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Black Bolt 01-31-2013 01:58 PM

Top Ten Pick and Why
 
Here is my top ten mock at the moment in whick I offer what could be the deciding factors in each of the selection:

1. Chiefs- QB Geno Smith

Deciding factor:

- I simply can't see Reed waiting for next year to get his QB. He knows how McKnabb allowed him to have a long tenure with the Eagles.

2. Jaguars- DE Bjoren Werner

Deciding factor:

Jaguars have an abysmal pass rush. They run a 4-3 defense and Werner is the best PURE 4-3 end. The fact that he played his college ball in state doesn't hurt.

3. Raiders- DT Star Lotulelei

Deciding factor:

Seymour is gone. The Raiders must keep FA Desmond Bryant and Kelly is highly overpaid and could be a cap casualty. They may lose not just one, but two starting DTs.

4. Eagles- OT Luke Joeckel

Deciding factor:

Eagles are in dire need of O-line help and the best OL prospect will be available when they pick.

5. Lions- CB Dee Millner

Yes, the Lions need some DE help, but it's a deep DE class. They need to add top tier talent to the back end of their defense if they ever hope to ascend to one of the NFL's top rated defenses. Plus, do they want top money tied up in three defensive lineman? Can't see it.

6. Browns- WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Deciding factor:

New DC Ray Horton has gone out of his way to talk about how he loves the versatility of the defensive players on the team and how he wants to play multiple fronts. Could be coach speak; however, the Browns have not had a blue chip WR since....since....wow, have they every had one? This may be strange pick at the moment, but I believe that Patterson is going to gain the reputations that he can be a difference maker on the NFL level and will thus move up the rankings. This is and offensive league, and the bottom line is that the Browns need playmakers to compete and they need to establish a pecking order among their WRs. They have the rest of the draft to address defense and don't be surprised if Horton targets some acquisitions from his former team, the Cardinals.

7. Cardinals- OT Eric Fisher

Deciding factor:

It's no secret that the Cardinal's offensive line is in shambles. They would like to improve upon the QB cluster they have, but there is simply no one available at the #7 pick that comes close to warranting a QB selection. They will take the building block while they are in position to.

8. Bills- QB Matt Barkley

Deciding factor:

Because the Bills have been outspoken about their desire to add a new signal caller, I think they could over reach for Barkley here. He's not that good IMO, but teams will have a new appreciation for Smith and Barkley after see the Senior Bowl QBs perform.

9. Jets- DE Ziggy Ansah

Deciding factor:

The Jets will be a in a great position with a number of pass rushers on the board, so it's going to come down to which one Ryan falls in love with. I think the winner will be Ansah. I think Ryan will see true star potential in Ansah and us him as a model of what he wants the team to look like under the second half of his tenure.

10. Titans- OG Chance Warmack

Deciding factor:

Jake Locker is who we thought he was. Well, some of us. The only way to salvage his career is for him to rely more heavily on the run and once again become a physical team. Also, the O-line in general is extremely old and needs some new blood. Demontre Moore is tempting here, but they still have money tied up in Morgan and Wimbley.

Babylon 01-31-2013 02:44 PM

I was going to add the two at the end there but you beat me to it. I would also add if one took the other it would work too.

You hit the nail on the head with the Titans needing some serious help on the O-line and more of a power running game. Might as well add a TE and a reliable #1 receiver too.

vidae 01-31-2013 03:23 PM

I love Geno and the write-up makes sense, so yay for you.

CrossOfDeath 01-31-2013 03:26 PM

Bjoern Werner is the single most overrated player in the draft IMO. Never been impressed. He puts up huge numbers against D2 and low level D1 teams. He has 4.5 career sacks against ranked teams and 0 against NFL caliber tackles. He plays on the left side going against the lesser athlete at RT and still doesn't dominant in big games.

Everyone wants to say Tank Carradine is a product of Bjoern Werner opposite him, however, if you watch their sacks it is the exact opposite. Tank Carradine was consistantly creating his own pass rusher and getting his own sacks while many of Werner's came when Jenkins(11) and Carradine(12) forced the QB toward him.

He has been marked as a high motor and high effort guy when in reality if his first rush is shut down then he gives up. I have not watched every defender in the draft, however, all the defenders I have watched Werner is easily the guy who is jogging and has his hands on hips the most.

