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Old 07-17-2008, 06:51 PM    (permalink
DragonFireKai
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
I for one fail to see the overwhelming evidence that he won't succeed. Is it his rookie season when he was only 21 years old and in a situation where no quarterback could have done well? Is it his second season when he had a decent supporting cast and did reasonably well for a second year player? Or is it last season when he only played 3 games while healthy and had a record of 2-1 and then did horrible when he was playing injured?
QBs who don't find success in their first three seasons starting usually don't have successful careers. If a QB doesn't throw more TDs than INTs, throw for a decent percentage, or throw for good YPG early on, they don't develop. Let's look at recent QBs.

Tom Brady: solid player first season starting
Chad Pennington: Great season during first season starting.
Ben Roethlisberger: Solid season during first season starting.
Derek Anderson: Solid Season during first season starting.
Carson Palmer: Great season during second season starting.
Peyton Manning: Great Season during second season starting.
David Garrard: Good season during second season starting.
Phillip Rivers: good season during first season starting.
Jay Cutler: good season during second season starting.
Tony Romo: Good season during first season starting.
Donovan McNabb: Great season during second season starting.
Eli Manning: Servicable season during second season starting.
Brett Favre: Great season during first season starting.
Jon Kitna: Solid season during first season starting.
Jeff Garcia: Great season during second season starting.
Drew Brees: Great Season during third season starting.
Jake Delhomme: Servicable season during first season starting.
Matt Hasselbeck: Servicable season during second season starting.
Kurt Warner: MVP first season starting.
Daunte Culpepper: great season first season starting.
Marc Bulger: Solid season first season starting.
Steve McNair: Servicable season second season starting.

That's just QBs who were active this season. I await your list of all the many QBs who were terrible for 3 or more years starting.


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You lost a little credibility with that statement because it is just plain not true. When a touchdown is scored the team gets at least 6 points automatically but when an interception is thrown it doesn't always end in points for the other team
Think about it like this. When a QB throws a TD pass, they get credited with a pass of X yards and a TD. Drives that include such plays end in points of the board 100% of the time. What if it was simply a pass of X yards, and the reciever was downed on the one yard line? Drives that include such a play will end with points on the board 90% of the time. That 10% is the value of the TD.

When a QB throws an INT, they're credited with an incomplete and an interception. When a drive includes an interception, it will result in points on the board 0% of the time. If it were simply an incompletion, than the drive would result in points on the board 45% of the time. That 45% is amount of damage an INT does.
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Last edited by DragonFireKai : 07-18-2008 at 05:55 AM.
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Old 07-17-2008, 07:00 PM    (permalink
wicket
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To just pick out one, there are plenty more, you say Peyton had a Great Season during second season starting, but this was a season in which he threw forno less then 28 interceptions, in my world throwing more picks than td's is bad, also he got sacked way to much. Yes he threw for a couple of td's but to call his first season great is bullocks, it becomes good when you take into account he was a rookie, but that is not the point.
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Old 07-17-2008, 07:34 PM    (permalink
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To just pick out one, there are plenty more, you say Peyton had a Great Season during second season starting, but this was a season in which he threw forno less then 28 interceptions, in my world throwing more picks than td's is bad, also he got sacked way to much. .
Wrong. Peyton's second year as a starter he threw for 26 TDs and 15 INTs.
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Old 07-18-2008, 03:27 AM    (permalink
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Wrong. Peyton's second year as a starter he threw for 26 TDs and 15 INTs.
sorry was talking about his first season starting, my bad, also read the post wrong tbh, thought he was talking about first years starting, but his second year was pretty good yeah.
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Old 07-18-2008, 03:38 AM    (permalink
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But i'll pick on his brother then, In my opinion a completion % of under 50 is just plain bad, so are 50% more interceptions than td's, and he barely threw for a thousand yards. If that is servicable than the last two years of smith were also servicable. I am not saying that most qbs start of bad but its not all glory and sunshine for them in the early years usually.
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Old 07-18-2008, 05:54 AM    (permalink
DragonFireKai
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I did botch that one. I meant his second season, thought one thing, typed another. Nice catch, I'll +rep you for that.
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Old 07-18-2008, 05:57 AM    (permalink
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DragonFireKai I'm not going to argue with you to this length anymore. It's quite ridiculous. Your main point is that you don't believe in Alex Smith's capabilities. That's fine. That's your opinion. My main angle is that that I don't know the outcome, and judging from both sides I can't even make a theory based on what I've factored in. And we'll leave it at that. We'll just have to wait until the season comes.
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Old 07-18-2008, 09:10 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by DragonFireKai View Post
QBs who don't find success in their first three seasons starting usually don't have successful careers. If a QB doesn't throw more TDs than INTs, throw for a decent percentage, or throw for good YPG early on, they don't develop. Let's look at recent QBs.

