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Old 11-24-2010, 02:17 PM    (permalink
JoeJoeBrown
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Originally Posted by SickwithIt1010 View Post
well i guess this original statement was made at JoeJoeBrown but you were the one who responded to my post, so my apologies sir.
I too did not say that they'd get their asses kicked. I said that I'd like to see them play quality teams this bowl season.

I do contend that they would not be among the top 10 teams if they played a BCS conference schedule (minus the big least, they are worse than the WAC).

And with that contention, I feel that they do not deserve to be in the NC game discussion. They have not had to earn it. They will have played two quality teams by season's end.
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:17 PM    (permalink
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Boise State plays two difficult teams a year. The first week of the seaosn, which allows them to gameplan for an entire offseason for their opponent. And then the bowl game, where they can spend 3 or 4 weeks gameplanning for the opponent. Put them in a league where they are tested every week, Boise State will lose multiple games each year with the talent they have.

And to whomever said Ohio State and Boise State had comparable schedules, you are crazy. Iowa and Wisconsin are better than any team Boise played. Miami is better than all of them outside of Virginia Tech.
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:25 PM    (permalink
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Boise State plays two difficult teams a year. The first week of the seaosn, which allows them to gameplan for an entire offseason for their opponent. And then the bowl game, where they can spend 3 or 4 weeks gameplanning for the opponent. Put them in a league where they are tested every week, Boise State will lose multiple games each year with the talent they have.

And to whomever said Ohio State and Boise State had comparable schedules, you are crazy. Iowa and Wisconsin are better than any team Boise played. Miami is better than all of them outside of Virginia Tech.
Nevada is ranked higher ;)
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:35 PM    (permalink
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Nevada is ranked higher ;)
Rankings are not the end-all-be-all in determining which team is better. For example, Oklahoma lost to Missouri, but is still ranked higher.

And there is no way Nevada would beat Miami. Who have they beaten besides a mediocre Cal team?
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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Rankings are not the end-all-be-all in determining which team is better. For example, Oklahoma lost to Missouri, but is still ranked higher.

And there is no way Nevada would beat Miami. Who have they beaten besides a mediocre Cal team?
no way to prove that until they play, one is ranked and one isnt. No way of proving this. Would Miami be the favorite? yeah probably. But dont start makin claims.
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 11-24-2010, 03:35 PM    (permalink
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i eat paint.
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Old 11-24-2010, 03:46 PM    (permalink
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Strength of schedule rankings.

Boise State - 73
TCU - 68

Ohio State - 59
Wisconsin - 61
Michigan State - 67

The three top Big Ten teams, Boise State, and TCU all have a strength of schedule ranking within 14 spots of each other. Out of 120 teams, that's essentially the same quality of schedule played.
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Old 11-24-2010, 03:50 PM    (permalink
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Strength of schedule rankings.

Boise State - 73
TCU - 68

Ohio State - 59
Wisconsin - 61
Michigan State - 67

The three top Big Ten teams, Boise State, and TCU all have a strength of schedule ranking within 14 spots of each other. Out of 120 teams, that's essentially the same quality of schedule played.
OMGZZZZZZ WAC and MWC teams playing as tough of schedules as Big 10 teams!? who would have known?!
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 11-24-2010, 03:59 PM    (permalink
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As far as SOS goes could the arguement be made that a lot of the top tier teams from the Big Six schedule the bottom wrung teams out of the WAC/MWC? Or am i grasping at straws trying to play devils advocate?
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:23 PM    (permalink
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SOS is not a ironclad stat considering it puts teams like Eastern Michigan and Marshall as being a lot worse than teams like Idaho and Louisiana Tech when in reality they are all cupcake teams who can't beat any halfway decent team. If you consider teams like that equal and then teams like Va Tech, Iowa, etc. as being a lot better it would be a more viable statistic. Boise plays 2 teams all year worth a damn. Ohio State and other BCS teams play usually 7 or 8 teams who have legit talent and can compete. Let's see Boise play Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Northwestern in a row before they complain they aren't getting a fair shot, because that's what Wisconsin is doing this year.
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:30 PM    (permalink
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SOS is not a ironclad stat considering it puts teams like Eastern Michigan and Marshall as being a lot worse than teams like Idaho and Louisiana Tech when in reality they are all cupcake teams who can't beat any halfway decent team. If you consider teams like that equal and then teams like Va Tech, Iowa, etc. as being a lot better it would be a more viable statistic. Boise plays 2 teams all year worth a damn. Ohio State and other BCS teams play usually 7 or 8 teams who have legit talent and can compete. Let's see Boise play Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Northwestern in a row before they complain they aren't getting a fair shot, because that's what Wisconsin is doing this year.
If BSU got an invite to the Big 10 i bet you they would take it...
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:36 PM    (permalink
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This argument will be null and void next year when TCU will play Boise State on a regular basis since both will be in the MWC.
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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If BSU got an invite to the Big 10 i bet you they would take it...
I'm sure they would. If you look at the SOS of the top ranked SEC schools they look like this:

