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-   -   How much is Wes Welker worth? (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=53884)

Matthew Jones 09-20-2012 06:23 PM

How much is Wes Welker worth?
 
Current speculation in New England has revolved around the possibility that Wes Welker will be moved in advance of the NFL's October 30th trade deadline. Which teams may be interested, what kind of draft pick could New England acquire for Welker, and how much will his new contract extension be worth?

Ness 09-20-2012 06:26 PM

I don't know. I always thought he was a product of good quarterback play and a system that suited his strengths. Any team that wants him probably shouldn't be expecting the numbers/production he has put up the last few years...unless they have a system that utilizes his talents like New England did. Having a stud quarterback helps too. If I really needed help at wideout...I'd say he's worth a 5th round pick.

PACKmanN 09-20-2012 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones (Post 3122495)
Current speculation in New England has revolved around the possibility that Wes Welker will be moved in advance of the NFL's October 30th trade deadline. What kind of draft pick could New England acquire for Welker, and how much will his new contract extension be worth?

I dont think they move him unless the offer is too good to refuse, ex. 1st-2nd round pick. They have more to lose to move him for practical nothing now than keeping him and then getting a pick because a team signs him in the offseason. You get his production for a season plus a draft pick.

tjsunstein 09-20-2012 06:31 PM

Just as the case with Greg Jennings, he's worth more to his current team than he would be to a team looking for a WR. Obviously, Jennings is worth more than Welker but neither the Pack or Pats are lookin to unload either player when they're trying to win now. You play the season out, you give your best offer in th offseason if you're seriously looking to keep them or let them walk and get a compensation pick, which could possily be higher than any team is willing to offer considering their desires for new contracts.

D-Unit 09-20-2012 06:31 PM

WRs are only as good as the amount of targets thier QBs give them.

I can't imagine a lot being given up for Welker who found a nitche in NE. A 5th rounder sounds fair.

Babylon 09-20-2012 06:37 PM

Seattle had a little success bringing Brandon Stokely in a couple of years ago. I could see Wes ending up here. That is probably far enough away from Mrs. Brady to make all sides happy.

Matthew Jones 09-20-2012 06:43 PM

I find it highly unlikely that New England would trade Welker for a fifth-round pick. Compensatory picks are largely determined by average annual value, and last season players who earned fourth-round compensatory selections averaged $5-6 million per season in annual value, while fifth-rounders were in the $4 million range. The main motivation behind trading Welker would be an inability to sign him to a contract extension, but it seems probable that the Patriots would have been able to agree on a new contract if he were demanding $6 million per season or less. More likely is that Welker was asking for more than $20 million over two years, or the amount that it would cost New England to apply the franchise tag this year and next. The Patriots should realistically expect a third or fourth-round pick as compensation for letting Welker walk after the season, assuming his new deal averages over $5 million per season. Why trade him now if they aren't getting anything out of it?

Ness 09-20-2012 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Babylon (Post 3122507)
Seattle had a little success bringing Brandon Stokely in a couple of years ago. I could see Wes ending up here. That is probably far enough away from Mrs. Brady to make all sides happy.

I still can't believe Stokley is still playing. His career reminds me of Rickey Prohel.

abaddon41_80 09-20-2012 06:46 PM

Welker was actually pretty good his last year in Miami, considering his QB situation the the fact that he didn't play all that much. Plus he had a great year when Brady got injured. I would think a 4th would be fair, maybe a late 3rd

Babylon 09-20-2012 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ness (Post 3122514)
I still can't believe Stokley is still playing. His career reminds me of Rickey Prohel.

Not sure if there is a theme there but some of them do stick around. Probably like coaches, if you don't piss people off you tend to resurface.

Da-Phins 09-20-2012 07:16 PM

I wouldnt offer anymore then a 4th for him.

K Train 09-20-2012 07:18 PM

i remember welker as a rookie in the opener thursday night against the steelers, he was such a sick return man

he'll be good anywhere, not sure he'll put up the numbers were used to but the thing that makes him so good is hes fearless catching the ball, and obviously pretty shifty with it in his hands

id think they could probably get a 2nd for him, which is what they traded for him i think...thats a hell of a return on investment

Eazy Picks 09-21-2012 12:34 AM

I dont think theres a big trade market for Welker, but I also cant imagine why the Pats would want to trade him. Could they possibly like Edelman that much?

I dunno, the moves the Pats are making at receiver are kinda confusing to me. Brady threw for 5000 yards last year working it to Welker, Gronk, Hernandez and Branch. Why mess with that? They cut branch now resigned him. They have like 10 TEs on their roster and just signed Winslow, who couldnt find any other takers (hard to figure out what happened with Winslow, I thought my Raiders would pick him up for sure), instead of just moving Fells or Shiancoe into Hernandez' spot until he comes back.

Either way, the Pats are a SB contending team, and Welker has been their top receiver for years, so I just dont see why they wouldnt keep him as a focal point of the offense, even if they dont plan on resigning him. They may realize his price tag isnt expensive as they think, I doubt he would get a monster deal on the open market. I think teams have learned from David Givens, Deion Branch, etc not to sign ex-patriot receivers to huge deals.