His athletic ability is highly overrated. He has a decent first step to go along with good reaction times allowing for him to get off the ball in a hurry. After his great get off it is a plateu. He doesn't have great change of direction skills, long speed or flexibility.

Basically 2nd overall is disgusting. Don't feel bad you are not the only one as he has been rated in the Top 3 all year. I would bet the farm when April comes around he will not even be Top 10.

CrossOfDeath 01-31-2013 03:34 PM

As a Browns fan the Cordarrelle Patterson pick and write up are pretty bad as well. There is a reason Josh Gordon was taken with a 2nd in the supplemental draft after not playing for 2 seasons. The guy has deep speed unlike many in the NFL to go with a big body and good set of hands. He didn't even start until a quarter of the way into the season and put up some of if not the best rookie numbers in the league. He did not have the luxury of having a seasoned veteran or star rookie throwing him the ball. He is only going to get better from this point forward and is a legit #1 option.

Greg Little is also an improving young player only in his 2nd season who is getting a lot of heat for drops, however, if you look at the facts he only dropped 1 pass after the 6 to start the season up to the first Baltimore game. He has since fixed his drops issues and toward the end of the season was making plays after the catch.

Cleveland really needs a playmaking TE and more consistant QB for these young WRs to continue to develope. The last thing they need is another young inexperienced and raw prospect. The only way Cleveland should be looking at a WR in the drafts first round is if there were a Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green type cannot miss prospect.

Obviously we cannot predict what is going to happen in free agency, but the pick is going to come down to the best defender or QB that we couldn't address in free agency. As it stands now the biggest needs are Pass Rusher, Corner, Free Saftey and Quarterback.

The way you have the board falling I would take anyone of Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo(as risky as it may be) or Kenny Vaccaro(getting the Barron treatment being underrated bc of position).

Babylon 01-31-2013 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossOfDeath (Post 3261316)
Bjoern Werner is the single most overrated player in the draft IMO. Never been impressed. He puts up huge numbers against D2 and low level D1 teams. He has 4.5 career sacks against ranked teams and 0 against NFL caliber tackles. He plays on the left side going against the lesser athlete at RT and still doesn't dominant in big games.

Everyone wants to say Tank Carradine is a product of Bjoern Werner opposite him, however, if you watch their sacks it is the exact opposite. Tank Carradine was consistantly creating his own pass rusher and getting his own sacks while many of Werner's came when Jenkins(11) and Carradine(12) forced the QB toward him.

He has been marked as a high motor and high effort guy when in reality if his first rush is shut down then he gives up. I have not watched every defender in the draft, however, all the defenders I have watched Werner is easily the guy who is jogging and has his hands on hips the most.

His athletic ability is highly overrated. He has a decent first step to go along with good reaction times allowing for him to get off the ball in a hurry. After his great get off it is a plateu. He doesn't have great change of direction skills, long speed or flexibility.

Basically 2nd overall is disgusting. Don't feel bad you are not the only one as he has been rated in the Top 3 all year. I would bet the farm when April comes around he will not even be Top 10.

So it wasn't like FSU played a bunch of ranked teams this year. One of the two really good teams they faced this year Florida (other being Clemson) he had 3.5 sacks. I guess if there is a counter argument to everything then i would say maybe Jeff Driskel held the ball too long or the Florida O-line stinks, both of which may be true.

Also noticable was that opposing offenses tended to go the opposite direction of where Werner was lined up, especially after Carradine went down. He had 8 sacks against Wake, Miami, Florida and Maryland so that competition is what it is. You could probably come up with an argument for anyone you tried to make a case against.

I happen to agree that the effort isn't 100% all the time but i think he's still raw in terms of playing football and at the next level he'll be in a rotation where he sees half the defensive snaps he did at FSU, at least early in his career.

Bottom line i think he's a 6-10 range player and can't really see him getting by both Cleveland and Tennessee.

bitonti 01-31-2013 04:24 PM

this andy reid - mcnabb - geno smith connection is tenuous at best.

Black Bolt 01-31-2013 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossOfDeath (Post 3261316)
Bjoern Werner is the single most overrated player in the draft IMO. Never been impressed. He puts up huge numbers against D2 and low level D1 teams. He has 4.5 career sacks against ranked teams and 0 against NFL caliber tackles. He plays on the left side going against the lesser athlete at RT and still doesn't dominant in big games.

