Weeden in 1st Round?

[onejayhawk]

For what it may be worth, TSN has him going 22 to the Browns.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/stor...&sct=hp_t12_a9

I have been saying since the Senior Bowl that Weeden would go top 50. I am now inclined to think that is a round late: Cleveland at #22 or some other team trading back or up to the #18-#21 range. I would not put it past the Eagles to take him at #15.

Seriously, figuring on his value from 2012-2015, where does he rank? If Tannehill is low 20s, Weeden has to be in the teens. Since he plays THE premium position, that is enough.

J

[Rosebud]

I'd much rather spend a top ten pick on Tannehill than a second rounder on Weeden. *shrug*

[FUNBUNCHER]

Is Weeden that good???
What pro does he remind people of?? I see a guy who maybe is Schaub level if he ever develops.
Doesn't excite me to be honest.

[holt_bruce81]

Honestly I don't think I'd touch him till the 3rd round.

[RaiderNation]

I honestly just don't see any QB other than the top 3 going in the 1st, Weeden, Cousins and Osweiler all have a chance to got in the 2nd/3rd.

Here's my best fits for the QB's after Luck, RG3, and Tannehill

Weeden- Chiefs
Cousins- Browns
Osweiler- Broncos
Foles- Seattle
Wilson- Eagles

[niel89]

I personally like Weeden more than most and I would take him in the 3rd maybe if I needed a QB and wanted someone who could step in soon, but round 1 is a joke. His age is a major handicap that you can't look past. I know teams are QB needy but he isn't worth a 1st rounder, especially a pick in the teens.

I completely disagree with this myth that if he was younger that he would be an instant top 10 pick. Good size and a good arm but I don't see anything special about him or his game. His production is good but that offense will do that. Maybe he would be a mid to late 1st rounder if he was younger. but I'm still not sure of that.

I also question the credibility of that mock. Alameda Ta'amu at 11 is early and some other pick just don't seem right.

[stlouisfan37]

I'm not sure I agree with the concerns everyone has for Weeden and his age. While it is something to consider that he won't be around as long, when it comes to quarterbacks you generally figure out what they are made of by their 3rd or 4th season. Alex Smith is really a late bloomer to start being productive in his 6th year. So if Weeden has what it takes, he could be a solid starter by the time he is 31 or 32 and then have 4-6 solid years. An 8 year career isn't bad. There are a lot of 22 year old QB's that never see 30 in this league.

[niel89]

Originally Posted by stlouisfan37

I'm not sure I agree with the concerns everyone has for Weeden and his age. While it is something to consider that he won't be around as long, when it comes to quarterbacks you generally figure out what they are made of by their 3rd or 4th season. Alex Smith is really a late bloomer to start being productive in his 6th year. So if Weeden has what it takes, he could be a solid starter by the time he is 31 or 32 and then have 4-6 solid years. An 8 year career isn't bad. There are a lot of 22 year old QB's that never see 30 in this league.

4-6 years isn't a big window to win a super bowl even if he pans out. If Roethlisberger or Rivers followed that same 8 year career plan then they would both be retiring now instead of making their teams contenders for the next 5-6 years. 8 years is a short time to have a real franchise QB, especially when only 4-6 of those years are actually usable.

[BuffaloBillsFan]

Originally Posted by niel89

4-6 years isn't a big window to win a super bowl even if he pans out. If Roethlisberger or Rivers followed that same 8 year career plan then they would both be retiring now instead of making their teams contenders for the next 5-6 years. 8 years is a short time to have a real franchise QB, especially when only 4-6 of those years are actually usable.

Yeah, but QBs typically retire at 34-35 years old only because they've been hit so many times that they don't want to risk screwing up their body permanently, look at Peyton Manning, he has maybe 2 more seasons tops... I guess my point is, Weeden hasn't been through the same wear and tear, yes, he is older, but his arm should be fresh well into his late 40s if he takes good care of it, alot of good pitchers have lasted in baseball into their late 40s and in some cases early 50s with Randy Johnson, etc "The Big Unit" so I see no reason why Weeden should be knocked back due to his age. Yes, it's a red flag initially, but after you think about it, it's really not that huge of a deal to me.

[duesouth]

If you think Weeden can step in and start from day one - then why not - he still has a decent length career ahead of him.

However, if you think he needs work (which he does for me), then you are looking at a 30 year old kid making his first start. Matt Moore in Miami is a better option because he already has starting experience. But in terms of a developmental option I would look to a kid like Ryan Lindley ahead of Weeden.

