2013 Draft / Team Needs
Edited for newer info
OC (all the good FAs are RFAs that will be matched by their team)
CB (this is the last year under contract for Tillman and Jennings...#3, 4, and 5 corners are free agents right now)
MLB (Urlacher not under contract, a big liability against the run right now)
OLB (Lance Briggs entering his last two years under contract = holdout next offseason, Nick Roach not under contract right now...if Roach is re-signed and moved to MLB, where he is not good but servicable, will need a starting SLB)
Free Agency Needs
RT (deep FA pool, move Carimi to RG where has actually above average in limited time)
LG (deep FA pool, no LG under contract)
TE (deepest TE FA pool in history? Kellen Davis is literally the worst starting TE in the league)
WR (Moving to an offense that will use more WRs, dangerous to consider Alshon Jeffery a lock to be a legit #2, Earl Bennett always hurt, besically no one worth snaps on the roster after them, so if there's a single injury...Anyway, there are about 5-6 intriguing guys out there who are a tier or a half tier above Bennett who won't be breaking the bank)
The Bears have picks in rounds 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6 as far as I know. The third rounder went to Miami in the Marshall trade. The seventh rounder goes off to Tampa in the Brian Price trade. We should not have any compensatory picks. One peculiarity with us being the only 10-6 team to not make the playoffs is that we will have the 20th pick in each round; no rotating crap like there usually is. A trade down to acquire more picks should definitely not be ruled out with us only having 5 selections and our defense getting old & expensive. I could see us trading down from 20 overall into the early second round and picking up a third rounder.
Right now, my ideal mock would be:
1(20) trade to ARI for 2(38) and 3(69)
2(38) LB Arthur Brown
2(52) CB Will Davis
3(69) OC Khaled Holmes
4(??) LB Kiko Alonso
5(??) RB Kerwynn Williams
6(??) OL Terron Armstead
I tried to keep it realistic. I have Arizona taking a tackle with their first pick and trading back up to get a QB at #20.
Arthur Brown starts at SLB day one while we move Roach to MLB. Roach probably won't be the MLB of the future because he's a little below average there, but this allows flexibility in case of losing Briggs to age/money. Brown could always slide to WLB.
Will Davis would man the slot for us this year and move to the outside next year when at least one of our starting corners goes. We won't have the money for both.
I hope Khaled Holmes can start at C. Cutting Garza would free up a decent amount of money for the big number of guys who have to be signed right now.
Kiko Alonso is a boom or bust guy. Best case scenario is that he ends up being a starting SLB or MLB. Worst case is a good special teamer.
Kerwynn Williams is a speed back (4.34 speed) with good receiving skills. He comes in as our #3 RB right now. If he turns out to be good, we'll be able to get out from under Bush's starting RB contract next offseason.
Terron Armstead is one of this year's boom or bust OL. He's been trending upward lately, so he may be gone before this. Dunno.
I was weary of WR as a need, because I do love me some Earl Bennett, but he is injured always which causes some of the inconsistencies. I don't know how much I would want to invest in a WR that will be our 3/4th though. Looking through some of the FAs we may be able to get a bargain on players such as Steve Smith (USC), Kevin Ogletree (DAL), Hixon (as mentioned), Brandon Gibson (STL), or Ramses Barden (NYG). I think any one of those guys has some upside and could produce at a bargain to play the 3/4 with Bennett.
I agree with RB. As much as I loved Bush coming into the season, I think he is getting paid too much. I liked what I saw from Armando Allen in his limited time on the field, but we could probably draft a back as well.
Don't think we need to draft corner in upper rounds. They are getting older, but if we retain Hayden and Moore, we are 4 deep.
I would add QB to needs. I was excited for Campbell, but he was awful. We need an upgrade at backup, or at least someone we can hope will be good *coughdraftcough*. I'd like to see Trestman get his hands on a project QB from the draft so that he could develop him into a good backup to potential starter. This next year will be a make or break year for Jay, so if he doesn't make improvements, I'd like to at least have a contingency plan or someone in place if we don't retain him.
