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Old 10-10-2012, 12:07 AM    (permalink
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Default My Post Week 5 Thoughts

Here are my thoughts on what's going on around the league. Its like my football manifesto.


The Houston Texans Anointed NFLs Best AFC Team Prematurely

Everyone and their mother is raving about the Houston Texans. Their great defense and their balanced offense has been the recipe for success in the NFL since the game was invented. I love the Texans, and I love what they have done with this team... both offensively and defensively. But I would be stunned if they made it to the Super Bowl. Obviously the division is wrapped up, and they may boast the best record in the NFL (let alone the AFC) once the season ends, but I have my concerns.

For a 5-0 team, this isn't a dominant team. So far they have played the Miami Dolphins (2-3), Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4), Denver Broncos (2-3), Tennessee Titans (1-4) and the New York Jets (2-3). The Texans should be 5-0 after that soft schedule. They've done nothing that they aren't supposed to do. They are going to finish this season playing only (4) playoff caliber teams. Chicago, New England, Green Bay and Baltimore. But what do they lack?

This offense isn't as good as people think.

Andre Johnson. Is Johnson still among the Top 3 WRs in the game? I'm not sure if the guy is Top 10 anymore. Johnson seems like he's lost a step. He sure as hell isn't the same player he was in 2010. He hasn't had a good game since week 1 of the season where he caught 8 passes for 119 yards and 1 TD.

In the (4) weeks since then, he's caught just 9 passes for 164 yards and 1 TD. He's simply not the same player he was two years ago. He is getting up their age and coming off a couple different hamstring injuries last season, but against the Jets he was completely shut down by Antonio Cromartie. He also loafed on a route that resulted in Cromartie undercutting the throw and intercepting the pass. For a guy who's not on the field as much as he used to be, loafing around is unacceptable. When the playoffs come around, big time WRs need to produce against the elite defenses and top tier CBs. Cromartie, for as much flack as he gets, is still a top tier CB. And if this is the kind of result we should expect in the postseason from Johnson, the Texans may be missing a much needed dimension to that offense. He showed up last postseason, but he needs to step up his play for this offense to be the kind of balanced offense everyone is raving about.

The Offensive Line. The right side of the offensive line isn't what it used to be. And the lose of Eric Winston isn't easily replaceable. This running game has struggled a bit as of late. Antoine Caldwell and Derek Newton on the right side isn't exactly dominant anymore. Duane Brown and Chris Meyers are still two of the best in the business at their respective positions, but I don't think this offensive line is the same as it used to be. There has been a lack of big plays in the running game.

The Texans are putting more pressure on Arian Foster than ever before. He's also not producing quite like he used to be. And I think that's attributed to a couple things. Teams are focused on stopping the run first and foremost, and the offensive line isn't quite the same. This isn't also a dominant passing offense that is going to force safeties deep. Foster has, quietly, struggled to average over 100 yards rushing per game. Foster is still one of the best RBs in the NFL, but he's only averaged over 4.0 yards per carry twice in his first five starts this season. That's kind of surprising when you consider the defenses he's played against. Foster is also on pace for over 400 carries this season. That's a lot of touches for a RB. This type of wear and tear may have a long term effect on Foster' career.

Matt Schaub. Where do I begin with Matt Schaub? Is he good? Yes, he is, but I saw an interesting stat during the MNF telecast. It had a stat for most 20+ yard gains off the play action pass. Schaub was #1 by a wide margin (112 since 2007), and he was ranked ahead of the elite QBs in the NFL over that time period (Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees). I think this stat shows exactly what I think about him. He is a product of that system just as much as any QB in the NFL. He relies on the play action pass. That whole offense does. Schaub struggles as a pure drop back passer, finding the mismatches and dicing up a defense. For all the yards and TDs he's thrown for, he resembles more and more of a game manger type as the season / years go along. When it comes to Schaub against Roethlisberger in the playoffs, I'm taking Big Ben. Because when you have two good teams matched up, it usually comes down to the team with the better QB. I simply don't think Schaub is the type of guy that is going to lead his team late in the 4th QT on a game winning drive to take a team to the Super Bowl. He is still an unproven commodity in the NFL when it comes to the playoffs. One thing I will say that I've learned more this year about him... He's a lot tougher than I thought.

The Defense. If Cushing is done for the season that immediately becomes a huge blow to the defense. I think the Texans are susceptible to giving up big yards on the ground. A lot of times they create huge running lanes by having 5 DL one gap up the field. They can take themselves out of the play. It's still a very good defense, but stoutness against the run is something that I still question.

JJ Watt is about as great a player as there is in this league. Both offensively and defensively. I cannot sing his praises enough. I don't think anyone else has a chance at Defensive Player of the Year. The scheme is going to allow him to rush the passer. A potential 16+ sack season from the 34 DE position while playing great run defense? The tipped passes at the line of scrimmage (which have already resulted in numerous INTs)? Watt is playing lights out. I don't think another player has been playing better than him. QBs included. This is about as dominant as it gets.



Right When I Thought The 43 Defense Was Getting Phased Out of the NFL...

34 defenses have been steadily increasing in numbers year after year. And the best defenses are usually the 34 defenses by years end. But teams like the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks are making me question, again, which system is better?

I still think I would take a 34 defense, but what Seattle and Chicago are doing is nothing short of impressive. How many teams are going to have 3 of their 4 starting players in their secondary over 6'3''? How many 43 teams have a 330 pound DE rushing the passer off the edge? With a perfect complimentary piece on the other side? Or DTs that can stop the run and collapse the pocket?

