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Old 02-15-2011, 08:15 AM    (permalink
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Default Players that Scott Wright Overrated

I respect Scott Wright's scouting ability and his football knowledge more than any other perso, so I mean this with no disrespect. I was just wondering some of the players in the past few years that Scott had a very high grade on in the early rounds that did not pan out. For example, I think he was high on Robert Ayers. If you could give some reasons why he liked them and a guess why they didn't pan out too (defensive scheme) that'd be great too.
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Old 02-15-2011, 08:41 AM    (permalink
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Oh, this should be a fun thread for me! Here come the ghosts of my past! :o

For the record, I definitely wasn't that high on Robert Ayers. I gave Ayers the benefit of the doubt and rated him as a late first rounder based on his performance as a senior and at the Senior Bowl. However, the concern was that he was a "paycheck" player who only turned it on when he saw the dollar signs. Based on his final year, Ayers was a Top 10 pick. Based on the first three years of his career, Ayers was a mid-rounder at best.
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Old 02-15-2011, 08:44 AM    (permalink
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Scott ranks 'em, he doesn't coach em up!!lol
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Old 02-15-2011, 08:52 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Scott Wright View Post
Based on his final year, Ayers was a Top 10 pick.
Really? He had a decent amount of tackles for loss (15.5), but he had a measly three sacks all season and all came against mediocre to bad teams (One against Mississippi State, two against Vanderbilt). I'd be hard-pressed to remember a UT game that year where I thought, "Wow, this kid is a stud," and it seemed like he was somewhat limited athletically. Fast forward two years later, and he's got 1.5 sacks and doesn't do much of anything. If you can't rush the passer in college, your odds aren't very good in the pros.
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Old 02-15-2011, 09:11 AM    (permalink
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Not many guys that weren't consensus highly ranked guys, but Brady Quinn at 2 overall stands out, though I had him ranked similarly.
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Old 02-15-2011, 09:15 AM    (permalink
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Really? He had a decent amount of tackles for loss (15.5), but he had a measly three sacks all season and all came against mediocre to bad teams (One against Mississippi State, two against Vanderbilt). I'd be hard-pressed to remember a UT game that year where I thought, "Wow, this kid is a stud," and it seemed like he was somewhat limited athletically. Fast forward two years later, and he's got 1.5 sacks and doesn't do much of anything. If you can't rush the passer in college, your odds aren't very good in the pros.
Don't forget he gained alot of steam at the Senior Bowl with a dominating week as well, and we all know just how quickly that can fast track you into the first round.
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Old 02-15-2011, 09:35 AM    (permalink
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Really? He had a decent amount of tackles for loss (15.5), but he had a measly three sacks all season and all came against mediocre to bad teams (One against Mississippi State, two against Vanderbilt). I'd be hard-pressed to remember a UT game that year where I thought, "Wow, this kid is a stud," and it seemed like he was somewhat limited athletically. Fast forward two years later, and he's got 1.5 sacks and doesn't do much of anything. If you can't rush the passer in college, your odds aren't very good in the pros.
He looked great against Bama. He was making plays all over the field and gave Andre Smith all he could handle. Not that that changes what you had to say, but he did standout in that game.
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Old 02-15-2011, 09:43 AM    (permalink
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Brady Quinn and Jimmy Clausen
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Old 02-15-2011, 09:51 AM    (permalink
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I thought Ayers was pretty good his Senior year even without the numbers. I really didn't think he was a good value at 18, but there was talk he could have gone even higher out there at the time. Think this discussion would be a little bit different if the Broncos had run a 4-3 the past few years. Maybe not completely different, but OLB really is not a good fit for him at all.
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Old 02-15-2011, 10:59 AM    (permalink
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if that was an honest question, you can find everything you need here:

http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Archives.php
Scott how did you miss so badly in 2008 with Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis? 30 and 32 in the RBs. Come on it was clear as day that they were going to be stars ;)
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Old 02-15-2011, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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Here are some that Scott, and most of the rest of us, appear wrong about:

Tim Couch
LaVar Arrington
Courtney Brown
David Terrell
Joey Harrington
Charles Rodgers
Robert Gallery
Alex Smith
Reggie Bush
Brady Quinn
Vernon Gholston
Andre Smtih