Also, Peppers needs to restructure. 16million this year? Be a team player brah. I don't think it would happen, but 5% of me can see him being cut as a cap casualty. Contingency planzzzzzz.
edit: Jared Cook for TE. Yes.
Oh, we definitely need a corner. We need one that can start in 2014. That means either we get an early one in this draft and break him in over time or we draft an early one in 2014 and count on him just starting day one.
DJ Moore is not going to be a CB on the outside. He's strictly in the slot. In the few snaps he's seen on the outside, he was overmatched. In the slot, he's a little bit above average. If Hayden becomes a starter, we're ******...and I mean really ******. He was among the worst in the league last season when he had to. He's been terrible for all of his career. In 2014, our cap situation is going to be tragic and Jennings will be a free agent. We're not going to be able to sign a FA or give him an extension. He's leaving after this year. It's kind of doubtful that we'll even be able to afford both Hayden and Moore this offseason. The old vets on our defense are a huge drain on the cap.
Again: our salary cap situation after this season is super bad. Doom. DOOM! We absolutely have to get some more defensive starters on rookie deals in place for next season.
I see the point about CB, but I too don't see it as that pressing a need this year. I think that's going to be the priority in '14 assuming we finally have an O-Line we can be satisfied with.
I'm much more concerned about TE. Whether in the upper reaches of the draft or in FA we need to address the position. Davis is solid but definitely a No.2 option. Perhaps the biggest tragedy of the Martz era was letting Olsen go. I thought it was a baffling decision at the time and it's only become more baffling as time has passed.
I think we can wait until the Friday rounds for a center. Not too many of them are picked in the first round and the position is not highly valued. Kahled Holmes could work if we want a more versatile line.
I don't know why, but I want to get EJ Manuel or another quarterback in the 3rd or mid-rounds. We all know Cutler gets hit way too much and has had injuries over the years. In case we don't end up bringing him back, or everything goes to absolute ****, we could use a development guy.
Tight end is a necessity. I don't know how to address this. On one hand, there are a lot of good free agents, but I would like a long-term solution. Offensive tackle will probably have to be addressed via free agency. With Matthews and Lewan returning to school, the Bears will not be in a position to get Fisher, but they can still use a first-rounder on a second-tier tackle. There will be a lot of different ways to do this, but let's hope they can get it done.
Getting a developmental QB in the mid rounds is a solid idea, but Manuel will be long gone.
Our "biggest needs" are OLine/TE (at least this year) no debate there. I like the idea of getting a good CB or WR to give us a little added depth/cushion. However, both OL & TE have ZERO depth & need to be improved dramatically right now.
So here is what I would want in an ideal world.
Round 1 - Barrett Jones - has experience all across the OL
Round 2 - TE either Ertz / Stoneburner
Round 1 - TE - T. Eifert - if no solid OL pick is left,
Round 2 - OL - take your pick - O.Aboushi, J. Pugh, DJ Fluker, Kyle Long
Scenario #3 - which goes against my original/practical line of thinking...
but I would be really excited !!!
Round 1 - Manti Teo - our middle LB of the future, #54 you're getting old
Round 2 - 1 of the same 4 I listed previously
I saw in our other thread the idea of trading down, which I'd be ok with.
If we could trade #20 for a 2nd and 3rd rounder and maybe something else, I'd be down. Pick up 2 quality guys and potentially a good 3rd rounder.
I think that would give us the best option going forward because of the depth in the second thru third rounds. Maybe go 2 OL, or TE/OL and a decent OL/MLB/CB in the third?
Would work for me!
I would agree with the previous post, I know San Fran no matter what happens this weekend is looking for some D-Line depth. Perhaps they would trade up?? For their 1st round & their 3rd round picks ?? Hmmmmm
I would be okay with that - perhaps grab a OL w/ 1st & 4th rounds and help fill the need of LB / TE with 2nd & 3rd ?? Whatcha ya'll think?
Still seeing drafting a tight end as an enormous waste of a pick. The free agent class of tight ends is pretty much the deepest ever and while this draft's TE class is pretty darned good, it doesn't have anyone you can point to and say "that guy is definitely going to be a top 10 TE."
