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Old 10-20-2009, 04:00 PM    (permalink
awfullyquiet
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Originally Posted by S T R I N G View Post
Is this sarcasm?

If not...try watching some football one day. ;)
why? because 3.4 yards is absolutely terrible? but, imagine, you can gain 3.4 yards per play consistently. you'll move the chains more often than not. obviously the key word is consistency, and very often 'home run hitters' strike out. so, if you could guarantee me a RB who gained 3.5 yards per rush... i don't think a person would ever turn that down... that's not the way it works, but, provides a good estimate... when i say 3.4 ypc, it's a baseline of what an average NFL RB should be producing. Any RB that produces better is 'good', but unfortunatly, you're under the false position that 'running yards' is that important, especially with some of these (chris johnson, steve slaton, ray rice) have proven to be huge passing threats as well... it's less part of the 'running game' as you put it, but more part of a complete offensive scheme which is being leveed across the NFL. Versatility at RB has never been as highly valued as it is now. If that's what you mean by 'Running Game', then sure, the running game is down so far... But does that mean that that the running back position is suddenly less productive? No way in hell.

Sure, you'd love for your RB to average 5 ypc right now... but right now, receptions AND reception yards are up among running backs at the moment compared to the last six games of last year... isn't that something to be perused over? or is that beyond the scope of this thread?

Heck, look at rushing yards... HOLY ****. START A FIRE! this year... the average ypc across the league is. 4.2 ypc. what was the league wide ypc last year? OH ****. 4.2 ypc. how about in 2007? OH ****. 4.1 ypc. how about in 2006? OH ****. 4.2 ypc.

You're selectively leaving out people, in hopes that you can say that 'the NFL running game is sucking'... your argument that you've used as a premise is wrong. and, as i just pointed out, that the YPC among the league, YOUR STAT YOU CHOSE, is EXACTLY the same as it's been for the past 3 seasons.

And I don't know what to make of your last comment sir. Are you saying I don't watch football, with a coy wink to imply that it's sexist? You sir, are a moron with half-assed thoughts of the game. Thank you. Go to hell.
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Last edited by awfullyquiet : 10-20-2009 at 04:02 PM.
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Old 10-20-2009, 04:06 PM    (permalink
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Old 10-20-2009, 04:13 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by awfullyquiet View Post
why? because 3.4 yards is absolutely terrible? but, imagine, you can gain 3.4 yards per play consistently. you'll move the chains more often than not. obviously the key word is consistency, and very often 'home run hitters' strike out. so, if you could guarantee me a RB who gained 3.5 yards per rush... i don't think a person would ever turn that down... that's not the way it works, but, provides a good estimate... when i say 3.4 ypc, it's a baseline of what an average NFL RB should be producing. Any RB that produces better is 'good', but unfortunatly, you're under the false position that 'running yards' is that important, especially with some of these (chris johnson, steve slaton, ray rice) have proven to be huge passing threats as well... it's less part of the 'running game' as you put it, but more part of a complete offensive scheme which is being leveed across the NFL. Versatility at RB has never been as highly valued as it is now. If that's what you mean by 'Running Game', then sure, the running game is down so far... But does that mean that that the running back position is suddenly less productive? No way in hell.
3.4 yards is terrible actually, if the league average is 4.2. Pretty much common sense. This discussion is about RUNNING the football. I'm not talking about backs catching the ball out of the backfield because it has no relevancy to this topic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by awfullyquiet View Post
Sure, you'd love for your RB to average 5 ypc right now... but right now, receptions AND reception yards are up among running backs at the moment compared to the last six games of last year... isn't that something to be perused over? or is that beyond the scope of this thread?

Heck, look at rushing yards... HOLY ****. START A FIRE! this year... the average ypc across the league is. 4.2 ypc. what was the league wide ypc last year? OH ****. 4.2 ypc. how about in 2007? OH ****. 4.1 ypc. how about in 2006? OH ****. 4.2 ypc.
Past 3 seasons NFL teams have averaged 116, 111, and 117 yards per game on the ground. This season it's 77.9 so far. Sure, it will probably go up a bit once the weather changes but that's a HUGE drop considering it hasn't changed that much in DECADES.

Yes, the YPC is around the same. I was more pointing out that a lot of backs who were considered very good are producing at a very low level.

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Originally Posted by awfullyquiet View Post
You're selectively leaving out people, in hopes that you can say that 'the NFL running game is sucking'... your argument that you've used as a premise is wrong. and, as i just pointed out, that the YPC among the league, YOUR STAT YOU CHOSE, is EXACTLY the same as it's been for the past 3 seasons.
Huh? I posted the stats of the rushers with low averages only because I noticed the trend when pouring over some stats. Obviously some RBs with high YPCs like Johnson, Rice, and Peterson are bringing the stat up. I was just giving a list of players that have disappointed this season.

