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Old 04-22-2012, 08:06 AM    (permalink
Asteinebach
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Default 2012 Draft Busts

I'm interested to see who you guys think will be this years class of busts. History has proven that in weaker classes, you inevitably get more busts. In stronger classes, you get significant busts. Here's my opinion:

Andrew Luck
Dontari Poe
Michael Floyd
Ryan Tannehill
Stephon Gilmore
Quinton Coples
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Old 04-22-2012, 08:26 AM    (permalink
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Significant draft busts? Hmm... I've been trying to see the best in most prospects lately and I hate to say that a guy is going to fall on his face before I see what situation he lands in but I'll give it a shot.

Busts:
RGIII
-Not a bust in the sense that he was completely worthless but a bust in the sense that he isn't what he is made out to be. IMO he's got skittish qualities as a pocket passer and he loses accuracy when he starts getting hit, he's Vick like in that aspect IMO but it was masked by Baylor's offense. And I think he takes too much unnecessary punishment which is especially concerning because of his injury history. He doesn't have the presence of Cam Newton nor is he as physically imposing; people saying they like RGIII because of what Newton did are about to get whipsawed. Plus he's not going to get much help in Washington and Shanny might be on a short leash if the ship doesn't right soon.

Matt Kalil:
Very overrated; I haven't liked him much at all throughout this entire process. Watching USC I just didn't see an elite left tackle. He played lazy and disinterested at times. He isn't really flexible and he's not the same sort of athlete Tyron Smith was. He's not as strong or as mean as Jake Long. Nor does he have the foot quickness of Joe Thomas. Just comparing him to other top OT prospects, he falls short IMO. I think people just hype him up because he "kept Smith at RT", played at a big school, tested well and has a recognizable name. I prefer Reiff and I think the Vikings would be making a mistake if they took Kalil.

Chandler Jones:
-I think the people that "love" Chandler Jones are doing it just to compensate for missing on JPP. I don't see what there is to love. He has long arms, cool.

Melvin Ingram:
-Ingram seemed to be an "in the right spot" player last year IMO. Personally I think Devin Taylor and Clowney are better prospects than Ingram and he benefited from playing next to them, especially Clowney. I don't think he's got the length or quickness to get to the corner and consistently beat NFL offensive tackles, he is at his best rushing the passer when he is playing against interior offensive linemen who can't match his quickness. I think he'd be best utilized in a 3-4 defense where the coordinator can get creative with him. I think he has a pretty good range of movement for such a big guy and he seems pretty coordinated when moving backwards. And being in a 3-4 where he's lined up a little wider gives him better angles to the QB and it adds a little bit of unpredictability. I think he could fit as a 3-4 ILB as well ala Bruschi and Adalius Thomas. I don't think he'll amount to much if you limit him to a 4-3 DE spot, because he'll be too easliy re-routed and directed by nfl offensive linemen. And just looking at the draft order, it looks like Ingram is going to go to a 4-3 team.

Those are my 4 right now. That list could grow depending of which players land where. I was thisclose to putting Mark Barron there and if he goes top 20, I'm adding him to this list no matter where he ends up.
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Old 04-22-2012, 09:46 AM    (permalink
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I hate to say that a guy is going to fall on his face before I see what situation he lands in
That is exactly the reason I put Andrew Luck on this list. Luck is a very good QB, the very same way that Tim Couch was a very good QB. Both were consensus #1 overall picks without dispute.

The situation is what I think condemns Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is not a team that's 1 QB away from going back to the Superbowl. For all intents and purposes, let's focus only on the offense. You have 1 WR in Reggie Wayne who is now past his prime. Then you have Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon that have both benefited greatly from having Peyton throwing balls to them. At tight end, they are currently listing Dallas Clarke as the 3rd TE on the team. They have no weapons there. Joseph Addai is shopping his options in free agency. They have no running game. Donald Brown really hasn't lived up to his 1st round hype. And last, but not least, the offensive line. Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem are aging veterans. Quinn Ojinnaka was signed away by St. Louis, and Jeff Linkenbach is their only remaining OT. They are in a very very bad way.

