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Old 10-23-2008, 05:30 AM    (permalink
UK_Cheesehead
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Although I actually think Philly will win this game, the Falcons with a 9 pt head start is huge, while I don't expect the Falcons' impressive start to the season continue for long, they're no pushovers so I'll go for them on the spread.

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina

I really like the look of Carolina this year, strong on D, have a great 1-2 punch at RB and Delhomme looks good again now and we all know about Smith. The Cardinals should make the playoffs, but I have my concerns with them on the road, and the Panthers at home are formidable. Panthers all day.

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami

Edwards is really stepping up this year, and although the Fins look better than last year, they still have a long way to go, at less than a FG to win on the spread, you HAVE to take the Bills.

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ

It's Kansas City.

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore

The Ravens D is playing lights out right now, and as long as Flacco doesn't turn the ball over I think the Ravens win this game quite comfortably.

St. Louis (+7) @ New England

Can never count out the Pats, even with all these injuries stacking up, in a wide open NFC I can see them sneaking into the playoffs with a wildcard. Been impressed with the Rams lately, but I feel the Pats will have just too much for them at home.

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)

This one all depends on the weather to be honest, if it rains we see Deuce run all day, if it's a nice sunny day it all depends who can out throw each other, I like the Chargers, they are hit and miss so much it's unreal, but last week they were miss, so this week they'll be hit.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas

Bucs D is solid, Dallas are struggling on O now, and their D looks all over the shop, if Garcia plays I like the Bucs alot in this.

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit

It's the Detroit Lions.

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville

After a bad start to the season the Jags have bounced back impressively, I expect them to continue their good run with a Browns side coming to town with no Winslow.

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston

Now although I don't think Cincy will win, I don't think they'll get blown away either, so with a 9.5 pt lead, I'm liking them, they ran the Giants close and should've won, they ran the Cowboys close and probably towards the end should've won, I feel a win is coming for them, it's where and when.

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh

Giants at a +2.5 spread? All day long, although I've tipped the Steelers to win the whole thing, as long as Eli doesn't turn the ball over they win, because that D is going to see a helluva lot of Big Ben and one of those hits could well take it's toll on him.

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran

I like Singletary to pick up his first win here, Seahawks look real bad this year, and with the buzz a team suddenly usually gets after a new coach comes in will see the 49ers take the W.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)

The Titans are one of the best teams in the league at running the ball, and the Colts are one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run. Simple really.

I'll go for 31 points in the Colts-Titans game.

Think I'll be putting these on at my own bookies at about 12/13 fold just incase the majority (for a change lol) actually come in.
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Old 10-23-2008, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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Alright, getting down to the end, I'll be setting these tonight and posting what the final tallies and what I went with are! Any clear majorities, I'll be trusting all of you. Any of them close, I've been reading all your analysis, and I'll be choosing based on those!
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Old 10-23-2008, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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I heard on ESPN.com somewhere you can win 1 Million if you pick 25 games in a row right. I dont know exactly how it works but I was listening to ESPN Radio and they said it. With how unpredectable the NFL is it will be pretty impossible though.

I think the keyword is "Streak" on espn.com ... not 100% sure if i remember though.
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Old 10-23-2008, 06:56 PM    (permalink
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Break downs:

Atlanta: 13
Philly: 3

Pretty clear cut, I'm going Falcons

Arizona: 6
Carolina: 10

One of the toughest games, I'm going with the majority. I underrate Carolina, but I do love the Cards right now. Carolina is the pick.

Buffalo: 15

Miami: 1

Pretty clear

Kansas City: 5

NYJ: 11

The last time KC got so many points at home was against Denver, but I'll stick with the majority. Though, some big home dogs

Oakland: 4

Baltimore: 12

Another one I may have gone the other way, but we'll go with the Baltimore D

St. Louis: 5

New England: 11

Will St. Louis' magic run end? You all think so.

San Diego: 10

New Orleans: 6

Closer, but no Bush and San Diego having the adjustment time to Europe, all majority so far!

Tampa Bay: 11

Dallas: 5

TB hot and getting points against a cold Dallas team. You guys like it!