[Sloopy]

Originally Posted by BuffaloBillsFan

Yeah, but QBs typically retire at 34-35 years old only because they've been hit so many times that they don't want to risk screwing up their body permanently, look at Peyton Manning, he has maybe 2 more seasons tops... I guess my point is, Weeden hasn't been through the same wear and tear, yes, he is older, but his arm should be fresh well into his late 40s if he takes good care of it, alot of good pitchers have lasted in baseball into their late 40s and in some cases early 50s with Randy Johnson, etc "The Big Unit" so I see no reason why Weeden should be knocked back due to his age. Yes, it's a red flag initially, but after you think about it, it's really not that huge of a deal to me.

Weeden's arm has been through the wear and tear of baseball where he was injury prone. Shoulder injuries caused him to not be able to continue pitching i.e. no, he wouldn't have been able to go until he was 40 in that league... so yea, I'm a bit concerned about his arm and his ability to stay healthy.

Also, I'm not so sure a young Weeden without injury history would be in my 1st round anyway.

End of the day, you can't waist time and resources on a guy who you KNOW has a 6 year career at best in this league. That is IF he pans out immediately and starts from day one without a single injury in his career, the reality is that you may in fact only get 3-4 seasons without injury and the likelihood of injury could make it 2-3 years.

If I were a GM I just could not justify taking him anywhere near the first round and the Raiders aren't around to do it.

I'd be willing to take him in the fourth if I was the Seahawks, Dolphins, Chiefs etc. to push my incumbent starter for the job and possibly provide a solid back up.

[SolidGold]

Originally Posted by Sloopy

Weeden's arm has been through the wear and tear of baseball where he was injury prone. Shoulder injuries caused him to not be able to continue pitching i.e. no, he wouldn't have been able to go until he was 40 in that league... so yea, I'm a bit concerned about his arm and his ability to stay healthy.

Also, I'm not so sure a young Weeden without injury history would be in my 1st round anyway.

End of the day, you can't waist time and resources on a guy who you KNOW has a 6 year career at best in this league. That is IF he pans out immediately and starts from day one without a single injury in his career, the reality is that you may in fact only get 3-4 seasons without injury and the likelihood of injury in his could make it 2-3 years.

If I were a GM I just could not justify taking him anywhere near the first round and the Raiders aren't around to do it.

I'd be willing to take him in the fourth if I was the Seahawks, Dolphins, Chiefs etc. to push my incumbent starter for the job and possibly provide a solid back up.

Nice write up. I agree that he shouldn't be touched in the first. If a team took him in the third I wouldn't knock them for it but 4th round seems more logical. If Weeden was younger I would argue that he would be worth a late first round pick.

To be fair to the Raiders though I think McKenzie is a complete 180 from the old regime so even the Raiders would no longer be that stupid.

[eaglesalltheway]

Originally Posted by BuffaloBillsFan

Yeah, but QBs typically retire at 34-35 years old only because they've been hit so many times that they don't want to risk screwing up their body permanently, look at Peyton Manning, he has maybe 2 more seasons tops... I guess my point is, Weeden hasn't been through the same wear and tear, yes, he is older, but his arm should be fresh well into his late 40s if he takes good care of it, alot of good pitchers have lasted in baseball into their late 40s and in some cases early 50s with Randy Johnson, etc "The Big Unit" so I see no reason why Weeden should be knocked back due to his age. Yes, it's a red flag initially, but after you think about it, it's really not that huge of a deal to me.

So much wrong with this... Jamie Moyer just became the oldest pitcher to start/win a game, and he is only 49, Randy retired before 50, anything about any pitchers in their 50s is wrong. Saying his arm will be fresh well into his late 40s is not only a little presumptuous, but you are completely looking past the rest of his body. QBs don't just retire because their arms get tired, you even said it earlier in the post. His body is going to take a beating, just like any other QB, if he ever gets a true starting opportunity.

And lets not look past the fact that you are comparing baseball and football...

[WCH]

Originally Posted by stlouisfan37

Alex Smith is really a late bloomer to start being productive in his 6th year.

Fun fact of the day: Alex Smith has seven years of NFL experience, and he's younger than Brandon Weeden.

[Abaddon]

Just awful...

[njx9]

god i hope some idiot gm takes him in the first. that would be hilarious.

[Matthew Jones]

Weeden wouldn't be a first round pick if he were 22 years old. I wouldn't touch him in the second round either.

