Is Kiper Completely Out of Touch with the NFL Draft At This Point?

[Matthew Jones]

I won't post a link because it's against the rules, but let's highlight some aspects of Kiper's insane mock draft:

1. Montee Ball is a first round pick
2. 24-year old Florida State right tackle Menelik Watson is in the first round
3. Keenan Allen is the third receiver drafted (#27 overall)
4. Kevin Minter and Margus Hunt are in the first round
5. No quarterbacks are drafted in the first round

That doesn't even include some of the horrible schematic fits included in the mock. Is it time for Mel to retire? At this point, he seems to have no ability to evaluate prospects or provide logical mock drafts.

[Brothgar]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

I won't post a link because it's against the rules, but let's highlight some aspects of Kiper's insane mock draft:

1. Montee Ball is a first round pick
2. 24-year old Florida State right tackle Menelik Watson is in the first round
3. Keenan Allen is the third receiver drafted (#27 overall)
4. Kevin Minter and Margus Hunt are in the first round
5. No quarterbacks are drafted in the first round

That doesn't even include some of the horrible schematic fits included in the mock. Is it time for Mel to retire? At this point, he seems to have no ability to evaluate prospects or provide logical mock drafts.

Meh its a first mock draft I too often get all my crazies out with the first one. Hell even all the head coaching vacancies aren't even filled.

[jrdrylie]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

I won't post a link because it's against the rules, but let's highlight some aspects of Kiper's insane mock draft:

1. Montee Ball is a first round pick
2. 24-year old Florida State right tackle Menelik Watson is in the first round
3. Keenan Allen is the third receiver drafted (#27 overall)
4. Kevin Minter and Margus Hunt are in the first round
5. No quarterbacks are drafted in the first round

That doesn't even include some of the horrible schematic fits included in the mock. Is it time for Mel to retire? At this point, he seems to have no ability to evaluate prospects or provide logical mock drafts.

1. Ha ha ha ha
2. What?
3. I could actually see that. We are hearing more and more that Patterson is going to be the top receiever. Williams, Hopkins, Hunter, or even Austin could conceivably jump Allen.
4. I wouldn't be shocked if Minter went first round. And a team could fall in love with Hunt's size, speed, and upside to take him late first.
5. Hasn't happened since 1996. Unless NFL rules drstically change, there will never be another draft without a QB round one.

[SuperPacker]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

I won't post a link because it's against the rules, but let's highlight some aspects of Kiper's insane mock draft:

1. Montee Ball is a first round pick
2. 24-year old Florida State right tackle Menelik Watson is in the first round
3. Keenan Allen is the third receiver drafted (#27 overall)
4. Kevin Minter and Margus Hunt are in the first round
5. No quarterbacks are drafted in the first round

That doesn't even include some of the horrible schematic fits included in the mock. Is it time for Mel to retire? At this point, he seems to have no ability to evaluate prospects or provide logical mock drafts.

I don't have a problem with 2, 3 and 4.

Also:

[Halsey]

I haven't seen his latest mock, but have felt for a while that Mel isn't as good of a Draft analyzer as he used to be. He's still interesting to listen to, but I don't have a lot of confidence in his opinions.

[draftguru151]

Most of his stuff before the draft (or at least closer to it) is to hype up certain guys or ideas. It's generally his thoughts on guys more than what he actually sees. So when a guy like Hunt starts flying up boards (like he will), Kiper can point to him having him high way back when.

[niel89]

Originally Posted by draftguru151

Most of his stuff before the draft (or at least closer to it) is to hype up certain guys or ideas. It's generally his thoughts on guys more than what he actually sees. So when a guy like Hunt starts flying up boards (like he will), Kiper can point to him having him high way back when.

This. Kipers early stuff is just to be different and to promote certain guys. Closer to draft time he will do a real one.

[Matthew Jones]

Originally Posted by niel89

This. Kipers early stuff is just to be different and to promote certain guys. Closer to draft time he will do a real one.

This may be true, but if someone's been promulgating a bunch of ridiculous information for months, why would anyone put stock into their final prediction?

[descendency]

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones

This may be true, but if someone's been promulgating a bunch of ridiculous information for months, why would anyone put stock into their final prediction?

ESPN has been doing it for years. It's the entire sports journalism business model.

[vidae]

In a word: yes.

[Forenci]

Haha, I know people have a love affair with Mel Kiper but I've always found him to be a bit of a doofus. People hold onto their love for him and his insanity because they're fond of growing up watching the draft with him there, but I'm not much of a fan.

How people can still watch ESPN coverage over NFL Network coverage of the draft is beyond me. Rich Eisen alone makes it worth while.

[vidae]

Originally Posted by Forenci

How people can still watch ESPN coverage over NFL Network coverage of the draft is beyond me. Rich Eisen alone makes it worth while.