This is a no-win situation for Luck. And his career may be doomed just based on the talent around him being so bad.
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:48 PM    (permalink
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That is exactly the reason I put Andrew Luck on this list. Luck is a very good QB, the very same way that Tim Couch was a very good QB. Both were consensus #1 overall picks without dispute.

The situation is what I think condemns Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is not a team that's 1 QB away from going back to the Superbowl. For all intents and purposes, let's focus only on the offense. You have 1 WR in Reggie Wayne who is now past his prime. Then you have Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon that have both benefited greatly from having Peyton throwing balls to them. At tight end, they are currently listing Dallas Clarke as the 3rd TE on the team. They have no weapons there. Joseph Addai is shopping his options in free agency. They have no running game. Donald Brown really hasn't lived up to his 1st round hype. And last, but not least, the offensive line. Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem are aging veterans. Quinn Ojinnaka was signed away by St. Louis, and Jeff Linkenbach is their only remaining OT. They are in a very very bad way.

This is a no-win situation for Luck. And his career may be doomed just based on the talent around him being so bad.
So many mistakes here, Im not sure if you´re serious..
Pierre Garcon signed for big $$ with the Redskins. Dallas Clark was cut, and is currently a free agent. Jeff Saturday signed with the Packers. Ryan Diem retired. They drafted Anthony Castonzo and Ben Iljana for the OT spots in round 1 and 2 last year.
At least get your facts straight.

As far as the "Indy is not 1 QB away from going to a Super Bowl" statement, thats just extremely shortsighted. Show me one team in the history of the NFL who had the first pick in the draft who is just a QB away from going all the way...?
Luck may be in for a rough start in Indy, given how much the roster is in shambles atm, but it is way to early to predict that Irsay, Grigson and Pagano wont be able to supply Luck with sufficient weapons, so that he can have a succesfull career in the long run.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:04 PM    (permalink
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So many mistakes here, Im not sure if you´re serious..
Pierre Garcon signed for big $$ with the Redskins. Dallas Clark was cut, and is currently a free agent. Jeff Saturday signed with the Packers. Ryan Diem retired. They drafted Anthony Castonzo and Ben Iljana for the OT spots in round 1 and 2 last year.
At least get your facts straight.

As far as the "Indy is not 1 QB away from going to a Super Bowl" statement, thats just extremely shortsighted. Show me one team in the history of the NFL who had the first pick in the draft who is just a QB away from going all the way...?
Luck may be in for a rough start in Indy, given how much the roster is in shambles atm, but it is way to early to predict that Irsay, Grigson and Pagano wont be able to supply Luck with sufficient weapons, so that he can have a succesfull career in the long run.
All good points, no doubt. I'll admit, I went onto ESPN's website and looked up their roster this morning. I wasn't impressed. I don't think many would be, even with the differences you pointed out. The fact that they are without a TE and still have serious depth problems @ WR only make my point for me.

Let me say this: I'm not doubting Andrew Luck as a good QB prospect. He's the best one to come out in ages. But that same thing is what makes me leery about his future. He's being placed in such a precarious position, success is really unlikely.

There are a lot of teams that try to do that very thing. The Lions come to mind with Joey Harrington. Tim Couch and the Browns. Usually the results of which are mix and match. You can't guarantee that the guys you get to put around him are going to be worth a darn either. Sometimes it's more-less bad drafting or bad Luck that causes players to be busts.

We can go through the list of top QB prospects who fell victim to the same thing. But we all know the stories of Rick Mirer and David Klingler and so on and so forth.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:20 PM    (permalink
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That is exactly the reason I put Andrew Luck on this list. Luck is a very good QB, the very same way that Tim Couch was a very good QB. Both were consensus #1 overall picks without dispute.