[njx9]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

Weeden wouldn't be a first round pick if he were 22 years old. I wouldn't touch him in the second round either.

totally agree. i have no idea where all the 'talent' suddenly supposedly came from. it's like the only argument made in his favor is that, because he's old, he's somehow more pro ready. because that's clearly how qb works in the nfl.

[onejayhawk]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

Weeden wouldn't be a first round pick if he were 22 years old. I wouldn't touch him in the second round either.

If his college career had a similar track, Weeden would have been a top 10 candidate in 2007. Jamarcus Russell was universally revered, or Weeden might have had a shot at first overall.

J

[Sloopy]

Originally Posted by onejayhawk

If his college career had a similar track, Weeden would have been a top 10 candidate in 2007. Jamarcus Russell was universally revered, or Weeden might have had a shot at first overall.

J

As much as I would like to think people would prefer almost anyone over Russell, it doesn't change the fact that many were enamored with Russell's arm; dude had a cannon.

Weeden possesses nothing special about him that would make him a #1 overall pick. He MAY have been a first rounder but I still doubt it.

[bitonti]

im not worried about the age, i am worried about the million or so baseball's he threw in the minor leagues. They say he can't throw a baseball painfree, even still. this is not a 28 year old with no mileage.

[A Perfect Score]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

Weeden wouldn't be a first round pick if he were 22 years old. I wouldn't touch him in the second round either.

Agreed. First round is absolutely ridiculous, I guess I could see late second for a really QB hungry team. I'd much rather roll the dice on Cousins or hell, even Osweiler. I have no idea where this myth comes from that Weeden is a very talented QB being knocked only for his age. That's so far from the truth.

Originally Posted by bitonti

im not worried about the age, i am worried about the million or so baseball's he threw in the minor leagues. They say he can't throw a baseball painfree, even still. this is not a 28 year old with no mileage.

That becomes more problematic when you look at his throwing motion and realize he throws the football like you'd throw a baseball. He just kind of pushes it, the mechanics are just...off in his throwing motion.

[eaglesalltheway]

Originally Posted by A Perfect Score

Agreed. First round is absolutely ridiculous, I guess I could see late second for a really QB hungry team. I'd much rather roll the dice on Cousins or hell, even Osweiler. I have no idea where this myth comes from that Weeden is a very talented QB being knocked only for his age. That's so far from the truth.



That becomes more problematic when you look at his throwing motion and realize he throws the football like you'd throw a baseball. He just kind of pushes it, the mechanics are just...off in his throwing motion.

APS, have you played baseball? Because if you're a pitcher (especially good enough to be drafted) you don't "push it" when you throw. His pushing motion when throwing a football is probably because throwing like a baseball (usually more over the top) causes him pain. That in itself would keep him off my board. He can't throw a football like he's supposed to because its hurts. But his pushing motion is not similar to how baseball pitchers should be throwing, its very different.

[WCH]

Originally Posted by eaglesalltheway

APS, have you played baseball? Because if you're a pitcher (especially good enough to be drafted) you don't "push it" when you throw. His pushing motion when throwing a football is probably because throwing like a baseball (usually more over the top) causes him pain. That in itself would keep him off my board. He can't throw a football like he's supposed to because its hurts. But his pushing motion is not similar to how baseball pitchers should be throwing, its very different.

This is a very insightful (and damning) post. I don't know much about baseball or medicine; but if what you're suggesting is the case, I wouldn't draft him at all.

What's the story on his arm? Didn't I read that he opted to not have surgery, and it supposedly "healed" over time?

This video compilation is from last year, but it pretty much screams "5th round pick" to me:



He has obvious flaws as a passer, and nothing I have ever seen has made me think that he's "Pro Ready". His passes often lack touch, he consistently struggles to hit the correct shoulder, and his deep passes float on him just enough to be a problem.

[onejayhawk]

Originally Posted by WCH

This is a very insightful (and damning) post. I don't know much about baseball or medicine; but if what you're suggesting is the case, I wouldn't draft him at all.

What's the story on his arm? Didn't I read that he opted to not have surgery, and it supposedly "healed" over time?

This video compilation is from last year, but it pretty much screams "5th round pick" to me:



He has obvious flaws as a passer, and nothing I have ever seen has made me think that he's "Pro Ready". His passes often lack touch, he consistently struggles to hit the correct shoulder, and his deep passes float on him just enough to be a problem.

You noticed that those were 2010 highlights I see. What flaws are you pointing out.

J