Shane's Pre-Senior Bowl Mock Draft (3rd Round added 1/19)
I only ask for the following:
1. If you don't like a pick, that you have an explanation. Don't hate on the pick because you don't like the player. But if he doesn't fit or the position isn't as big a need, that is good information for me to learn and adjust
2. If I missed a glaring player in the mock, that would be good to know as well.
1) Kansas City Chiefs – Geno Smith QB/West Virginia
GM says they go best player available, is that Geno Smith? Nope, but one look at this roster shows Qb is a huge need and Andy Reid will salivate over Geno.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars – Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State
Might be the best all around DE in the draft. Solid pass rusher with upside against the run. Jaguars could opt for a QB later.
3) Oakland Raiders – Star Lotulelei DT/Utah
Just love this fit if Seymour and/or Kelly goes. Adds pass rush and some run defense to improve an ailing Raiders defense.
4) Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Joeckel OT/Texas A&M
Could have the best career of anyone in this draft. If the new staff sticks with Foles, we could see some offensive line changes, cuts, etc. Joeckel makes sense.
5) Detroit Lions – Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M
I’m not as high on Moore, but he fits the Lions. I imagine Cliff Avril and KVB are out of the picture leaving some glaring holes on the defensive line.
6) Cleveland Browns – Dee Milliner CB/Alabama
Don’t like Milliner as a Top 10 pick, but the Browns are tough. Can see Chud pushing for defense and with Sheldon Brown becoming a free agent, a #2 corner next to Haden could be high priority.
7) Arizona Cardinals – Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan
I think Fisher can make this jump into the Top Ten. Once again, a lot depends on the new coach, staff, etc, but anyone can see how bad the Cardinals offensive line is. Though Massie improved, Levi Brown isn’t an answer.
8) Buffalo Bills – Mike Glennon QB/NC State
Feel like Buffalo goes with a QB and I flip-flopped between Barkley and Glennon. Ultimately, Glennon could have a Blaine Gabbert esque rise and the Bills will feign letting him develop while sticking him in near midseason. Glennon fits Marrone though, so it may work.
9) New York Jets – Jarvis Jones LB/Georgia
Wonder if he does fall that far due to the spinal stenosis. Ultimately, I can see Rex pushing the new GM to build the pass rush and try to go with instant impact players to keep his job. Jarvis Jones fits that despite the risk.
10) Tennessee Titans – Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri
Great all around player and gives the Titans some options with Marks becoming a free agent. Could start in a rotation and hopefully improve the Titans defense as a whole.
11) San Diego Chargers – Alec Ogletree LB/Georgia
Maybe a bit of a surprise pick, but Takeo Spikes is aging, Jonas Mouton is awful and Demorrio Williams is a free agent. Ogletree provides the athletic and coverage upside to free up Donald Butler. If the Chargers change their scheme, even more reason for a LB and Ogletree can play inside or out.
12) Miami Dolphins – Dion Jordan DE/Oregon
Don’t see Jordan as a Top Ten player, but the Dolphins need to find that pass rush opposite of Cam Wake. Jordan’s versatility could endear him to the current staff and hopefully improve the run defense. Having a ton of picks in tis draft allows them to go defense in the first.
13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Johnthan Banks CB/Mississippi State
Too high for Banks, but Tampa Bay is one of those teams with one glaring hole that is holding them back defensively. After the combine, Banks should be able to raise his stock and rehabilitate it after a mediocre 2nd half of the year.
14) Carolina Panthers – Johnathan Hankins DT/Ohio State
It is the usual pick, but it is one of those necessary picks. Versatile, athletic big man who can man the Panthers defense and eat up blocks for Luke Kuechly.
15) New Orleans Saints – Ezekial Ansah DE/BYU
Adds some pass rush and upside for the Saints, especially if Will Smith is cut before next season. Ansah has some rare upside that should push him into the Top 15.