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Originally Posted by awfullyquiet View Post
And I don't know what to make of your last comment sir. Are you saying I don't watch football, with a coy wink to imply that it's sexist? You sir, are a moron with half-assed thoughts of the game. Thank you. Go to hell.
Sexist? I'm assuming you're a woman then? Not sure if you're aware of this, but I'm not aware of the sex of every NFLDC member.

Further, if you think 3.4 YPC is anything other than terrible, you don't know football. Which is exactly what I was implying.
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Old 10-20-2009, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by S T R I N G View Post
3.4 yards is terrible actually, if the league average is 4.2. Pretty much common sense. This discussion is about RUNNING the football. I'm not talking about backs catching the ball out of the backfield because it has no relevancy to this topic.
because schemes haven't changed? really? since when? i think that me pointing out that running backs the first 6 weeks have a marginal rise in reception and reception yards is worthy of notating a discrepancy between the rushing yards. I think it's why we refer to 'touches' now moreso than carries.

Quote:
Past 3 seasons NFL teams have averaged 116, 111, and 117 yards per game on the ground. This season it's 77.9 so far. Sure, it will probably go up a bit once the weather changes but that's a HUGE drop considering it hasn't changed that much in DECADES.
oh this is correct... you tend to think this currently (RIGHT NOW) is more of a fluke and will normalize by the end of the year? Because you're saying it's not a fluke. That the rushing game is getting worse?

Quote:
Yes, the YPC is around the same. I was more pointing out that a lot of backs who were considered very good are producing at a very low level.
And? You just said it yourself, sure, it'll probably go up a bit once the weather changes. Therefore, current stats should be taken with a grain of salt when saying that the sky is falling.

Quote:
Huh? I posted the stats of the rushers with low averages only because I noticed the trend when pouring over some stats. Obviously some RBs with high YPCs like Johnson, Rice, and Peterson are bringing the stat up. I was just giving a list of players that have disappointed this season.
But are they actually disappointing? Has Steve Slaton really been a disappointment this year? over 90 yards from scrimmage per game is bad?

Glen Coffee is a backup. Jamal Lewis plays on the incompetent brownies. Julius Jones is playing with a 3rd string offensive line. Are you assuming there were lofty expectations for these people?

How far away is 3.8 from 4.2? .4 yards? Would you say that once the weather changes, you could expect maybe a .4 ypc increase in these backs? Maybe more? How about in Atlanta... with 81 carries over 5 games and yet their still averaging 100 ypg on the ground? Could it be something to do with integrating Norwood into the offense?

I think you just throwing out numbers without providing context has done nothing to prove your point. Sure, the YPC are down, but... it doesn't say anything useful?

The Giants are second in the league with 139 rushes and 4.2 ypc? Is that 'not getting it done on the ground'? How about the Cowboys who have SIX rushing touchdowns?

Quote:
Sexist? I'm assuming you're a woman then? Not sure if you're aware of this, but I'm not aware of the sex of every NFLDC member.
Yeah. Subtle wink fail. Right?

Quote:
Further, if you think 3.4 YPC is anything other than terrible, you don't know football. Which is exactly what I was implying.
In Forte's context? 3.4 ypg is fantastic. Why? I was doing this the other night for Renji/GOW at the average relative yard of first contact, this year, over 68 verified carries, he was first touched .3 yards from the line of scrimmage. Ryan Grant? .5? Adrian Peterson? 1.7. Adrian Peterson was touched at or behind the line of scrimmage 14 times, Grant 11, Forte? 21 times he was touched at or behind the line of scrimmage. Does that say something about why I'd don't really mind seeing 3.4 ypc from Forte?

Are you unfamiliar with the concept three yards and a cloud of dust? 3.4 ypc is the absolute baseline of what an NFL running back should be, which I represented TWICE...

Quote:
when i say 3.4 ypc, it's a baseline of what an average NFL RB should be producing.
or how about we do math... 3.4*3 = 10.2... isn't a first down only 10 yards? didn't i say something along the lines of... edit: it's akin to the mendoza line in my book.

Quote:
obviously the key word is consistency
Consistency? Isn't that what makes a good rushing attack? The Giants know this one the best of all, pound out yards on the ground, play ball control, and succeed. Sure, Bradshaw has been pushing the YPC envelope, but, their running attack has been consistant. If you could gain 3.4 yards EVERY DOWN rushing. Why wouldn't you run the ball? That's what I postulated. Sure, having 4 ypc would be better, and 5 better still, especially if your chances to get stopped at the line of scrimmage are greater. But, the very minimum you should be producing, the baseline, with consistency is 3.4 ypc. That's what I was trying to say. It's not a stupid concept, actually, it's a very old concept. Older than you. Conservative, yes, but bad? No.