Alabama - 9th
LSU - 11th
Auburn - 19th
Arkansas - 30th

Oregon, the #1 team in the country, has a SOS of 72.
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:44 PM    (permalink
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I'm sure they would. If you look at the SOS of the top ranked SEC schools they look like this:

Alabama - 9th
LSU - 11th
Auburn - 19th
Arkansas - 30th

Oregon, the #1 team in the country, has a SOS of 72.
Where ya goin with this? LSU and Auburn are the only ones with realistic title chances right now, and i would even rule LSU as a long shot.
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:48 PM    (permalink
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Strength of schedule rankings.

Boise State - 73
TCU - 68

Ohio State - 59
Wisconsin - 61
Michigan State - 67

The three top Big Ten teams, Boise State, and TCU all have a strength of schedule ranking within 14 spots of each other. Out of 120 teams, that's essentially the same quality of schedule played.
Link?

There are bunch of different ways to measure SOS(Here's one and more from google). Comparing OSU to BSU wrt schedules is laughable.

SOS is heavily biased as to how someone perceives a conference. I am heavily biased against the Big Least, ACC, MWC, Sun Belt, MAC, CUSA, WAC, etc... Basically every conference outside of the big 4.

There are not enough mutual games out of 120 teams to build a strong network of rankings of all teams. This means SOS is highly suspect as ranking of teams is already highly suspect. People go on what they see and reputation. It's a weakly correlated network based on opinion. And people that make their rankings are highly opinionated already.

Rankings like Sagarin work a lot better when you have a giant statistical universe. I think they are a lot better for college basketball where there are more games, and more diverse games. The computer models for CFB just don't have enough data.



The fact that BSU and TCU are even in the conversation is a miracle.

Marshall (not bowl eligible)
Miami (FL) (bowl eligible)
Ohio (yes)
Eastern Michigan (no)
@Illinois (yes)
Indiana (no)
@Wisconsin (yes)
Purdue (yes)
@Minnesota (no)
Penn State (yes)
@Iowa (yes)
Michigan (yes)

8 bowl eligible teams. And the crappy Big10 teams have been successful out of conference against rinky dink opposition. It's when they play BCS schools that they have problems.

vs

neutral-Virginia Tech (bowl eligible)
@Wyoming (not bowl eligible)
Oregon State (not bowl eligible, but has a chance)
@New Mexico State (not bowl eligible)
Toledo (yes)
@San Jose State (not)
Louisiana Tech (not)
Hawai'i (yes)
@Idaho (no but has a chance)
Fresno State (yes)
@Nevada (yes)
Utah State (no)

5 bowl eligible teams, with possibly 2 more if they win this week.

And most of the wins that BSU's bowl eligible competition have are not against BCS league teams, but instead against mediocre teams.
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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Where ya goin with this? LSU and Auburn are the only ones with realistic title chances right now, and i would even rule LSU as a long shot.
P-L mentioned the Big Ten's best teams SOS so I provided the SEC's.

If we were to go off of anyone's rankings, I would use Sagarin's rankings.
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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Link?

There are bunch of different ways to measure SOS(Here's one and more from google). Comparing OSU to BSU wrt schedules is laughable.