Tom Brady: solid player first season starting
Chad Pennington: Great season during first season starting.
Ben Roethlisberger: Solid season during first season starting.
Derek Anderson: Solid Season during first season starting.
Carson Palmer: Great season during second season starting.
Peyton Manning: Great Season during second season starting.
David Garrard: Good season during second season starting.
Phillip Rivers: good season during first season starting.
Jay Cutler: good season during second season starting.
Tony Romo: Good season during first season starting.
Donovan McNabb: Great season during second season starting.
Eli Manning: Servicable season during second season starting.
Brett Favre: Great season during first season starting.
Jon Kitna: Solid season during first season starting.
Jeff Garcia: Great season during second season starting.
Drew Brees: Great Season during third season starting.
Jake Delhomme: Servicable season during first season starting.
Matt Hasselbeck: Servicable season during second season starting.
Kurt Warner: MVP first season starting.
Daunte Culpepper: great season first season starting.
Marc Bulger: Solid season first season starting.
Steve McNair: Servicable season second season starting.

That's just QBs who were active this season. I await your list of all the many QBs who were terrible for 3 or more years starting.
-Brady was asked to do almost nothing in his first season and is also an all-time great quarterback
-Pennington had two seasons to sit and watch before he even started
-Big Ben was on a pretty solid team and was asked to do next to nothing in his first two season
-Derek Anderson was in a completely different situation
-Palmer had almost the exact same numbers in his first year starting, second season overall, as Smith had in his second season
-Peyton Manning is probably gonna end his career as the greatest QB ever
-Garrard didn't even start until his 5th season
-Rivers didn't start until after two seasons on the bench learning from a great QB
-Cutler was on a reasonably good team with good coaching and a good supporting cast
-Romo didn't start until his third season and had a great supporting cast
-McNabb is one of the best QBs of this generation and I am not comparing Smith to him
-Favre is one of the best QBs ever
-Kitna didn't start until his third season
-Garcia was a 30 year old with tons of experience and a great supporting cast
-Brees sat on the bench his first year, put up very similar numbers to Smith in his second, got worse in his third year, then made the Pro Bowl in his 4th. Smith is going into his 4th season and could still do the same
-Delhomme sat on the bench for two years
-Hasselbeck learned from Brett Favre for two years and still put up worse numbers in his third season than Smith in his second
-Warner already had experience and came to a loaded team
-Culpepper was throwing the ball to Cris Carter and Randy Moss while Smith had Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle. Who did you expect to do better?
-Bulger came into a loaded team and wasn't rushed onto the field
-McNair didn't start until his third year and had worse numbers that year than Smith in his second

Face it, no one, with the exception of Eli Manning, was in a situation even close to Smith's so comparing them to Smith is like comparing apples to oranges.

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Originally Posted by DragonFireKai View Post
Think about it like this. When a QB throws a TD pass, they get credited with a pass of X yards and a TD. Drives that include such plays end in points of the board 100% of the time. What if it was simply a pass of X yards, and the reciever was downed on the one yard line? Drives that include such a play will end with points on the board 90% of the time. That 10% is the value of the TD.

When a QB throws an INT, they're credited with an incomplete and an interception. When a drive includes an interception, it will result in points on the board 0% of the time. If it were simply an incompletion, than the drive would result in points on the board 45% of the time. That 45% is amount of damage an INT does.
For one that doesn't even make sense because the percentages for how often a team scores from the 1 yard line and how often a drive that includes an incompletion are just guesses, not actual statistics. Secondly, that is a horrible way to look at it. The fact is that if your quarterback throws a touchdown you are guaranteed 7 points on the board while the other team will certainly not get any points for it and if your quarterback throws an interception than neither team is guaranteed any points. So throwing a touchdown will always give you a net gain of 7 points while the net gain or loss for an interception varies and at worst it will be a net loss of 7 points.
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Old 07-18-2008, 11:28 AM    (permalink
Ness
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Originally Posted by DragonFireKai View Post
Tom Brady: solid player first season starting
Chad Pennington: Great season during first season starting.
Ben Roethlisberger: Solid season during first season starting.
Derek Anderson: Solid Season during first season starting.
Carson Palmer: Great season during second season starting.
Peyton Manning: Great Season during second season starting.
David Garrard: Good season during second season starting.
Phillip Rivers: good season during first season starting.
Jay Cutler: good season during second season starting.
Tony Romo: Good season during first season starting.
Donovan McNabb: Great season during second season starting.
Eli Manning: Servicable season during second season starting.
Brett Favre: Great season during first season starting.
Jon Kitna: Solid season during first season starting.
Jeff Garcia: Great season during second season starting.
Drew Brees: Great Season during third season starting.
Jake Delhomme: Servicable season during first season starting.
Matt Hasselbeck: Servicable season during second season starting.
Kurt Warner: MVP first season starting.
Daunte Culpepper: great season first season starting.
Marc Bulger: Solid season first season starting.
Steve McNair: Servicable season second season starting.

That's just QBs who were active this season. I await your list of all the many QBs who were terrible for 3 or more years starting.
And thats all totally subjective and opinionated, but clearly not factual. Steve McNair serviceable his second season starting? That really wouldn't fly for me at all. And it doesn't really matter if you want to tweak irrelevant statistics that wouldn't make a huge difference. In my opinion he was a worse passer than Smith was his first three years. You didn't even factor in how old the quarterbacks were, how much experience they had, or what the situation they had with their team was.
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Last edited by Ness : 07-18-2008 at 11:38 AM.
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