How many teams have a Julius Peppers type DE that they can kick inside on passing downs? And have the type of pass rushing talent to put outside like Shea McClellin or Corey Wootton? Or an emerging star in the middle like Henry Melton? To go along with the ageless linebackers that go by their last name only? Urlacher and Briggs?

I think Seattle has the best defense in the NFL right now. A lot of that I attribute to the secondary. I think Brandon Browner has become by favorite defensive back in the NFL. I think he's one of the elite CBs in the game. You don't appreciate the physicality of a CB like Browner until you watch Dominique Rogers-Cromartie or Chris Gamble in back-to-back games, and then have the pleasure of watching Browner come up and lay a 230 pound RB to the ground like he was a strong safety. Both of the other two CBs I mentioned jog in front of the ball carrier until someone else tackles him. Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and Richard Shurman make up the best secondary in the NFL. And I'm not sure if it's even close anymore.



The Decline of The QB?

Last year was dubbed "The Year of the QB" by ESPN, and QBs didn't disappoint as numerous QBs shattered passing records. But this year? What the hell as happened to Aaron Rodgers? Passer rating of a mere 97? Only averaging 261 yards passing per game? Taking the amount of sacks he has? The lack of scoring by his offense?

The struggles are apparent for casual fans to recognize. This offense isn't the same as it was last year. Rodgers has faced (3) of the best defenses in the NFL in the first (3) weeks (Seattle, 49ers, Bears). And he struggled against those teams, as most QBs have / would. He only threw 3 TDs in those three games against 2 INTs. The Packers have yet to score 30 points in a game. Through 5 games, they have yet to put 30 on someone. And they just played the Saints. That should tell there's something there.

So what is wrong? To tell you the truth... there seems to be a lot of things going wrong all at the same time. The WRs and TEs don't look that good. Simply put. They don't look good. They aren't getting a ton of separation. Rodgers doesn't have much time in the pocket, but when he does... he's just not seeing the open guy like he has in the past. The running game is average at best, but with Cedric Benson now going down with an injury for a good chunk of the season... what do they turn to? Alex Green?

This, simply put, is not a prolific offense. Not like it used to be. I think the losses of Greg Jennings and Scott Wells have been sorely felt. I don't expect the Packers to play much better than what they have already shown thus far. Aaron Rodgers is still an elite player, but that offense has come down to reality, and he's not having a career year to make up for everyone else. I don't think any of Rodgers' pieces are as good as advertised, maybe with the exception of Randall Cobb. Something is wrong in Green Bay.

JerMichael Finley? I'm still waiting on him to prove that he's an elite player. Dropped passes and bone head plays do nothing but discourage me from ever thinking he's going to become an elite TE. He's simply not a great player, and I don't think he ever will be. It should have happened by now. He's a piece in this offense, and when the offense is clicking, Finley becomes a real good player. But too often when Finley should establish himself as a go-to-guy, the disappearing act renders itself. There might be close to 10 TEs I might take over Finley if I sat down and thought about it.

Jordy Nelson? You are not a #1 WR even though he tricked everyone into thinking you were at the end of last season. I don't know what else to say about him. He's good in spurts, and then he gets shutdown. He simply cannot be relied on in pressure situations against the opposing teams best DB. He's not going to win. James Jones does what he does whether the Packers have a running game or if their best weapons are on the field. He's just a good, solid player. But, he's not a consistent threat. None of these guys are. Greg Jennings injury is proving what kind of impact he has on this offense. He makes every WR and TE around him better. He is the go-to-guy in crunch time. Opposing teams know it. They game plan around him, and that has freed up someone else in the past. Whether it be Nelson, Jones, Finley or Cobb.

Of course I'm talking about the Packers offense like the sky is falling, but when you've become accustomed to the kind of offense Green Bay has had for the past two years... the sky is falling. They scored less than 30 points 5 times all last season. They've already matched that total.



The Joe Flacco Conundrum and the Baltimore Raves; A Model of Consistency.

I've always said that the Ravens play down to their competition, especially the week following a big game (like a Steelers or Patriots game). But going into Kansas City, I would have never thought they would have played for their lives in a 9-6 shitfest of awfulness. To go 13/27 (48%) for 187 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT and to get sacked 4 times? Against a team who is now 27th in the league in scoring defense? And they're only ranked that well because the Ravens only scored 9 points against them? Seriously? What the **** is wrong with this picture?

If Flacco wants to sit in front of a camera and do interviews proclaiming that he's an elite QB and that he belongs with Brady and Manning and blah blah blah, then beat teams like the ******* Chiefs soundly, would ya? I can't stand this guy and I've always been a lot harder on him than most people, but we're five weeks into the season, and he's had a mildly difficult schedule (and that's being nice since he's played one defense that resembles anything close to a Top 10 caliber defense). And he still has a passer rating under 90. In one week he looks like he's ready to be called elite, and then the next? Its whatever, we can just piss this game away. It's only Kansas City.

In the last four weeks... the Ravens have played every game down to the wire. At some point, just beat someone. Just beat them down. Take their lunch money and act like you're the class of the AFC. Week 1 when everyone's pumped up and the adrenaline is going it happened... but take that into week 5 for once. This should have been a no contest. The game against the Browns, on a short week, should have looked worse than it was.

There is a shift in Baltimore gradually taking place. The defense is declining, and its declining fast. More rapidly than I think even the front office had anticipated. The loss of Terrell Suggs has been crucial. Anytime you remove a DPOY from a defense, that is going to be felt. But the aging process of Ray Lewis? That has finally taken place. Two years ago, Lewis was still playing at a high level. He was still among the best ILBs in the game. But now? He's not even close. The lack of speed is showing. He's no longer a sideline-to-sideline threat. He's not that physical force in the middle that he used to be. He has, for the first time in his career, taken two steps back. Retirement is lurking. More than ever for Ray Lewis. Couple that with the much less severe decline of Ed Reed, and you have a defense that is fading. And fading fast.