The situation is what I think condemns Andrew Luck.
Indianapolis is not a team that's 1 QB away from going back to the Superbowl. For all intents and purposes, let's focus only on the offense. You have 1 WR in Reggie Wayne who is now past his prime. Then you have Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon that have both benefited greatly from having Peyton throwing balls to them. At tight end, they are currently listing Dallas Clarke as the 3rd TE on the team. They have no weapons there. Joseph Addai is shopping his options in free agency. They have no running game. Donald Brown really hasn't lived up to his 1st round hype. And last, but not least, the offensive line. Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem are aging veterans. Quinn Ojinnaka was signed away by St. Louis, and Jeff Linkenbach is their only remaining OT. They are in a very very bad way.

This is a no-win situation for Luck. And his career may be doomed just based on the talent around him being so bad.
Tim Couch was also the first D-1 QB to play in a Mike Leach offense. He fooled the crap out of everybody at the time, because he was the #1 recruit coming out of HS and he put up monster numbers. In hindsight, though, it's pretty obvious that he wasn't an elite prospect. These days, scouts would tear him apart.

I think that people overestimate the extent to which situation influences QB success. Good quarterbacks can change plays, check-down, sell the play-action, step up in the pocket, get the ball out sooner, and do a myriad of other things to minimize the effects of a bad situation.

Pre-snap reads and pocket presence go a long way toward separating Brett Favre from JP Losman, and Peyton Manning from David Carr. These are also skills that are almost impossible to quantify, and difficult to translate from the NCAA to the NFL based on film study.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:36 PM    (permalink
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I think that people overestimate the extent to which situation influences QB success. Good quarterbacks can change plays, check-down, sell the play-action, step up in the pocket, get the ball out sooner, and do a myriad of other things to minimize the effects of a bad situation.
Well, this is where we part opinions. All of that sounds just fine in theory, but does it happen that way in the NFL? A rookie is a rookie, and no matter what, he's going to take his lumps. People know that, so they'll have leniency with him. But another thing to keep in mind here is that Luck isn't going to be the only rookie on that offense. There's a new coaching staff for the Colts, and it's going to be a transitional time for even the veterans.

I've seen really good QB's be victim to circumstance. And it's a shame. But with the position comes the heavy weight of responsibility for the teams success. And if they can't be successful in 3-4 years, then he's the guy that will be taking the heat.

Everyone's talking about this kid like he's the 2nd coming of Christ, and for pretty understandable reasons. He's an amazing QB prospect. But all that build-up and heightened expectation is a recipe for disaster; as we've seen before.

By the way, I also wanted to take a second and point out something. You also said that "Scouts today would have torn him (Couch) apart." I disagree. There's nothing new under the sun, and scouts have not changed their routine in quite some time. The combine has been a rigorous evaluation process for better than 20 years. They still get fooled every single year. They still miss highly talented players every year. They do a difficult job as well as humanly possible. But certain things, in your words, can't be quantified. Jerry Glanville said once upon a time, "If a guy comes into this league and fails, it's probably because he's scared." And you just can't know if a guy is going to get to that next level, take a monster hit in his first game, lose his confidence, and play scared for the rest of his career.
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Old 04-30-2012, 10:08 PM    (permalink
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Well, this is where we part opinions. All of that sounds just fine in theory, but does it happen that way in the NFL? A rookie is a rookie, and no matter what, he's going to take his lumps. People know that, so they'll have leniency with him. But another thing to keep in mind here is that Luck isn't going to be the only rookie on that offense. There's a new coaching staff for the Colts, and it's going to be a transitional time for even the veterans.

I've seen really good QB's be victim to circumstance. And it's a shame. But with the position comes the heavy weight of responsibility for the teams success. And if they can't be successful in 3-4 years, then he's the guy that will be taking the heat.

Everyone's talking about this kid like he's the 2nd coming of Christ, and for pretty understandable reasons. He's an amazing QB prospect. But all that build-up and heightened expectation is a recipe for disaster; as we've seen before.