16) St. Louis Rams – Chance Warmack OG/Alabama
Seems like a great fit for Fisher and the Rams, especially if they move to their young RB tandem. Going to be a make or break year for Bradford and any O-line will help.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers – Manti Te’o LB/Notre Dame
Not the Top 5 prospect some thought, but still in the Top 20. Fits the Steelers, their draft philosophy, and needs.
18) Dallas Cowboys – Barkevious Mingo DE/LSU
Moving to the 4-3 without Anthony Spencer leaves a pass rushing hole opposite of DeMarcus Ware (Marcus Spears won’t cut it). Mingo has some Ware type upside.
19) New York Giants – Kevin Minter LB/LSU
Chase Blackburn is set to be a FA and the question is how much the Giants trust Mark Herzlich to take over as a 3 down player. Not sure he is there yet, so Kevin Minter could be a nice fit as a 2 or 3 down player.
20) Chicago Bears – Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame
Offensive Line may be harder to come by than people think, and TE is a glaring hole with the struggles Kellen Davis has had. Eifert adds a weapon for Jay Cutler that is massively needed.
21) Cincinnati Bengals – Arthur Brown LB/Kansas State
The Bengals are tough with no glaring holes that fit value, but with Maualuga and Lawson being free agents (along with Thomas Howard,) LB could get very thin very quickly. Brown can fit on the weakside and allow Burfict to move to the middle, strengthening both positions.
22) St. Louis Rams (f/ WAS) – DeAndre Hopkins WR/Clemson
Maybe a bit of a surprise for the first WR off the board, but Hopkins could blaze at the combine and his size as well as production should convince a team to take him early. Despite investing in Givens and Brian Quick, offensive weapons are a big issue. Amendola’s injury history could convince the Rams to take a WR relatively high once again.
23) Minnesota Vikings – Cordarrelle Patterson WR/Tennessee
Patterson is another player who is likely to rise rise rise before the NFL Draft. Jarius Wright fits more in the slot and if Percy Harvin ends up moving on, a pure #1 WR would be worth it. Patterson fits that bill.
24) Indianapolis Colts – DJ Fluker OT/Alabama
Might be a safer pick for the Colts who need to keep Andrew Luck upright. Winston Justice is a free agent and Ben Ijalana hasn’t shown himself to be a starting RT. Fluker could fit in there and ultimately be a guard if needed.
25) Seattle Seahawks – Margus Hunt DE/SMU
Might be a bit of a surprise here, but Carroll’s comments about pass rush and the type of D-linemen they like in Seattle leads me to feel Margus Hunt is in play. Big, physical, can play inside or outside and should continue rising.
26) Green Bay Packers – Travis Frederick C/Wisconsin
I waivered on this Packers pick a bit. Do they go with more defensive help? Rodgers was a hit a ton and the center position could be a reason why. Jeff Saturday was awful while Dietrich-Smith is a Restricted Free Agent and very upgradeable. Frederick has a bit more upside at center than Barrett Jones and think he may fit for Ted Thompson better as well.
27) Houston Texans – Kyle Long OT/Oregon
Surprise first round pick, but Kyle Long’s draft stock is so variable. I believe he could blow up in the offseason and rise into the Top 50 or fall due to his rawness. Houston’s right side played decently against New England, it has been a big weakness. Long has RT, LT, or offensive guard potential.
28) Denver Broncos – Sylvester Williams DT/North Carolina
DT is an easy need for the Broncos, though I do think the secondary could use a massive upgrade. I think Williams would be more of a sure thing than Shariff Floyd, Kawann Short, John Jenkins, or Jesse Williams. No glaring holes in his game.
29) Baltimore Ravens – Kenny Vaccaro S/Texas
Don’t love the LB value for the Ravens here and Ed Reed is a free agent (along with two more of their safeties). With the tag going to Flacco, perhaps investing in the top safety in this class is wise. Vaccaro fits as a player who can play close to the line, and isn’t a major coverage liabaility.