This is not a team that is I expect to play at an elite level in the playoffs. I don't know if they can maintain the type of intensity on defense, week to week in the playoffs that they once did. That means Joe Flacco is going to have to carry this offense to the Super Bowl. This is an average defense. A great offense? All the pieces are there. The scheme. The RB. The offensive line and the wide receivers. Who knows.



Now It's Time To Talk About the Minnesota Vikings...

That about does it.



Next Topic: The Pittsburgh Steelers

After a rough start to the season the Steelers bounced back with a must win game against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Steelers have been plagued by injuries so far this year. To who? Oh, just Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Rashard Mendenhall and David DeCastro. No big deal, right? Its not like they lost their best player: Ben Roethlisberger.

How they have looked as good as they have at certain times with the loss of key personnel this season? It is beyond me. It's not like the Steelers are an incredible drafting team. They do alright. They usually hit home runs in Round 1 and pick a solid player or two after that. But this team is ranked 5th in the NFL is total yards allowed on defense. And they just got James Harrison back against the Eagles. To then lose LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu... again.

But they're ranked 5th in total yards allowed for one reason and one reason only: Ben Roethlisberger. A lot of talk was made in the off season of Todd Haley and Big Ben. How they weren't on the same page and this and that. Well, if this is Big Ben not on the same page with his offensive coordinator, then I can't wait to see what happens when Haley and Ben Roethlisberger get on the same page. If anyone needs to start garnering MVP talks... it's Ben Roethlisberger. This ball control offense is simply unbelievable. They have controlled the clock without a running game for the first four weeks. All the pressure to produce yardage and long scoring drives... on the shoulders of #7. Penalties up front would kill drives and frustrate even the most elite of QBs, but Big Ben just continues to overcome them. They just continue to dominate on third downs. It is utterly fascinating to watch.

I think you have to watch Roethlisberger a lot to realize just how great of a player he is. When the casual fan watches him in a Super Bowl, and he doesn't set the world on fire, they call him overrated or discredit him or only give exclusive credit to the defense... whatever the case may be. The truth is, this guy is elite and he's as good as they come. Not only does he make everyone around him better, but he makes this defense look better than it actually is.

Rashard Mendenhall though... let's stop all this disgusting praise for Big Ben for just a second and realize how good this guy is. Maybe it's because Isaac Redman just isn't that good, maybe the Eagles just can't stop the run, I don't know, but the difference between the running game through the first three games of the season, and then to compare that to the game in week 5? Astronomical. The Steelers were averaging in the low 2s for yards per rush going into week 5. They were the worst in the NFL. Mendenhall comes in and averages 5.8 yards per carry. It could have been even better, but a 20 yard run was negated due to a holding penalty. Mendenhall has much improved vision and better patience than given credit for. He's got great speed and it shows on the field. He still runs tough between the tackles, but this is a completely different offense when he's on the field. Mendenhall is an excellent RB in this league. And he may emerge as one of the better RBs in football by the end of this year. He is going to prove to be crucial to this offense.

I fully expect the Steelers to do what they usually do. They will overcome a paltry defense (who can't generate an interception to save their lives) that's already riddled with injuries to their best players. They will overcome the offensive line problems, and they will be there when it matters. Late in the season the Steelers will be playing their best football. And this offense will be ready to lead them deep into the playoffs. And I think all the way to the Super Bowl. I don't think there's another QB in the NFL playing better than the one wearing black & gold right now. After 4 weeks I thought Eli Manning was the MVP of the league, but after 4 games, I think its Ben Roethlisberger.



"America's Team"

I don't know if there's anything new on the home front to talk about when talking about the Cowboys. I mean, they have talent, no for real, they actually have talent this year, but they still manage, or find a way, to suck. I don't get it. The problems, for the first time in a while, are stemming from the offensive side of the ball. If it isn't one thing it's another.

They seem to lack an identity on offense. I'm not sure what kind of team Jason Garrett is running, but I know Rob Ryan is running that defense. He has his blue prints all over it. Currently the Cowboys are ranked #1 against the pass. Their defense has stepped up. That defense is good enough for the Cowboys to be doing damage. But the offense? Not running the football... Having an offensive line that can't get consistent push... I don't know what the problem is, but it seems to be coaching. It has to be.

I've explained in detail how I feel about Tony Romo before. He is a good QB in this league. Throwing 5 INTs against a Bears team? It could be worse. But I just look at the Cowboys and sit there in amazement. How can Dez Bryant be so talented, yet so pedestrian? For the first few seasons of his career he was completely out of the picture once half time rolled around. Now he's been force fed the ball for 4 QTs and he's making ridiculous blunders that a rookie would make. It's time Dez Bryant caught up with everyone else and learned how to read a defense, make a sight adjustments and run the proper routes, and then... catch the football. It's year three. It's time to start playing up to your talent. And Miles Austin? For huge chunks of the game he's nowhere to be found. Then he hits a couple big plays here and there, and he looks like he's had a productive day. He's looking more and more like #2 WR while Dez Bryant is mentally incapable of being a #1 WR.

