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Old 11-19-2009, 09:24 PM    (permalink
wogitalia
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Best decision is not the right decision. it was the best decision at the time, yes. but you cant say at the time of a decision since a decision is always and will always be related to the outcome and the result.
I think we will just have to agree to disagree here. Given that you can not make the decision based on the outcome, only the probability I am a firm and unchanging believer that you can make the right decision and have the wrong outcome. Hence the saying "Sh!t Happens" and also "Hindsight is 20-20". Just my feel, I like to judge the decision, based on the decision because that is all I feel you do and if that is all you can judge on, the best decision is the right decision to make, win or lose.

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So lets just go for it on 4th down every time, so you can boost the moral of your team?
To be honest I have no real problem with that school of thought, obviously it is reliant on having both a good defense and offense or it would not work, but the basic premise is fine. Obviously there are exceptions, but certainly if you have 4th and 1 or 2 I would have no problem with a team going for it 100% of the time. I also have no problem with playing the field position game, especially if you are considerably better on one side of the ball, like say the Saints or Vikings of years past.

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i dont see what the league average has to do with the pats/colts defense.
Essentially it was an easier figure to find that specific teams defense/offense. I think the point stands though that they still had a very reasonable chance to stop the Colts without punting, combined with a very reasonable chance of winning the game right there and then I still like and support the decision 100%.

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Just because failing the 4th down would lead to the defense defending a short field doesnt mean he intended that and thought they would make it.
Getting into what he thought it pushing the boundary on what we can do and he certainly didn't intend to have his defense play but you don't go for it on 4th down if you don't have at least a little faith in your defense to be able to stop them. Unless you are that arrogant that you honestly believe that you can get a first down whenever you want, it is inherent in going for it on 4th down that you may end up playing defense and if you don't think/believe that your defense can stop the opponent with a shortened field, you have no basis to be going for it.

Don't get me wrong here, in now way does Belichek want his defense on the field in that situation, but he obviously felt that they could still stop them if they failed, there is the alternative possibility that he didn't think they had any chance at all regardless of yardage, but I just can't buy that side of it, surely BB believed there was some chance for his defense.

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He doesnt, he is lowering the chances of his defense. what its basically saying is: i trust my offense more to win it right now, than you when i punt it, since the chance winning it when going for it with the offense is a lot higher.
He is certainly lowering the defenses chances, to me anytime you make a decision with that outcome it is showing a faith in them, sure he wants the offense to win it and not play d at all, that is the dream so to speak. He is arrogant, but surely not enough so that he believed there was no chance of having to play D.

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wtf? you really think there is a coach out there that trust his defense more to defend a short field than a long one?
I have no idea how you have got that impression from the quote or anything I have said. I would hope there isn't a coach out there with that school of thought, funnily enough the team I play on is more likely to give up a TD to a long pass than on a goal line stand, but even then, you always want the long field.
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Old 11-19-2009, 09:43 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by wogitalia View Post
I think we will just have to agree to disagree here. Given that you can not make the decision based on the outcome, only the probability I am a firm and unchanging believer that you can make the right decision and have the wrong outcome. Hence the saying "Sh!t Happens" and also "Hindsight is 20-20". Just my feel, I like to judge the decision, based on the decision because that is all I feel you do and if that is all you can judge on, the best decision is the right decision to make, win or lose.
Okay, lets play it backwards, someone choses door 3 despite the 10% and he wins. you wanna tell me he made a wrong decision?



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To be honest I have no real problem with that school of thought, obviously it is reliant on having both a good defense and offense or it would not work, but the basic premise is fine. Obviously there are exceptions, but certainly if you have 4th and 1 or 2 I would have no problem with a team going for it 100% of the time. I also have no problem with playing the field position game, especially if you are considerably better on one side of the ball, like say the Saints or Vikings of years past.
So basically, what ever a coach does shows faith in your team? thats *******. You show more faith in your offense since you want to keep your defense off the field.


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Essentially it was an easier figure to find that specific teams defense/offense. I think the point stands though that they still had a very reasonable chance to stop the Colts without punting, combined with a very reasonable chance of winning the game right there and then I still like and support the decision 100%.
Okay, how about Peyton Manning, in the last 2 minutes with a game on the line? there is a big difference in big pressure moments, and no at that point apparently it wasnt reasonable that they would stop him cause he fully believe the defense wouldnt even stop him go down the whole field. I mean tell me, why would he go for it if he thought his defense is gonna stop him?


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Getting into what he thought it pushing the boundary on what we can do and he certainly didn't intend to have his defense play but you don't go for it on 4th down if you don't have at least a little faith in your defense to be able to stop them. Unless you are that arrogant that you honestly believe that you can get a first down whenever you want, it is inherent in going for it on 4th down that you may end up playing defense and if you don't think/believe that your defense can stop the opponent with a shortened field, you have no basis to be going for it.
you dont in a normal game, at the 50 yard line or so. With the game on the line and you decide you need to make a conversion to win, cause it is a higher chance winning than your defense stopping him, shows that you dont trust your defense as much as your offense. thats why bruschi, thats why Harrison were totally upset. they felt that he didnt trust the defense.

