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Old 02-02-2009, 06:11 PM    (permalink
Brodeur
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Smokescreen....
Not really any point to a smokescreen this early, especially considering there's no chance in hell anyone trades for the pick.
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Old 02-02-2009, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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I never understood the concept behind a smokescreen. Why not just keep your mouth shut all together?
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Old 02-02-2009, 08:02 PM    (permalink
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I love that you brought in young guys who could develop with the team but I think ties with our coaches likely won't be a plus. Linehan was terrible as a HC so why would his players feel like following him. It isn't likely to be of much help. Then there is the ties to our community. Unfortunately it is a 2 edged sword as it would also include the knowledge of how bad a team we currently are.
Signing players from winning teams is a tough call. How many players would like to go from a contender to play for the laughing stock of the NFL. Not too many IMO. I do think you time frame is about right but I think any success in FA will only come after Detroit establishes that they are going in the right direction maybe a year or 2 from now, then players will want to come to Detroit to be a part of a team on the way up. Right now, I think only paying a FA ridiculous amounts of money will get a FA to come here and most likely these FA 's won't be interested or put out to be a champion.
I think we would be better served to put off signing a lot of FA's until we are looking more like a place worth signing on to. Then we we'll look like a franchise that can attract the right type of FA personnel.
I watched Cleveland rebuild from a disaster like ours after the Butch Davis era and their GM Savage really didn't go after much in the way of FA's in year 1 concentrating on young totally unproven players who he believed had talent and would play hard because they still had a lot to prove so they could move into a better pay range. In year 2, he pretty well followed the same route and they improved immensely to a 10 -6 record. Then in year 3, he went whole hog and brought in expensive FA's to fill in around the core of young players he had developed and these types of FA's were willing to go to Cleveland because they saw a chance to be part of a winning team.
The toughest schedule in the NFL unfortunately side railed them and cost Savage his job but I think his plan had real merit but his owner had zero patience. He left Cleveland in a pretty strong position to become a serious playoff contender for years to come.

You can forget about any hope for Stanton. Look who drafted him and where he was drafted??? Round 2 QB picks have about a 6% chance at success if you examine the last 15 drafts and when you add in that Matt Millen wanted Stanton I'd say that equates to a zero chance he is anything. You'd have to be pretty unrealistic to think Stanton has any kind of a shot especially since the coaching staff didn't think enough of him to give him any kind of shot during an 0-16 season.

Finally there is the draft. I only wish we could get a draft like that but again realistically Maualuga is extremely doubtful to be there at #20, I'd only give Mack about a 50 % chance of being around after round 1. Hard to judge yet where the others are projected to go.

Hope I wasn't too harsh in my criticism,

I respect your opinions, but I have to admit I differ in my belief of players willing to come here. In another thread someone mentioned the Tigers and Pudge coming here after one of the worst seasons in MLB history, but yet they got a absolute superstar to come here. Yes, they admittedly had to pay more than market value, and that is what we would be required to do for Fat Albert.

As for players from the area, most kids that are form Detroit were that on there hearts as a badge of honor. Just because we went 0-16 doesnt mean that these local kids dont want to come back. Perfect example is Larry Footsm he's a Detroit kid, played college ball at UM, won 2 superbowls, is 1 yr away from a BIG payday and he says that he wants to come back here to play for the Lions. With our terrible economy, highest enemployment and foreclosure rates in the nation, a lot of these players that grew up here want to come back and help the Lions out even more because it's Detroit Pride. Additionally, the local ties with players aren't players that are top 1 or 2 available at their positions rather more role type players that would salivate at the prospects of cashing in on a slightly larger than market value for a few seasons, and then once they have their millions then they'll concentrate more on getting with a winning team in hopes of getting a ring.

Linehan was respected by his players for a few seasons before the wheel fell off this year, yet a few of the players still backed him even though they also liked Haslett. IMO, that tie will contribute to our ability to scout these guys, if the new staff like them and want them here then they probably had a decent relationship with them before, for example look at how Martz brought a few of the Rams with him within the first couple of years here.

