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-   -   2012 Busts (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=53621)

jrdrylie 08-23-2012 10:46 AM

2012 Busts
 
We had some success with breakout players so I thought we'd list the guys we think could bust.

Rules:
1. No rookies
2. They had to be good last year, so we can't say Blaine Gabbert
3. It can't be somebody who is out for the season with injury

Edit: Apparently the word bust is throwing people off. I'm not talking about draft busts. I'm talking about good players who will have disappointing seasons.

QB: Andy Dalton- I think he takes a step back. I don't know if it will be quite as bad as the Colt McCoy dropoff of last year, but I think he'll drop off enough to cause Cincinnati to go 7-9.

RB: Maurice Jones-Drew- Players who lead the league in carries always have a pretty significant dropoff the next year. Players with long holdouts often face dropoffs in production and injuries. I think 1085 yards and 5 TDs is where he ends up.

WR: The Jacksons- I couldn't narrow this down to one and I have the same reason for both of them so I'm listing DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson. Both of those guys just seem like guys who will take the big money and then take it easier. I also don't like the QB situations. I'm not high on Freeman and Vick is an injury waiting to happen.

TE: Dallas Clark- I really don't think he counts, but there isn't anyone else. I have heard some people call Clark a good pick up for Tampa Bay. But the guy is done.

DE: Mark Anderson- He got double digits sacks last year but he is highly inconsistent. Buffalo fans hoping he reproduces those numbers are likely going to be very disappointed.

DT: Cullen Jenkins- I'm basing this solely on the argument he had with Andy Reid on the sidelines last week.

LB: Pat Angerer- He racked up a ton of tackles last year. But I think his overall numbers will take a hit as the Colts move to a new defense.

CB: Stanford Routt- He signed a pretty decent deal with the Chiefs to help replace Brandon Carr. I think he's a pretty significant downgrade.

S: Troy Polamalu- I think he is overrated anyway. He's always fighting injuries and I think this year is the season we will all look back on as the point where Troy started to go downhill.

BeerBaron 08-23-2012 12:15 PM

"Bust" is harsh for some of those. Dalton (and perhaps even Newton) will likely face a bit of a sophomore slump (it exists as a term for a reason,) but I don't know if they'll have flat out awful seasons.

Also, Angerer had surgery for a foot injury and will likely miss the first few weeks of the regular season.

If we're talking about guys who might be considered busts after this year, I have some names to throw out.

Sam Bradford - I think he'll be closer to a bust by the end of this year than anything resembling a quality NFL QB.

Mark Sanchez - Sticking with my "benched by week 6" prediction. I don't know how they'd justify keeping him around if that happens after this year, money be damned.

Jason Smith - Already been benched for the awful Barry Richardson. Would have been cut if not for taking a huge pay cut. Underrated in how bad of pick he was.

Kevin Kolb - Not exactly going out on a limb here...I bet he's cut after this season. Would be sooner if they had any other QB on the roster who could back up Skelton.

Shonne Green - Simply isn't a guy who can carry the full load in the NFL.

Blaine Gabbert - Anyone who has ever read any of my posts in the NFL section should know why.

Matt Cassel - Best case scenario, that team drags him to 10 wins again. Worst case (or perhaps it really is the best case,) he continues to be mediocre-average and the team decides to move on.

Carson Palmer - Proves to be one of the worst trades in NFL history, setting the Raiders back 5 years.

jrdrylie 08-23-2012 12:34 PM

I'm not saying MJD and the Jackson's are busts in the sense of busted draft picks. I'm saying they both have high expectations this year and will disappoint. So maybe 2012 Disappointments would be a better title.

K Train 08-23-2012 12:38 PM

Issac Redman is a nobody and that will become clear quickly

Evander Hood is terrible, i completely expect Cam Heyward to out class him on the field

Jason Worilds is so bad and cant stay healthy, the former second rounder may find himself on the roster bubble. He over pursues, is soft, and even though he generates pressure he never closes. Chris Carter and Adrian Robinson are outplaying him

Not sure how troy polomalu can be considered a bust, hes always been a little overrated and has never been able to tackle but hes been one of the best playmakers in the league and certainly on the steelers the last like 8 years. I think he actually has a decent year since they are looking much younger up front and much more serviceable at DB with younger guys stepping up, how he can be a bust is baffling, the dude is borderline hall of famer on the field and sure fire hall of famer because of his hair


As much as i always loathed bradford i do think he makes inprovements under fisher, he is going to have a duo of decent backs, a potentially great defense, a good receiving TE in kendricks, and some young guys at WR that should be impactful. I think hes painfully average, but i think he can get th=e job done if they improve as much as i think they will.

i agree with pretty much all the rest, cassel is what he is....he could throw a lot of TDs this year to bowe/baldwin/moeaki/charles/hillis but what you see is what you get, i dont think he can really bust, im not too sure he ever had real expectations lol

jrdrylie 08-23-2012 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by K Train (Post 3096321)
Not sure how troy polomalu can be considered a bust, hes always been a little overrated and has never been able to tackle but hes been one of the best playmakers in the league and certainly on the steelers the last like 8 years. I think he actually has a decent year since they are looking much younger up front and much more serviceable at DB with younger guys stepping up, how he can be a bust is baffling, the dude is borderline hall of famer on the field and sure fire hall of famer because of his hair



I'm not calling Polamalu a draft bust. I'm saying this season for him will be a bust.

K Train 08-23-2012 01:21 PM

oh gotcha, well hes old and tiny and injury prone because hes so small he must torpedo himself around, hes lasted much longer than many players his size would so his expectations arent that high anymore

BeerBaron 08-23-2012 01:23 PM

That, and, in just about any other system, I think he wouldn't have become the same player.