Again, I think you're trying to form this opinion that the statistics are 'wrong' and that they're not going to normalize? I'd be damn surprised if in 2 months, all of those numbers don't go up (except for Jamal Lewis, again, that's not his fault).

edit: to clarify something further, i'd like to say that YPC does not necessarly equate to the consistency of a running game. You can be gaining 6ypc after a carry of 18 yards, a loss of 2 yards, a NG, and a run of 8 yards. which, would be 6 ypc, and only one first down... OTOH, you could theoretically run 6 yards 4 times and gain 2 first downs... in that regards, wouldn't looking at first downs also be indicative of how well rushing in the league is? Have you touched on that? No? You might want to bring that part up.
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Old 10-20-2009, 06:11 PM    (permalink
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seriously the bears line is ******* horrible at run blocking. I dont think there is any other word to describe it. Once Forte had like 1-2 holes, he had those big runs against the lions. we couldnt even get holes against the lions more than 2-3 times though
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Old 10-21-2009, 06:51 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by S T R I N G View Post
3.4 yards is terrible actually, if the league average is 4.2. Pretty much common sense. This discussion is about RUNNING the football. I'm not talking about backs catching the ball out of the backfield because it has no relevancy to this topic.
Not necessarily. If you're gaining 3.4 yards every time you hand off you're never coming off the field. 3.4 yards as a gain ends up being 2nd and 6.

The averages in yards gained come about because numbers are not always divisible by the number of carries.

In essence if it's 3+ anything it's a four yard carry. Arguing that they're .8 yards shy of anything is foolish, since that's literally one bad defensive play. Also, great running backs have had days where their YPC average is terrible because they've shunted in touchdowns from the one yard line.

Yards per play is never indicative of how good a running game is. The number of touchdowns they score, their conversions on third and fourth and short, and in the redzone however is, number of run plays +10 and +20 yards is also a good indicator.

These are the things simply going to nfl.com/stats won't tell you and but it is most definitely something that factors when actually watching the games.

Oh and, fyi, the turn of the phrase is "has no relevance" "relevancy" is the plural noun.

Quote:
Originally Posted by S T R I N G View Post
Past 3 seasons NFL teams have averaged 116, 111, and 117 yards per game on the ground. This season it's 77.9 so far. Sure, it will probably go up a bit once the weather changes but that's a HUGE drop considering it hasn't changed that much in DECADES.
To bring a homer shade into the argument, look back at DeAngelo Williams performance as of the end of week 4 last year.

He had 194 yards and 0 touchdowns, his ypc had been above 3 just twice in that time.

His final statistics were eye popping 3rd overall in rushing, by far the most effective running back per rush in the NFL and lead the league in touchdowns.

My point: Early stats in running games mean nothing whatsoever. The money period is the middle 8 weeks when linebackers and DTs get a little beat up, the temperature begins to drop and above all else, offensive lines begin to find that rhythm that leads to a symphony of production.

Quote:
Originally Posted by S T R I N G View Post
Yes, the YPC is around the same. I was more pointing out that a lot of backs who were considered very good are producing at a very low level.
You're basically saying that the sun rises and sets in a 24 hour period. It's not ground breaking analysis, it's an accepted normality of the league that running games do not heat up till the middle of the season.

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Originally Posted by S T R I N G View Post
Huh? I posted the stats of the rushers with low averages only because I noticed the trend when pouring over some stats. Obviously some RBs with high YPCs like Johnson, Rice, and Peterson are bringing the stat up. I was just giving a list of players that have disappointed this season.
These guys are the exception to the rule and two of these guys are recognised universally as backs who can produce without production from the offensive line. They are the phenoms of the NFL at the position right now.

Ray Rice isn't in their class, but as I've mentioned many times he's probably the NFL's most effective rusher in that he's rarely stuffed behind the line and gains on average more of the middle averages than any one else.

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Originally Posted by S T R I N G View Post
Sexist? I'm assuming you're a woman then? Not sure if you're aware of this, but I'm not aware of the sex of every NFLDC member.

Further, if you think 3.4 YPC is anything other than terrible, you don't know football. Which is exactly what I was implying.
I don't know why you have such an attitude everywhere you post. It's ok to be insecure, but don't project pissy little shots at everyone. You've made some interesting points, but no one and I mean no one, will want to read your posts if they're littered with insults.
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Last edited by BlindSite : 10-21-2009 at 06:54 AM.
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