30) San Francisco 49ers – Zach Ertz TE/Stanford
Delanie Walker will be moving to free agency and Vernon Davis has been a disappointment under Harbaugh. I’m not into the college coach picking his own players, but I can see the potential of a young Zach Ertz on this team paying major dividends.
31) Atlanta Falcons – Sam Montgomery DE/LSU
TE is the easy pick, but with Eifert/Ertz gone, pass rush will be a major priority. Abraham is aging and as much as I like Kroy Biermann, he isn’t an every down player. Montgomery gives the Falcons a base left end who also has some pass rush ability.
32) New England Patriots – David Amerson DB/NC State
Just fits the tweener mold the Patriots like. Patrick Chung is likely done in New England and Amerson could step into the safety role immediately.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jonathan Cooper OG/North Carolina
Losing Even Britton perhaps and Will Rackley has not developed. Went with value over QB.
2. Kansas City Chiefs – Keenan Allen WR/Cal
Will Bowe be back? Even if so, Chiefs need a potential stud WR with Baldwin still lacking the mental fortitude.
3. Philadelphia Eagles – Jordan Poyer Cb/Oregon State
If Asomugha is out, Poyer could come in and start.
4. Detroit Lions – Matt Elam S/Florida
Seems to fit Mayhew’s bill of physical players, Delmas there or not, safety is a good investment.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (f/OAK) – Eric Reid S/LSU
Versatile safety who could really fit the Bengals defense.
6. Arizona Cardinals – Matt Barkley QB/USC
Arians may want to try and work his magic with Barkley
7. Cleveland Browns – SUPPLEMENTAL DRAFT
Looks like I was wrong on Josh Gordon, slowly developing into a top player, better than any WR still on the board.
8. New York Jets – Barrett Jones OG/Alabama
Versatile lineman with high character. Can play RG or LG as needed.
9. Tennessee Titans – Desmond Trufant CB/Washington
Tough pick, but CB depth seems a need with Mouton’s impending Free Agency. Trufant a more physical corner than anyone the Titans have.
10. Buffalo Bills – Terrance Williams WR/Baylor
Get the QB, get him weapons. Williams should have a big offseason to raise his stock.
11. Miami Dolphins – Shariff Floyd DT/Florida
Floyd is a first round talent, but Miami could snatch him up if he falls to replace Randy Starks.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tyler Wilson QB/Arkansas
Surprise? Freeman has a year left, Schiano may want to go the Harbaugh route and start to develop his own guy.
13. Carolina Panthers – Will Davis CB/Utah State
On the rise, and despite the good pass defense numbers for Carolina, they’d be better served to have Josh Norman be the nickel CB.
14. New Orleans Saints – FORFEITED
Saints really could have used this pick.
15. San Diego Chargers – Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee
Meachem kind of a bust, can Brown or DX stay healthy? Lots of WR questions, Hunter could help answer them as McCoy and Whiz should realize the benefit of a top WR.
16. St. Louis Rams – Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma
Can fit on left or right side. Solid 2nd rounder.
17. Dallas Cowboys – Kawann Short DT/Purdue
Might make the shift to the 4-3 a bit easier. Pass rushing DT combined with Mingo would make this defensive line very scary.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers – TJ McDonald S/USC
Trojan to replace a Trojan?
19. New York Giants – Dallas Thomas OL/Tennessee
Versatility bumps him up. Another guy who may have an offseason rise.
20. Chicago Bears – Khaseem Greene LB/Rutgers
Could fit in the strongside, or maybe even MLB in a pinch.
21. Washington Redskins – Xavier Rhodes CB/Florida State
I like Rhodes a lot but don’t envision the next few months being kind to him.
22. Minnesota Vikings – Logan Ryan CB/Rutgers
Another potential rise. How long will Winfield last? If not much longer, Vikes will need some depth.
23. Cincinnati Bengals – Giovanni Bernard RB/North Carolina
Feels like the RB to fit for Cincy, but injuries worry me.
24. Miami Dolphins (f/ IND) – Stedman Bailey WR/West Virginia
Dolphins need some weapons going forward, and Stedman Bailey could be very enticing.
