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-   -   Is Landry Jones Undervalued? (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=55851)

AcheTen (Thumper) 03-04-2013 10:03 AM

Is Landry Jones Undervalued?
 
Everyone seems to be down on Landry Jones as a prospect. Why is that? Is it for vague reasons such as "unable to win the big game"? Not "clutch"? Because if you look at his college stats, the man has A.) consistently put up spectacular numbers in terms of completion %, TD passes, and Yards Per Attempt B.) consistently been a winner for his four years at Oklahoma. This is the kind of resume that usually gets QBs picked in the top-10, but we are not talking about Landry Jones as a top-10 prospect.

I'm here to say that Landry Jones might just be undervalued, and that whoever picks him in this year's draft might be getting the real sleeper of this draft a la Russell Wilson last year. This guy could easily be the best QB of this draft and have a career that is almost as good as Andrew Luck, and could clearly be better than somebody like Andy Dalton.

mightytitan9 03-04-2013 10:07 AM

yes. I think in the end he could very well be the best QB from this class. Funny you can say that about 10 guys.

He struggled this past season for numerous reasons, he didn't have a favorite WR like he did in the past, and OU didn't have a very good run game.

Sure he needs work, but he's got all the tools just needs a little coaching. To me he's a similar prospect as Nick Foles was coming out last season

FUNBUNCHER 03-04-2013 10:09 AM

Can you tell me what are Landry Jones' 5 best wins the last two seasons??

His best two wins last season??

I have this impression Jones comes up small on the big stage, consistently.

Iamcanadian 03-04-2013 10:09 AM

Jones has everything physically you look for in a franchise QB, size, arm strength etc. but something is missing mentally. His pocket presence is mediocre and you see him panic when things don't go as desired. These are things that are very difficult to overcome through training, a QB is either mentally tough or he's not and Jones isn't, end of story.

AcheTen (Thumper) 03-04-2013 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER (Post 3290840)
Can you tell me what are Landry Jones' 5 best wins the last two seasons??

His best two wins last season??

I have this impression Jones comes up small on the big stage, consistently.

"Comes up small on the big stage" is a completely vague and nebulous concept that ultimately means nothing.

John Elway was accused of "coming up small" despite consistently winning regular season games for most of his career until he won two Super Bowls in his late 30s.

Joe Flacco was accused of "coming up small" despite consistently winning games in the regular season until recently.

I'm a firm believer that consistency is far more valuable as a projective tool than "winning big games". Because winning games is often about lucky bounces in a play or two. Consistent winning over a long stretch of time is about talent and preparation.

At Oklahoma, Landry Jones consistently won 10+ games every year. He put up good completion % (63%+ last three years) and threw 38, 29, and 30 TDs in his last three years. He had a Yards Per Attempt of just under 8.0 consistently in his last three years.

That, to me, is the sign of a consistently good QB. If he a few lucky bounces fall his way, he might have won a title at Oklahoma, but he didn't. When he gets drafted into the NFL he'll be consistently good as well, and that's all you can ask of your QB in the NFL. Whether he wins a Super Bowl or not will be about how good his defense will be, and how lucky he gets in the playoffs.

Don Vito 03-04-2013 10:21 AM

If the Patriots trade Mallet I would like for us to take a look at Jones. He has the tools you want but would really benefit from sitting and learning behind a good NFL QB and coaching staff.

SF Dolphin Fan 03-04-2013 10:23 AM

It's funny how much overrated Jones was a year ago and now he could be one of the biggest steals in the draft. Some team will get a decent qb maybe in the 3rd round.

I think he could be a valuable backup at the very least.

K Train 03-04-2013 10:30 AM

i thought he was massively overrated from day one, but you barely know he exists anymore because no one cares.

I do think hes become undervalued though, and its weird because i was legitimately a hater of his with any first round talks. i think he kind of compares to JP Losman personally, but he can definitely be better than that

jrdrylie 03-04-2013 10:32 AM

Not coming up in the big game is kind of a myth. In his career, he had 17 big games (rivals, championship games, bowl games, highly ranked teams). Oklahoma was 12-5 in those games. Jones completed 63.3% of his passes, averaged 328 yards per game, and had 29 TDs to 16 INTs. A few of those losses were games with scores like 45-38. Can you really blame Jones for a loss when the offense puts up 7 TDs?