By the way, I also wanted to take a second and point out something. You also said that "Scouts today would have torn him (Couch) apart." I disagree. There's nothing new under the sun, and scouts have not changed their routine in quite some time. The combine has been a rigorous evaluation process for better than 20 years. They still get fooled every single year. They still miss highly talented players every year. They do a difficult job as well as humanly possible. But certain things, in your words, can't be quantified. Jerry Glanville said once upon a time, "If a guy comes into this league and fails, it's probably because he's scared." And you just can't know if a guy is going to get to that next level, take a monster hit in his first game, lose his confidence, and play scared for the rest of his career.
I hate to inform you but there was heavy criticism of the Couch pick when it was made. He was no where near the prospect Luck is, not even close.
There is almost nothing to back up the theory that weak teams lead to rookie QB failures. Many of the greatest QB's ever to play in the NFL started out on incrediably weak teams but had the mental toughness to put failure behind them and inspire their players to play at a higher level which eventually led to their greatness.
Let's take Stafford at Detroit. He has the same OL basically that the 0-16 Lions had, including Johnson the WR but the Lions drafted him #1 because they projected him as a true franchise QB. The weak OL lead to injuries but this past season, he stayed healthy and showed that he had the mental toughness to put past problems behind him and inspired his offensive teammates to play above their abilities.
Great QB's don't ever play scared and the QB's who do, were never going to obtain greatness no matter who you put on their team.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:40 PM    (permalink
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Busts huh...


Well glad to see the Dontari Poe love. Maybe he will turn out but if he gets drafted high, it is just on his combine numbers, not his ability or production on the field...Usually one without the other does not really mix.

Justin Blackmon kind of comes to mind, he will be good but not sure he will be top 3 receivers in the NFL. No way I would ever take him over Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson, there is just no way. People who think he is that good are fooling themselves.

Ryan Broyles, hopefully he comes back strong from injury and is the same player, but only time will tell. I hope he does, but if he loses a step or loses some of his aggressiveness he could have issues.


Vontaze Burfict, if he continues on his epic collapse. I mean seriously a year from now who did not like him prospect wise. Talented, tough, aggressive, big hitter. But that 40 time is awful and those character issues. Still this he has ability and could be a 3rd or 4th round pick as a 3/4 ILB, we will see. But wow has he really dropped in so many peoples eyes and he has not even played a game yet in the NFL.
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Old 08-02-2012, 10:58 AM    (permalink
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The situation is what I think condemns Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is not a team that's 1 QB away from going back to the Superbowl.
Name me one team in the history of the entire NFL draft who has had the #1 pick that was one QB away from a Super Bowl. I don't think you realize how ridiculous this statement is.
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Old 04-22-2012, 08:46 AM    (permalink
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Dontari Poe, Fletcher Cox and Melvin Ingram are all going to bust.
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Old 04-22-2012, 09:24 AM    (permalink
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Claiborne
Richardson
Coples
Poe
Ingram

Haven't looked at the back half of the 1st round yet
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Old 04-22-2012, 09:30 AM    (permalink
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RGIII- Think he is way overvalued. Played in the Big 12. Was a late first round pick until he put up amazing combine numbers, then all of a sudden he is the greatest thing since sliced bread. The Washington organization has been a sewer for decades.

Stephon Gilmore- From what I have seen of him, he has never impressed me. While doing my youtube scouting, he doesn't impress me. It seems like he is always near the play, or in the frame but never actually doing anything. Again, has a good combine and all of a sudden he is can't miss.

Melvin Ingram- Jack of all nothings, the versatility hype scares me, would rather a defensive end/rush backer do one thing exceptionally well than a lot of things average.

Coples- Just a gut feeling, I saw him interviewed on ESPN and he just looks like a quitter/screw up

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Old 04-22-2012, 09:31 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Fred Savage View Post
RGIII- Think he is way overvalued. Played in the Big 12. Was a late first round pick until he put up amazing combine numbers, then all of a sudden he is the greatest thing since sliced bread. The Washington organization has been a sewer for decades.

Stephon Gilmore- From what I have seen of him, he has never impressed me. While doing my youtube scouting, he doesn't impress me. It seems like he is always near the play, or in the frame but never actually doing anything. Again, has a good combine and all of a sudden he is can't miss.
That is so false its unbelievable.