Keep in mind...in the next two years, we're going to have some very big problems on the defense with the salary cap and age. We REALLY need to use some early picks on that starting yesterday. Should probably get two guys who can start on defense either this year or the next from this draft and another two or three in the 2014 draft
Julius Peppers: cap number over 16 mil for the rest of his contract
Charles Tillman: cap number of 8 mil this year, last year under contract
Lance Briggs: cap number over 6.5 mil for both years left on contract, only under contract for the next two years
Tim Jennings: cap number 4.75 mil this year, last year under contract
Major Wright: last year under contract
Israel Idonije: not under contract
Corey Wootton: last year under contract
Henry Melton: not under contract
DJ Moore: not under contract
Craig Steltz: last year under contract
Nick Roach: not under contract
Brian Urlacher: not under contract
-4 defensive starters not under contract right now
-primary DL rotation guy not under contract right now
-only one starting linebacker under contract right now
-none of our top five corners under contract after this season
-the starting strong safety and his backup not under contract after this season
-a starting defensive end not under contract after this season
-Lance Briggs will be holding out next offseason, because he'll only have one year left on his contract
-5 defensive starters age 30 or higher at start of season
The defense has a one-year window if we don't get a significant number of starters on rookie deals over the next two drafts.
The key to dealing with an aging defense is to NOT have them carrying the team anymore. A real offensive scheme and a couple quick fixes @ TE, WR and s couple OLinemen and u hopefully don't have to worry about the defense because u hsve an offense that can put up 25 points per game.
But on D they gotta re-sign Melton. He's a guy that u can build around. And with him, Paea, Wright (re-sign), Conte and hopefully McClellin...u have something to wotk with on that side of the ball. Replace Urlacher and Idonije this offseason and all of a sudden the team goes from 5 starters over 30 to just Peppers, Tillman and Briggs who are older....and all of them are still playing at an elite level.
My draft scenario:
Trade back with the falcons for 30 and 62
30: Barret Jones C: I have loved this pick since the beginning of the draft season. We need a young center with some fight in him to get this line on track again. Jones is my favorite center prospect in some time.
52: Khaseem Greene OLB: I am a meh guy on this pick, but we do have need of LBs with talent. He fits the bill.
60: Robert Woods WR: This guy can run routes REALLY well. We don't have anyone else on the roster who is great on the route tree. He would be a bit of a project but one that I feel could pay huge dividends.
4th rd: (I dont give number due to compensation picks): Terry Hawthorne CB: An Illini member who I think could be an excellent corner for us. He has a worrisome injury history which may allow him to fall to the fifth, but I think he is tremendously talented.
5th: Jelani Jenkins LB: In a perfect world a guy like Bostic would fall and make this a much more complete draft, but I doubt it will work out that way. So we take a project linebacker in Jenkins. For a fifth round pick, he has some pretty good tools.
6th: Chris Gragg TE: I saw this on another site and I liked it so I took it into consideration. He seems like a talented kid and he could backup Evan and whoever we sign for awhile.
I really wanted to fit Chris Faulk in here somewhere, but I think he goes in between our 2nd and 4th round picks. Well, blast away!
EDIT: Oh and for the record I would sign TE Jeff Cumberland because of the low price tag. Matt Slauson for LG. Gosder Cherilus for RT. And bring back Urlacher for a low cost.
Honestly, it is not as big of a need, but I would not mind to see us grab a talented guy at WR in the second. Woods would work.
If it was me, I would rather sign a receiver to come in and be the stretch the field type. Bringing in a small-school guy in the 6th or 7th wouldn't hurt either. Last year's draft brought in some nice supplemental/ complementary guys, but they are not core pieces to build around. We can get core pieces in this draft if done properly.
My second attempt at a mock for us:
Trade down with San Fran: For their 34th pick, their 3rd rounder and their 5th rounder.
34: Kevin Minter ILB: Replacement for Urlacher.
52: Khaseem Greene LB: Yes im keeping this pick. We need linebackers and he is rated around the fourth or fifth guy, he looks pretty good.