Everyone wants to say Tank Carradine is a product of Bjoern Werner opposite him, however, if you watch their sacks it is the exact opposite. Tank Carradine was consistantly creating his own pass rusher and getting his own sacks while many of Werner's came when Jenkins(11) and Carradine(12) forced the QB toward him.

He has been marked as a high motor and high effort guy when in reality if his first rush is shut down then he gives up. I have not watched every defender in the draft, however, all the defenders I have watched Werner is easily the guy who is jogging and has his hands on hips the most.

His athletic ability is highly overrated. He has a decent first step to go along with good reaction times allowing for him to get off the ball in a hurry. After his great get off it is a plateu. He doesn't have great change of direction skills, long speed or flexibility.

Basically 2nd overall is disgusting. Don't feel bad you are not the only one as he has been rated in the Top 3 all year. I would bet the farm when April comes around he will not even be Top 10.

I personally believe he is a little overrated, but it doesn't mean that teams agree with me. He's a clean player with no off the field concerns or major injuries and this helps his stock. And like I said, he is the best pure 4-3 DE amongst the ones rated in the first half of the round.

Black Bolt 01-31-2013 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossOfDeath (Post 3261326)
As a Browns fan the Cordarrelle Patterson pick and write up are pretty bad as well. There is a reason Josh Gordon was taken with a 2nd in the supplemental draft after not playing for 2 seasons. The guy has deep speed unlike many in the NFL to go with a big body and good set of hands. He didn't even start until a quarter of the way into the season and put up some of if not the best rookie numbers in the league. He did not have the luxury of having a seasoned veteran or star rookie throwing him the ball. He is only going to get better from this point forward and is a legit #1 option.

Greg Little is also an improving young player only in his 2nd season who is getting a lot of heat for drops, however, if you look at the facts he only dropped 1 pass after the 6 to start the season up to the first Baltimore game. He has since fixed his drops issues and toward the end of the season was making plays after the catch.

Cleveland really needs a playmaking TE and more consistant QB for these young WRs to continue to develope. The last thing they need is another young inexperienced and raw prospect. The only way Cleveland should be looking at a WR in the drafts first round is if there were a Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green type cannot miss prospect.

Obviously we cannot predict what is going to happen in free agency, but the pick is going to come down to the best defender or QB that we couldn't address in free agency. As it stands now the biggest needs are Pass Rusher, Corner, Free Saftey and Quarterback.

The way you have the board falling I would take anyone of Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo(as risky as it may be) or Kenny Vaccaro(getting the Barron treatment being underrated bc of position).

That's fine. The thing is, the offense still needs to improve by leaps and bounds. Gordon shows great ability, but is he reliable at this point? Far from it. Does he run the full route tree? I haven't seen it. You can disagree that Patterson is the way to go, but you really can't disagree that he would add a great offensive weapon to the team and make you offense explosive. Have you seen Atlanta's receivers?

As far as TE, obviously there is not TE to be had at the #6 pick. As far as Little, he's "pretty bad" as a player. Oh, and Jordan and Mingo have MUCH to prove in my book.

Black Bolt 01-31-2013 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti (Post 3261377)
this andy reid - mcnabb - geno smith connection is tenuous at best.

How so? In 1999, Reid was a rookie HC and McNabb was the team's #1 pick. Reid is in is first year with the Chefs, their #1 need clearly is QB.

Also, many people thought McNabb was picked too high, but obvious Andy didn't care because he knew he was right about the pick. So I don't know if I'd call it a connection, but the situtions somewhat parallel each other.

Black Bolt 01-31-2013 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae (Post 3261313)
I love Geno and the write-up makes sense, so yay for you.

Thanks, I thought it did, but someone told me otherwise.

eliasrapp98 01-31-2013 05:40 PM

Can you stop saying that the Eagles NEED an OL... We had 4 injured starters last year so of course the line sucked, but next year we have Peters, Mathis, Kelce, Watkins, Herremans... I agree we should draft an OL, but c'mon, we don't NEED an OL.

T-RICH49 01-31-2013 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae (Post 3261313)
I love Geno and the write-up makes sense, so yay for you.

what he said x1,000,000

Black Bolt 01-31-2013 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eliasrapp98 (Post 3261446)
Can you stop saying that the Eagles NEED an OL... We had 4 injured starters last year so of course the line sucked, but next year we have Peters, Mathis, Kelce, Watkins, Herremans... I agree we should draft an OL, but c'mon, we don't NEED an OL.

