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bearsfan_51 10-07-2012 12:34 PM

BCS Prediction Thread
 
Unlike pretty much everyone else on earth, I'm a fan of the BCS and enjoy making projections. Feel free to make your own or comment on what I've got.




Alabama (13-0) vs. Notre Dame (12-0)

-I'm always uncomfortable predicting two undefeated teams, but these look like reasonable bets considering the remaining games, especially Alabama.

Important games (Alabama): @LSU, SEC Championship Game
Important games (Notre Dame): Stanford, BYU, @Oklahoma, @USC




Nebraska (10-3) vs. Oregon (12-1)

-The Big Ten really wishes they could have Ohio State. You could pick a team out of Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, or Wisconsin. Nebraska has Michigan at home, and I think has the best team overall, so they get the nod.

-With all of the tough games Oregon has left, including the Pac-12 championship game, I just don't see them going undefeated. They'll slip up once, putting them here.





West Virginia (11-1) vs. Boise State (11-1)
-Same story with West Virginia as I had for Oregon. I think they beat K-State but lose to Oklahoma, winning the Big 12 and putting them here.

-Boise State isn't the same great team this year, but they should still run the table. I think with the Big Ten clearly not getting two bids this year, that opens up a spot for Boise State (I also think the Pac-12 beats itself up and loses key games to Notre Dame)





Florida (11-2) vs. Kansas State (11-1)

-Florida, South Carolina, or LSU all will have a shot for that second spot. I've been riding Florida all year, and I'll keep it up for now.

-Kansas State loses to West Virginia, and thus loses the Big-12, but runs the table otherwise. This would be a good game.





Florida State (11-2) vs. Cincinnati (11-1)

-The ACC sucks so bad this year, but Florida State is still clearly the best in the bunch. I think they lose to Florida but otherwise run the table, having already blown their annual game. I don't doubt that they could also lose to Boston College next week, however.

-The Big East actually has three pretty decent teams in Cincy, Rutgers, and Louisville. I like Munchie and the Bearcats the most, however.

Giantsfan1080 10-07-2012 12:37 PM

Booooo BF. Just booooo.

bearsfan_51 10-07-2012 12:38 PM

You can't stop the Munchie.


JRTPlaya21 10-07-2012 12:39 PM

If ND makes it I will be laughing for weeks & can we please not have Boise in a BCS game ever again.

Giantsfan1080 10-07-2012 12:40 PM

Our D will take care of Munchie.

sbh15 10-07-2012 06:55 PM

not disagreeing with you, but what two teams do you think Florida loses to? if you have them in the Sugar Bowl, I'm assuming Alabama in the SECG is one of the two. as for the other loss, I can't see SCar, UGA, or FSU beating this UF team after this past weekend. then again, we aren't sure just how overrated LSU is/was...

bearsfan_51 10-07-2012 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbh15 (Post 3143136)
not disagreeing with you, but what two teams do you think Florida loses to? if you have them in the Sugar Bowl, I'm assuming Alabama in the SECG is one of the two. as for the other loss, I can't see SCar, UGA, or FSU beating this UF team after this past weekend. then again, we aren't sure just how overrated LSU is/was...

Alabama is one. Between the three games you mentioned, I think they lose one more. I just have a hard time seeing Florida or SCAR running the table over the next 6-7 games, and I don't think anyone beats Bama. Sadly.

sbh15 10-07-2012 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearsfan_51 (Post 3143310)
Alabama is one. Between the three games you mentioned, I think they lose one more. I just have a hard time seeing Florida or SCAR running the table over the next 6-7 games, and I don't think anyone beats Bama. Sadly.

I'm interested to see how Miss St. does against them (though I doubt it will even be close). they've looked good so far, albiet against absolute trash competition, but from we've already seen LSU and Texas A&M don't pose much of a threat

Cigaro 10-07-2012 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbh15 (Post 3143136)
not disagreeing with you, but what two teams do you think Florida loses to? if you have them in the Sugar Bowl, I'm assuming Alabama in the SECG is one of the two. as for the other loss, I can't see SCar, UGA, or FSU beating this UF team after this past weekend. then again, we aren't sure just how overrated LSU is/was...

Florida could certainly beat us, but I think you're going a bit too far in saying you can't even imagine us beating you, because it most certainly could happen. Just as you beat #3 ranked LSU, we absolutely smashed #5 ranked Georgia. The truth is we beat very talented but overrated teams. Its a bit much to say that judging by either performance this weekend that one is a clear class above the other. We're the top two teams in the SEC East, and we won't know who is actually better until two weekends from now.

dabears10 10-07-2012 09:26 PM

I don't see Notre Dame going undefeated. I think they have beaten flawed teams and haven't really played anyone that deserves to be in the top 10.