The Cowboys have problems on offense. And I think it starts with the Head Coach. Until he figures out what kind of offense he wants to run and can run, I think this team continues to sputter to a mediocre season. And the more bad performances that come out of Dallas, the closer and closer this goes to becoming Rob Ryan's team, which, in my opinion, can't happen fast enough. Maybe Rob will be able to hire his brother as defensive coordinator next year...



The Sorry Ass Lions...

We're back to what we've been accustomed to for over a decade out of Detroit. An undisciplined football team that loses games because their special teams is the worst in football. Offensively? They have nothing but the best offensive weapon in football. That's all they have. They have no running game even though they have, at the very least, attempted to run the ball by calling the same running play on first and second downs. All the pressure is on Matthew Stafford to perform. He's supposed to make Titus Young, Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew consistent receiving threats in a pass first offense. Those four guys I just mentioned are not that good.

The talent is not there to be that kind of team. It only even resembled that kind of offense last year because Calvin Johnson was so historically dominant. He hasn't caught the amount of TDs he did to start last season. Teams are making other players beat them. And they can't. The Lions, offensively, aren't that good. They're one dimensional and they can't consistently throw the ball with success since they don't have the skill position players to do it. Their special teams are atrocious. They are the worst I have ever seen. The defense has no one in the secondary outside of Chris Houston, who may be the only player in that secondary that could start for another team, may be even make another team.

Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley... Where are we? Suh fell off the map last year from his rookie campaign, which was, by all accounts, an absolutely dominating season by any standard. Since then though? Suh has been an average starting DT in a 43 front. Nothing bad, but not what he was supposed to be. He is facing double teams with regularity, but he needs to make more of an impact when he does get one-on-one matchup's. He should be better than this.

I'm calling it right now. Fairley is going to be a bust. He does nothing on the field. He has no technique at all. He's just a waste of a 1st round draft pick. And I can't even act like this / wasn't easily foreseeable.


The Best of The Best... So Far... (And Kind of Off the Top of My Head)


BEST TEAM

1. 49ers
2. Steelers
3. Giants
4. Texans
5. Falcons / Patriots



OFFENSIVE PLAYERS


QB

1. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
2. Eli Manning, Giants
3. Matt Ryan, Falcons
4. Tom Brady, Patriots
5. Aaron Rodgers, Packers


RB

1. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
2. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
3. Arian Foster, Texans
4. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
5. CJ Spiller, Bills


WR / TE

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
2. Brandon Marshall, Bears
3. A.J. Green, Bengals
4. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
5. Vernon Davis, 49ers



DEFENSE


DL

1. JJ Watt, Texans
2. Justin Smith, 49ers
3. Jason Pierre-Paul, Giants
4. Haloti Ngata, Ravens
5. Calais Campbell / Darnell Dockett, Cardinals


LB

1. Clay Matthews, Packers
2. DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys
3. Chad Greenway, Vikings
4. Patrick Willis / NaVorro Bowman, 49ers
5. Lawrence Timmons, Steelers


DB

1. Brandon Browner, Sehawks
2. Dashon Goldson, 49ers
3. Tim Jennings, Bears
4. Patrick Peterson, Cardinals
5. Earl Thomas, Sehawks
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Old 10-10-2012, 12:20 AM    (permalink
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Aside from Big Ben above Matt Ryan I don't see too many glaring things here.
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Old 10-10-2012, 12:39 AM    (permalink
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great read. this is why i love nfldc.
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Old 10-10-2012, 05:54 AM    (permalink
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Matt Schaub. Where do I begin with Matt Schaub? Is he good? Yes, he is, but I saw an interesting stat during the MNF telecast. It had a stat for most 20+ yard gains off the play action pass. Schaub was #1 by a wide margin (112 since 2007), and he was ranked ahead of the elite QBs in the NFL over that time period (Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees). I think this stat shows exactly what I think about him. He is a product of that system just as much as any QB in the NFL. He relies on the play action pass. That whole offense does. Schaub struggles as a pure drop back passer, finding the mismatches and dicing up a defense. For all the yards and TDs he's thrown for, he resembles more and more of a game manger type as the season / years go along. When it comes to Schaub against Roethlisberger in the playoffs, I'm taking Big Ben. Because when you have two good teams matched up, it usually comes down to the team with the better QB. I simply don't think Schaub is the type of guy that is going to lead his team late in the 4th QT on a game winning drive to take a team to the Super Bowl. He is still an unproven commodity in the NFL when it comes to the playoffs. One thing I will say that I've learned more this year about him... He's a lot tougher than I thought.
Disagree. Just because Schaub happens to be good off of playaction doesn't mean he isn't a good passer in classic three step or five step, maybe seven step drops. What were his stats in the shot gun? Or a five step drop? Schaub was looking good in Atlanta in his first few years in the league before he was traded. He has good natural instincts as a player and a pretty good arm. What would "validate" Schaub for you in your eyes? A lot of the games' best players if not all work good in systems that suit their strength. I don't think Peyton Manning would be as effective running bootlegs in Mike Shanahan's offense or Gary Kubiak's. And doesn't Aaron Rodgers work off a boatload of rollouts and play action? Montana was in a system that utilized his strengths as well. Same with Steve Young. Also, I don't believe there is any "one way" to be an effective quarterback. You do what works and what makes your offense explosive. Schaub as a quarterback is a passing threat. The Texans are running the ball a lot more successfully the last couple of years which is why his fantasy football numbers have gone down (he's also been hurt), compared to years past when the Texans were losing games, but Schaub was doing things like leading the league in passing. You're right in implying that Schaub hasn't proven that much, but that's because the Texans have been losers for before last season due to a terrible defense, which of course results in no primetime games, which of course results in people not seeing the Texans, which of course results in people not having enough information to form an educated opinion. Schaub hasn't had that movie script type ending to a game in the NFL yet in primetime, so people slight him. But if you've seen enough Texans games, you'd know that Schaub can light it up with the best of the best in the league and can lead a team to a game winning score. Just because he hasn't had the opportunity yet (at least in primetime or the playoffs), doesn't mean he can't.
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Old 10-10-2012, 07:06 AM    (permalink
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Your rankings are clearly based off of what players are doing now, and if that is the case you cannot have JPP ranked above Ngata. JPP is still one of the elite talents in the league but he hasn't been better than Ngata this year.

