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Old 05-08-2008, 05:32 PM    (permalink
DoWnThEfiElD
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When I watch him, i see a brett favre type gun-slinger. I don't ever see him being mechanically sound as Manning, but I see him being about to make plays like Favre. With that obviously being a best case senario for him.

He is probably one of my favorite prospects in a while, because given the right system and people around him, I think the sky is the limit for how good he can be.
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Old 05-08-2008, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by sodar21 View Post
Is he a better prospect than Chad Henne was heading into his junior season?
yes, Henne was never a #1 overall type prospect.
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Old 05-08-2008, 07:25 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Yatta! View Post
Atm I would say that a lot of the hype is due to a very poor senior class but he has all the tools you look for. If he performs as expected this year he'll be the top QB, he'll get drafted in the top 3 imo.
Same thing with Matt Ryan, IMO.
And downthefield, are you talking bout henne or stafford?
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Old 05-08-2008, 10:58 PM    (permalink
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If Stafford comes out, he has a chance at being at the top of the QB board. Certainly, as of now, this is based partially on the combination of potential, position, and a weak class, because despite all the accolades, the kid is still raw. That said, if he takes big leaps forward this year in terms of consistency, then we might be talking a year later about a very deserving top of the draft QB talent.

I will say this - at this point in time, I think Stafford is a better QB talent than Tim Tebow. To what degree, well, that's hard for me to say, but I think it's by a recognizable amount in my head right now (put it this way, on a random scale of 100(this is just to demonstrate the difference in my mind), I would put Stafford at, say, an 80, and Tebow at say, a 70 in terms of Qb'ing ability). Now, Tebow is an awesome physical talent, something that will definitely intrigue, and if he takes strides forward, as past QB's in Urban's system have with additional time, then he could very well end up ahead.
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Old 05-08-2008, 11:16 PM    (permalink
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He's a very good prospect, and he has the tools. I have two problems with him from what I've seen of him; both have to do with his footwork. Firstly, he sets up too slow at times. He needs to get quicker dropping back. The second is that his footwork often breaks down under pressure. He tends to throw off his back foot a lot. There are other issues that you'd expect from a Sophomore QB: decision making, etc. That will settle itself in time, I believe. He'll be a fantastic prospect.
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Old 05-09-2008, 10:05 AM    (permalink
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Honestly the only thing I really know about him is that he went to Highland Park HS which is relatively close to my hometown about 30-40 mins probably. I know he had a great HS career but HP is an extremely wealthly and affluent community. I know it's unfair but I have to question any kids toughness that comes from that kind of environment. I just wonder if he'd have that burning desire to succeed in the NFL as opposed to a relatively poor kid from the ghetto. Having said that though I realize that that's really an unfair stereotype and he could in fact be incredibly tough and I hope he succeeds in the NFL.
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Old 05-09-2008, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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Having said that though I realize that that's really an unfair stereotype and he could in fact be incredibly tough and I hope he succeeds in the NFL.
Then why bother saying it?
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Old 05-09-2008, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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Then why bother saying it?
I don't know it's just a stupid theory I have that's got no real evidence lol. I'm sorry if you're from that area and offended that was certainly not my intent.
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Old 05-09-2008, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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Interesting point, I can't see a first round senior QB atm but I think Painter/Harper/Cantwell could sneak in if they have good seasons. Which seven are you thinking of?
Tim Tebow, Matthew Stafford, Curtis Painter, Hunter Cantwell, Cullen Harper and possibly Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell.
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Old 05-09-2008, 01:50 PM    (permalink
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Honestly the only thing I really know about him is that he went to Highland Park HS which is relatively close to my hometown about 30-40 mins probably. I know he had a great HS career but HP is an extremely wealthly and affluent community. I know it's unfair but I have to question any kids toughness that comes from that kind of environment. I just wonder if he'd have that burning desire to succeed in the NFL as opposed to a relatively poor kid from the ghetto. Having said that though I realize that that's really an unfair stereotype and he could in fact be incredibly tough and I hope he succeeds in the NFL.
Chris Long was from a wealthy family (obviously) but everyone who knows him swears up and down that he has the desire and works about as hard as anyone and harder than most when it comes to football. Scouts must have thought so too because he was taken #2 overall last month.
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Old 05-09-2008, 01:58 PM    (permalink
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Tim Tebow, Matthew Stafford, Curtis Painter, Hunter Cantwell, Cullen Harper and possibly Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell.
Deep down I know it won't happen but if Beockman developed just an ounce of real pocket presence and chose intelligently when to tuck it and run he could be in that conversation. Physically he's everything you'd want, although he is a tad old.
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Old 05-09-2008, 03:51 PM    (permalink
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Mediocre play? 55.7% average per attempt, 13 yds per comp.,19 tds and 10 ints(that number needs to come down) with average receivers and going against some of the better secondaries in the country. Add to that the fact that they should have played USC in the Rose Bowl for a chance at a top 2 ranking in the country. I'd say way above average all things considered.
That completion percentage is pretty weak, and very important. And that 13 ypc translates into 7.24 yards per attempt. His QB rating was 56th in the nation, his completion percentage was 94th, his ypa was 39th. The completion percentage is the most troubling. If you look at the David Lewin Projection system, for QBs who start 4 years and are early rounders, like Stafford will be, completion percentage is the single most valuable stat for projecting success at the NFL level. Anything below 60% should raise eyebrows.
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Old 05-09-2008, 05:05 PM    (permalink
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Chris Long was from a wealthy family (obviously) but everyone who knows him swears up and down that he has the desire and works about as hard as anyone and harder than most when it comes to football. Scouts must have thought so too because he was taken #2 overall last month.
Although I agree with your general premise that a person's socio-economic background may not be that valuable in assessing their football abilities, Chris Long is a bit of an exception since his father was a football player and one has to imagine that Howie was extremely tough with his sons.
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Old 05-09-2008, 05:07 PM    (permalink
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That completion percentage is pretty weak, and very important. And that 13 ypc translates into 7.24 yards per attempt. His QB rating was 56th in the nation, his completion percentage was 94th, his ypa was 39th. The completion percentage is the most troubling. If you look at the David Lewin Projection system, for QBs who start 4 years and are early rounders, like Stafford will be, completion percentage is the single most valuable stat for projecting success at the NFL level. Anything below 60% should raise eyebrows.
Jay Cutler was at the fringe of 60 both of his years as a starter at Vanderbilt--61% in '04 and 59.1% in '05. Peyton Manning also barely made a 60% completion percentage his senior year at 60.37%. McNabb was at 60.9% his senior year, Eli Manning was at 58%, Palmer was at 58% in 2001 and 54.9% in 2000.