Gotta agree here. I'm a big Mayock fan, I'm a big Charles Davis fan, and Rich Eisen rules. I haven't watched the ESPN broadcast since NFLN started theirs, and I have no desire to go back.

[Forenci]

Agreed. I like Charles and Mayock. Even if you don't like Mayock his knowledge of players is pretty damn impressive.

NFL Network is much more fun and informative to watch. The main things I hate about being in school right now is draft days always fall on finals for me so I haven't been able to watch it like I normally do. Makes me a sad panda.

[bigbuc]

It's his first mock. All mocks are jokes right now!

[D-Unit]

His early mocks mostly reflect guys who he thinks will see their stocks soar. That way he can the credit for noticing them first. Menelik Watson is the perfect example. He could end up being the Tyron Smith of this draft.

[Unbiased]

I have no problem with a weird mock in January. And it's only weird to us dummies who watch Youtube videos and pretend that we know enough about the draft to praise or laugh at picks.

[Babylon]

Curious to what ever happened to rule #14 in here. Thou shalt not say anything bad about Mel.

[Cigaro]

3 and 4 sound completely reasonable, and although I seriously doubt 2, there is some potential of this happening.

[PossibleCabbage]

I think, honestly, at ESPN these days Mel Kiper is more of a brand than an analyst. ESPN doesn't do much in the way of "analysis" these days period full stop, anyway.

[Don Vito]

Mel is a character. He is a fun personality for the draft, but there was some insanity in that mock. I am not going to go into too much detail because it is insider, but other ridiculous parts of that mock included:

-Saying Ogletree was the best player on the field in the SECCG against Bama.
-Joeckel #1 to the Chiefs. He might be the best player in the draft but it is insanity and he should know that.
-Saying he has heard people compare Werner to JJ Watt, insinuating that there might be truth to it.
-Chance Warmack #7 to Arizona. Great player, but they don't have the luxury of drafting a guard there. Right?

[Shane P. Hallam]

Originally Posted by Don Vito

Mel is a character. He is a fun personality for the draft, but there was some insanity in that mock. I am not going to go into too much detail because it is insider, but other ridiculous parts of that mock included:

-Saying Ogletree was the best player on the field in the SECCG against Bama.
-Joeckel #1 to the Chiefs. He might be the best player in the draft but it is insanity and he should know that.
-Saying he has heard people compare Werner to JJ Watt, insinuating that there might be truth to it.
-Chance Warmack #7 to Arizona. Great player, but they don't have the luxury of drafting a guard there. Right?

I don't see anything you said as that inflammatory or ridiculous. Not popular opinion perhaps, but all 4 of those might not be incorrect. And it is early January, lots to change and manipulate.

I give Kiper a hell of a lot of credit for what he did for the draft and give him a ton of credit to not just take it easy and spout popular platitudes about players and mock/rank as such. He still goes outside the box, and I don't think that should be ridiculed. I'd much rather read a unique mock than the usual picks for every team that is barely right by the end of it. Just my opinion, and if you look at his early January mock and April mock they are NOTHING alike. That doesn't make him out of touch, that shows change and more information.

[Don Vito]

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam

I don't see anything you said as that inflammatory or ridiculous. Not popular opinion perhaps, but all 4 of those might not be incorrect. And it is early January, lots to change and manipulate.

I give Kiper a hell of a lot of credit for what he did for the draft and give him a ton of credit to not just take it easy and spout popular platitudes about players and mock/rank as such. He still goes outside the box, and I don't think that should be ridiculed. I'd much rather read a unique mock than the usual picks for every team that is barely right by the end of it. Just my opinion, and if you look at his early January mock and April mock they are NOTHING alike. That doesn't make him out of touch, that shows change and more information.

The Warmack as he is a great player and would fit a need, but that is kind of a luxury pick. Not flaming that one so much but he said it himself, a guard hasn't been picked in the top 10 since 1997. I am not saying it won't happen this year, but I don't think it will be by a team like Arizona that has a lot of other needs. Correct me if I am wrong but every QB is on the board when the Cards pick Warmack. I understand some people think Kolb will pan out or be back, but don't you think if every QB is on the board AZ would take one? At this stage of the process I certainly do.



I respect him bringing publicity to the draft as well. I don't dislike Mel at all and I appreciate peple who are willing to go against the grain, but I just found some of those statements to be off.

I like Alec Ogletree more than most, but he was not the best player on the field during the SECCG. He had that return that showed off his crazy speed for his size, but he did not have that great of a game as far as being a linebacker goes. Playing ILB against Bama is no easy task as we have seen a few times this year, but using that as a handicap doesn't bump his performance up to being the best player in the game. Not even close. He showed off some impressive long speed and had an OK game but he was simply not the most impressive player in that game.

