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-   -   Dominance Rating and the 323 greatest passers in the Super Bowl era. (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=56994)

Brothgar 07-17-2013 05:37 AM

Dominance Rating and the 231 greatest passers in the Super Bowl era.
 
With this my 9,999th post on this great forum Iíve decided to do something large. Very large. Iíve decided to attempt to create a stat that would allow people to properly compare players at the same position over a large period of time. Roger Staubach vs Steve Young, Peyton Manning vs Dan Marino. There are several problems that are encountered when attempting this with raw data or raw stats namely the major differences in rules, training, etc. between the two eras of football. So to remedy this we have to make the comparison between players that are under the same conditions namely, the other QBs of their era. But, if I am comparing a QB to the players to other QBs playing at the same time how do I make the jump to another generation without encountering the same problems? Enter the dominance rating (DR). The Dominance Rating (or so Iíve code named it until I can come up with another, better, name) starts with a few assumptions.

1. Average QB is average - Regardless of if it is 1974 or 2007 a QB who has the average number of yards, TDs, comp%, and INTs is average for that season.

2. Its better for the team if a player sucks hard for one season and then leaves as oppose to kinda sucking for 5 years.

3. All average is created equal.

When we establish the fact that an average QB is average regardless of the era it gives a baseline for comparison. How much better than average has Roger Staubach been for his career? ok now how much better than average has Steve Young been during his career. Great now we have our answer. ďBut, Broth, how do we quantify exactly how much better than average one QB is than another?Ē you may ask well let me tell you.

First, we must start by determining exactly what stats we want to use. I decided to use the statistics that I find most important.

comp% - Accuracy is very important for a QB. If you arenít completing passes you arenít winning games.

yds/G - I had to go with yds/G as oppose to pure yards because of the fact that prior to 1978 the NFL had a 14 game season and if I wanted to go further back there was a point where the NFL had a 12 game season as well. It also prevents players from being overly penalized for injuries.

TD/G - You obviously want your QB to score and the per game part is already explained.

INT/G - Picks are actually a negative statistic thus point values are calculated differently. But obviously turning the ball over in football is a bad thing.

Taking these statistics I compiled a list of every starter for that season (starter = player who started in half or more of the games in a given season.) I took these four statistics and found an average for each then generated a score for each stat for each starter.
score = (stat/avg)-1

This means that an average score is zero a below average score is negative and an above average score is positive which works out rather well when we find a total career DR.

For interceptions the formula for the score had to be changed.

scoreINT/G = [-(INT/G)/avg]+1

Even with this change average score = 0.

A dominance rating for the season would be...

DR(season)= scoreINT + scoreYPG + scoreTDPG + scoreCP

then to find the DR for a players career it would just be the summation of the DR of every season that you were the starter for half or more of the season. If you werenít the starter for that amount of games then your DR for that season is zero.

Now for the moment you have been waiting for the top 323 greatest passers since the merger.

List with those with 1 season (except last year's rookies) were eliminated.

1-231



Average
0.002356492385788

OK so to get past some of the obvious complaints.

Q. ZOMGZ (insert player x here) is way too low!

A. John Elway? Yes way too low I think the 90ís QBs get hurt a lot by playing with Dan Marino but that also in a way validates the score because that shows how dominant Mario was in that era.

A2. You also have to keep in mind that many of the players that are currently playing are going to likely see their number increase over time. Basically the scores are if their career ended at this very instant this is where they would be.

A3. Also keep in mind that the data set only includes stats from 1970 - 2012 so guys like Johnny Unitas likely only played one season.

Q. Why are there so many more below average players than above average ones?
A. Outside of the fact that below average QBs donít last as long as good ones the really good QBs also bust the curve.

Q. The formatting sucks on that list.
A. Blame google sheets.

Q. But playoffs, super bowls and winz!
A. Playoffs and super bowl victories are not taken into account as they are team stats.

Ness 07-17-2013 06:19 AM

Did you take rushing yards into account?

jrdrylie 07-17-2013 08:24 AM

Not sure I completely understand the rating system, but nice work on this. Also Shaun Hill > Alex Smith.

Razor 07-17-2013 08:55 AM

What I like most is Jimmy Clausen > Archie Manning and Ryan Leaf > Trent Dilfer.

Good work.