All of these guys have been good to great QBs in the NFL.

The point with college statistics is that you really can't look just at the stats, but also at the system that is run. Spread and spread option offenses are really easy to rack up the completions without actually having to have great accuracy or vision. In a pro style offense, however, you're going to have a tough time getting better than a 60 or 62% completion percentage as we see with Cutler, both Mannings and Palmer.
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Old 05-09-2008, 05:53 PM    (permalink
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I don't know it's just a stupid theory I have that's got no real evidence lol. I'm sorry if you're from that area and offended that was certainly not my intent.
No, I wasn't offended. My parents live in DFW but not the Park Cities. I just think that when you discount all that you just wrote it seems pointless.
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Old 05-09-2008, 06:34 PM    (permalink
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Jay Cutler was at the fringe of 60 both of his years as a starter at Vanderbilt--61% in '04 and 59.1% in '05. Peyton Manning also barely made a 60% completion percentage his senior year at 60.37%. McNabb was at 60.9% his senior year, Eli Manning was at 58%, Palmer was at 58% in 2001 and 54.9% in 2000.

All of these guys have been good to great QBs in the NFL.

The point with college statistics is that you really can't look just at the stats, but also at the system that is run. Spread and spread option offenses are really easy to rack up the completions without actually having to have great accuracy or vision. In a pro style offense, however, you're going to have a tough time getting better than a 60 or 62% completion percentage as we see with Cutler, both Mannings and Palmer.
Have you actually read the Lewin Projection System? The idea is hinged on the assumption that with sufficient game film, scouts can accurately determine weather or not a player has the capacity to be an early round pick. So games started becomes a big factor. Players who start relatively few games tend to have their stock skewed upwards because the scouts haven't seen as much on them, so they get sold on "Upside". This along with completion percentage goes into the projection.