I said the Eagles need O-line help and I doubt anyone disagrees with that.

pierce2walker 01-31-2013 07:52 PM

How is locker "who you thought he was"? He had an injury plagued season behind a terrible OL. I think its fair to say he is still TBD. While interior OL is a major need, the Titans passed on DeCastro at 20 last year so I don't see why would go OG this year at #10, especially after the HC said they don't believe in drafting interior OL in round 1 following that draft. This philosophy should be fine this year as well with a very deep OL class.

Black Bolt 01-31-2013 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pierce2walker (Post 3261518)
How is locker "who you thought he was"? He had an injury plagued season behind a terrible OL. I think its fair to say he is still TBD. While interior OL is a major need, the Titans passed on DeCastro at 20 last year so I don't see why would go OG this year at #10, especially after the HC said they don't believe in drafting interior OL in round 1 following that draft. This philosophy should be fine this year as well with a very deep OL class.

The fact that the passed on interior line last year is one of the chief reasons why they could go interior line this year. Are you aware of the age and performance of their line? Finally, Warmack is a rare prospect even compared to DeCastro.

As far as Locker, he sucks in the NFL just like he sucked in college. That's my opinion on him and it's not exactly new.

BallerT1215 01-31-2013 08:30 PM

I still believe in Barkley. If the Bills took him at # 8, I would be satisfied with it because I feel like he can be a franchise QB. Been starting since a freshman at USC, and he has some serious mental toughness. If he is playing bad in the beginning of the game, he still feels like he can make some plays on the field at any moment.

I still dig Barkley a lot. So I would not mind him at all and would really not look at it as a reach.

Malaka 01-31-2013 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BallerT1215 (Post 3261544)
I still believe in Barkley. If the Bills took him at # 8, I would be satisfied with it because I feel like he can be a franchise QB. Been starting since a freshman at USC, and he has some serious mental toughness. If he is playing bad in the beginning of the game, he still feels like he can make some plays on the field at any moment.

I still dig Barkley a lot. So I would not mind him at all and would really not look at it as a reach.

I honestly feel like Ryan Fitzpatrick IS Matt Barkley.

descendency 01-31-2013 08:48 PM

I am honestly not sure if there is a worse place for Matt Barkley than Buffalo.

pierce2walker 01-31-2013 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt (Post 3261538)
The fact that the passed on interior line last year is one of the chief reasons why they could go interior line this year. Are you aware of the age and performance of their line? Finally, Warmack is a rare prospect even compared to DeCastro.

As far as Locker, he sucks in the NFL just like he sucked in college. That's my opinion on him and it's not exactly new.

Could they go OL? It's not impossible, but I'd say unlikely at this point. The Titans HC (who was a former OL coach) stated that their philosophy was that they did not believe in taking interior OL in round 1 (he said they only believe in taking OTs in round 1). I don't see why that philosophy wouldn't carry over to this year. Yes, I'm very aware of the OL situation, thus why I said that "interior OL is a major need", but that doesn't mean that they have to draft an OG at #10, especially considering that OGs are rarely picked in the top 10, also added the fact that this is a very deep OL class. I do agree that Warmack is a rare prospect, but DeCastro was also considered to be elite last year. Maybe not quite the same prospect, but still elite. The fact of the matter is that they both play OG. Warmack is a better prospect than DeCastro, but theres also a huge different between pick #20 and pick #10. So is Warmack really lightyears ahead of DeCastro PLUS the fact that the Titans have been against drafting OL in round 1 (nonetheless at #10)? That's why I say its unlikely.

In regards to Locker, as I said he had an injury riddled season behind an OL that we both agree is really bad. I don't think its fair to judge a 1st year starter based on that kind of year. But if you want your argument to purely consist of "he sucks", then I guess there's not much that will persuade you.