Cleveland: 5

Jacksonville: 11

I guess I missed Jacksonville getting good, but it seems they have. We'll see if the secondary can stop DA + Braylon, I'll pick Jacksonville

Washington: 16

Detroit: 0

Yeah.

Cincinnati: 8

Houston: 9

A close match, so I was pondering going against the grain. Can Houston beat anyone by 10? It got closer, I'm taking Cinci.

Pittsburgh: 7

NYG: 9

Going with the majority against my Steelers.

Seattle: 3

San Fran: 13

Seattle looks bad, San Fran new coach going to get them going? Going with ya!

Indianapolis: 8

Tennessee: 9

I really do think this is where Peyton steps up, it got closer, I'm going Colts.

Let's hope for 10+ guys!
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Old 10-24-2008, 02:39 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly
Atlanta has played well, but theyíre giving up a ton of points and Philly can score a ton of points. In their 2 road games against stout rush Ds (TBay & Carolina) they lost by more than 9. Take Philly off the bye week Ė at least we know Reidís record off byes.

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina
Tough call here, but Carolinaís D is just rude. Iíd give them the 3 point favorite if it were in AZ, so I see no reason to expect anything less than 6 points as the home team. I like Arizonaís offense better than the Jets. I donít expect Jake to throw 6 TDs, but I wonít be surprised to see the Cards D give up big points in the dreaded East Coast 1pm game.

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami
1.5? Really? Buffalo is a good team. Iím not willing to say the same about Miami. Winning against NE or SD is no longer the great accomplishment it would have been in the 06 & 07 seasons.

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ
It is always difficult to take a 13 point favorite, unless theyíre playing the Chiefs with no LJ. Jets cover.

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore
The Ravens at home. Oakland may make this one a fun game to watch Ė as long as you like low scoring games with subpar QB play. I like the Ravens D to score at least once, which should be all you need in a game that will be field goals by both Os.

St. Louis (+7) @ New England
Um, how late can you enter the picks? If you can wait until you know Jacksonís status I might be tempted to say take the Rams. An established run game that allows for play-action passing is the best way to burn the Pats DBs. With Jackson out itís a Pats win. With him in Iím still tempted to say take the Pats, so I guess Iíll say Pats cover at home.

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe)
Saints. How can the team with the worst pass D be favored against the team with the best pass O?? Laughable.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas
Take Tampa. Romo isnít going to play so Tampaís D will play Barber and force Johnson to win with his arm. See how silly that sounds when it is written out like that? I canít see any way the Cowboys win this one.

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit
How is this one not a double digit spread? Note to the Redskins D Coordinator: double team Calvin every play, even if heís on the sidelines. Take the Skins Ė even if they come out flat Portis will pick it up in the second half, same as every other week.

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville
Jags. Taylor. Milestones. Iím pretty sure you know how I feel about this game.

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston
Houston Texans. Theyíre quite possibly the hottest team in the league right now and the Bengals are in no position to slow them down.

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh
This is a very hard game to call. Aside from their hiccup against the Browns the Giants have been incredible. Pittís D is stingy, and the spread is a classic home team line. Iíd take the Steelers at home b/c Eli has slowed down and so has the Giants sack total.

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran
San Fran. Seattle hasnít been able to stop anybody, and their offense is still a collection of broken pieces.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
Iíll go with Indy. Tennessee is strong, but I think itís safe to expect the youngsters to have the jitters in the national spotlight, and old man Kerry to finally screw up at the worst time. 24 Ė 20 win for the Colts.

Also, feel free to predict the MNF total score (e.g. 35 points, 51 points, etc) as the tiebreaker!
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Old 10-24-2008, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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D'OH !!

posted before reading the whole thread.
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Old 10-24-2008, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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Default Week 8 picks

Hmm, I suppose I'll put my picks in this thread then. And add a comment for JB where necessary.

Eagles over Falcons. I believe Andy Reid has lost only once after a bye week, and that was against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Plus I'm sure the Eagles offense has been working over efficiency in the red zone these last two weeks, so I like them to get the home win. Matt Ryan is going to face more pressure than the Bears delivered - or didn't, as it were. (I like the Eagles to cover as long as the weather holds up, otherwise that could not only limit the Philly passing game, but provide some missed FG opportunities from Akers. He's not a good kicker anymore.)

