They're definitely very top heavy. Some of the teams the MWC has are still pathetic. There are some lowly teams in that conference.
I'd expect them to get one. Its gonna be nice havinng Boise and TCU play every year and Nevada, Fresno, Air Force, and Hawaii are just as good as what the other conferences boast in the middle. Its the remaining five teams that could keep them from getting a spot. Reading the article, the second thing it is based on is final computer ranking of every team in the conference. MWC average is going to be brought so far down by those bottom 5 teams that even having Boise and TCU top 5 may not be enough to bring it up.