74:Barret Jones C: I keep seeing him falling in almost every mock I see. So we scoop him up in the third.
4th rd: Will Davis CB: We need some youth at corner.
5th rd: Brian Winters OG
5th rd: Quantarus Smith DE
6th rd: Aaron Dobson WR
Ugh, the draft boards just dont seem to fall well for us. I hope the real draft goes better.
My mock draft is on my blog.
I like the 1st 3 picks in your mock but picks 4 and 5 are going a lot higher than those rounds at least in my opinion. Davis looks like a 2nd rounder and Winters looks like a 3rd rounder to me.
I hope you guys don't mind me joining in; I am working my way around the league to other teams' boards so as to learn more about different teams, their fans, expectations, etc. Thus far I have found it to be paying dividends.
I tend to disagree with IAC. This may be the easiest year in a long time to trade down and out of the 1st round, depending on how the early part of the day goes. If QB's are not taken in the top 10 then I could easily see teams start trading back into the 1st round. I doubt that you will get a 3rd and a 5th for it, though, unless there is a real surprise player that falls. Maybe Smith or Barkley could fetch that, especially if your trading partner was, say, Buffalo, who is at the back end of the QB-needy teams. A more likely scenario would be if someone like Star or Jarvis were to fall to your neck of the woods due to their medical questions. Someone is going to decide that a player like that is worth the gamble at #20.
I do agree that this mock seems a bit out of whack. Brian Winters is a really good player. He might be in the conversation with Joeckel/Fisher/Johnson if he were not snubbed by the football gods who granted him 31" arms. I see him as a solid 3rd rounder, maybe even 2nd if Warmack, Cooper and Warford go in the 1st 40 picks as expected. Another very good guard, though, that may be around after the 3rd round is Hugh Thornton from Illinois. He is one of those guys that doesn't wow you with anything but does everything pretty well.
I also don't see Aaron Dobson being around in the 6th. He is a very good receiver with excellent speed. I think he probably goes after the main 2nd tier group of Hunter/Rogers/Bailey/Fuller, mainly due to his small school status and lack of elite competition, but I don't see him falling past the 3/4 range.
Just my two cents. I hope I haven't offended anyone by butting in on your team board.
I agree with the other posts, players are going to fall, somebody is going to want to jump another team to get their guy. There is going to be a market for that pick. I can handle trading with Buffalo or Arizona, Philadelphia could also be a wild card. Houston might want to jump St. Louis for a receiver, the Colts might want to jump the Bengals for a linebacker, the 49ers have plenty of ammo. I think the Bears can get a good deal on draft day.
I think Winters and Dobson can be capable starters in the right schemes. Winters can excel in a ZBS, while Dobson can be a reliable receiver. Good assessment on Thornton, he just gets the job done in both the running game and in pass protection. The Fighting Illini have sent decent interior linemen to the NFL.
As far as who will be around, when, we've also seen crazier things happen before in the draft, we've seen guys we've never heard of get picked in the 2nd round, we've seen guys most of us had as 2nd-3rd rounders go undrafted. That's what makes following the draft a lot of fun.
I am really liking how our offseason is going thus far. Aside from the Bushrod signing ($$$), I feel we have gotten a lot of bargains for some guys that could be solid role players. Dj Williams, James Anderson....not bad signings. LB is still a need as all of our LBs are now 30+, but still a 1st rounder?
Will allow us to focus on other positions like CB.
What do you guys think?
With the signing of Slauson from the NY Jets - I would say it's safe to say that OL is not our 1st priority at this point. There are plenty of 2nd/4th round Olineman that we can grab without a problem. So LB would be my first "need" on my list of "to do's". If Arthur Brown is gone - do we take Teo' ?? or D. Moore ?? I guess the question is which do we want/need more - ILB or OLB - do we need one more than the other ?? Lord knows we need depth at both.
I still think Te'o is a strong possibility for Chicago, his Combine performance was wrecked by the stress of all the attention he was getting prior to it, he's a solid ILB prospect for any team and recovered nicely at his pro day and could prove to be a steal. I like him in Chicago's defensive system but a DT is also a solid possibility.
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