You want to criticize Jones for "not coming up in big games" as a lack of leadership, intangibles, or it factors? Why not kill Tyler Wilson for the same thing. His coach leaves and the team implodes. Where is the leadership there? An SEC team that is a year removed from being a top-five team should not go 4-8 with a loss to UL-Monroe. Jones will be a much better pro than most think an I would take him well before a guy like Wilson.

Nastradamus 03-04-2013 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3290833)
Everyone seems to be down on Landry Jones as a prospect. Why is that? Is it for vague reasons such as "unable to win the big game"? Not "clutch"? Because if you look at his college stats, the man has A.) consistently put up spectacular numbers in terms of completion %, TD passes, and Yards Per Attempt B.) consistently been a winner for his four years at Oklahoma. This is the kind of resume that usually gets QBs picked in the top-10, but we are not talking about Landry Jones as a top-10 prospect.

I'm here to say that Landry Jones might just be undervalued, and that whoever picks him in this year's draft might be getting the real sleeper of this draft a la Russell Wilson last year. This guy could easily be the best QB of this draft and have a career that is almost as good as Andrew Luck, and could clearly be better than somebody like Andy Dalton.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl...-forecast-2012

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...-forecast-2013

Iamcanadian 03-04-2013 10:51 AM

Jones will be drafted in rounds 3-5, maybe the light goes on but obviously, GM's and scouts doubt it and feel that his flaws are uncorrectable. Personably I think every QB in this year's class has serious flaws and inconsistencies, Jones are just worse than most.

AcheTen (Thumper) 03-04-2013 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iamcanadian (Post 3290875)
Jones will be drafted in rounds 3-5, maybe the light goes on but obviously, GM's and scouts doubt it and feel that his flaws are uncorrectable. Personably I think every QB in this year's class has serious flaws and inconsistencies, Jones are just worse than most.

How can you possibly say that Landry Jones, who put up great stats (high completion %, around 30 TDs every year, nearly 8.0 YPA every year) and won 10+ games every year at Oklahoma, is worst in any way than guys like Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, and Ryan Nassib, all of whom have neither the stats nor the wins that Jones has? And Jones has prototypical size and arm strength for a QB prospect as well.

It's actually pretty insane how little people think of this guy.

Nastradamus 03-04-2013 11:13 AM

I think pocket presence may be his biggest issue. He has a little Blaine Gabbert in him. An NFL QB can't **** himself when there's pressure on him.

AcheTen (Thumper) 03-04-2013 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nastradamus (Post 3290896)
I think pocket presence may be his biggest issue. He has a little Blaine Gabbert in him. An NFL QB can't **** himself when there's pressure on him.

Here's the difference, though.

Blaine Gabbert stats last two years in college:

Year, School, Conf, Class, Pos, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
2009,Missouri, Big 12, SO, QB, 262, 445, 58.9,3593, 8.1, 8.2, 24, 9, 140.5
2010,Missouri, Big 12, JR, QB, 301, 475, 63.4,3186, 6.7, 6.5, 16, 9, 127.0

Landry Jones stats last two years in college:

Year, School, Conf, Class, Pos, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
2011,Oklahoma,Big 12,JR, QB, 355, 562, 63.2, 4463, 7.9, 7.8, 29, 15, 141.6
2012,Oklahoma,Big 12,SR, QB, 367, 555, 66.1, 4267, 7.7, 7.9, 30, 11, 144.6

Higher completion percentage, higher yardage, more consistently solid Y/A, more TD passes.

Gabbert wasn't a great prospect coming out of college based on his production, so it isn't any surprise that he sucked in the NFL. However, you don't be as consistently good as Jones has been if you're "scared in the pocket" constantly.

Iamcanadian 03-04-2013 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3290901)
Here's the difference, though.

Blaine Gabbert stats last two years in college:

Year, School, Conf, Class, Pos, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
2009,Missouri, Big 12, SO, QB, 262, 445, 58.9,3593, 8.1, 8.2, 24, 9, 140.5
2010,Missouri, Big 12, JR, QB, 301, 475, 63.4,3186, 6.7, 6.5, 16, 9, 127.0

Landry Jones stats last two years in college:

Year, School, Conf, Class, Pos, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
2011,Oklahoma,Big 12,JR, QB, 355, 562, 63.2, 4463, 7.9, 7.8, 29, 15, 141.6
2012,Oklahoma,Big 12,SR, QB, 367, 555, 66.1, 4267, 7.7, 7.9, 30, 11, 144.6

Higher completion percentage, higher yardage, more consistently solid Y/A, more TD passes.