25. Green Bay Packers – Montee Ball RB/Wisconsin
Feel like if the Packers go RB, Ball is a potential target. Not for the hometown connection, but his fit to some of the RBs Thompson has brought in in the past.
26. Seattle Seahawks – Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia
Really creative weapon Pete Carroll could get working for his young QB.
27. Houston Texans – Jesse Williams DT/Alabama
Ideal fit for Wade’s defense.
28. Denver Broncos – Tony Jefferson S/Oklahoma
Might not be much of an upgrade over what they have, but good developmental safety talent.
29. Baltimore Ravens – Oday Aboushi OT/Virginia
Still need to build OT depth and McKinnie isn’t guaranteed to be back.
30. San Francisco 49ers – John Jenkins DT/Georgia
Wonder if he’ll be as highly thought of as some have him right now. Sopaoaga is a free agent.
31. Atlanta Falcons – Travis Kelce TE/Cincinnati
Gonzo replacement? Don’t think Gonzo retires and feel Kelce moves up fast.
32. New England Patriots – Robert Woods WR/USC
If no more Welker or Branch, Pats need to finally hit on drafting a WR.
1. Kansas City – Robert Alford CB/Southeastern Louisiana
Big time small school corner with upside, may even get starting reps in Year 1.
2. Jacksonville – Ryan Nassib QB/Syracuse
New GM sounds like they want to bring some QB in. Nassib would fit well.
3. Detroit – Tyrann Mathieu CB/LSU
If interviews go well, wonder how high he can go. Fits Lions defense.
4. Oakland – Alex Okafor DE/Texas
Could go much higher, but adds to a much needed pass rush.
5. Philadelphia – Baccari Rambo S/Georgia
Upside Safety to come in and compete for a rotational role early.
6. Cleveland – Corey Lemonier LB/Auburn
Perfect for their new defense, can stand up if he can learn more pass rush moves.
7. Arizona – B.W. Webb CB/William & Mary
A tad high, but Arizona has had success with small school corners
8. Tennessee - Larry Warford OG/Kentucky
Too low for Warford, Tennessee reaps the benefits. Can be an instant starter at LG or RG.
9. Buffalo – Justin Pugh OT/Syracuse
I generally think new coaches don’t take their old players early, but value and position fits for developmental depth.
10. New York Jets – Markus Wheaton WR/Oregon State
Hill not there yet, how much longer does Holmes have? Time to bring in another weapon.
11. Tampa Bay – Michael Buchanan DE/Illinois
Add to the pass rush to fix that ailing defense.
12. San Francisco (f/ CAR) – Phillip Thomas S/Fresno State
A playmaker in the secondary that SF doesn’t have right now.
13. New Orleans – Bennie Logan DT/LSU
Could be a first rounder by April, NO goes hometown to build the trenches.
14. San Diego – Eddie Lacy RB/Alabama
Similar to Mathews perhaps, but major insurance is needed and value is great.
15. Miami – Da’Rick Rogers WR/Tennessee Tech
Miami could come out of this draft with 3 WRs. Upside of Rogers is enticing.
16. St. Louis – Shawn Williams S/Georgia
Big position of need, Williams could go around this area.
17. Pittsburgh – Le’Veon Bell RB/Michigan State
Big, physical talent the Rooneys keep pushing for.
18. Dallas – Alvin Bailey OG/Arkansas
Had a down year, but Jerry won’t mind another Razorback
19. New York Giants – Gavin Escobar TE/San Diego State
Adrien Robinson may be the only TE left. Another weapon, more competition.
20. Miami (f/ CHI) – Jordan Reed TE/Florida
Keep adding weapons for Tannehill if you want him to succeed.
21. Minnesota – Akeem Spence DT/Illinois
Very talented player who fell, not a major need but a value pick for an aging Kevin Williams.
22. Cincinnati – Tyler Bray QB/Tennessee
Is Dalton all he is cracked up to be? Bray would give a high upside developmental back-up.