Edit-or Calais Campbell. Sorry Fenikz.
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Old 10-10-2012, 08:34 AM    (permalink
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Your rankings are clearly based off of what players are doing now, and if that is the case you cannot have JPP ranked above Ngata. JPP is still one of the elite talents in the league but he hasn't been better than Ngata this year.

Edit-or Calais Campbell. Sorry Fenikz.
JPP doesn't have elite sack numbers so far but he's been every bit as dominant as he was last year. He's just getting a lot more max protections to go against and the rest of the DL isn't doing much to help.
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Old 10-10-2012, 07:20 AM    (permalink
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JerMichael Finley? I'm still waiting on him to prove that he's an elite player. Dropped passes and bone head plays do nothing but discourage me from ever thinking he's going to become an elite TE. He's simply not a great player, and I don't think he ever will be. It should have happened by now. He's a piece in this offense, and when the offense is clicking, Finley becomes a real good player. But too often when Finley should establish himself as a go-to-guy, the disappearing act renders itself. There might be close to 10 TEs I might take over Finley if I sat down and thought about it.
If you're still waiting for Jermichael, you're going to be waiting a long time. There's probably 20+ TE's i'd take over him.
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Old 10-10-2012, 08:33 AM    (permalink
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Great thread my man. I have comments on 2 thoughts.

1. Ben Roethlisberger

I'm so glad someone else has brought up how good this guy is. He's often not talked about here because he's overlooked by his defense, and he's not putting up dominant numbers, but just watch him play and you appreciate how good he is. His style is unorthodox, but he makes it work.

2. The 3-4 vs the 4-3. I learned that it doesn't matter. The line between the 2 systems is so blurred now, there really isn't much of a difference. It's all about how you attack gaps. You can attack gaps in a 4-3 in the exact same way as another team's 3-4, and vice versa.

The Seahawks defense is a perfect example. They're a 43 front superficially, but they really use a lot of 34 principles in gap assignments. There really isn't many pure 4-3 and 3-4 defenses anymore. All DCs use a little of everything nowadays.

If anything, the 43 front is coming back in a big way. With the spread getting more popular, teams want 4 men on the LOS rushing the passer. Most 34 fronts have a lot of even formations anyway, and a lot of 43 fronts use odd formations as well.

Basically, it doesn't matter anymore. It's all the same ****. It's up to the individual DC on how he wants to attack gaps. That's the key message here. How a DC attacks gaps is more important than the front itself. The front itself is just used to mask pressures/disguise coverages. How that front is used depends on the DC's preferences.
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Old 10-10-2012, 08:51 AM    (permalink
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Great effort in doing this write up. I wish you had more NFC but you did a great job. However, I think the rankings arent good I wished they were more accurate.
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Old 10-10-2012, 08:48 AM    (permalink
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I understand that, but the sack numbers are kind of expected from him. Ngata has been an absolute force as usual and looks like he might be playing his best football ever. That is why I would put him above JPP in these rankings because they are meant to reflect the first 5 weeks of this season.
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Old 10-10-2012, 08:54 AM    (permalink
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I understand that, but the sack numbers are kind of expected from him. Ngata has been an absolute force as usual and looks like he might be playing his est football ever. That is why I would put him above JPP in these rankings because they are meant to reflect the first 5 weeks of this season.
I wouldn't argue with you on that.
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Old 10-10-2012, 09:11 AM    (permalink
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You should do a write up on the Falcons. I think they are at best the 4th overall team in the NFC.

The Bears, 49ers and Giants would all take Atlanta's lunch money in the playoffs.
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Old 10-10-2012, 09:21 AM    (permalink
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http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl--al...f-ireland.html

This article is a glaring example of why I hate the media. It's a complete smear campaign by a butt hurt columnist who is taking shots at these 2 GMs and Parcells because they don't cater to the media.

Look, no one cares about your job and how coaches can sometimes make it difficult. They don't owe you anything. To ***** about Parcells not understanding that the NFL is "an entertainment business" just shows how far up his own ass this writer is.

His job is to win football games. He doesn't give a **** about the entertainment factor. That's your job.

I just hate how arrogant and shallow the media is, and how they think they're so important to this industry. No one gives a ****. No one cares.

And I hate how much influence they have on public perception. They're the biggest hypocrites in the world. They get to judge everyone in the industry with no accountability of their own. And often times, they have no clue what they're talking about.
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Old 10-10-2012, 09:26 AM    (permalink
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Not sure about the Bears or Giants. The Bears offense looked great against the Colts and Jaguars but those are two of the worst defenses in the league. They were terrible against the Packers and Rams and didn't play nearly as good as the final score would lead you to believe at Dallas, they only scored 20 points on offense. If the Bears can create turnovers they are great but Matt Ryan hasn't been turning it over this year. I think Atlanta would beat the Bears right now.

Not sold on the Giants yet, either. They needed an all-time great 4th quarter from Eli to beat the Bucs and didn't blow out the Browns like they should have. The combined record of the teams they have beaten is 2-12. They lost to both the .500 or better teams they faced.