Black Bolt 01-31-2013 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pierce2walker (Post 3261588)
Could they go OL? It's not impossible, but I'd say unlikely at this point. The Titans HC (who was a former OL coach) stated that their philosophy was that they did not believe in taking interior OL in round 1 (he said they only believe in taking OTs in round 1). I don't see why that philosophy wouldn't carry over to this year. Yes, I'm very aware of the OL situation, thus why I said that "interior OL is a major need", but that doesn't mean that they have to draft an OG at #10, especially considering that OGs are rarely picked in the top 10, also added the fact that this is a very deep OL class. I do agree that Warmack is a rare prospect, but DeCastro was also considered to be elite last year. Maybe not quite the same prospect, but still elite. The fact of the matter is that they both play OG. Warmack is a better prospect than DeCastro, but theres also a huge different between pick #20 and pick #10. So is Warmack really lightyears ahead of DeCastro PLUS the fact that the Titans have been against drafting OL in round 1 (nonetheless at #10)? That's why I say its unlikely.

In regards to Locker, as I said he had an injury riddled season behind an OL that we both agree is really bad. I don't think its fair to judge a 1st year starter based on that kind of year. But if you want your argument to purely consist of "he sucks", then I guess there's not much that will persuade you.

Ranking ten spots higher does not equal light years better. Our HC Dennis Allen said that the ZBS is the best blocking system their is. A year later, we are moving to a power blocking system. What coaches say is far from permanent. Enough about Locker, this thread is not about him. Suffice it for me to say AGAIN, I am not simply judging him on his performance in the NFL, but also entering the NFL as a college prospect.

BallerT1215 01-31-2013 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by descendency (Post 3261566)
I am honestly not sure if there is a worse place for Matt Barkley than Buffalo.

I'm assuming the "swirling winds" argument??

wadsworth 02-01-2013 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt (Post 3261264)
Here is my top ten mock at the moment in whick I offer what could be the deciding factors in each of the selection:

2. Jaguars- DE Bjoren Werner

Deciding factor:

Jaguars have an abysmal pass rush. They run a 4-3 defense and Werner is the best PURE 4-3 end. The fact that he played his college ball in state doesn't hurt.


In Seattle, Gus Bradley did not use traditional 4-3 DEs. He might change his approach in Jacksonville, but if not he will look for smaller, faster guys.

Brown Leader 02-01-2013 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt (Post 3261264)

6. Browns- WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Deciding factor:

New DC Ray Horton has gone out of his way to talk about how he loves the versatility of the defensive players on the team and how he wants to play multiple fronts. Could be coach speak; however, the Browns have not had a blue chip WR since....since....wow, have they every had one? This may be strange pick at the moment, but I believe that Patterson is going to gain the reputations that he can be a difference maker on the NFL level and will thus move up the rankings. This is and offensive league, and the bottom line is that the Browns need playmakers to compete and they need to establish a pecking order among their WRs. They have the rest of the draft to address defense and don't be surprised if Horton targets some acquisitions from his former team, the Cardinals.

ouch. (10)

mightytitan9 02-01-2013 01:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt (Post 3261264)
10. Titans- OG Chance Warmack

Deciding factor:

Jake Locker is who we thought he was. Well, some of us. The only way to salvage his career is for him to rely more heavily on the run and once again become a physical team. Also, the O-line in general is extremely old and needs some new blood. Demontre Moore is tempting here, but they still have money tied up in Morgan and Wimbley.

Warmack could be taken here, but it is far from a lock. We haven't taken an interior lineman higher than the 3rd since 1999. Pair that with the fact we have one of the best OT tandems in the league and it's no guarantee with go Warmack in the first.

Despite belief, our offensive line played much better in 12 than they did in 11, and that was with starting Center Eugene Amano missing the entire season, Guard Leroy Harris missing 8 games, Steve Hutinson missing 4 games, David Stewart missing 4 games. We were signing guys and starting them by the end of the season, but we our scheme was drastically better than the year before.

Steve Hutchinson is still a serviceable player, although not the great he once was, he may or may not retire. Eugene Amano will likely be cut, or at the minimum have his contract restructured greatly. In his absence, the Titans developed Fernando Velasco and he will likely take over at Center, possibly allowing Amano to move back to his more natural position of Guard (if he stays with the team.) Leroy Harris was said to look like one of the best Guards Munch has ever seen a few years ago, fast forward and I'm not sure what happened. Either way he'll likely be on his way out.

I'm sure we'll address the interior line sometime during the first 4 rounds of the draft, but whether that's in the first with Warmack, 2nd with Warford or Barrett Jones, 3rd with Travis Frederick or 4th with Brian Winters is yet to be seen.

I think Warmack is a much better prospect than DeCastro ( I was one of the few saying he was overhyped last year) but because of that to lock him to being a Titan is not accurate


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