Draft wise, yeah I know the chance of my picks being available at the spots I drafted them are about 50/50, but in all honesty until we get the results of the combine/senior days and read more information of how these players are getting rated after interviews and private workouts and such, the only lock for a player being available is Stafford, or anybody else, at #1.

I really struggled with who was gonna be available at our spots because there are infnite possibilities that can play out so it was just my best guess at where we stand now. Maybe to be safe I should have said Lauranitis at #20 and Levitre at #33 because that would almost assure that those 2 will be there at those spots, but I didnt want the knock for loosing value adn player x would be such a better value at that spot and so on.
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Old 02-02-2009, 08:08 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Maybe Next Year Millen2 View Post
I watched Cleveland rebuild from a disaster like ours after the Butch Davis era and their GM Savage really didn't go after much in the way of FA's in year 1 concentrating on young totally unproven players who he believed had talent and would play hard because they still had a lot to prove so they could move into a better pay range. In year 2, he pretty well followed the same route and they improved immensely to a 10 -6 record. Then in year 3, he went whole hog and brought in expensive FA's to fill in around the core of young players he had developed and these types of FA's were willing to go to Cleveland because they saw a chance to be part of a winning team.
The toughest schedule in the NFL unfortunately side railed them and cost Savage his job but I think his plan had real merit but his owner had zero patience. He left Cleveland in a pretty strong position to become a serious playoff contender for years to come.
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Thats not entirely correct on Savage. Savage started in 2005 not 2006. Did nothing in free agency and finished 6-10 in 2005. Then in 2006, he went crazy in free agency and gave big contracts to LeCharles Bentley,Kevin Shaffer and Willie McGinest(Romeo guy). They got worse and went to 4-12(bad QB play from Charlie Frye and DA barely played and was average at best). 2007 they went back into free agency with Steinbach(which paid off) and Jamal Lewis which paid off. Plus they drafted Joe Thomas and their QB Derek Anderson had one heck of a year(althought that was a one year wonder). 2008, Savage continue but not with free agency but trades giving up important draft picks and also gave up a pick for Brady Quinn in the prior draft. Derek Anderson fizzled, Quinn looked promising but got hurt and then QB play suffered. Cleveland got better from QB play and better Oline and also differences in the schedule in 2007. Plus Baltimore had a down year in 2007 which greatly affects Cleveland.

Savage got fired because Derek Anderson was only a flash in the pan and he gave up too many draft picks with worse results. It all stems back to QB play for Cleveland with mediocre to poor defenses.

Detroit has the money and the schedule but we shouldn't go the Cleveland route and 0-16 is a little different than a 6-10 finish but not much different than a 4-12 team when they got Steinbach. We could get one big free agent. As long as their talented and fit what Schwartz or Schwartz/Linehan want, then at least try and get one. A Jason Brown or Karlos Dansby or Dunta Robinson makes us a better team no matter what. Well better in theory at least.

IMO, if we are gonna try to emulate a team on how to rebuild why not look at the Dolphins? They brought in about 30 Cowboys, previous relationship between players and coaches, and then tried to build from the trenches out. They brought in hardnosed players, had a roster turnover of something like 70% and they had to slightly overspend to get a couple of guys they hadn't worked with, Wilford and Smiley. Then in the draft they got their LT cornerstone and then went with a 2nd round quarterback while also eyeing bringing in a vet to help manage the game and mentor the young guy.
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Old 02-03-2009, 04:51 AM    (permalink
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IMO, if we are gonna try to emulate a team on how to rebuild why not look at the Dolphins? They brought in about 30 Cowboys, previous relationship between players and coaches, and then tried to build from the trenches out. They brought in hardnosed players, had a roster turnover of something like 70% and they had to slightly overspend to get a couple of guys they hadn't worked with, Wilford and Smiley. Then in the draft they got their LT cornerstone and then went with a 2nd round quarterback while also eyeing bringing in a vet to help manage the game and mentor the young guy.
Well we brought in about 30 Tampa Bay Bucs from what had been a perennial playoff team. The guys we've been bringing in lately have also supposedly been hard nosed players as that type of player was a 'Marinelli Guy.' We also brought in a vet QB as well as drafting one in the 2nd.