I agree that the 49ers look better, though. They had that hiccup against a surprisingly good Vikings team but have completely dominated in their other four games.
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Old 10-10-2012, 10:41 AM    (permalink
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Not sure about the Bears or Giants. The Bears offense looked great against the Colts and Jaguars but those are two of the worst defenses in the league. They were terrible against the Packers and Rams and didn't play nearly as good as the final score would lead you to believe at Dallas, they only scored 20 points on offense. If the Bears can create turnovers they are great but Matt Ryan hasn't been turning it over this year. I think Atlanta would beat the Bears right now.

Not sold on the Giants yet, either. They needed an all-time great 4th quarter from Eli to beat the Bucs and didn't blow out the Browns like they should have. The combined record of the teams they have beaten is 2-12. They lost to both the .500 or better teams they faced.

I agree that the 49ers look better, though. They had that hiccup against a surprisingly good Vikings team but have completely dominated in their other four games.


That's fair. I am not sold on us either. Again, just like I said pre season its going to come down to injuries and DC. And its true I have zero faith in Fewell and our defense. Our offense specifically Eli is our MVP. Even that side of the ball is hurt. This team is a fragile team and I think Osi and Tuck specifically Tuck are on the downside of their careers.

Its a shame that every regular season our defense is always the issue. Stupid side of the ball!
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Old 10-10-2012, 10:49 AM    (permalink
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Steelers as a Super Bowl team is a joke.

They're not even one of the top-10 teams in the NFL this year. That defense is going to be average at best the entire year. The team might not even make the playoffs this year, and they surely won't win their division.

I don't care how good your QB is, if you don't have a solid defense in this league, you can't win a Super Bowl, and you probably won't even make it far into the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers only won a Super Bowl when his teams' defense was ranked #1 or #2 in the league. Ben himself has only ever played in the Super Bowl when his defense was a top-3 unit (2005,2008,2010).
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Old 10-10-2012, 11:16 AM    (permalink
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Steelers as a Super Bowl team is a joke.

They're not even one of the top-10 teams in the NFL this year. That defense is going to be average at best the entire year. The team might not even make the playoffs this year, and they surely won't win their division.

I don't care how good your QB is, if you don't have a solid defense in this league, you can't win a Super Bowl, and you probably won't even make it far into the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers only won a Super Bowl when his teams' defense was ranked #1 or #2 in the league. Ben himself has only ever played in the Super Bowl when his defense was a top-3 unit (2005,2008,2010).
What about last year. The giants D turned it around and became good, but the Pats D was still crap and that didn't stop them from making it out of the weak AFC.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 10-10-2012, 11:23 AM    (permalink
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What about last year. The giants D turned it around and became good, but the Pats D was still crap and that didn't stop them from making it out of the weak AFC.
Eh, the Pats defense actually played pretty well in the playoffs last year. They gave up on average 17 points per game. Down from 21 I believe in the regular season. Also, with the exception of the late drive against the Giants in the Superbowl they done a damn good job against your offense
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Old 10-10-2012, 09:35 AM    (permalink
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Don't tell Pittsburgh fans how good Big Ben is. He's the reason they lose and not the reason they win. It's pathetic. The dude is a top 5 QB and yet people want him gone.

Same with Mendenhall. All last year people were screaming to bench Mendenhall and to start Redman. Well they did. And he sucked a big fat one.

The defense is troubling, but as long as Big Ben is the QB of the Pittsburgh Steelers, you can NEVER count the team out. Same is said about Brady, Colts Peyton, and Aaron Rodgers.
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Old 10-10-2012, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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I thought everyone knew how good Roethlisberger was. ? ******** on the Vikings? Haha, I like that team this year. Can't wait to hear your take on the Panthers. Great read but you've disturbingly left Reggie Wayne out of the top receivers, he's probably #1 so far this year.
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Old 10-10-2012, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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Why is Pittsburgh your #2 team? They're 2-2 and have wins against the Jets and the Eagles who're not exactly powerhouses.
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Old 10-10-2012, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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Steelers as a Super Bowl team is a joke.

They're not even one of the top-10 teams in the NFL this year. That defense is going to be average at best the entire year. The team might not even make the playoffs this year, and they surely won't win their division.

I don't care how good your QB is, if you don't have a solid defense in this league, you can't win a Super Bowl, and you probably won't even make it far into the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers only won a Super Bowl when his teams' defense was ranked #1 or #2 in the league. Ben himself has only ever played in the Super Bowl when his defense was a top-3 unit (2005,2008,2010).

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Why is Pittsburgh your #2 team? They're 2-2 and have wins against the Jets and the Eagles who're not exactly powerhouses.
It's 5 weeks into the season. Does record matter to me? Yes and no. This is a difficult projection, and if you are projecting, based off the first five weeks, you would probably pick the Texans and 49ers to play in the Super Bowl. That's the easy projection because both teams have looked the best / looked like the most consistent teams thru the first five weeks.

The NFL doesn't work that way though. Usually "the best teams" don't always make it to the Super Bowl. There were about four teams in the NFC "better" than the Giants, but the Giants were the team to win out.

The Steelers lost to the Raiders and the Broncos. They've only beaten the Jets and the Eagles. Okay, I see your point, but it's how they've looked. This is an offensive driven league. The Steelers, offensively, look like they will have the best offense in the NFL by years end. The numbers might not show it, but the kind of offense they run with the short passing game... it's almost impossible to stop. They only stop themselves with dropped passes or missed assignments or penalties, but they still manage to overcome them most of the time.

