Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend
I understand that, but I'm also speaking on the public perception as well...Just how alot of people around here assumed Croyle wasn't worth crap because he played bad behind no O line with no LJ, I understand the business side but 1st round QB's can still end up bust, while guys picked later can still be great.
They can, but they're far, far less likely to be great than a first rounder. Here's the thing, especially with QBs, the scouts are actually pretty good at pegging a player, given they have enough game tape of them. The majority of first round QBs who didn't suck had at least 3 seasons worth of starts in college. Between 1998 and 2006, there were 26 QBs taken in the first round, of those, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, and Vince Young, have seen a decent level of sucess, and Aaron Rodgers could make it half.
During that same span, there were 90 QBs drafted in rounds 2-7. Let's count out how many were sucessful by even the most generous margins. Matt Haselback, Brian Griese, Charlie Batch, Aaron Brooks, Tim Rattay, Tom Brady. Marc Bulger, Chris Redman, AJ Feeley, Sage Rosenfels, Quincey Carter, Drew Brees, David Garrard, Seneca Wallace, Chris Simms, Jim Sorgi, Craig Krenzel, Matt Schaub, Derek Anderson, Kyle Orton, Charlie Frye, Bruce Gradowski, Brody Croyle, and Tavaris Jackson. 24 out of 90 went on to be at least somewhat above terrible. How many of those 24 would you take before even the worst of the 12 first rounders who suceeded? Maybe 8?
In the first round, scouts are around 50% on their QB projections, and if they were smart enough to ignore QBs who didn't start very many games in college, despite the measurables, that percentage jumps closer to 80%. Once you leave the first round, you're looking at a less than 30% chance that the QB you get is at least as good as Kyle Orton, and less than a 10% chance that you get a QB better than Aaron Brooks.
Even first round QBs only get 2-4 years to prove themselves, despite the investment in them being exponentially higher than in lower picks.
And the truth of the matter is, you can develop a project QB in practice as much as you like, but no amount of practice can ever develop a project to his maximum ability as fast as actual game time can. If a QB gets the chance to start, and doesn't show himself as a viable starter within 2 seasons, odds are, they aren't going to become a starting quality QB ever. There are a few exceptions, but for the most part, it's a hard rule.
A second round pick is not a major investment, and players who don't demonstrate the ability to play well immediately will be cast aside with an alacrity that demonstrates that lack of investment.