Panthers over Cardinals. Arizona plays well at home, especially once their offense gets hot. However this is a road game against Carolina's solid defense and balanced offense, so I think their losses on the road continue this week. Travis Laboy is still hurting, which isn't good for their defense, but I think we'll see the return of Anquan Boldin which is very good news. (Would have been nice if the Panthers were favored by 3.5, as I could see them winning by 4. As it is, I'll still take them although Warner and the Cards could make it interesting in potential catch-up mode.)

Bills over Dolphins. Miami will put up a good fight, moreso on offense I think as Pennington can find Camarillo and other receivers in the open zones. However with Trent Edwards delivering accurate passes himself and Buffalo's strong running game led by Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, the Bills are my pick to take this latest game in a great divisional rivalry. (I like the Bills here, even if they win close it's by more than one point.)

Jets over Chiefs. New York could very well be without both Cotchery and Mrs. Pennington, but I have to think the Jets still win this, playing at home and after losing last week. The defense should get this done. (Missing both starting wide receivers would usually trigger cautiousness, but as long as Kris Jenkins continues to clog up the middle, that could result in turnovers from the Immortal Tyler Thigpen at the Meadowlands.)

Ravens over Raiders. Three big reasons: (1) A not-dominant west coast team traveling to the east coast, for a 1 PM EST start to boot; (2) Running the ball is big for the Raiders, however the Ravens shut down the run; and (3) Rex Ryan will probably be motivated to showcase his own defense with his brother on the opposite sideline. (I like the Ravens to cover, I'm not sure the Raiders can keep it as close as the Dolphins did last week.)

Patriots over Rams. St. Louis could use the big plays, turnovers, and touchdowns instead of field goals as they had last week, to get their third straight win over a headline team. I doubt the Patriots will overlook them in any way though, even if their annual match-up against the Colts is looming. (S-Jax being dinged up and possibly missing this game pushes it to the Pats covering imo.)

Saints over Chargers. Very tempted to pick San Diego, on the basis of Rivers passing on the Saints' secondary. But if the Chargers continue to get no pressure on the quarterback and their secondary doesn't live up to its potential, I have to go with the leading MVP in Drew Brees and the rest of the New Orleans squad to win this international showcase. But if the Saints continue to commit their stupid penchant of penalties and turnovers, the Chargers can and will jump on them. (I would think this is a high scoring game, even though neither running game gets going.)

Buccaneers over Cowboys. Dallas also knows the struggle of a defense not getting enough pressure on the opposing quarterback coupled with a struggling secondary. So as much as they need a win to stop their freefall, I think a good Bucs' offensive line can allow Jeff Garcia to make some plays down the field to help get the road win. And I've been meaning to say, from a few comments I made during the offseason here at NFLDC, I underestimated Tampa's defense.

Redskins over Lions. Detroit usually plays better at home defensively, and they will be desperate to get a win given the possibility of 0-16 with their remaining schedule. And maybe it's just me, but the Lions seem to be doing a much better job against the run, however their pass defense is of great concern. Which could mean Jason Campbell finding Cooley and Moss down the field, in addition to Clinton Portis marching on this season. (I like the Redskins to cover, they have an excellent pass defense so they should still limit any garbage time scores from Detroit.)

Jaguars over Browns. I think Cleveland actually has a real chance to win this game, but they've been so inept at times this season, I can't count on them to pull it off. The Jags are hurting at wide receiver, but thankfully for them they still have Matt Jones (never thought I'd be saying that a few months ago) not yet suspended. I don't think Jacksonville's running game has a big day against Shaun Rogers and the rest of the Browns' front seven, but the offense as a whole might do enough if Cleveland's offense continues to struggle and disappoint. (Not sure that the Jags cover the touchdown, it might be a little closer than that even if it's just two field goals.)

