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Old 01-12-2012, 11:44 AM    (permalink
stl705
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Default Luck or Griffin a Bust?

Right now, NFL draft fans have had a remarkable 2-year run on QBs this year and last year.

It's looking like there could be more than 4 franchise QBs in last year's draft, plus at least another 2 more this year with the "can't miss" prospects of Luck and Griffin. (Along with a few other decent prospects).

Obviously Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are already looking like they have a great future ahead of them, with good play in limited time from Christian Ponder and Jake Locker.

My point is that are we entering a short era of good QBs with very few busts? I'm willing to consider Gabbert a bust already, although he certainly has plenty of time to prove me wrong.

History of the draft has around half (1/3 at the very least) of 1st round QBs as busts or less than average. Last years class surprised me and a lot of people, as I don't think many fans thought it was such a great class. This class is considered by some to be one of the best classes of the decade, but it will surely be near impossible to match last years.

So, I'm wondering if either Luck or Griffin ends up being a bust? Personally, I don't think they will, as do almost everyone else. Luck would have been the best prospect last year, and Griffin would be right behind or tied with Cam Newton imo. Add Barkley and Wilson (a bit lower) next year and you've got a great run of QB prospects now.

I think it's possible both top QBs work out as there really hasn't been too many great QBs before last year (jury still out on Bradford and Freeman, and I think Sanchez is near his end this year or next with the Jets).

Sorry for the long rant, but here's my question... What are the chances one of these top two QBs bust? Both Griffin and Luck aren't showing the laziness of JaMarcus Russel, or the lack of ability like a Brady Quinn, but hindsight obviously trumps guessing games. The prospects are better prospects than Bradford, Freeman, or Sanchez ever were, so is it just an amazing run on QBs? Or will Luck fool us all and become the next Ryan Leaf?

PS: I know a lot of people like this draft class over most, if not all of the past decade; but I see it being too top heavy. I'm not sold on any QBs past Griffin and don't see any of the 2nd-3rd teir being quality starting QBs, except maybe Foles of Arizona.

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Old 01-12-2012, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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Andrew Luck won't bust. Aside from the athletic types, he's the best college quarterback I have ever seen.

RG3, I have some questions about... But I'm fairly confident that if a team works around him, rather than trying to change him.. He'll have a lot of success.
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Old 01-12-2012, 12:23 PM    (permalink
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i think RG3s success is going to be determined by where he goes....cleveland could be the kiss of death to his career
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"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

The hell he won't, lol.
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Old 01-12-2012, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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i think RG3s success is going to be determined by where he goes....cleveland could be the kiss of death to his career
Based on what?

We have the best left tackle in the game, a good center/left guard, a good running back if we keep Hillis, another first round pick to draft one of the many wide receivers, a huge free agency class to bring some more talent in, one of the best pass defenses in the league.

Cleveland could be a 7 or 8 win team next year, QB was our biggest weakness and Heckertt already said he plans on loading this team up with playmakers this offseason... Not to mention we have the cap to do it.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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Based on what?

We have the best left tackle in the game, a good center/left guard, a good running back if we keep Hillis, another first round pick to draft one of the many wide receivers, a huge free agency class to bring some more talent in, one of the best pass defenses in the league.

Cleveland could be a 7 or 8 win team next year, QB was our biggest weakness and Heckertt already said he plans on loading this team up with playmakers this offseason... Not to mention we have the cap to do it.
based on history i suppose...not saying he cant be good there, they have some good pieces but i havent seen a QB do well in cleveland since....ever
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Old 01-12-2012, 12:29 PM    (permalink
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Luck could be a "bust" just because of the preposterous hype behind him. If he ends up more Matt Ryan than Peyton Manning, the Colts will be kicking themselves for not taking the mother load of picks.

Griffin could easily be a bust just because he's going to have to transition to an NFL style offense.

I don't think either will, just saying that it's very possible with any prospect, even the safe ones.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:07 PM    (permalink
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Luck could be a "bust" just because of the preposterous hype behind him. If he ends up more Matt Ryan than Peyton Manning, the Colts will be kicking themselves for not taking the mother load of picks.

Griffin could easily be a bust just because he's going to have to transition to an NFL style offense.

I don't think either will, just saying that it's very possible with any prospect, even the safe ones.
Cam Newton showed that the transition thing is overblown. I think the team needs to transition to Griffin if they want him to be a franchise QB for them. Even still, I think Griffin can be a legit no-gimmick, WCO QB in a couple years.
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Old 01-12-2012, 01:10 PM    (permalink
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Luck can't be a bust. He was sent down from the heavens to play football and dominate. Andrew Luck is the Spartacus of Football.
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Old 01-12-2012, 02:09 PM    (permalink
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If a team is careful with Griffin and treats him a bit like the Panthers have with Newton i think he will be a star. If hes forced the make tons of reads and play in a pro style offense right away he could end up a bust.