His actual safety skills aren't that great...he ends up covering dirt more often than not when he drops back.

But, that system allows him to roam around and go where he thinks he can make the most impact on a given play. The front gets pressure and forces the opposing QB to hurry passes out and Polamalu has made a career out of jumping those.

tjsunstein 08-23-2012 01:25 PM

Victor Cruz, I feel like he had the luckiest year I've ever seen last year. He's talented, sure, but I expect a production drop off.

BeerBaron 08-23-2012 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjsunstein (Post 3096366)
Victor Cruz, I feel like he had the luckiest year I've ever seen last year. He's talented, sure, but I expect a production drop off.

That's a good one I hadn't thought about. Depending on the health of Nicks, I think he might still be a focal point of the offense early on, but I too expect a drop in his production since he'll no longer take anyone by surprise.

K Train 08-23-2012 01:30 PM

his instincts are incredible, just has a nose for the ball. Hes never been good in coverage in the traditional use of the word...like hes not a guy i would expect to be a good coach because hes sloppy but instinctual and roams SO much but i think he would have been successful elsewhere too. The steelers played to his strengths all these years, im sure others would too. hes insanely athletic and while hes at his best around the line of scrimmage its not like hes roy williams in coverage. Typically i wouldnt want him to man up on someone, but hes never been that kind of player hes a rare exception of a tiny linebacker that can play safety in the NFL in todays game


how he never wraps up a tackle is insanely frustrating sometimes

K Train 08-23-2012 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjsunstein (Post 3096366)
Victor Cruz, I feel like he had the luckiest year I've ever seen last year. He's talented, sure, but I expect a production drop off.

great one, know giants fans balk at being called lucky in any regard but sometimes i couldnt believe what cruz pulled off it was so lucky

killxswitch 08-23-2012 01:33 PM

Assuming there are any expectations for Christian Ponder, I think he will fail to meet them.

jrdrylie 08-23-2012 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch (Post 3096380)
Assuming there are any expectations for Christian Ponder, I think he will fail to meet them.

He doesn't really fit rule 2.

Splat 08-23-2012 01:49 PM

I don't think anyone not named nepg has any high exceptions for Cassel. I'm expecting him to do what he always does, look good against bad teams and struggle vs good teams.

K Train 08-23-2012 01:51 PM

i think demaryius thomas could bust, everyone is expecting him to put up huge numbers with him being "the best athlete mannings ever had to throw to" but hes a atrocious route runner, manning hasnt played football in a year and has undoubtedly lost some arm strength and possibly arm stamina, and historically peyton has loved guys that run very disciplined routes which sounds more like decker, stokely, tamme, caldwell, and dreessen (possibly virgil green? i havent heard much about him but peyton has always loved TEs)

thomas was pretty good last year but the teboffense wasnt far from what they ran at GT

killxswitch 08-23-2012 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrdrylie (Post 3096398)
He doesn't really fit rule 2.

Good point. Submission withdrawn.

vidae 08-23-2012 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Splat (Post 3096402)
I don't think anyone not named nepg has any high exceptions for Cassel. I'm expecting him to do what he always does, look good against bad teams and struggle vs good teams.

Pretty much spot on with this. That is who Cassel is and only the homeriest of homers disagrees. Most of us cringe when he drops back to pass.

And honestly, with rule #2 (they had to be good last year) Cassel doesn't even qualify for these lists. Neither does Stanford Routt because he was awful in Oakland.

Giantsfan1080 08-23-2012 02:35 PM

Cruz probably won't break as many long TD's as last year but I expect similar numbers. He won't bust.

Ron 08-23-2012 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giantsfan1080 (Post 3096455)
Cruz probably won't break as many long TD's as last year but I expect similar numbers. He won't bust.

He wont be able to put up similar numbers without as many long TDs. He won't be a bust but it would be homerific to not expect some sort of regression.

NY+Giants=NYG 08-23-2012 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjsunstein (Post 3096366)
Victor Cruz, I feel like he had the luckiest year I've ever seen last year. He's talented, sure, but I expect a production drop off.

Production in what area? I expect less TDs, but around the same ball park of yards. In fact, I think barring injury, he can bypass Nicks again in yards.

Also, he has another year in the system, and more confidence now. I think he will do just fine.

scottyboy 08-23-2012 02:41 PM

i fully expect some regression, but not that many. Ibelieved last year was a fluke with Cruz, but he's shown 0 signs of regression during pre-season or camp. I know that's meaningless, but he could actually be the real deal.

It's a shame, because it makes people think that he's better than Nicks

Giantsfan1080 08-23-2012 02:44 PM

The first half against the 49'ers in the playoffs told me all I need to know about Cruz. Poor Carlos Rogers was complaining he couldn't keep up with him.

K Train 08-23-2012 02:45 PM

hes nicks antonio brown, antonio brown is a fine player...great underneath guy, great chemistry with the QB, and a great improviser, but antonio brown is not mike wallace just like victor cruz is not hakeem the dream

vidae 08-23-2012 02:45 PM

You would be hard pressed to find a better WR coach in the NFL than Tom Coughlin. I don't think Cruz will live up to 1500 yards again, but he will be every bit as effective.

AntoinCD 08-23-2012 02:50 PM

I think Cruz's numbers will go down based off the fact that I believe the Giants will be more successful running the ball this year. Add in that teams will specifically target him in the passing game more. I don't think they will go down enough though to say he disappointed based off last year.

I think Arian Foster may have a relatively disappointing year by his recent standards. Sure the Texans run it well, but they lost the right side of their offensive line, a healthy Schaub and AJ will mean they will throw more and Ben Tate is a guy who is more than capable to give Foster a breather.

I think Foster led the league in RB touches last year, however I think that will go down with an eye on the playoffs to keep him fresh.


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