EDIT: I want to add Fletcher Cox to my list.
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Old 04-22-2012, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by SuperPacker View Post
That is so false its unbelievable.
Go on... What part of that is false, all seems like fact to me. Look up mocks in Dec./Jan. RGIII was usually in the late first (if in the first at all). He played in the Big 12. A conference that plays zero D, offenses put up guady numbers, has produced zero quality QB's in the last 10 years, (jury is still out on Freeman and Bradford, they could easly debunk that point this year). Your gonna be hard pressed to argue that Washington has been anything but a crap organization over the last 10 years.
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Old 04-22-2012, 10:29 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Fred Savage View Post
Go on... What part of that is false, all seems like fact to me. Look up mocks in Dec./Jan. RGIII was usually in the late first (if in the first at all). He played in the Big 12. A conference that plays zero D, offenses put up guady numbers, has produced zero quality QB's in the last 10 years, (jury is still out on Freeman and Bradford, they could easly debunk that point this year). Your gonna be hard pressed to argue that Washington has been anything but a crap organization over the last 10 years.
If you watch what both Luck and Griffin can do on the football field you can see that in no catergory Luck is better than Griffin.

Griffin has a better arm,faster,more accurate and isnt a coward when it comes to throwing deep.

Luck is captain check down and will be a future chad pennington.
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Old 04-22-2012, 10:31 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Fred Savage View Post
Go on... What part of that is false, all seems like fact to me. Look up mocks in Dec./Jan. RGIII was usually in the late first (if in the first at all). He played in the Big 12. A conference that plays zero D, offenses put up guady numbers, has produced zero quality QB's in the last 10 years, (jury is still out on Freeman and Bradford, they could easly debunk that point this year). Your gonna be hard pressed to argue that Washington has been anything but a crap organization over the last 10 years.
Lol we made the playoffs in 2007 and RG3 was getting first round hype in like the top 10 when he was making his Heisman push....
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Old 04-22-2012, 07:08 PM    (permalink
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RGIII- Think he is way overvalued. Played in the Big 12. Was a late first round pick until he put up amazing combine numbers, then all of a sudden he is the greatest thing since sliced bread. The Washington organization has been a sewer for decades.
This post is so full of fail it's comical. He was a late first round pick mid to late LAST season. He was easily a top ten pick when he went off this season. By the time he won the Heisman he was already the second best QB in the draft. AFTER the combine people began to question if Luck was really the top QB talent in the draft. And what does Washington's past 10 yeas have to do with his future success. Since they only won one playoff game it automatically means he will bust? Some of the most idiotic logic on this board I've ever seen and that's really hard to top.
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Old 04-23-2012, 08:26 AM    (permalink
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. And what does Washington's past 10 yeas have to do with his future success. Since they only won one playoff game it automatically means he will bust?.
Makes perfect sense, I hear it all the time in basically all sports. Players who go to disfunctional organizations, have a greater chance of failing just because upper-management is so terrible it trickles down to players, etc. Poor personel decisions, hiring bad coaches, etc. Washington has been awful recently, terrible signings, Head Ball Coach, Donovan McNabb disaster, etc. If that continues if will hurt RGIII. I hear all the time, "oh man I hope the Brown's dont draft him, his career will be over before it starts" Why wouldnt it apply to Washington? Even in this very thread people are using Luck wont suceed because of the Colts poorly run organization (which I disagree with). Why wouldn't it apply to Washington?

I am interested to see Griffin have to throw into tight windows consistently, then Kendal Wright 10 yards open down the field, I think he will struggle a lot more than people think.
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Old 04-23-2012, 08:34 AM    (permalink
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Even in this very thread people are using Luck wont suceed because of the Colts poorly run organization
I'm not saying it's a poorly run organization. More or less, I like the environment that ownership has set forth for the players. My main concern is that they've gotten really old, and haven't drafted particularly well in the last 3 years. Here's the evidence:

2011 1 1 22 22 Anthony Castonzo T Boston College
2 2 17 49 Benjamin Ijalana T Villanova
3 3 23 87 Drake Nevis DT Louisiana State
4 4 22 119 Delone Carter RB Syracuse
5 6 23 188 Chris Rucker DB Michigan State