SOS is heavily biased as to how someone perceives a conference. I am heavily biased against the Big Least, ACC, MWC, Sun Belt, MAC, CUSA, WAC, etc... Basically every conference outside of the big 4.

There are not enough mutual games out of 120 teams to build a strong network of rankings of all teams. This means SOS is highly suspect as ranking of teams is already highly suspect. People go on what they see and reputation. It's a weakly correlated network based on opinion. And people that make their rankings are highly opinionated already.

Rankings like Sagarin work a lot better when you have a giant statistical universe. I think they are a lot better for college basketball where there are more games, and more diverse games. The computer models for CFB just don't have enough data.



The fact that BSU and TCU are even in the conversation is a miracle.

Marshall (not bowl eligible)
Miami (FL) (bowl eligible)
Ohio (yes)
Eastern Michigan (no)
@Illinois (yes)
Indiana (no)
@Wisconsin (yes)
Purdue (yes)
@Minnesota (no)
Penn State (yes)
@Iowa (yes)
Michigan (yes)

8 bowl eligible teams. And the crappy Big10 teams have been successful out of conference against rinky dink opposition. It's when they play BCS schools that they have problems.

vs

neutral-Virginia Tech (bowl eligible)
@Wyoming (not bowl eligible)
Oregon State (not bowl eligible, but has a chance)
@New Mexico State (not bowl eligible)
Toledo (yes)
@San Jose State (not)
Louisiana Tech (not)
Hawai'i (yes)
@Idaho (no but has a chance)
Fresno State (yes)
@Nevada (yes)
Utah State (no)

5 bowl eligible teams, with possibly 2 more if they win this week.

And most of the wins that BSU's bowl eligible competition have are not against BCS league teams, but instead against mediocre teams.
Brochacho....all this is comin down because OSU is pissed they have zero chance at the NC this year.

The guys who do the SOS know SOS much better than we do. We can talk and talk and talk about whos schedule is tougher but the guys who come up with the formula and do the work are the only guys who really know. I disagree with it, you disagree with it but thats how it works.

Im not a fan of the BCS and the main reason is that they kept my Trojans out of the NC back in the day and now they are trying to keep BSU out, but im just one of the guys that wants to see BSU play for the money.
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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P-L mentioned the Big Ten's best teams SOS so I provided the SEC's.

If we were to go off of anyone's rankings, I would use Sagarin's rankings.
gotcha, thank ya sir.
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 11-24-2010, 05:13 PM    (permalink
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P-L mentioned the Big Ten's best teams SOS so I provided the SEC's.

If we were to go off of anyone's rankings, I would use Sagarin's rankings.
And those SEC SOS rankings are highly biased based on how people view the conference. They are not objective, but subjective.

The SEC plays very few quality OOC games, and even fewer away from home. And this isn't an SEC thing, it is something that is true for almost every major conference (generically, there are some BCS teams out there that have awesome OOC schedules). The feedback is reinforced since everyone in a conference plays each other, predominantly.

Conversely, the midmajors play a much more difficult OOC schedule as they are the cupcake teams that the BCS schools use to fill their schedule.

Is there really much difference between cupcakes, between the bottom 60 teams? It's noise, but that's what separates a lot of these SOS ratings.

I wonder if next year we will hear how crappy OSU's schedule is with Miami, Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, MSU. Note that 12 of the last 27 NCs were won by these teams (including OSU).

This conversation has reinforced to me how silly SOS and computer rankings are. Also, BSU plays a weak schedule. Most of the fault is their own, some of it is external.

They are a rising power, a poor man's FSU. Until they take the attitude of anytime, anywhere, they will have major question marks.

I'd argue that all of their OOC games must be against BCS schools, with at least two of those being perennial top 25 programs. And they must consistently win the vast majority of those games if they want to stay at the top of the CFB world.

Because this is what the rest of the BCS schools from the top 4 conferences do each and every year, except you have to double the number of difficult games.

This argument applies to TCU and the rest of the midmajors that have big time aspirations.