Gabbert wasn't a great prospect coming out of college based on his production, so it isn't any surprise that he sucked in the NFL. However, you don't be as consistently good as Jones has been if you're "scared in the pocket" constantly.

Yeah, but Oklahoma consistently has good OL's while Missouri has mediocre ones and adding in Gabbert's Soph year is hardly worth noting.
Jones is fine as long as he is clean in the pocket but comes apart when pressured even a little. Pro QB's get even less time to throw a ball and I seriously doubt Jones can handle it and I seriously doubt pro scouts and GM's feel he can either.
The one attribute that all pro QB's must have is mental toughness and that is Jones's major weakness. Nobody is denying that he has the physical tools but if he cannot standout in this mediocre class of QB's, the likelihood, he'll standout at the next level, is practically nil.

AcheTen (Thumper) 03-04-2013 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iamcanadian (Post 3290907)
Yeah, but Oklahoma consistently has good OL's while Missouri has mediocre ones and adding in Gabbert's Soph year is hardly worth noting.
Jones is fine as long as he is clean in the pocket but comes apart when pressured even a little. Pro QB's get even less time to throw a ball and I seriously doubt Jones can handle it and I seriously doubt pro scouts and GM's feel he can either.
The one attribute that all pro QB's must have is mental toughness and that is Jones's major weakness. Nobody is denying that he has the physical tools but if he cannot standout in this mediocre class of QB's, the likelihood, he'll standout at the next level, is practically nil.

The problem is that you can't measure "mental toughness". How do you know how mentally tough he is? You can get a feel for it, especially if you know a person closely, but I'm sure you've never even met the guy, let alone talked to him extensively. All you know of his "toughness" you have to deduce from watching a few games.

Whereas stats like completion %, Y/A, wins, etc are all easily measurable and can give us a good picture of a prospect (although not fault-free obviously).

Iamcanadian 03-04-2013 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3290881)
How can you possibly say that Landry Jones, who put up great stats (high completion %, around 30 TDs every year, nearly 8.0 YPA every year) and won 10+ games every year at Oklahoma, is worst in any way than guys like Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, and Ryan Nassib, all of whom have neither the stats nor the wins that Jones has? And Jones has prototypical size and arm strength for a QB prospect as well.

It's actually pretty insane how little people think of this guy.

I'm not enamoured by any of those either, it's a very mediocre class of QB's, but to compare the stats of QB's who played on mediocre college teams to those of Jones who played on a top Division 1 program, isn't realistic, Oklahoma QB's are always going to look good on paper but that isn't how GM's and pro scouts judge a QB prospect. They look to see how he performs when he is pressured and Jones comes apart everytime he is faced with somebody in his face or even thinks somebody is in his face. He completely lacks mental toughness and those types usually fail at the next level.

AcheTen (Thumper) 03-04-2013 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iamcanadian (Post 3290915)
I'm not enamoured by any of those either, it's a very mediocre class of QB's, but to compare the stats of QB's who played on mediocre college teams to those of Jones who played on a top Division 1 program, isn't realistic, Oklahoma QB's are always going to look good on paper but that isn't how GM's and pro scouts judge a QB prospect. They look to see how he performs when he is pressured and Jones comes apart everytime he is faced with somebody in his face or even thinks somebody is in his face. He completely lacks mental toughness and those types usually fail at the next level.

Again, how can you definitively say that someone lacks "mental toughness"? Do you know the guy? Have you played alongside him or coached him in high-leverage situations?

That is just not realistic for someone like you to make that claim about a person.

Shane P. Hallam 03-04-2013 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3290881)
How can you possibly say that Landry Jones, who put up great stats (high completion %, around 30 TDs every year, nearly 8.0 YPA every year) and won 10+ games every year at Oklahoma, is worst in any way than guys like Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, and Ryan Nassib, all of whom have neither the stats nor the wins that Jones has?

Because scouting doesn't include wins and stats usually.

Iamcanadian 03-04-2013 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3290911)
The problem is that you can't measure "mental toughness". How do you know how mentally tough he is? You can get a feel for it, especially if you know a person closely, but I'm sure you've never even met the guy, let alone talked to him extensively. All you know of his "toughness" you have to deduce from watching a few games.

Whereas stats like completion %, Y/A, wins, etc are all easily measurable and can give us a good picture of a prospect (although not fault-free obviously).