I agree the Fins are an amazing success story, but in the end I don't think anyone is confusing Mayhew & Lewand for Bill Parcells. I'm still hoping we do follow his idea of selecting an OT over a QB though.
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Old 02-03-2009, 09:22 AM    (permalink
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IMO, if we are gonna try to emulate a team on how to rebuild why not look at the Dolphins? They brought in about 30 Cowboys, previous relationship between players and coaches, and then tried to build from the trenches out. They brought in hardnosed players, had a roster turnover of something like 70% and they had to slightly overspend to get a couple of guys they hadn't worked with, Wilford and Smiley. Then in the draft they got their LT cornerstone and then went with a 2nd round quarterback while also eyeing bringing in a vet to help manage the game and mentor the young guy.
Because frankly the Dolphins got lucky in getting a QB. They were handed Chad Pennington because of Favre and Pennington had a great unexpected year. There is no FA QB with a high probability that could come here and do what Pennington. Even if the Lions build the trenches with a big free agent guard, and a rookie LT with the 1st pick, we still would not have a QB or at least a QB that we would expect to have a good season. Or a decent D because rookies are rookies. We don't have the developed guys like Crowder,Bell,etc. And who knows if that rookie LT is as good as Jake Long. Also Ronnie Brown and Ricky combo is a little better than what we have.

Plus as the guy above me said, there is a difference between Parcells guys (Jason Ferguson,Ayodele,Pennington,Fasano starter quality) and well Mayhew doesn't have guys. Dolphins D was decent but not great. They do have some talent there with guys developing, Crowder, Yeremiah Bell and Joey Porter back in a 3-4 really thrives and is a game changer. Plus Brady got hurt, the Bills tanked and the Jets tanked. Plus they had the AFC West and NFC West. Dolphins made the most out of a great setup for them for the year.
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Old 02-03-2009, 10:50 AM    (permalink
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Well said... People should be looking at the Falcons draft as the one we want to model if anything...
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Old 02-03-2009, 11:30 AM    (permalink
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Well said... People should be looking at the Falcons draft as the one we want to model if anything...
Falcons model is a good one but the Lions have to do their own thing based on BPA with needs factored in the equation. Right now QB is a need and Stafford is BPA at this point and worth the money. We really need more defensive playmakers at pick 20 and 33 as opposed to the Falcons(who waited to 2nd round for Lofton) because they had Abraham,Brooking,Jamal Anderson,Houston etc. However if a tackle or guard is BPA, thats an option at 20 or trade down for more picks if you really want defense and think you can get a Sintim or Laurinitus or corner a few picks later.

However, don't expect Stafford to do what Ryan did. Stafford may not even play right away, although you think about playing him if we get some decent guards in here, but some QBS need time to develop. Faclons D is in better shape and they have Michael Turner who right now is a much better back than Kevin Smith. A quick turnaround really isn't that likely. Falcons had 1 really down year, the Lions have had 8 including the worst possible last year. It's going to take a little more for us to get this turned around but again Stafford is a step in the right direction. Or other people really have to suprise me like Redding becoming dominant, another nose tackle fixing our run stopping problem and the young safeties in Bullocks and Alexander getting much better and Dizon becoming a decent starter and Avril/White becoming a formidable conistent pass rush. Very unlikely scenario except maybe at the DEs in Avril develops.
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Old 02-03-2009, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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I have high hopes for Avril. I think he has a 10 sack, 5 FF year in him for this coming season. Hopefully around 50 total tackles too. Be a nice sophmore year.
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Old 02-03-2009, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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Free Agents/Trades