Texans over Bengals. Texans play better at home, especially their offense, and in that vein I think they continue their winning ways. Andre Johnson has really awakened the last few weeks, however I think the two primadonna receivers in Cincy can catch some balls and make this closer than some might think. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't look so terrible, as he's getting time and experience as a starter. (9.5 seems a lot, I think the Bengals could keep it closer than that. The Texans couldn't close out the Lions last week, then again all it takes is an additional FG over a 7-point lead.)

Giants over Steelers. Tempted to pick the Steelers at home, but I have a hunch that Big Blue gets some good pressure on Roethlisberger to help them win the game. Plus Santonio Holmes is inactive for being a dope, and Aaron Smith hasn't practiced all week due to a personal matter. The Steelers could definitely use both guys.

Forty-Niners over Seahawks. I wouldn't make this my Eliminator pick or anything, but I think the Niners can win this at home over the struggling Hasselbeck-less Hawks. (I don't like San Fran to cover however, 5 seems too much to me in this division game and with the JTO ready to rock your face and turn the ball over.)

Colts over Titans. Another pair of division rivals squaring off, very familiar and very physical with one another. Those two factors helping to produce four very close games the last two years, and I would expect a similar result this Monday night. Indianapolis' run defense actually comes into this game a bit maligned, having played well against the Ravens (2.7 ypc) and at the Packers (3.3 ypc) the last two weeks, but no doubt one of their greatest challenges awaits in the Titans' offensive line and Chris Johnson plus his TD vulture in White. I have a gut feeling that ball security might come into play for both Titans' runningbacks, the Colts' defense will try to force some turnovers themselves to give their offense additional scoring opportunities and/or shorter fields. The Tennessee crowd will be an even madder and more excited house with the national primetime lights shining, but the Colts usually do a great job of embracing the Monday night stage themselves. I think they pull off the very close victory, leaving everyone to mentally circle the Week 17 rematch.
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Old 10-26-2008, 08:34 PM    (permalink
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Three right. I'm on fire!
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Old 10-26-2008, 08:43 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PACKmanN View Post
Atlanta (+9) @ Philly RIGHT

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina RIGHT

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami WRONG

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ RIGHT

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore RIGHT

St. Louis (+7) @ New England RIGHT

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe) RIGHT

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas WRONG

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit RIGHT

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville WRONG

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston RIGHT

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh RIGHT

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran WRONG

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
9-4, not bad. :)
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Old 10-26-2008, 08:46 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta (+9) @ Philly

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina -WIN

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami - LOSS

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ - LOSS

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore - WIN

St. Louis (+7) @ New England - PUSH

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe) - LOSS

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas - WIN

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit - WIN

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville - LOSS

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston - LOSS

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh - WIN

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran - WIN

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)
6-5-1. Sucks ass week.
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Old 10-27-2008, 09:54 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by PACKmanN View Post
9-4, not bad. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjsunstein View Post
6-5-1. Sucks ass week.
Did I miss something? why are you both counting it as the Chiefs beating the Jets?
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Old 10-27-2008, 10:03 AM    (permalink
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Did I miss something? why are you both counting it as the Chiefs beating the Jets?
the chiefs covered the spread, if u add those +13 points to the chiefs score
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Old 10-27-2008, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Dr. Gonzo is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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I did pretty damn good at 8-3-1. Everyone else = epic fail!
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Old 10-27-2008, 12:45 PM    (permalink
UK_Cheesehead
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Location: Wolverhampton, England
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UK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hairUK_Cheesehead is so wise,  like a miniature Buddha covered with hair
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UK_Cheesehead View Post

Atlanta (+9) @ Philly - WRONG

Arizona (+4.5) @ Carolina - WRONG

Buffalo (-1.5) @ Miami - WRONG

Kansas City (+13) @ NYJ - WRONG

Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore - RIGHT

St. Louis (+7) @ New England - WRONG

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (in Europe) - WRONG

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas - WRONG

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit - RIGHT

Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville - WRONG

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston - WRONG

New York Giants (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh - RIGHT

Seattle (+5) @ San Fran - WRONG

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee (MNF)

I'll go for 31 points in the Colts-Titans game.
LMAO, my record so far is 3-10.

I suck so bad.
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