Denver Bronco56 07-17-2013 09:00 AM

So just to make sure this actually doesnt take into account mobility and rushing TDs etc... or SB appearances etc. or team record.


So someone along the lines of Stafford would look much better then say Big Ben?

Trogdor 07-17-2013 09:18 AM

He did say "passers" not Quarterbacks. He essentially did an advanced statistical analysis of passers across eras.

Good stuff Broth. +rep

Should look to incorporate more advanced stats into it though. ANY/A etc...

SunTzu_22 07-17-2013 09:24 AM

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl, your rating system is invalid. :coolface:
Seriously though, nice work.

Denver Bronco56 07-17-2013 10:02 AM

You're right I did assume Quarterback instead of just passers. And I agree this is great work, indepth and makes for interesting comparisons.

Brothgar 07-17-2013 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ness (Post 3404485)
Did you take rushing yards into account?

No. I didn't take rushing stats into account although that might be the next step but finding a total yards, TDs, etc stats more difficult.

J-Mike88 07-17-2013 11:17 AM

Good work.
Good to see Dan Fouts up there.
Surprised he was below Kenny Anderson though.

Nice to see Neil Lomax.

Surprised to see Brad Johnson that high.

badgerbacker 07-17-2013 11:32 AM

I'm guessing if you divided the dominance rating by the number of seasons played we could statistically show what most of us already assume, which is that Aaron Rodgers is the most dominating QB of all time? ;)

Brothgar 07-17-2013 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Denver Bronco56 (Post 3404514)
So just to make sure this actually doesnt take into account mobility and rushing TDs etc... or SB appearances etc. or team record.


So someone along the lines of Stafford would look much better then say Big Ben?

For the first question yes no rushing stats or what I call "team accomplishments" are taken into account. Although rushing stats may be added in a future installment of the stat but for most QBs this will be irrelevant.

Actually as the system stands Stafford is significantly worse than Ben. For example in 2012

Ben = 0.839299992135949
Stafford = -0.028953530213051

But in 2011

Stafford = 1.1359909612476
Ben = 0.196903421012052

Brothgar 07-17-2013 11:55 AM

It also surprised me how statistically average John Elway was.

Denver Bronco56 07-17-2013 11:58 AM

Elway had to deal with Dan Reeves most of his career and that hindered him, But Elway was still able to take JV high school teams to 3 SBs. Once Shanahan came around Elway was getting older but it was a perfect match.

mqtirishfan 07-17-2013 12:20 PM

Seneca Wallace is a top 100 QB according to this system. Seneca. Wallace.

ChiFan24 07-17-2013 12:25 PM

This is really well done, but some of the outliers are hilarious. Billy Volek #77 all time. lol.

Ness 07-17-2013 12:32 PM

Chris Miller is on this list. Above the likes of Steve McNair and Eli Manning. Chris Miller people.

mightytitan9 07-17-2013 12:45 PM

Woohoo Jake Locker 187!

Monomach 07-17-2013 10:31 PM

Y U NO ELIMINATE SMALL SAMPLE SIZE?!

You did all of that work and small sample sizes render the list...well...dumb. Billy Volek top 100 passer of the modern era, etc.

robert pancake gallery 07-17-2013 11:01 PM

>29
>Jeff Garcia
>CLE


:suicide:

Brothgar 07-17-2013 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monomach (Post 3404996)
Y U NO ELIMINATE SMALL SAMPLE SIZE?!

You did all of that work and small sample sizes render the list...well...dumb. Billy Volek top 100 passer of the modern era, etc.

Its easy enough to do I still have all the raw data its just stubbornness that I felt I needed to stick to my original rules regardless of where it went. I think within a few days I can eliminate small sample size.

Brothgar 07-19-2013 10:02 PM

UPDATE: All players with one scoreable season have been eliminated. (with the exception of the rookies from last year.

fatso 07-19-2013 10:13 PM

Kerry Collins sandwiched between Jamarcus and Bob Lee at 186 really surprised me. For some reason I thought this list was going to overrate him.

103-109 is a talent laden little pocket.

Great work

XxXdragonXxX 07-20-2013 08:40 AM

Tim Tebow is #126...he's about 1000 spots to high.

keylime_5 07-20-2013 10:44 AM

Yeah, I think this kinda has a problem: They changed the rules, it's way easier to stockpile passing yards and touchdowns nowadays than it was in the 70s or 80s or 90s. But definitely cool, good work.


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