Haynesworth
Foote
Robinson
Dansby
Engram
I like the Incognito signing that Shoe mentioned
I like the odds of this happening. :D
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Old 02-03-2009, 02:39 PM    (permalink
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I have high hopes for Avril. I think he has a 10 sack, 5 FF year in him for this coming season. Hopefully around 50 total tackles too. Be a nice sophmore year.
I hope so. He showed some flashes but he also has to get better in run D and hopefully not lose his speed. Plus he has to get more consistent. Good rookie year though. 2nd year is usually when the Millen picked guys fall off though so hopefully Schwartz/Avril can buck that trend. Bailey,Lehman,Bullocks,Alexander all had decent rookie years. Coincidentally, they all got injured in year 2 of their careers. I would love for the Lions to have a 10 sack guy for once, especially from a 3rd round pick.
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Old 02-03-2009, 02:43 PM    (permalink
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I like the odds of this happening. :D

I don't see the probability of that offseason as very high. Thats 3 really big name free agents, one of which is Haynesworth. We have a better shot at Haynesworth now with Scwartz but it's still very slim.

I'd say one out of Dansby or Dunta Robinson could sign here. I'd rather have Dansby.

Engram I could see but I'd also look at Toomer or Devery Henderson due to Engrams injury concerns. I'm a Penn Stater though so I would like Engram.

Icognito isn't very good. Raiola is better than him.

And althought Larry Foote is a good player, has he played in a 4-3 ever. I thought he was stricly a 3-4 ILB. Plus he has Casey Hampton in front of him. He won't have that in Detroit. I'd rather go younger with our LBs.
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Old 02-03-2009, 02:44 PM    (permalink
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I dont think Staffords a bad pick but the guy isnt Matt Ryan. Hes a junior with great potential but he trys to do to much sometimes. I dont think hes a bonafide franchise QB and after watching the Titans and Cardinals success why not look for a vetran to lead this team? We dont need a QB to do to much, hand the football off 30 times a game and get the ball anywhere near Calvin Johnson on passing downs. We need leadership outof that position and im not sure we could count on Stafford for that right away. If we are really going to commit to running the football and playing smashmouth defense lets draft like it. Now there are 3 guys sitting there at LT who are franchise type players and we have had a horrible offensive line since i can ever remember get the solid pick that will help both the pass game and the run game!
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Old 02-03-2009, 03:04 PM    (permalink
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For the record I think a Raji, Haynesworth, and Redding DT rotation would be an epic epic win. BUT that would undoubtedly put like half our salary cap into that DT combination to only have two of them on the field. Unless of course Haynesworth's contract is very early heavy like 20 Mil year one of a 5 year 60 Mil contract or something.
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Old 02-03-2009, 03:38 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by ShoeLB50 View Post
I dont think Staffords a bad pick but the guy isnt Matt Ryan. Hes a junior with great potential but he trys to do to much sometimes. I dont think hes a bonafide franchise QB and after watching the Titans and Cardinals success why not look for a vetran to lead this team? We dont need a QB to do to much, hand the football off 30 times a game and get the ball anywhere near Calvin Johnson on passing downs. We need leadership outof that position and im not sure we could count on Stafford for that right away. If we are really going to commit to running the football and playing smashmouth defense lets draft like it. Now there are 3 guys sitting there at LT who are franchise type players and we have had a horrible offensive line since i can ever remember get the solid pick that will help both the pass game and the run game!

Kerry Collins is still a first round pick, former franchise QB. We can't get built like the Titans in one year. Plus Titans have a 2nd Round LT, a future HOF center and some really good guards. And Kurt Warner is a HOF QB, just happens to be one of the very few undrafted HOF QBs.

Stafford can help the running game as well. If the opposing defenses have to game plan for a franchise QB, especially one that has a canon for an arm with Calvin Johnson as a a weapon, it should limit the 8 men in the box against Kevin Smith.

Our Olines major problem stems from the guards. Linehan already has said he likes Backus/Raiola/Gosder and although he's not the greatest, we might have to live with him for one more year. I don't even know if a rookie LT can be better right away than an LT with 100 starts in a row.

Stafford isn't Matt Ryan. Really we don't know, but if he's BPA and the best QB in the draft, then we have to take him. Our QB play was not very good last year. We have no one to carry our team on our back. Finding a QB could finally fix that problem along with fixing our defense/interior line.
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Old 02-03-2009, 05:43 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by The Peefs View Post
Well we brought in about 30 Tampa Bay Bucs from what had been a perennial playoff team. The guys we've been bringing in lately have also supposedly been hard nosed players as that type of player was a 'Marinelli Guy.' We also brought in a vet QB as well as drafting one in the 2nd.