The most glaring thing about this offense compared to years past... the number of costly turnovers and sacks have decreased... they only lost to Oakland because they couldn't hold onto the ball. I don't think that is going to be a trend. If they hold onto the ball, they win that game without much of a problem, and their sitting 3-1 with a three game winning streak and no one complains too much.

But the Steelers have only given up 4 sacks in their last 3 games. The offensive line is playing better and better. They just shut out the Eagles and I thought that was a big test, which they passed with flying colors.

Everyone is going to talk badly about their offensive line, because thats what people do and it has been warranted for about six years. The line just needs to stay healthy. Their line is the best its been, when its healthy, since 2005.

Max Starks and Marcus Gilbert both do good jobs protecting Big Ben. Better than most realize. You don't realize how good those two are when one of them goes down with an injury. Maurkice Pouncey is an elite center in this game. He's as good as it gets. He makes blocks during games that simply amaze me. On one play in particular, Starks blocked down and a pass rusher came from off the left side on a delayed blitz. Somehow Pouncey saw this at the last second and kick stepped all the way to the LT position and stonewalled a blitzer. The Center blocking on the outside. Unless that is a designed play, which is wasn't, you never see a center that far away from the center position making a block. He is simply unbelievable. The protections and the adjustments to blitz pick up have gotten so much better in the three years since he's been there compared to the four years between Jeff Hartings retirement and his arrival.

Willie Colon is getting better and more comfortable playing LG as the season goes along. He's only going to improve, but he's always going to be a very good run blocker. His pass protection still isn't what it should be. He missed, basically, all of last season. So, with a position change and not playing football for a year, there should be some rough spots. But Colon is the best OG they've had since Faneca. And if and when DeCastro comes back... this offensive line becomes a force. Not just a solid unit. But I don't expect to see DeCastro this season.

The Steelers have not had an offensive line with this much talent or quality in a long time. Really since their first Super Bowl of the 00s. Marvel Smith, Alan Faneca and Jeff Hartings... that left side was about as good as you could ask for.

Then the defense... Should there be concern in Pittsburgh? Yes. This team can't create turnovers. This is nothing new. They have less than nothing in the secondary outside of Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu (when's he in there). Ike Taylor has been declining for the last three years. He has gotten abused on the big stages against Demaryius Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald (Super Bowl). I think he knows that. He's not the same player he once was, and he doesn't ever play the ball when it's in the air. Plus he has some of the worst hands in the NFL. They have no depth at CB. None of those guys do a damn thing on the field.

The font 3 aren't elite players anymore either. Ziggy Hood was a terrible draft pick in round 1. If they took him in round 2 it might have been a reach (probably not, but...). Cam Heyward? He hasn't done much of anything. Casey Hampton has been in the league forever. He's not a dominant presence anymore. Still playing well, but not nearly the same. Brett Keisel might not be starter material anymore. Even though he might be their best DL. I haven't focused on Steve McLendon to see if he's going to be a guy that comes out of nowhere and outplays these high profile prospects.

So the front 3 and the secondary... that's their problem. Their LBs are probably the best in football, but they're banged up at the one position they can't afford to be late in the season. Lawrence Timmons is an about as good as any ILB in the NFL right now. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison... they're two of the best. They just got to get onto the field. And they have a much better defense when both of those guys are out there, which I fully expect as the season goes along.

You can't project what injuries are going to take place, but if the Steelers stay healthy at LB, OL and Troy Polamalu... I like their chances as much as anyone.
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Old 10-10-2012, 01:31 PM    (permalink
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It's 5 weeks into the season. Does record matter to me? Yes and no. This is a difficult projection, and if you are projecting, based off the first five weeks, you would probably pick the Texans and 49ers to play in the Super Bowl. That's the easy projection because both teams have looked the best / looked like the most consistent teams thru the first five weeks.

The NFL doesn't work that way though. Usually "the best teams" don't always make it to the Super Bowl. There were about four teams in the NFC "better" than the Giants, but the Giants were the team to win out.
There is this myth that the Giants last year started out really slow and then got "hot" at the end of the season.

This is wrong.

The 2011 Giants started out 3-1 last year, losing an opening day game away at Washington, but then crushed the Eagles, Rams, and won a tough game against the Cardinals away.

After eight games, the Giants were 6-2 last year, with tough wins against the Bills and Patriots as well. They hit a rough patch in the middle of the season, but the fact of the matter is that the Giants clearly showed that they were a very solid team with a good defense *early* in the season.

The same thing goes for other "wild card" teams that got "hot" like the 2010 Packers... they started out 3-1 with some big wins over teams, and only hit some tough stretches in the middle of the year, but clearly proved that they were a quality team *early* in the season.

I'm a big believer that the first four games of the season reveal which teams are Super Bowl contenders and which ones aren't. Of the past 45 Super Bowl Champs:

- Eighteen began the season 4-0, and one (1967 Packers) began the season 3-0-1
- Nineteen began the season 3-1, and one (1974 Steelers) began the season 2-1-1
- Five teams (2007 Giants, 2003 Patriots, 1993 Cowboys, 1981 49ers, and 1980 49ers) began the season 2-2
- One team (2001 Patriots) began the season 1-3
- None of the Super Bowl winners ever began the season 0-4

So if we look back at this, we see that more than 86% of the Super Bowl winners of the past 45 years began the season with *one loss or fewer* in the first four weeks of the season.

The Super Bowl champ in 2012 will more than likely be one of the teams that started out 3-1 or 4-0: the Falcons, Eagles, Bears, 49ers, Vikings, Cardinals, Ravens, Texans, Bengals, or Chargers.