2010 1 1 31 31 Jerry Hughes LB Texas Christian
2 2 31 63 Patrick Angerer LB Iowa
3 3 30 94 Kevin Thomas DB USC
4 4 31 129 Jacques McClendon G Tennessee
5 5 31 162 Brody Eldridge TE Oklahoma
6 7 31 238 Ricardo Mathews DT Cincinnati
7 7 33 240 Kavell Conner LB Clemson
8 7 39 246 Ray Fisher DB Indiana

2009 1 1 27 27 Donald Brown RB Connecticut
2 2 24 56 Fili Moala DT USC
3 3 28 92 Jerraud Powers DB Auburn
4 4 27 127 Austin Collie WR Brigham Young
5 4 36 136 Terrance Taylor DT Michigan
6 6 28 201 Curtis Painter QB Purdue
7 7 13 222 Pat McAfee P West Virginia
8 7 27 236 Jaimie Thomas T Maryland

Not a lot of difference makers. I think the Colts are a team that's been riding mostly on reputation the last few years, and when Manning's arm gave out (or neck, or whatever), the floor fell through on them. My point is only that they aren't 1 player away from being a success. They have a serious rebuilding process to go through.
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Old 04-23-2012, 10:23 AM    (permalink
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Makes perfect sense, I hear it all the time in basically all sports. Players who go to disfunctional organizations, have a greater chance of failing just because upper-management is so terrible it trickles down to players, etc. Poor personel decisions, hiring bad coaches, etc. Washington has been awful recently, terrible signings, Head Ball Coach, Donovan McNabb disaster, etc. If that continues if will hurt RGIII. I hear all the time, "oh man I hope the Brown's dont draft him, his career will be over before it starts" Why wouldnt it apply to Washington? Even in this very thread people are using Luck wont suceed because of the Colts poorly run organization (which I disagree with). Why wouldn't it apply to Washington?

I am interested to see Griffin have to throw into tight windows consistently, then Kendal Wright 10 yards open down the field, I think he will struggle a lot more than people think.
Because Washington isn't dysfunctional. They are the exact opposite. A proven head coach. A no BS head coach. The players love him and want to play for him. A very strong longer room. A GM who doesn't piss away money by over paying head case players. An owner with deep pockets and who had finally agreed to take a back seat and just sign checks. The problem is they aren't talented and deep enough at critical positions. That comes with time. Shanahan had a monster offseason and draft last year.

People want to throw the McNabb trade on Shanny without knowing the whole story. He took the blame fully knowing #5 was the problem. He sat down with him and told him his flaws and how they were going to avoid and change them but it would require dedication and hard work. McNabb didn't put that work in. Plain and simple. No coach makes every correct personel move. Props to Shanny for ridding himself of #5 instead of forcing him to make it work. There isn't a better QB head coach combo then Shanny and RG3. Griffin is beyond determined. He has impeccable work ethic and leadership. Nothing is a given as far as RG3s success but Luck has just a great of a chance of busting as Griffin if not more. The Colts have a nut job owner and absolutely no talent on that team to help Luck.
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Old 04-22-2012, 10:26 AM    (permalink
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Old 04-22-2012, 10:28 AM    (permalink
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Old 04-22-2012, 10:41 AM    (permalink
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Go on... What part of that is false, all seems like fact to me. Look up mocks in Dec./Jan. RGIII was usually in the late first (if in the first at all).
http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/...ad.php?t=49390

I had Griffin going 2nd in November...
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Old 04-22-2012, 06:14 PM    (permalink
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http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/...ad.php?t=49390

I had Griffin going 2nd in November...
Respect, I wonder how Vidae feels about that pick now, lol

I wonder who Scott's picks are for this years draft busts. The busts are the best part of the draft. Akili Smith, Tim Couch... hearing some of those names make me crack a smile.

Last edited by Fred Savage : 04-22-2012 at 06:24 PM.
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