No they can't. Great stats in college mean little to pro scouts and GM's, they know from experience that these can be very misleading. Texas Tech QB's had great stats when Leach coached them but non were every even remotely successful at the next level. Pro scouts and GM's look to see how a QB reacts under stress, even if it is only occasionally in a college game and Jones fails the eye test, which is why he is getting so little love from these people. They know he has all the physical tools in the world but they won't help you at the next level without mental toughness.

They have met Jones and interviewed him and found him wanting in their eyes. Sure, I haven't met him but I can at least see, that he comes apart when pressured and QB's with mental toughness just don't look the same as Jones in my 55 years of watching and judging college QB's.

You just don't want to ask the question, 'why is Jones, with all the physical tools in the world, getting so little love from pro scouts and GM's, even with all his great stats in this mediocre class of QB's?'

AcheTen (Thumper) 03-04-2013 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam (Post 3290925)
Because scouting doesn't include wins and stats usually.

It would be silly to ignore a disparity between two prospects in terms of important stats like completion percentage, which historically has a high correlation to future NFL success (or more commonly a high correlation to LACK of NFL success if completion % is low as it is with a number of prospects like Mike Glennon and Tyler Bray).

Black Bolt 03-04-2013 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iamcanadian (Post 3290915)
I'm not enamoured by any of those either, it's a very mediocre class of QB's, but to compare the stats of QB's who played on mediocre college teams to those of Jones who played on a top Division 1 program, isn't realistic, Oklahoma QB's are always going to look good on paper but that isn't how GM's and pro scouts judge a QB prospect. They look to see how he performs when he is pressured and Jones comes apart everytime he is faced with somebody in his face or even thinks somebody is in his face. He completely lacks mental toughness and those types usually fail at the next level.

This^. The OP is in love with statitics.

AcheTen (Thumper) 03-04-2013 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iamcanadian (Post 3290927)
No they can't. Great stats in college mean little to pro scouts and GM's, they know from experience that these can be very misleading. Texas Tech QB's had great stats when Leach coached them but non were every even remotely successful at the next level. Pro scouts and GM's look to see how a QB reacts under stress, even if it is only occasionally in a college game and Jones fails the eye test, which is why he is getting so little love from these people. They know he has all the physical tools in the world but they won't help you at the next level without mental toughness.

They have met Jones and interviewed him and found him wanting in their eyes. Sure, I haven't met him but I can at least see, that he comes apart when pressured and QB's with mental toughness just don't look the same as Jones in my 55 yeasrs of watching and judging college QB's.

Mental Toughness is a completely intangible quality that is extremely hard to measure based on simply watching some game tapes of a player. How can you accurately judge such an ephemeral quality because you saw a guy throw a football or fail to step up in the pocket when you thought he should have? It just isn't a reliable assessment.

Quote:

You just don't want to ask the question, 'why is Jones, with all the physical tools in the world, getting so little love from pro scouts and GM's, even with all his great stats in this mediocre class of QB's?'
'why is Russell Wilson, with all the physical tools in the world, getting so little love from pro scouts and GM's, even with all his great stats in this class of QB's?'

Height was the only problem with Wilson. And scouts and GMs were shown to be wrong about that prejudice against lack of height.

Similarly, "not winning the big game" and "lack of toughness" are the problems with Landry Jones. I believe that scouts and GMs will be proven wrong about these prejudices against completely non-quantifiable qualities this year too.

Iamcanadian 03-04-2013 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3290928)
It would be silly to ignore a disparity between two prospects in terms of important stats like completion percentage, which historically has a high correlation to future NFL success (or more commonly a high correlation to LACK of NFL success if completion % is low as it is with a number of prospects like Mike Glennon and Tyler Bray).

It only has a correlation when 2 prospects are considered to have a realistic shot to be successful at the next level, it means little when a prospect fails the eye test as Jones does.

Black Bolt 03-04-2013 11:57 AM

Landry is not undervalued, except perhaps if you are talking about in direct comparison to some of the other QB who have been overvalued IMO, and that does not equate to a compliment. Anyone who has watched Landry and not simply pulled up his stats can tell you that he is flat out bad in pressure situations. He is never the difference in a positive way, regardless of the talent around him. Under pressure, his accuracy, his decision making and his pocket presence all idle down a notch or two. And he's shown that consistent trend throughout his career. I recall one game in which the announced summed it up nicely. Oklahoma was behind in the 4th quarter. The announcers challenged him to step up and make himself relevant in this defining situation. Of course he flopped. But the commentary let's you know that the book on Landry was out a long time ago. You asked, I answered.


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