The Steelers stand an *outside* shot with a 2-2 record, but it's highly unlikely.

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The Steelers lost to the Raiders and the Broncos. They've only beaten the Jets and the Eagles. Okay, I see your point, but it's how they've looked. This is an offensive driven league. The Steelers, offensively, look like they will have the best offense in the NFL by years end. The numbers might not show it, but the kind of offense they run with the short passing game... it's almost impossible to stop. They only stop themselves with dropped passes or missed assignments or penalties, but they still manage to overcome them most of the time.
Impossible to stop? They were limited to 16 points at home vs. an average or only slightly above-average Eagles defense.

And you can't take "drops" or "missed assignments" out of your calculations. That's all part of the game. Sometimes a ball is dropped because the QB was under pressure from a lineman and didn't throw a clean pass to the WR. That's all part of the game. You can't just assume that the WR will catch that ball if you do it all over again.

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The most glaring thing about this offense compared to years past... the number of costly turnovers and sacks have decreased... they only lost to Oakland because they couldn't hold onto the ball. I don't think that is going to be a trend. If they hold onto the ball, they win that game without much of a problem, and their sitting 3-1 with a three game winning streak and no one complains too much.
Again, you can't assume that WRs will "hold on to the ball" in the future. It's all part of the game. WRs sometimes drop the ball because they look over their shouluder and see a safety coming. Or they drop the ball because the QB didn't throw a clean pass because he was under pressure in the pocket. Or they drop the ball because they simply don't have great hands. It's all part of the game. Just because a play looks like it *should* be a completion doesn't mean that it always will be.

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But the Steelers have only given up 4 sacks in their last 3 games. The offensive line is playing better and better. They just shut out the Eagles and I thought that was a big test, which they passed with flying colors.
The reason they shut out the Eagles because the Steelers offensive coordinator was so afraid of the Eagles defensive line that they max-protected on almost every snap, and only allowed Ben to throw 3-step and 5-step drop passes, and they NEVER threw a pass in which Ben turned his back to the defensive line.

And it shows in the final stat line: Ben threw 21/37 passes for a paltry 207 yards and no TDs. He was dinking and dunking his way through the entire game. They sacrificed any long explosive plays for more pocket security and quick-passing game, and limited themselves offensively (16 points total). If the Eagles had scored more points, the Steelers' short-passing game and max-protect schemes would have probably cost them the ability to put up enough points to win the game, because if they went to a deep-passing mode in that game, the Eagles defensive line would have put more pressure on him.

It's obvious that the Steelers don't have much faith in their offensive line.

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Then the defense... Should there be concern in Pittsburgh? Yes. This team can't create turnovers. This is nothing new. They have less than nothing in the secondary outside of Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu (when's he in there). Ike Taylor has been declining for the last three years. He has gotten abused on the big stages against Demaryius Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald (Super Bowl). I think he knows that. He's not the same player he once was, and he doesn't ever play the ball when it's in the air. Plus he has some of the worst hands in the NFL. They have no depth at CB. None of those guys do a damn thing on the field.
And you can basically count Polamalu out for the entire season. He is jsut too injury-riddled at this point.

And I don't need to tell you that without Polamalu, their defense is very average.

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The font 3 aren't elite players anymore either. Ziggy Hood was a terrible draft pick in round 1. If they took him in round 2 it might have been a reach (probably not, but...). Cam Heyward? He hasn't done much of anything. Casey Hampton has been in the league forever. He's not a dominant presence anymore. Still playing well, but not nearly the same. Brett Keisel might not be starter material anymore. Even though he might be their best DL. I haven't focused on Steve McLendon to see if he's going to be a guy that comes out of nowhere and outplays these high profile prospects.

So the front 3 and the secondary... that's their problem. Their LBs are probably the best in football, but they're banged up at the one position they can't afford to be late in the season. Lawrence Timmons is an about as good as any ILB in the NFL right now. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison... they're two of the best. They just got to get onto the field. And they have a much better defense when both of those guys are out there, which I fully expect as the season goes along.

You can't project what injuries are going to take place, but if the Steelers stay healthy at LB, OL and Troy Polamalu... I like their chances as much as anyone.

You can't count on all these injured players. That's just craziness. It's one thing to count on healthy players and hope they don't get injured, but it's another thing to count on ALREADY INJURED players and say "well, if they somehow all miraculously become healthy again, then we stand a chance."

And even if the majority of those players stay healthy, again, they just don't have enough talent on offensive line to maintain a top-5 offense, nor they have enough talent on defensive line and in the secondary to maintain even a top-10 defense.
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Old 10-10-2012, 12:25 PM    (permalink
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I think Houston certainly has a shot to make it to the Superbowl, but Schaub is going to have to prove he's up to it. Right now I'm still expecting the Pats to come out of the AFC. Brady with a running game, those TEs and Welker is an offense that will put points on the board, even against Houston, and the defense added some quality talent to a unit that were decent enough last year to not prevent them from going to the Superbowl. Still not a great unit, but in a one n done environment they can do enough for Brady to make it work.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 10-10-2012, 12:29 PM    (permalink
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Why wouldn't 20 points be enough for the Pats to squeak past the Texans? Andre's slowing down, their OL isn't dominant like last season, meaning the running game isn't dominant like last season, and Schaub is a guy who's still never shown he can come through in the big moments as he has yet to play in a big moment in his career. The Texans Defense is monsterous, but the offense doesn't scare me, and I could actually see any of the elite QBs in the AFC beating them in the playoffs, Brady, Big Ben or Peyton.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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