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-   -   Prediction: The 49ers defense will not finish top-10 in 2013 (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=56140)

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-02-2013 07:55 PM

Prediction: The 49ers defense will not finish top-10 in 2013
 
I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.

Ness 04-02-2013 07:59 PM


farfromforgotten 04-02-2013 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3319258)
I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.

You're "sick of people" huh? Taking it pretty personal there, aren't ya buddy? If you say so. Good luck with that. :wave:

Bob Sanders Dreadlock 04-02-2013 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3319258)

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

And Aldon Smith is moving in an upward direction still.

Ness 04-02-2013 08:10 PM

Willis, Brooks, McDonald, Bowman, Aldon Smith, Culliver, and Brown are on the severe decline?

And who assumed the 49ers defense would be a top ten unit "forever and forever"? Please, I'd like to know who these people are and what exactly was said.

Guru 04-02-2013 09:02 PM

I'll bet you $100 that you're wrong.

The Alex 04-02-2013 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3319258)
I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.

Didn't you have the Rams ahead of the 49ers in your power rankings for next season?

G Mobile 04-02-2013 09:33 PM

Justin Smith missed not only 1 game, BUT 2! Severe Decline! They lost 2 good players, but they are still really talented as a group.

Smith played through significant injury last year when he probably should have shut it down if they werent in the playoffs.

BallerT1215 04-02-2013 09:49 PM

How many bath salts did you go with before creating this thread....

king2am 04-02-2013 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3319258)
I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline.

This is my favorite.

Clearly you think J. Smith is a shart away from an old person's home, so i'll leave him out of this.

Simply quote this post, and bold the ones that are on the "severe" decline.

Aldon Smith
Patrick Willis
Navarro Bowman
Ahmad Brooks
Ray McDonald
Chris Culliver
Tarrell Brown
Donte Whitner
Carlos Rogers

I left off Glenn Dorsey, even though he'll likely be a starter.

Of that list, the only ones on the back end of their career would be Whitner and Rogers. And of the two, Rogers can still play at a high level in the slot with the young guys on the edge.

And please, while you're at it, I would love your definition of "severe decline".

49erNation85 04-02-2013 10:15 PM

Don't for get about Aso now who we just signed for under 2 mil for one year! Gonna be a good season 49er fans.

Shupp 04-02-2013 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3319258)
I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.

Niner haters unite!!!! lol....so sad, so pathetic....

phlysac 04-02-2013 10:59 PM

AcheTen is the OP?

Now I REALLY hope the 49ers draft Ziggy Ansah.

;)

BandwagonPunditry 04-03-2013 07:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3319258)
I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.

I know, it's a disaster. We've lost our starting FS and need a decent young player to groom behind J. Smith. If only we had a decent GM and a huge stock of draft picks to play with...

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-03-2013 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ness (Post 3319270)
Willis, Brooks, McDonald, Bowman, Aldon Smith, Culliver, and Brown are on the severe decline?

Willis and Bowman are great players who are still in their prime. However, they also happen to play the least important position on defense: inside linebacker.

If the secondary isn't covering, and the pass rush isn't getting there, the best inside linebackers in the world don't matter. We saw that last year in the latter half of the season and in the playoffs.

Ahmad Brooks is an average player. Ray McDonald is nothing special. Cris Culliver gets burnt in coverage often. Terrel Brown is no great talent.

Aldon Smith is good, but without Justin Smith holding guards I don't see a special 1-on-1 pass rusher capable of beating individual blocks.

Quote:

And who assumed the 49ers defense would be a top ten unit "forever and forever"? Please, I'd like to know who these people are and what exactly was said.
There's just a general sentiment on this forum that "let's pencil in the 49ers as the best team! Their defense is a lockdown unit!". I think their offense will be great, but I also think that the defense will not be so great and they will end up looking like the 2010 Saints.

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-03-2013 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by king2am (Post 3319410)
This is my favorite.

Clearly you think J. Smith is a shart away from an old person's home, so i'll leave him out of this.

Simply quote this post, and bold the ones that are on the "severe" decline.