I'd love to see the power structure change to better accommodate new upstarts, and demote those that don't take CFB seriously. Much like someone mentioned earlier with how the Euro soccer leagues do it (bottom teams get demoted, top lower league teams get promoted).

Until then, the odds are stacked against the newcomers. BCS conference league play is brutal. They need to try their damnedest to prove that they belong. I have yet to see that with their scheduling.
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Old 11-24-2010, 05:37 PM    (permalink
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Brochacho....all this is comin down because OSU is pissed they have zero chance at the NC this year.

The guys who do the SOS know SOS much better than we do. We can talk and talk and talk about whos schedule is tougher but the guys who come up with the formula and do the work are the only guys who really know. I disagree with it, you disagree with it but thats how it works.

Im not a fan of the BCS and the main reason is that they kept my Trojans out of the NC back in the day and now they are trying to keep BSU out, but im just one of the guys that wants to see BSU play for the money.
Brochacho? Dear lord, why do I bother?

Anyways, I took grad level statistical analysis courses in college and I am currently working on algorithms involving Bayesian filters, general collaborative filtering, and other predictive algorithmic techniques right now for my software. I have a clue about how these algorithms work. The rankings are based on subjective information. Subjective in his algorithms and subjective in preseason rankings.

The Elo rating that the BCS uses is based off of a chess ranking algorithm developed in the 1930s.

Read here if you want to learn more.


The biggest thing that teams use to exploit these computers is called selective pairing. I.e. selecting teams that you think you can beat yet that you will get much credit for beating. Exploit this enough and you have inflated your ranking.

Sagarin argues that this information is negligible in his algorithm after a certain point. I call BS. The network of games is extremely tiny compared to the number of teams. We are talking 12 games times 120 teams. Common opponents are minimal. Time frame of wins and loses matter, yet aren't taken into account. There are tons of holes in this approach.

Yet Sagarin argues that preseason rankings wash out. This is ridiculous. All teams at the beginning of the season should be ranked even. But they are not. That information is in his system. He bases his livelihood on this, so of course he is going to argue this way.

I am not mad that OSU is out of the conversation. They don't deserve to be in it this year. They are not that good. Still, they would have dominated BSU's schedule. I think 15-20 other teams would have as well. Again, that is subjective, but based on watching decades of CFB.

Differences of opinion make this interesting, but I really don't know how anyone could honestly argue that any Big10, SEC, Big12, Pac10, or even ACC team doesn't have a significantly harder schedule than BSU or TCU.
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Old 11-24-2010, 05:39 PM    (permalink
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Also, 10 year SOS per Sagarin: OSU 35th BSU 95th.
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Old 11-24-2010, 05:43 PM    (permalink
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I'm hoping for Oregon to win the PAC10 and Wisconsin fails to win the Big 10. Then Ohio State will have to play one of those "little sisters of the poor".

edit: All of the programs doing all of the bitching have ZERO hope because two MAJOR conference teams are currently in the two spots.
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Old 11-24-2010, 05:52 PM    (permalink
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I'm hoping for Oregon to win the PAC10 and Wisconsin fails to win the Big 10. Then Ohio State will have to play one of those "little sisters of the poor".

edit: All of the programs doing all of the bitching have ZERO hope because two MAJOR conference teams are currently in the two spots.
I would like it, but it won't happen. Would make for fun pre-bowl hyperbole. Kinda like when Oregon fans were talking non-stop crap last season about their high powered attack until their O ran into a real defense.
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Old 11-24-2010, 06:08 PM    (permalink
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TCU or Boise would definitely be the favorites to beat Ohio State this year.

That's also the most realistic Rose Bowl matchup at this point.
No it's not. Unless Wisconsin loses to a Northwestern team who is without their starting QB, Ohio State has no shot at the Rose Bowl.
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Old 11-24-2010, 06:08 PM    (permalink
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No it's not. Unless Wisconsin loses to a Northwestern team who is without their starting QB, Ohio State has no shot at the Rose Bowl.
Ohio State will likely pass Wisconsin in the BCS standings. It's razon-thin at the moment, and Michigan has a stronger computer ranking than Northwestern.
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