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-   -   Draft bust percentage (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=7831)

Belish 04-25-2007 03:22 PM

Draft bust percentage
 
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...erbacks/070425

ESPN's Page 2 did a bit of research to determine what are the safest 1st-round picks in the draft using the draft classes from 1989 - 2003. Turns out the lowest-risk positions to draft are safeties (only 11% busts) and linebackers (16%) with QBs bringing up the rear (53%).

The QBs thing doesn't surprise me, considering all the high-profile busts we always see. I was surprised that is was more than half, because you'd think that with all the scouting teams do they'd be successful most of the time, especially with a position as important as the QB.

Moses 04-25-2007 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belish (Post 342199)
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...erbacks/070425

ESPN's Page 2 did a bit of research to determine what are the safest 1st-round picks in the draft using the draft classes from 1989 - 2003. Turns out the lowest-risk positions to draft are safeties (only 11% busts) and linebackers (16%) with QBs bringing up the rear (53%).

The QBs thing doesn't surprise me, considering all the high-profile busts we always see. I was surprised that is was more than half, because you'd think that with all the scouting teams do they'd be successful most of the time, especially with a position as important as the QB.

Considering there are only 32 starting quarterbacks in the league, it's easy to see why they would statistically bust the most often. Every other position (except Center I guess) goes at LEAST 2 deep before you're considered a bust.

art vandelay 04-25-2007 03:29 PM

I wouldn't call Kyle Boller a bust yet.

Tampatwo434 04-25-2007 03:40 PM

It doesnt suprise me that Safety and Linebacker are the lowest because of the fluidity of those positions. A guy like Michael Huff has 4 positions on defense and a guy like Shawn Merrimen has 5 positions while a player like Peyton Manning has only one. The second and third chances offered by other positions and a change of scenery has salvaged many careers at these positions (ex. Bryan Thomas)

eacantdraft 04-25-2007 04:17 PM

QB's need more talent around them then other player. Plus teams may overrate them.

Since 2003 there have been very few busts. Only Boller and Leftwich could be considered disappointments.

DraftMasterG 04-25-2007 04:24 PM

brady quinn draft bust percentage 100%

MaxV 04-25-2007 04:25 PM

You can make a case for DTs or OLs, but I still believe that QB is BY FAR the hardest position to scout.

It's the biggest learning curve.

princefielder28 04-25-2007 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DraftMasterG (Post 342602)
brady quinn draft bust percentage 100%

Ok??? He's more a guarantee than Russell but Russell has a higher ceiling

Caddy 04-25-2007 04:31 PM

Interesting read and to a certain degree makes a lot of sense.

Jughead10 04-25-2007 04:37 PM

I would put DTs at #2 for high bust potential.

bsaza2358 04-25-2007 04:42 PM

All I really have to say about this is the past is no guarantee of the future here. This is not something like an economic trend. These are individual scouting reports and selections. Just because QB's bust a lot, it's not going to drive down the value of the top prospects. In fact, the heavy bust rate contributes to need, which, in turn, requires that more QB's be taken. It's a cycle.

Jughead10 04-25-2007 04:47 PM

Safeties are not a high priority position. Thus not many get taken in the first round. Only the really truly special ones get taken in the first round. Which in my opinion lowers the bust potential. However they considered Derrick Gibson not a bust from the 2001 draft. I don't know about that. As well as Shaun Williams. Both are decent role players but never lived up to their draft status.

scottyboy 04-25-2007 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jughead10 (Post 342672)
I would put DTs at #2 for high bust potential.

well, that fat and lazy ones named willly joseph at least

Stash 04-25-2007 07:17 PM

Can't say I agree with some of the picks for QB busts. Jeff George and Vick not busts, but Carr and Boller are?

dhoe20 04-25-2007 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stash (Post 343435)
Can't say I agree with some of the picks for QB busts. Jeff George and Vick not busts, but Carr and Boller are?

...Vick is not a bust. Give Carr and Boller time, but Vick is not a bust by no means. I think we'll be able to see some good from Carr if he takes the starting job from Jake.

skinzzfan25 04-25-2007 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by art vandelay (Post 342247)
I wouldn't call Kyle Boller a bust yet.


What has he done to warrant not being a bust?

The bust outweighs the not bust factors lol.

boisefan 04-25-2007 08:02 PM

I agree with most of it, but definitly not ALL of it, overall it's still very interesting to look at.

BPhilb 04-25-2007 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skinzzfan25 (Post 343648)
What has he done to warrant not being a bust?

The bust outweighs the not bust factors lol.

I consider taking a team to the conference championship as a qualifier to being a legit player. Not every QB can win a super bowl.

Iamcanadian 04-26-2007 10:49 AM

Going back to 1989 is very misleading. College football has changed dramatically and in the current game, QB's are throwing the ball in passing attacks by major colleges a heck of a lot more than they did in the 90's. That is making it a lot easier for scouts, GM's and HC's to draft QB's. In fact since the 2000's, QB has one of the lowest bust ratios by position. It is far easier today to watch film on a QB like Russell and Quinn than it was in the 90's when college football by major colleges was all about running the football.

22,895 04-26-2007 02:28 PM

It depends what ESPN calls a "bust."

DonWoods33 04-26-2007 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iamcanadian (Post 345566)
Going back to 1989 is very misleading. College football has changed dramatically and in the current game, QB's are throwing the ball in passing attacks by major colleges a heck of a lot more than they did in the 90's. That is making it a lot easier for scouts, GM's and HC's to draft QB's. In fact since the 2000's, QB has one of the lowest bust ratios by position. It is far easier today to watch film on a QB like Russell and Quinn than it was in the 90's when college football by major colleges was all about running the football.

I don't know how you could say that. Of the nine 1st Rd. QB's drafted since 2000, 4 of them have to be considered busts after having 4 seasons in the league. Two of the others Leftwich and Grossman are on the bubble, although in Grossman's and as well as Vicks case, there is something to be said to being a team deep into the playoffs. The only real star of the group is Palmer, although some people would consider Vick one, Pennington is average, mainly because of injuries.

sodar21 04-26-2007 02:40 PM

Don't think Ryan Pickett is a bust.

Non_Sequitur 04-26-2007 03:07 PM

A big part of it is position scarcity. If a team needs a QB, but the best on the board is a guy who peobably shouldn't be a 1st round talent, they'll take him anyway because they need him. The same isn't true for Safeties.

sodar21 04-26-2007 04:39 PM

Interesting read overall. It would be nice if he somehow took into account players with injury problems. I really don't consider them busts. Some positions are just susceptible to injury (like RB) and its not necessarily the player's fault.

reinar 04-27-2007 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dhoe20 (Post 343445)
...Vick is not a bust. Give Carr and Boller time, but Vick is not a bust by no means. I think we'll be able to see some good from Carr if he takes the starting job from Jake.

well last year his team went 7-9, they were last in passing yards, but oh yea, he was a great rusher. how many coaches has he gone through, and what has he done NOT to be a bust.

If my team was last in passing yards, and had a losing season, i would consider the QB a bust. unless it was his 1st/2nd year starter perhaps.

vick = bust as a QB, great as a wideout or running back.


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