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Don't get me wrong here, in now way does Belichek want his defense on the field in that situation, but he obviously felt that they could still stop them if they failed, there is the alternative possibility that he didn't think they had any chance at all regardless of yardage, but I just can't buy that side of it, surely BB believed there was some chance for his defense.
okay this is just idiotic. If he doesnt want his defense on the field, how does he trust it? there is a difference in, still having a small chance in winning and trusting your defense making the stop. obviously there is no given. No one says, manning gets the ball equals automatic score. if it was, they wouldnt have played till the TD. but to say he thought the defense had a very good chance is obviously wrong. I dont see it, why would he go for it, when he thought his defense could make it anyway? why?


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He is certainly lowering the defenses chances, to me anytime you make a decision with that outcome it is showing a faith in them, sure he wants the offense to win it and not play d at all, that is the dream so to speak. He is arrogant, but surely not enough so that he believed there was no chance of having to play D.
No one says that he thinks there is no chance. there is always a chance as long as they doesnt cross the goalline. doesnt mean he trusts the defense. thats 2 seperate things.


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I have no idea how you have got that impression from the quote or anything I have said. I would hope there isn't a coach out there with that school of thought, funnily enough the team I play on is more likely to give up a TD to a long pass than on a goal line stand, but even then, you always want the long field.
Yes, so if he trusted his defense, why wouldnt he let the defense manage it?
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Old 11-19-2009, 10:04 PM    (permalink
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Everyone has different opinions on this decision by Belichick. IMO I dont agree with the call. I always believe you punt the ball on 4th down if you are not at least at the 50 yard line. The only time a team should go for it in their own territory is if its late in the 4th quarter and you are trailing.

I would rather Manning have to drive around 70 yards instead of about 30. Maybe the Colts win either way. Id just never go for it like Belly did b/c if you dont get it you have no chance. Even more so since you are out of timeouts. The Colts just milked the clock and won it.

The call that Belly made didnt make sense to me b/c they had the lead. If they didnt it would of been a no brainer to go for it. I realize their are 2 sides to every debate. This is just my personal opinion.

This is also my first post on these forums. Great site.
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Old 11-20-2009, 01:29 AM    (permalink
wogitalia
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Okay, lets play it backwards, someone choses door 3 despite the 10% and he wins. you wanna tell me he made a wrong decision?
It's the wrong decision, but it worked out alright, call it luck. You need to make the decision independent of the result to evaluate the decision. I see your point, I just don't share the view point. All I am saying is that by making the best decision you are making the right decision, it's just simple probability and as with anything that has multiple outcomes you can make the right choice and not have it work out.

Take drink driving as an example... You have too many to drink, the right choice is not to drive(from a getting home safely point of view, not legal) and take a taxi. If you choose to drive home and you make it, it was still the wrong choice, if the taxi crashes, it was still the right choice. It is the decision itself, not the outcome that I am saying is right or wrong. They are two separate things to evaluate, yes, the outcome in the Pats case was wrong, but the choice can still be right.

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So basically, what ever a coach does shows faith in your team? thats *******. You show more faith in your offense since you want to keep your defense off the field.
By going for it on 4th down I believe that you do. Something like kneeling out the final minute of a first half with 60 or so yards to go would not be showing faith, basically says to the offense that you believe they are more likely to give up a TD than score.

Going for it on 4th is saying to the offense, I believe you can get this and saying to the defense, if they can't I believe you can hold up your end. The fact that he wants his offense to win it there and then does not say that he doesn't think his defense can stop them, he is saying that he believes his offense is good enough that the defense wont need to stop them.

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I mean tell me, why would he go for it if he thought his defense is gonna stop him?
Why play defense and take the chance if you don't have to? Their offense was dominating the Colts for the game, he put it in their hands to end it. Should he have punted or gone for it if the ball moves? I don't really see how where the ball is matters in this situation, the choice is to try and end it now and if you have to play defense, you play defense. Obviously with a guy like Manning, if you can keep him off the field, why not do it?

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I dont see it, why would he go for it, when he thought his defense could make it anyway? why?
Why take that chance? You either believe the defense is capable of stopping them or not, the field position doesn't matter to that. If you think the defense can stop Manning scoring then what does it matter where the ball starts? There is a difference though between thinking the defense can win it and your offense being able to win it. Why not go for the win with the offense? It was an aggressive call, but the likelihood of winning on offense is 99% if you get that first down, the likelihood of winning on defense is much lower, regardless of where Manning gets the ball, make one play and win, or punt and put the ball in Manning's hands and hope the defense makes the stop. Punt= 95% chance that Manning gets a shot to win. Going for it on 4th down is roughly 40% chance that Manning gets a shot, the cost being that you increase Manning's chance to win IF he gets it. Play to win is go for it, let the opposition play to win is punt.