The result is a system that accurately predicted that Peyton Manning would be great, and that Ryan Leaf would be a failure. It's been pretty accurate for the most part.

Those players that you mentioned still had decent career completion percentages in college. Manning completed 62.5%, Palmer 59.1%, Eli Manning was at 60.8%, McNabb at 58.7%, and Cutler was at 57.2% despite being in the whipping boy of the SEC.

Right now, if Stafford weren't to have some sort of breakout year, and came out as a junior, he'd be sitting at a career percentage in the neighborhood of 54%, and only 35 games started. That would put him in the neighborhood of Jake Plummer or Shaun King. He needs to drastically improve his accuracy.
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Old 05-09-2008, 07:19 PM    (permalink
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Have you actually read the Lewin Projection System? The idea is hinged on the assumption that with sufficient game film, scouts can accurately determine weather or not a player has the capacity to be an early round pick. So games started becomes a big factor. Players who start relatively few games tend to have their stock skewed upwards because the scouts haven't seen as much on them, so they get sold on "Upside". This along with completion percentage goes into the projection.

The result is a system that accurately predicted that Peyton Manning would be great, and that Ryan Leaf would be a failure. It's been pretty accurate for the most part.

Those players that you mentioned still had decent career completion percentages in college. Manning completed 62.5%, Palmer 59.1%, Eli Manning was at 60.8%, McNabb at 58.7%, and Cutler was at 57.2% despite being in the whipping boy of the SEC.

Right now, if Stafford weren't to have some sort of breakout year, and came out as a junior, he'd be sitting at a career percentage in the neighborhood of 54%, and only 35 games started. That would put him in the neighborhood of Jake Plummer or Shaun King. He needs to drastically improve his accuracy.
I don't think anyone has said that Stafford, as he is, should be a top draft selection. The idea is that he has the tools, the potential to get it done in the same way that Carson Palmer really stepped up in his final seasons.

By the way, Stafford is also in the SEC playing at Georgia, the conference that is notoriously hard on passers as you mention with Cutler. And comparing Stafford's stats to Cutler's stats at the same time in their careers, they are eerily similar. Cutler's completion percentage through 2 seasons was a stellar 53.8%. He barely hit 7.0 in yards per attempt, and he had a 28:22 TD:INT ratio. Compared to Stafford who has a career completion percentage of 54.5%, 7.0 ypa, 26:23 TD:INT ratio. Palmer, through 2 full seasons, (using the same line) was 55.1/7.18/23:24.

Like I already said, no one is saying that Stafford would be the #1 pick with that kind of production, but he has the tools to overcome and it's not very uncommon for QBs to struggle their first two years--starting as true freshmen--and then finally realize their potential. To quote deangelo21:

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He has some great physical ability and has the chance to put it all together this year with UGA. I see him breaking out this year with his WR corps getting better and moreno doing well as usual.
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If he performs as expected this year he'll be the top QB, he'll get drafted in the top 3 imo.
It all depends on where he's at. He's progressing fine. It's normally in a QB's junior year that it finally starts to come together. He needs to make a jump, but it's not like his career is dead with his last 2 years. He's on track just fine.
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Old 05-09-2008, 07:38 PM    (permalink
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I don't think anyone has said that Stafford, as he is, should be a top draft selection. The idea is that he has the tools, the potential to get it done in the same way that Carson Palmer really stepped up in his final seasons.

By the way, Stafford is also in the SEC playing at Georgia, the conference that is notoriously hard on passers as you mention with Cutler. And comparing Stafford's stats to Cutler's stats at the same time in their careers, they are eerily similar. Cutler's completion percentage through 2 seasons was a stellar 53.8%. He barely hit 7.0 in yards per attempt, and he had a 28:22 TD:INT ratio. Compared to Stafford who has a career completion percentage of 54.5%, 7.0 ypa, 26:23 TD:INT ratio. Palmer, through 2 full seasons, (using the same line) was 55.1/7.18/23:24.