Aldon Smith
Patrick Willis
Navarro Bowman
Ahmad Brooks
Ray McDonald
Chris Culliver
Tarrell Brown
Donte Whitner
Carlos Rogers

Not a single special talent among those except for Willis and Bowman and they play the least important position on defense.

Brooks is an average 3-4 OLB.

McDonald is a solid run stuffer; nothing more nothing less.

Culliver and Brown are mediocre DBs who look average if the DLine isn't dominating.

And Whitner and Rogers are cooked older guys who actually played on a below-average level last year and I will be *shocked* if they play on anything but a mediocre level going forward, or even stay on the roster for more than a year.

Ness 04-03-2013 02:08 PM

Ahmad Brooks is an average 3-4 OLB. Goodnight ladies and gentlemen.

Denver Bronco56 04-03-2013 02:42 PM

The MLB is the least position on defense? The bath salts are really getting to you buddy, the MLB is the QB of the D and its not by chance the Ravens or Bears were so dominate for so long due to Urlacher and Lewis.

Now fast forward to the 49ers and Bowman and Willis play a huge role into why they are so dominate also.

king2am 04-03-2013 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3319858)
Not a single special talent among those except for Willis and Bowman and they play the least important position on defense.

Brooks is an average 3-4 OLB.

McDonald is a solid run stuffer; nothing more nothing less.

Culliver and Brown are mediocre DBs who look average if the DLine isn't dominating.

And Whitner and Rogers are cooked older guys who actually played on a below-average level last year and I will be *shocked* if they play on anything but a mediocre level going forward, or even stay on the roster for more than a year.

Use your crazy eyes and read. Bold the ones on the severe decline, as you put it.

And in the other thread I already covered how willis and bowman do things that other ilbs don't - so dismissing their impact is ignorant.

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-03-2013 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by king2am (Post 3319933)
Use your crazy eyes and read. Bold the ones on the severe decline, as you put it.

And in the other thread I already covered how willis and bowman do things that other ilbs don't - so dismissing their impact is ignorant.

Justin Smith, Carlos Rogers are the two key on-the-decline members.

Everyone else is either an average starter or a scrub, talent-wise.


And ILBs are basically a product of their DLine. Did you WATCH THE LAST FEW GAMES OF THE 2012 REGULAR SEASON AND THE PLAYOFFS?

Bowman and Willis were playing on a high level but it DIDN'T MATTER. The DLine was bad so the team gave up tons of yards and points regardless of Willis / Bowman.

Denver Bronco56 04-03-2013 03:06 PM

Of course the MLBs are somewhat dependant on the Dline, just like a good QB is still dependant on his recievers to actually catch his passes.

you take Ray lewis off the Ravens in the 2000's they are not nearly as dominate. You take Willis or Bowman off the 49ers and you see the same thing.

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-03-2013 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ness (Post 3319888)
Ahmad Brooks is an average 3-4 OLB. Goodnight ladies and gentlemen.

Because when we talk about the best 3-4 OLBs in the NFL right now, one of the first names that comes to mind is "Ahmad Brooks".

FlyingElvis 04-03-2013 03:12 PM

There aren't that many defensive units with more talent to overtake the 49ers. They will be top 10 again - especially since they will be able to completely restock their depth and future replacements with all the picks they have this year.

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-03-2013 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingElvis (Post 3319953)
There aren't that many defensive units with more talent to overtake the 49ers. They will be top 10 again - especially since they will be able to completely restock their depth and future replacements with all the picks they have this year.

Where's all the "talent" on the 49ers defense?

Seriously. Wilis and Bowman are great. Justin Smith is great but older and injured. Aldon Smith is great with Justin Smith bnut doesn't look like a great one-on-one block beater.

That's about it in terms of above-average talent.

Denver Bronco56 04-03-2013 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen (Post 3319956)
Where's all the "talent" on the 49ers defense?

Seriously. Wilis and Bowman are great. Justin Smith is great but older and injured. Aldon Smith is great with Justin Smith bnut doesn't look like a great one-on-one block beater.

That's about it in terms of above-average talent.

Most teams are not going to have more that 4-5 REALLY GOOD players... if you want a stacked team with 11 elite players go throw Madden in


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