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No one says that he thinks there is no chance. there is always a chance as long as they doesnt cross the goalline. doesnt mean he trusts the defense. thats 2 seperate things.
No it isnt, if you know there is a strong chance that they will have to take a shortened field is in itself trusting the defense. Punting would also be trusting his defense, it would be entrusting it with 100% responsibility for the W/L, but if he thinks his defense can't defend 70 yards(which is what you are implying his not punting means) why would he give it the very realistic chance of it having to do it in 30. He is saying to the defense that they can make the stop in 30, he is also saying he would rather they not have to make the stop at all. There is just no way you make that call if your belief is that the defense cant make that stop, thats like saying that Manning=autoscore if he has the ball. If you don't believe the defense can make the stop you dont call a play with a roughly 40% chance to lose you the game. You punt and hope the defense makes the stop if you think the defense cant stop them with 30 yards.

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Yes, so if he trusted his defense, why wouldnt he let the defense manage it?
Probability. There is a difference between trusting the defense and wanting the defense to have to do it. You can have all the faith in the world and it can still not work. BB sees 60% chance to win the game now, decreasing to 40% chance to win(Colts Red Zone Offense scores a TD on 60% of it's attempts) if they fail, or he can punt it and probably have a 50-60% chance to win on defense(which may be generous even). By going for it, you can win the game now and avoid giving the Colts a realistic chance to win and should you not get it, you still have a good chance to win. Or you can punt and just have the good chance to win.

I just don't see the insult to the defense in telling your very good offense to go out and seal the game, I certainly see a compliment in having enough trust in a) the offense getting 2 yards and b) the defense holding on regardless should they need to. Sure it all blew up in his face because they couldn't do either, but that doesn't mean his trust is misplaced or that his decision was wrong, again imo.

I like the aggressive call, especially given who they were playing, which is a major factor because I believe it gave them the best shot at winning, we can never know what would have happened if they punted, lets be honest, Manning was in the zone in that last Q, it is probably at least 50-50 that he marches the field anyway, can never rule out the punt return, or maybe the muff the kick and it ends there anyway, but all those things are less likely than the 4th down conversion and none can happen if you win right there and then on that 4th down.

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Id just never go for it like Belly did b/c if you dont get it you have no chance.
That might be true if they only needed a FG, but the Colts were still only a 60% or so chance to win after the 4th down failed.

I like to look at it from this perspective, Going for it gives both teams a shot at a 60% chance to win, but the Pats get to have it first. Punting makes it a 50-50 game. So effectively, the Pats chose to have a go at their 60% and win it without the Colts even getting a roll of the dice, they lost their roll though, so the Colts then got theirs, and the Colts won theirs. The other door was a coinflip, personally I see better odds on the first situation for the Pats and thus back the decision.
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Old 11-20-2009, 09:09 AM    (permalink
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Old 11-20-2009, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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This thread is getting a little repetitive.
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Old 11-20-2009, 02:11 PM    (permalink
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i cant but repeat the argument. its not that hard to get. i talked to aq today and it took like 5 minutes until she got it.
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Old 11-23-2009, 01:03 PM    (permalink
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she must be slipping. 5 minutes is much longer than i would've expected.
well it took me some time to put my arguments into words and counter hers, since i wasnt raised english its not always easy
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Old 11-23-2009, 02:49 PM    (permalink
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I think it was right the call. The Pat's offense is by far the superior unit compared to their defense. The percentage of picking up the 4th and 2 is probably higher than the defense stopping Manning from going 70 yards in 2 minutes with 2 timeouts. He might have had all 3, I forget.

In my opinion, if they punt, there is no doubt in my mind Peyton drives the field and scores leaving the Pats with no time. I also think Bill thought if they didn't pick up the 4th down, Peyton would have scored quickly enough to leave them another chance with the ball. That didn't happen though.
Exactly and what if the Colts blocked the punt of the punter shanked the kick? This reminds of coaches who a small lead and the ball late in the game and just run the ball to eat up time but do not go for the first down and punt. Then the other team comes down and scores. You have to play to win not to try to not lose.
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Old 11-24-2009, 12:07 AM    (permalink
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yup, defenses can't actually win games. they just lose them. just ask ray lewis and the 2001 ravens.

i love when people add thoughts that've already been refuted several times.
But they weren't the 2001 Ravens and nor did they have the same caliber defense; they had already given up 28 points, including 14 in the 4th. I understand you are exaggerating, but you have to play to your strengths and momentum and go for it because your offense does in fact resemble the record setting 2007 Patriots.
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