I agree the Fins are an amazing success story, but in the end I don't think anyone is confusing Mayhew & Lewand for Bill Parcells. I'm still hoping we do follow his idea of selecting an OT over a QB though.
The Bucs that we brought in were rejects that Tampa didnt want to resign, which is a little different from guys that Parcells brought to Miami. The guys that Miami brought in had tons of starts for the Cowboys under Parcells, where as the ex-Bucs we brought in were guys that only started because of injury(Pearson and White) or were guys that have lost steps and past there prime(Darby, Kelly, Smith).

I agree with the fact that Mayhew/Lewand combo is not Parcells, but hopefully our new coaching staff isnt the old staff either. So maybe the new guys will bring good talent with them from their previous teams, much like Martz did.
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Old 02-03-2009, 05:49 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by mqtirishfan View Post
I like the odds of this happening. :D
It's obviously an unlikely scenario at best. It's my way of saying that I PRAY that we sign at least a couple of impact players for the D side of the ball. I'll choose the path of optimism right now as we've already suffered enough this year. New front office, solid draft spots and lots of cap space make me giddy with anticipation...

I HAVE A DREAM
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Old 02-03-2009, 06:02 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Maybe Next Year Millen2 View Post
Because frankly the Dolphins got lucky in getting a QB. They were handed Chad Pennington because of Favre and Pennington had a great unexpected year. There is no FA QB with a high probability that could come here and do what Pennington. Even if the Lions build the trenches with a big free agent guard, and a rookie LT with the 1st pick, we still would not have a QB or at least a QB that we would expect to have a good season. Or a decent D because rookies are rookies. We don't have the developed guys like Crowder,Bell,etc. And who knows if that rookie LT is as good as Jake Long. Also Ronnie Brown and Ricky combo is a little better than what we have.

Plus as the guy above me said, there is a difference between Parcells guys (Jason Ferguson,Ayodele,Pennington,Fasano starter quality) and well Mayhew doesn't have guys. Dolphins D was decent but not great. They do have some talent there with guys developing, Crowder, Yeremiah Bell and Joey Porter back in a 3-4 really thrives and is a game changer. Plus Brady got hurt, the Bills tanked and the Jets tanked. Plus they had the AFC West and NFC West. Dolphins made the most out of a great setup for them for the year.
I agree that the Dolphins got lucky in a QB, but Pennington wasnt that highly of a sought after QB once the Jets decided to get rid of him. It's not like the Jest pulled the Dolphins name out of a hat and said well that's the only team we'll give him to. If Pennington was that highly thought of the Jets could have traded him for a lot, instead they were forced to release him and he signed with the best offer which he had to compete for the starting job. I dont know many people that would have given Pennington a high probability to do what he ended up doing. So it shouldnt be out of the realm of possibility for a QB to have a great yr in a new environment, it happens almost every yr.

Yes, they had Crowder, but Bell wasnt developed or that highly thought of before this yr. Yes they have Ronnie Brown and Ricky, but before the season that wasn't that stable of a running back situation. Yes, the Ot's available this yr might not be as good as Jake Long, but last yr a lot of people thought the 'Phins were crazy for selecting him #1 because "he's gonna be a RT and you dont draft a RT #1" so it should be plausible that Jake wasnt a sure thing.

Yeah, Porter thrived in the system brought in by the new staff, but our new staff might get our players to thrive. Sims has shown a ton of potential in his first couple of seasons, Alexander and Bullocks have flashed ability when they've been healthy, K.Smith and CJ are young talent that should only continue to grow.

As for their division opening up, well all i gotta say is that we are in the NFC North and that should be enough and our schedule sets up nicely next yr also.

All-in-all I guess i just tend to think that we could emulate a 1-15 team in the Dolphins and make strides, we probably wont make the playoffs, but a decent offseason should allow us to compete for a few wins.
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