23. Washington – Denard Robinson WR/Michigan
Shanny was interested in some two-way RB/WR players last year.
24. Indianapolis – Brandon Williams DT/Missouri Southern State
Could fit the NT position for Indy.
25. Seattle – Datone Jones DE/UCLA
A name who is moving up boards and fits the Seahawks defense. D-line still seems to be a priority.
26. Green Bay – Terry Hawthorne CB/Illinois
Can allow them to play around with moving a CB to safety.
27. Houston – Chase Thomas LB/Stanford
Not a perfect fit, but tenacious LB who I could see playing inside for Houston.
28. Denver – Khaled Holmes C/USC
Could fall due to injuries and poor play. Allow for a competition/depth after Walton.
29. Baltimore – Quinton Patton WR/Louisiana Tech
Future pick to replace Boldin.
30. San Francisco – Ricky Wagner OL/Wisconsin
OT depth, with maybe even some potential at OG for depth.
31. New England – JC Tretter OG/Cornell
O-line depth is never a bad thing.
32. Atlanta – Joseph Randle RB/Oklahoma State
Maybe similar to Quizz, but a better all-around player.
1. Tank Carradine
2. Andre Ellington
3. Leon McFadden
4. Mallicah Goodman
5. Blidi Wreh-Wilson
6. Cobi Hamilton
7. Kenny Stills
8. Aaron Dobson
9. Jawan Jamison
10. Zac Dysert
11. Dion Sims
12. Brandon Jenkins
13. William Gholston
14. Gerald Hodges
15. John Simon
I agree with the position and think we will most definitely cut Will Smith. My somewhat conservative nature makes me prefer Sam Montgomery, but if Ziggy Ansah plays up to the level of JPP as many feel he can, that would make a great pick.
Great KC pick obviously.
Doubt if any of Fluker, Kyle Long or Frederick go before Jon Cooper.
Would be an interesting pick for the Jets. I'd like to think the new GM will have the ability to make decisions he feels are in the best interest of the franchise long-term instead of trying to save Rex's job. Obviously talented, although there are on field concerns with him in addition to the health issues. Don't see another clear option on the board though.
Some quick thoughts then to the analysis of the Pats pick:
6: Browns - Milliner
Don't like this one. Fits BPA, but getting a second top ten pick CB on that roster seems like too much of a luxury, for a roster that seems to be lacking in other areas more. Figure CHUD will want to revamp the offense or stock the defense with players that fit the system they will be running rather than adding another CB.
Really like the Minter to NYG. However, I see the ILB falling a bit more than you have them projected as you have a bunch in the first, so they might have a better array of choices.
I could see the Rams flip flopping and picking Patterson instead. Everything I have heard from that camp is they need a true number one.
For the pats, I am not a huge fan of Amerson. I think we need a number two corner, or a number one if Talib walks. But everything I have heard about Amerson is that he is everything we found out about McCourty. Moonlight as a corner, had temp success, but true fit was at safety. Plus we have the glass doll of Ras-I Dowling filling that role. Finally if he is a safety, we are pretty set without Chung. McCourty and Gregory are the left and right safety, with Wilson being the nickel safety.
Since he dropped off completely, I like the value of Keenan Allen. Also, there might be a situational pass rusher type. We have Jones anchoring one end. We have Nink who does everything well but a master of none. Through in a pass rush inclined end if we want to stress that.
If you project Reed to be gone then a safety would be a good pick for the Ravens in the first round. I'm not sure if Vaccaro is a good fit next to Pollard though. Of course none of the top rated guys at that position would seemingly be ideal fits either unless you project Amerson to FS.
For what it's worth I don't expect Flacco to get the franchise tag. With how close they will already be to the salary cap after tendering their RFAs and EFAs the Ravens would have to clear about $10 million of cap space just to make room for that. They should be really motivated to get a long-term deal done with him.
I know the Ravens are tough to pick for if their isn't value at LB but agree with coordinator about Vaccaro not being a good fit as a deep safety.
