami, and Notre Dame last season although my focus was more relaxed last season. I'm going to watch Mike Glennon next. There's a video of him online in case anyone wants to watch him for themselves:



I may download another of Glennon's games as well.

Glennon has a cannon...that throw at :55 seconds was awesome

Just posted my notes on Glennon!

I guess it was a great throw since it was completed but it wasn't really a good decision.

But, awesome work RoP!

Completely agree on just about everything you noted. A couple things I will point out:
a) he's listed at 6'6" 232#
b) isn't EVERY read predetermined? I get that he mostly goes with his first pre-snap read, but he's in a west coast offensive system that the QB's are not really given full reign to toy with on the fly.

With that said, your 3rd round grade is fair at the moment, but I could definitely see him rocket up boards once the combine comes around. Nice to know your thoughts though.

I would love the Raiders to land someone like Wilson. I would ideally like Barkley or Bray but doubt we're in position to draft any of em.

He just seems to attempt a pass to his primary target every time regardless of coverage/defense; I'd like to see him go to his second or third options rather than trying to rifle it in there.

I'm really looking forward to hearing what you think of Denard Robinson. This will be his second season in a pro-style system, and I'm wondering if you think it's possible for him to improve enough to be given a shot at QB. I'm just as interested in his projection at other positions (most likely at WR, IMO).

I'm going to comment on a little bit of everything for Robinson. I'll try watching Michigan's bowl game against Virginia Tech in the next few days and writing up something.

Denard Robinson is going to be a divisive prospect I imagine. Move to WR seems pretty likely.

He'll be better in the NFL than Tebow!

If the Jets and Tebow have success in using him and Sanchez together right, I could see Robinsons stock rise a lot like Pat White did when the wildcat was the new thing to do on offense. Robinson is obviously a better athlete and football player, and a team with a struggling young QB could try and adapt to a 2 QB type system and use Robinson as slot WR and return man as well.

You don't think Robinson will come out next year do you?