The defense is for real, but the offense has only shown proficiency against bad defenses.

bearsfan_51 10-07-2012 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dabears10 (Post 3143385)
I don't see Notre Dame going undefeated. I think they have beaten flawed teams and haven't really played anyone that deserves to be in the top 10.

They aren't going to play anyone that belongs in the top 10 either.

dabears10 10-07-2012 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearsfan_51 (Post 3143415)
They aren't going to play anyone that belongs in the top 10 either.

I'll rephrase, I think Stanford, USC, and Oklahoma are better teams than they have played so far. I don't think those teams are great either, but if ND does get to the National Championship they will be destroyed in the game.

sbh15 10-07-2012 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cigaro (Post 3143335)
Florida could certainly beat us, but I think you're going a bit too far in saying you can't even imagine us beating you, because it most certainly could happen. Just as you beat #3 ranked LSU, we absolutely smashed #5 ranked Georgia. The truth is we beat very talented but overrated teams. Its a bit much to say that judging by either performance this weekend that one is a clear class above the other. We're the top two teams in the SEC East, and we won't know who is actually better until two weekends from now.

yeah but I was confident that UGA was severely overrated coming into this season and their lackluster game against the Vols confirmed that for me. as dominant as South Carolina was, they beat a Georgia team that isn't all that impressive.

you could easily say the same for Florida's win over LSU, but the Gators killed a team with a dominant defensive line at the line of scrimmage. if USC does the same, I'll probably see things differently

TheBoyWonder22 10-08-2012 03:33 AM

National Championship: Alabama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia vs. Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina vs. Kansas State
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville

draftguru151 10-08-2012 08:16 AM

Sounds good for the most part, and some of the match ups sound really good, but I can't see Notre Dame going undefeated. A team with a consistent passing offense is going to roast them. Their run game is great but Golson and Rees aren't good enough passers and both would probably turn it over a few times in a shoot out. Can't see them winning at USC. I'd probably put Oregon in the NC and have SCar in over UF (and maybe Rutgers over Cincy but that's a toss up for me). BCS games look like they could be pretty decent besides whatever game the Big10 winner is playing in.

Docta 10-08-2012 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBoyWonder22 (Post 3143630)
National Championship: Alabama vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia vs. Florida
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville

The only way the SEC gets 3 bids is if they get 2 in the NC, which is not going to happen this year.

The 2nd team out of the Pac 12 is pretty much a lock to get one. If Louisiana Tech or Ohio can stay undefeated, they might steal the last spot.

Shane P. Hallam 10-08-2012 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Docta (Post 3143787)
The only way the SEC gets 3 bids is if they get 2 in the NC, which is not going to happen this year.

Unless the rules changed from last year, there is no way for a conference to have 3 BCS bids.

bearsfan_51 10-08-2012 11:48 AM

Shane is correct.

Docta 10-08-2012 11:58 AM

I think the SEC had a shot last year. If Georgia had won the conference championship, then they would have gotten an automatic bid. It's possible, but extremely difficult.

Shane P. Hallam 10-08-2012 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Docta (Post 3143804)
I think the SEC had a shot last year. If Georgia had won the conference championship, then they would have gotten an automatic bid. It's possible, but extremely difficult.

Nope, it isn't. Had Georgia won the conference, Alabama or LSU would not have been allowed to have a bid.

TheBoyWonder22 10-08-2012 03:15 PM

Alright I shuffled K-State, Notre Dame, and Florida around.

sbh15 10-08-2012 11:51 PM

if there's one game that I would be very interested in watching, it would be Oregon/West Virginia ... could out-do the WVU/Baylor game as far as scoring

bearsfan_51 10-09-2012 08:33 AM

I'd prefer to see a style in contrasts. I liked the Wisconsin-Oregon game last year for that reason.

jrdrylie 10-09-2012 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam (Post 3143807)
Nope, it isn't. Had Georgia won the conference, Alabama or LSU would not have been allowed to have a bid.

I don't think that is true. I remember them talking about it on Sports Radio down here in Alabama. They were talking about the rules and said that the rules state that only two teams from each conference can make the BSC. However, it also says that the two teams ranked 1-2 in the final rankings go to the Championship. So if 1-2 are in the same conference but neither is the conference champion (which would be highly unlikely), three teams can make it.

sbh15 10-09-2012 03:05 PM

Quote:

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.
http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bcs_explained.html

basically, what jrd said


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