Luck could bust if he doesnt live up to the hype but i dont see how he wont be a starting QB for a long time. Even if hes not Peyton Manning 2.0
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Old 01-12-2012, 02:54 PM    (permalink
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QB's aren't busting because it's so freakin easy to play qb in the NFL right now. You can't hit em. Some refs don't let you breathe on them. Can't touch their receivers. Yet, those 6'4" 220lb receivers are allowed to push off routinely and were suction cups as gloves. Do I sound like a frustrated defensive guy?
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Old 01-12-2012, 02:59 PM    (permalink
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QB's aren't busting because it's so freakin easy to play qb in the NFL right now. You can't hit em. Some refs don't let you breathe on them. Can't touch their receivers. Yet, those 6'4" 220lb receivers are allowed to push off routinely and were suction cups as gloves. Do I sound like a frustrated defensive guy?
Blaine Gabbert..
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Old 01-12-2012, 03:13 PM    (permalink
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Blaine Gabbert..
Ha! There is an exception to every rule. Give him time though. Maybe he's one of those old school qb's who sucked their rookie year.
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Old 01-12-2012, 03:27 PM    (permalink
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Ha! There is an exception to every rule. Give him time though. Maybe he's one of those old school qb's who sucked their rookie year.
I wouldn't count on it haha
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Old 01-12-2012, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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Blaine Gabbert..
Gabbert's biggest weakness is he is scared of being hit. You watch him and if there is even the slightest chance that the pocket could possibly get clogged within the next five seconds, he pisses himself and curls up into the fetal position. The funny thing is, he shouldn't be afraid of being hit because defenders aren't allowed to hit QBs.
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Old 01-12-2012, 03:02 PM    (permalink
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QB's aren't busting because it's so freakin easy to play qb in the NFL right now. You can't hit em. Some refs don't let you breathe on them. Can't touch their receivers. Yet, those 6'4" 220lb receivers are allowed to push off routinely and were suction cups as gloves. Do I sound like a frustrated defensive guy?
You're right that in the new NFL young QB's aren't crashing and burning like they used to. However the bar has been raised and the expectations for QB's are higher than ever as they should be.
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Old 01-12-2012, 03:39 PM    (permalink
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If a team is careful with Griffin and treats him a bit like the Panthers have with Newton i think he will be a star. If hes forced the make tons of reads and play in a pro style offense right away he could end up a bust.

Luck could bust if he doesnt live up to the hype but i dont see how he wont be a starting QB for a long time. Even if hes not Peyton Manning 2.0
I think on the low end Luck will be a Matt Ryan type. I'd reserve the bust label for guys like David Carr, Joey Harrinton and Akile Smith.
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Old 01-12-2012, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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I think on the low end Luck will be a Matt Ryan type. I'd reserve the bust label for guys like David Carr, Joey Harrinton and Akile Smith.
But if you think you're getting Peyton Manning but instead you get Matt Ryan it has to go down as a horrible pick!
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Old 01-12-2012, 03:13 PM    (permalink
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If Luck busts and i mean completely and totally busts (meaning he is out of the league in three years, barring injury)....then It proves that this whole scouting thing is a complete and utter crap shoot. That mere mortals shouldn't even attempt to analyze on any rational level.
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Old 01-12-2012, 04:24 PM    (permalink
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I dont think either would bust. Luck will have a Matt Ryan esque type of first few years in the league, which is solid, but people will scrutinize him to death and wonder why he hasnt won a SB yet.

Griffins will be a guy who I think will put up great stats, but the team he will play for will suck and he wont have a good winning record.
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Old 01-12-2012, 04:34 PM    (permalink
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Griffins will be a guy who I think will put up great stats, but the team he will play for will suck and he wont have a good winning record.
You're just saying that because the same thing has happened with Cam Newton. Just cus they are both black athletic quarterbacks it dont mean their careers will take the same path.
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Old 01-12-2012, 04:27 PM    (permalink
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Hiesman trophy winners are proven to bust. But Tebow looking like he is going to break it. Only reason I didn't want Griffin to win it.
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Old 01-12-2012, 06:30 PM    (permalink
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It all depends on how their new team plans to play them and what type of role they are given the first year on the team etc. If you give Griffin the starting job he may end up hurting his learning skill maybe not.It is hard to say really on Luck from being at Stanford and being Pro ready offense but Griffin was as well. Griffin is just a run style QB.If you let Griffin learn the offense for a full year or given a real tough off season both QB s could be in fun season of stats wise . IMO both will not having winning years their first season. Just because each team where they might end up have so holes.If Griffin lands in Seattle some how he may have a huge impact there all they need is a QB too. But again it all depends on how each player handles the learning curve and mental issues of a new offense and crappy teams.
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Old 01-13-2012, 10:16 AM    (permalink
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I don't know why people go on about sitting a QB for a season, it has become so rare that projecting it is a waste of time. The best a rookie QB taken in round 1 can expect, is to sit for 8 games before getting a starting call in game 9 unless you are stuck behind a solid NFL veteran starting QB.

Luck may have to sit if Peyton is healthy and the Colts retain him, otherwise he starts from day 1.