Giantsfan1080 09-21-2012 07:59 AM

Shiancoe is on the IR designated list right now.

mqtirishfan 09-21-2012 10:24 AM

About three fiddy.

Jvig43 09-21-2012 10:57 AM

As a Pats fan I wouldnt trade him for anything less than a second, maybe high third...MAYBE. Which considering how high that is for a 32ish year old player looking for a new contract it really isnt likely a team is willing to pay that, and if I was a fan of another team I wouldnt want to pay that either. Basically I would love to trade Welker if we got that high of value but being as that isn't realistic I'm going to say we keep him and let him walk after this season.

K Train 09-21-2012 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eazy Picks (Post 3123050)
I dont think theres a big trade market for Welker, but I also cant imagine why the Pats would want to trade him. Could they possibly like Edelman that much?

I dunno, the moves the Pats are making at receiver are kinda confusing to me. Brady threw for 5000 yards last year working it to Welker, Gronk, Hernandez and Branch. Why mess with that? They cut branch now resigned him. They have like 10 TEs on their roster and just signed Winslow, who couldnt find any other takers (hard to figure out what happened with Winslow, I thought my Raiders would pick him up for sure), instead of just moving Fells or Shiancoe into Hernandez' spot until he comes back.

Either way, the Pats are a SB contending team, and Welker has been their top receiver for years, so I just dont see why they wouldnt keep him as a focal point of the offense, even if they dont plan on resigning him. They may realize his price tag isnt expensive as they think, I doubt he would get a monster deal on the open market. I think teams have learned from David Givens, Deion Branch, etc not to sign ex-patriot receivers to huge deals.

has he though? welker was at his best when moss was the top guy, then he found himself at his best again when gronk was the top guy last year

Jvig43 09-21-2012 10:59 AM

Welker was certainly our top guy last year, at least for the first half of the season and he really played well. Also, if youre hoping to trade for him just know not to depend on him to make that difficult catch when it matters or on important third downs. Yes I am still bitter and both passes hes dropped this year have killed drives on third down. Dick haha

Matthew Jones 09-21-2012 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by K Train (Post 3123219)
has he though? welker was at his best when moss was the top guy, then he found himself at his best again when gronk was the top guy last year

Isn't it possible for a team to have two #1 receivers, though? Even if not, wouldn't it be fair to argue that the player a team throws the ball to most often is their #1 receiver? In that case, it's Welker. He shouldn't be excluded from being labeled a top receiver just because there have been bigger, faster, or stronger players on the team.

descendency 09-25-2012 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by K Train (Post 3123219)
has he though? welker was at his best when moss was the top guy, then he found himself at his best again when gronk was the top guy last year

He was really good in 2010 when Moss played like **** and Gronk was still being worked into the offense.

descendency 09-25-2012 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eazy Picks (Post 3123050)
I dont think theres a big trade market for Welker, but I also cant imagine why the Pats would want to trade him. Could they possibly like Edelman that much?

The Patriots don't care about who your backup is. If a team offers something for him that they view as more than his value to the team, they will make the trade. They totally ****** themselves in 2008 when they traded Seymour (granted, losing Brady was worse, but that happened in game 1).

Prowler 09-25-2012 06:19 PM

I'd trade up to a 2nd round pick for him. His value is probably more along the lines of a 3rd-5th round pick. If I were Miami, I'd be calling the Patriots about him.

As far as salary...he's a slot receiver...I could run his routes. I wouldn't pay him anything more than $5 million/year. He can be replaced by any 5'10'' white guy in America.

Matthew Jones 09-25-2012 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prowler (Post 3129864)
I'd trade up to a 2nd round pick for him. His value is probably more along the lines of a 3rd-5th round pick. If I were Miami, I'd be calling the Patriots about him.

As far as salary...he's a slot receiver...I could run his routes. I wouldn't pay him anything more than $5 million/year. He can be replaced by any 5'10'' white guy in America.

I'd actually say that Welker runs more routes than pretty much anyone in the league, aside from maybe Larry Fitzgerald. Welker's got one of the most creative route trees ever. The Patriots wouldn't have traded a second round pick for him and paid $27 million over the course of his career if they thought they could replace him with any 5'10" white guy.

Prowler 09-25-2012 07:16 PM

As a 5'10" half white guy, I can state pretty confidently that anybody in football shape and half a brain could replace him. He's not Calvin Johnson. He's a maxed out savvy guy who gets things done. He can read, which is more than a lot of players can do(Chad Johnson still can't read a playbook) and Welker always knows what position that he needs to be in. That is my minimum expectation for any football player...therefore, in my mind, he can be replaced by anybody.

A Perfect Score 09-25-2012 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prowler (Post 3129864)
I'd trade up to a 2nd round pick for him. His value is probably more along the lines of a 3rd-5th round pick. If I were Miami, I'd be calling the Patriots about him.

As far as salary...he's a slot receiver...I could run his routes. I wouldn't pay him anything more than $5 million/year. He can be replaced by any 5'10'' white guy in America.

Imagine the Pats got their second round pick back from the Phins for Welker after like 6 years of usage. I'd bow down to BB forever.


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