But overall, I actually like this mock quite a bit JBond.
Keenan Allen is still on the board? poke poke.
I don't think a TE is a first round need for sf unless it is its BPA then ok sure. But I think Davis will get better in our offense. But if its BPA good pick otherwise a CB / DT I think will be our pick.
Don't agree with Jonathon Banks to Tampa. I actually like Xavier Rhodes a lot better but give us Enzekial Ansuh. Best player available ad bucs were bottom 5 in sacks. Both secondary and pass rush needs to be addressed.
I would have no qualms with us picking Frederick.
Don't think I need to say how much I love the KC pick :)
A TE at 20 a huge reach. I don't see us passing on Cooper or Barrett
Much to discuss here but I'll stick mostly with the Browns. CB is obviously a need but, unless they spend big money in FA on a rusher, you generally build a defense inside out-and Milliner doesn't wow me either as a top ten pick. With a glaring hole at RE/ROLB, Jones, Jordan or even Ansah are better options.
And where is the love for #21? Russ Lande has Allen as his #5 overall prospect. Are you just not a fan or are you figuring his knee injury will be an issue?
Not sure I like the Amerson pick. Hopefully Talib gets resigned and Dennard has been playing really well. Depth and a potential starter could be added but unless it's good value I think it's a lesser need. Jonathan Cooper could be a big possiblity at this stage
I'm a bit iffy on the Ram's picks. They should look more to OT than OG as Richardson was not that good at RT this past season. I'll agree OG is a need, it's just down the line a bit. Also, as much as I want a stud WR this team needs to nab a safety ASAP and if Vacarro is there I can't say I would complain if the Rams grabbed him instead.
Veerry interesting Colts pick.
That said, is Fluker worthy of a first round pick? Can he handle NFL speed on the edge? I ask because to me RT isn't that much different from LT anymore. Pass rushers move around too much, a stud LT and a mediocre RT just means DCs will scheme to exploit your right side. That said, Phil Loadholt has been doing it for years and people didn't think he could, so maybe Fluker can too.
Does Fluker project to be a comparable or better guard than Cooper or Frederick? My impression is that he doesn't. And I feel better about re-signing Justice and drafting a guard right now. The Colts have to face JJ Watt twice a year for the foreseeable future, and guard is our weakest position by far. A majority of the hits on Luck appeared to come from interior rushers.
Other options that I think the Colts would consider, should the draft shake out this way, are:
- Travis Frederick, guard is a huge need and center might be if the front office just doesn't like AQ Shipley for some reason. Can't let Luck continue to get hit. I'd normally not put rush OLB and guard on the same level but Luck's protection factors in and pushes that position's value up for the Colts.
- Jonathan Cooper, if he has the right mindset and strength for an NFL OLman. I do prefer Frederick.
- Sam Montgomery, if they think he can play standing up. We have no starting OLB next year.
- Alex Okafor, same reasoning as Montgomery.
- Xavier Rhodes, if his speed is sufficient he and Vontae Davis would make a hell of a set of corners. And he could move to FS if CB wasn't working. With the year Antoine Bethea had, he may not be back after 2013.
I don't see Brown as a 1st Round pick. He is too small and has trouble shredding blocks plus you hardly ever see a explosive play out of him that screams he should go in the 1st round. LB is a need but I don't see Brown being a good pick there.
Montgomery could be a option since the Bengals do have 3 DE that are set to become FAs. Vaccaro could be a option even thought I am not a big fan of his since every SS the Bengals have is set to become a FA. #2 WR also could be a option since they still need to find one to play opposite Green.
Wow I really like it for St. Louis, Hopkins is really growing on me. And Warmack is a really easy/no-brainer pick for us, my fear is him not being there.
I like where you have Te'o going, I think that's more realistic, could never get on board with him being a top 5 selection. And Kyle Long in the first round, wow that's a surprise. if he jumps up into that range, I'd imagine the Rams would have some really high interest in him.
Who do you compare DeAndre Hopkins to? if anyone.
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