The Joeckel selection doesn't make sense because of Brandon Albert being there and the other linemen they have invested high picks in, which kind of makes moving him to another position stupid. It doesn't make sense for the Chiefs to do that. Maybe if Kiper put a note in there saying "I don't think Brandon Albert will be back next year" or something like that, maybe then it would make some sense as far as the mock is concerned (not for the Chiefs, don't worry KC fans) but he didn't.

Werner to JJ Watt? Sure, OK, if you must then go with that comparison. They both can get to the QB but they are very different players besides that.

[Iamcanadian]

IMO all draft gurus follow a pattern in their mocks, early in the season many give their best shots at predicting the draft based on what they have seen. They follow this up under the pressure to make changes to keep their followers interested plus the added facts of how prospects season's are progressing during the college season, but they never give us their final tally until the analysts on NFL Network and NFL.com start in analyzing prospects.

They are all aware that these analysts have access to scouts and GM's throughout the league, something they only have minimal access to. The scouts and GM's have security forces to investigate every detail of a prospects career and health which we have no access to except from rumours.
Once the NFL Network and the NFL.com analysts post their top 25 or top 50, the rankings of all gurus suddenly are dramatically rearranged whether it is Kiper, Scott or any other service.

Even then, pretty much all gurus will keep their final board secret right up till the bitter end, they give us hints but their jobs and profits depend on keeping us interested in their product so we will continue to come to their sites and pay any fees that are required. To accomplish this, their mocks will change every time to give their followers something to argue about.

The last week before the draft, they will finally give us a true picture of what they think and that is the only list you can really judge them on.
To judge Kiper on what he posts today in his mock is ridiculous, it doesn't represent what he really believes, it is just put out to keep his customers coming back for more. Kiper is successful because over the years, he has found this formula works and he isn't going to change it anytime soon.

[AntoinCD]

Originally Posted by Don Vito

Mel is a character. He is a fun personality for the draft, but there was some insanity in that mock. I am not going to go into too much detail because it is insider, but other ridiculous parts of that mock included:

-Saying Ogletree was the best player on the field in the SECCG against Bama.
-Joeckel #1 to the Chiefs. He might be the best player in the draft but it is insanity and he should know that.
-Saying he has heard people compare Werner to JJ Watt, insinuating that there might be truth to it.
-Chance Warmack #7 to Arizona. Great player, but they don't have the luxury of drafting a guard there. Right?

I agree that Kiper is there because he's Mel Kiper, and don't shoot me for this but I think McShay is a much better analyst than him now, however, a few of those things aren't that off the ball.

I disagree about Ogletree but it's not as though he's a scrub.

A lot of people have talked about Joeckel as the top pick. It all depends on KC. If they don't go QB (a mistake IMO) then they likely will go Joeckel.

I don't compare Werner to Watt and this is really the only one I strongly disagree with because they are two completely different players. But hey, they are white so the comparison is apt

Warmack to Arizona could make sense if Joeckel and Fisher are off the board which could well happen, especially if Geno is also gone. Would it be a reach for a OG? Probably but still not a horrendous thing.


I simply don't like Kiper that much anymore because there are so many better guys than him, plus he gets the added bonus of all this insider information that he passes off as his own

[Forenci]

Originally Posted by D-Unit

His early mocks mostly reflect guys who he thinks will see their stocks soar. That way he can the credit for noticing them first. Menelik Watson is the perfect example. He could end up being the Tyron Smith of this draft.

I just disagree. This is a mock draft. This is what you THINK will happen on draft day. This isn't overall player rankings. Just because you think someone will be good or is good doesn't mean you should mock him at that spot. It's what is realistic right now.

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam

I don't see anything you said as that inflammatory or ridiculous. Not popular opinion perhaps, but all 4 of those might not be incorrect. And it is early January, lots to change and manipulate.

I give Kiper a hell of a lot of credit for what he did for the draft and give him a ton of credit to not just take it easy and spout popular platitudes about players and mock/rank as such. He still goes outside the box, and I don't think that should be ridiculed. I'd much rather read a unique mock than the usual picks for every team that is barely right by the end of it. Just my opinion, and if you look at his early January mock and April mock they are NOTHING alike. That doesn't make him out of touch, that shows change and more information.

So basically he's really uninformed at the beginning and then becomes slightly more informed? I just don't get how everyone gives Kiper a pass. Actually I do get it. It's mainly sentiment and loving his goofy hair and personality.

When I look at a mock, I don't mind their being some different things. I don't want a top 32 overall ranking as my mock draft because that's not how it works. But you can't honestly look at this mock and say it's anything close to resembling a potential draft day outcome?

And he changes it because of how stupid his initial mock draft is. Compare others. Do their mock drafts change a bit from now until April? Of course. But it's not overwhelmingly so like Kipers.