Like I already said, no one is saying that Stafford would be the #1 pick with that kind of production, but he has the tools to overcome and it's not very uncommon for QBs to struggle their first two years--starting as true freshmen--and then finally realize their potential. To quote deangelo21:

It all depends on where he's at. He's progressing fine. It's normally in a QB's junior year that it finally starts to come together. He needs to make a jump, but it's not like his career is dead with his last 2 years. He's on track just fine.
He's on track if he stays, if he jumps early, then it'll be the same situation with most QBs who don't have a lot of game film, they'll get their stock inflated by their potential, but never learn how to play properly. If he stays, and becomes more comfortable in the system, he could be fine. But if he stays, he also runs the risk of scuttling his draft stock by giving scouts a better idea of what he's capable of. I don't trust any QB who comes out early, because they so rarely pan out comparative to those who stayed.

And Cutler and Palmer's initial years are very bad comparisons, Southern Cal in 2000 and 2001 won 11 games total, and Vanderbilt won 11 games total in all four years of the Cutler regime. Georgia on the other hand, has averaged nearly 11 wins a season for the past 6 years. When you factor in the level of talent, Palmer and Cutler were substantially better than Stafford.

It's too early to tell anything about Stafford, aside from that he'll bear watching. But if he leaves after his junior year, he more likely than not, fail in the NFL.
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Old 05-09-2008, 09:05 PM    (permalink
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He still hasn't had a 300 yard game yet.

That being said I think he will do well in the NFL.
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Old 05-09-2008, 09:21 PM    (permalink
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He still hasn't had a 300 yard game yet.

That being said I think he will do well in the NFL.
That tends to happen when you run the ball as much as Georgia does. I wouldn't expect that to change much with Knowshon and Caleb King next season.
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Old 05-09-2008, 10:12 PM    (permalink
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Not a Stafford fan at all. Doesn't seem to have that inate feel for the game, even though he has all of the physical tools to succeed. Not to mention spotty mechanics and very average productivity. Not just productivity as in huge statistics, but averages as well, considering completion percentages, yards per attempt, and touchdown to interception ratios.

I'll take Matt Ryan over him, I'll say that.

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Chad Henne plus two inches. And that is not a knock on him because I think Chad was a great prospect, but it seems these days that unless you are coming from a stupid spread offense your value is lower. I think everyone will talk about what a great prospect he is up until about two months before the draft when these spread qb's start getting all the love for the numbers they put up and then he will fall on draft day.

Example of spread guys who were rose:
Alex Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Matt Ryan, Vince Young, Kevin Kolb

Pro Style QBs who fell:
Aaron Rogers, Brady Quinn, Chad Henne, Matt Leinart, JD Booty, Trent Edwards (i liste him because he got picked after Kolb and Beck).
Matt Ryan did not play in a spread offense. It was a very pro style offense, it just so happened that he threw the ball close to fifty times a game.

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Mediocre play? 55.7% average per attempt, 13 yds per comp.,19 tds and 10 ints(that number needs to come down) with average receivers and going against some of the better secondaries in the country. Add to that the fact that they should have played USC in the Rose Bowl for a chance at a top 2 ranking in the country. I'd say way above average all things considered.
Those stats sound mediocre to me.
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Old 05-09-2008, 11:27 PM    (permalink
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I think he could be the best QB prospect in since Manning and Rivers and that class came out. He is better than Alex Smith and imo Matt Ryan this year.

I also think he is a better QB (When it comes to certain intangibles) than Big Ben.

If he is put into the right system with a decent team around him (existent running game) he can flourish in the NFL
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Old 05-10-2008, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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I think he could be the best QB prospect in since Manning and Rivers and that class came out. He is better than Alex Smith and imo Matt Ryan this year.

I also think he is a better QB (When it comes to certain intangibles) than Big Ben.

If he is put into the right system with a decent team around him (existent running game) he can flourish in the NFL
Kansas City maybe?
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Old 05-10-2008, 12:36 PM    (permalink
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If he went to KC, he would be a starter from day one IMO. Bowe would be an amazing target for him and the run game, he should thrive in a place like KC
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Old 05-10-2008, 12:57 PM    (permalink
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I would welcome him with open arms in KC
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