RG111 will very likely start from day 1 also. He is a very smat kid who will pick up the pro game pretty quickly. I see no way he isn't starting right away and being fairly successful out of the gate although no rookie QB produces a lot of wins unless he has a solid team behind him.
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Old 01-13-2012, 11:01 AM    (permalink
the_dark_knight
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I think what we're seeing right now isn't just that the defense is having to play soft, and the WRs are able to abuse the corners, I think more of what we're seeing is the natural evolution of the sport.

Yes, the rules are in place for offense to win, but doesn't mean that defenses can't shut them down, just ask San Fran. It's about all the best athletes are now coming to football. The popularity of the sport is immense, on an entirely new level than any sport has ever seen. So all the top athletes, all these guys who 20 years ago would have chosen to give being a pitcher or shortstop a shot have swapped to wanting to be the darling QB.

Very few of the best athletes in the US are growing up playing baseball or basketball, I mean heck, look at Lebron, he's a little tall for the NFL, but other than that he's built to play football. Many of the WRs in the NFL if they had dedicated their craft to the NBA would have been able to see success there as well. But Lebron is the exception, not the rule. So, I think we're just seeing that the top players at the position are being scouted and watched and coached up from such a young age that it's just a different era.

Elite athletes don't want to be Corners anymore, or RBs. They want to be the guy chuckin it and gettin all the ladies. Even guys as small as 5'10 have a role model at QB, despite the fact that the 'idea' is the 6'5" guy. No matter the shape or size you can play QB, so given the ruleset, and the fact that some incredible athletes are now dedicating themselves to this passing attack from such a young age, we're seeing the natural progression.

That being said, I think both of these guys will be capable of being big time in the NFL. I think Luck falls short on arm strength and it keeps him out of the 'elite' category at the next level, but he's going to be a guy in the Matt Ryan mold where he's on the doorstep, but I think the difference there is Matt Ryan has the tools to kick the door in in the not so distant future, where as Luck is going to be on the outside looking in, although I expect MASSIVE jersey sales for the guy. I mean his name is Luck, who wouldn't want that jersey, it's perfect. Luck + Indy's Horseshoe logo, I mean you can't make this stuff up.

When it comes to RGIII I think we're seeing Cam Newton 2.0. I think Cam is good, but I think RGIII will surpass him, maybe not in stats, but I think he's going to come in, and win games from the start. I also think that he's going to be a far superior player in a few years. Cam relies on his athletic ability and size, where as RGIII has the mind for the game to go with that. I think that's what's going to set him apart, and I think that's what's going to make him a massive star in the NFL.
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Old 01-13-2012, 11:23 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the_dark_knight View Post
I think what we're seeing right now isn't just that the defense is having to play soft, and the WRs are able to abuse the corners, I think more of what we're seeing is the natural evolution of the sport.

Yes, the rules are in place for offense to win, but doesn't mean that defenses can't shut them down, just ask San Fran. It's about all the best athletes are now coming to football. The popularity of the sport is immense, on an entirely new level than any sport has ever seen. So all the top athletes, all these guys who 20 years ago would have chosen to give being a pitcher or shortstop a shot have swapped to wanting to be the darling QB.

Very few of the best athletes in the US are growing up playing baseball or basketball, I mean heck, look at Lebron, he's a little tall for the NFL, but other than that he's built to play football. Many of the WRs in the NFL if they had dedicated their craft to the NBA would have been able to see success there as well. But Lebron is the exception, not the rule. So, I think we're just seeing that the top players at the position are being scouted and watched and coached up from such a young age that it's just a different era.

Elite athletes don't want to be Corners anymore, or RBs. They want to be the guy chuckin it and gettin all the ladies. Even guys as small as 5'10 have a role model at QB, despite the fact that the 'idea' is the 6'5" guy. No matter the shape or size you can play QB, so given the ruleset, and the fact that some incredible athletes are now dedicating themselves to this passing attack from such a young age, we're seeing the natural progression.

That being said, I think both of these guys will be capable of being big time in the NFL. I think Luck falls short on arm strength and it keeps him out of the 'elite' category at the next level, but he's going to be a guy in the Matt Ryan mold where he's on the doorstep, but I think the difference there is Matt Ryan has the tools to kick the door in in the not so distant future, where as Luck is going to be on the outside looking in, although I expect MASSIVE jersey sales for the guy. I mean his name is Luck, who wouldn't want that jersey, it's perfect. Luck + Indy's Horseshoe logo, I mean you can't make this stuff up.

When it comes to RGIII I think we're seeing Cam Newton 2.0. I think Cam is good, but I think RGIII will surpass him, maybe not in stats, but I think he's going to come in, and win games from the start. I also think that he's going to be a far superior player in a few years. Cam relies on his athletic ability and size, where as RGIII has the mind for the game to go with that. I think that's what's going to set him apart, and I think that's what's going to make him a massive star in the NFL.
While I agree to a lot of what you have to say, I think the new CBA will have a tremendous affect of which athletes choose football. The rookie salary cap is going to drive elite athletes out of the sport and into Baseball and Basketball. With the difference in pay and the injury factor, you could see a real dropoff in athletes who chose football at every level.
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