Scott looks very good when you look at his overall rankings, however.
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Old 02-15-2011, 11:38 AM    (permalink
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Ayers is a 4-3 DE struggling as a 3-4 OLB. But he is not a very good player. He does not have a good variety of moves, using an ineffective bull rush most of the time. And he has a very slow first step. Maybe he will improve in his more natural position, but he wanted to be a LB, got the oppotunity and failed.
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Old 02-15-2011, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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Brady Quinn was one for sure.
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Old 02-15-2011, 11:48 AM    (permalink
Scott Wright
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
Here are some that Scott, and most of the rest of us, appear wrong about:

Tim Couch
LaVar Arrington
Courtney Brown
David Terrell
Joey Harrington
Charles Rodgers
Robert Gallery
Alex Smith
Reggie Bush
Brady Quinn
Vernon Gholston
Andre Smtih

Scott looks very good when you look at his overall rankings, however.
I kind of count Tim Couch as a win for me considering he was the #1 overall pick and I had him rated as a mid first rounder. Arrington was a very good NFL player before injuries got him. I don't count Reggie Bush as a bust either. One thing that haunts me is Cortland Finnegan, who I didn't even have in my rankings and he is now one of the better cornerbacks in the league.
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Old 02-15-2011, 12:05 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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I kind of count Tim Couch as a win for me considering he was the #1 overall pick and I had him rated as a mid first rounder. Arrington was a very good NFL player before injuries got him. I don't count Reggie Bush as a bust either. One thing that haunts me is Cortland Finnegan, who I didn't even have in my rankings and he is now one of the better cornerbacks in the league.
I can see an argument for Couch, but I still say you were wrong about Arrington and Bush. Neither of those guys have lived up to being rated the top players in their respective Drafts. I totally bought into Arrington at the time, but I never understood why so many people expected Bush to be a great player in the NFL. He's a WR playing RB. His lack of production as a runner and struggles with injuries aren't just bad luck.
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Old 02-15-2011, 12:09 PM    (permalink
Scott Wright
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I can see an argument for Couch, but I still say you were wrong about Arrington and Bush. Neither of those guys have lived up to being rated the top players in their respective Drafts. I totally bought into Arrington at the time, but I never understood why so many people expected Bush to be a great player in the NFL. He's a WR playing RB. His lack of production as a runner and struggles with injuries aren't just bad luck.
I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.

Anyone who thought he was going to be an elite starting running back was kidding themselves. Bush is and always was a versatile, all-around threat best suited for a third down role.
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Old 02-15-2011, 12:11 PM    (permalink
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I remember thinking Brady Quinn was the next Tom Brady. I don't think I ever was THAT wrong about a qb prospect ever.
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Old 02-15-2011, 12:24 PM    (permalink
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Malcolm Kelly and Limas Sweed but I was high on them as well.
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Old 02-15-2011, 12:35 PM    (permalink
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I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.

Anyone who thought he was going to be an elite starting running back was kidding themselves. Bush is and always was a versatile, all-around threat best suited for a third down role.
Are you kidding? People didn't peg Reggie Bush as an elite starting running back, they pegged him as one of the all time greats.


There were people proclaiming him (not actual scouts obviously) as the best running back prospect ever (or at least since O.J. Simpson) and one of the best prospects anyone had ever seen. Ranking him with draft prospects of the prior ten years and balking at the mention of Ryan Leaf because after all, he was drafted second.

I've been following the draft closely for about eight years and was at least aware of it for the seven years prior to that.

In that time, I have never seen a prospect as incredibly hyped as Reggie Bush.

Not Palmer, not Peyton (not after Tennessee lost to Nebraska anyway), not Eli, not Megatron, no one.

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Old 02-15-2011, 12:58 PM    (permalink
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Really? He had a decent amount of tackles for loss (15.5), but he had a measly three sacks all season and all came against mediocre to bad teams (One against Mississippi State, two against Vanderbilt). I'd be hard-pressed to remember a UT game that year where I thought, "Wow, this kid is a stud," and it seemed like he was somewhat limited athletically. Fast forward two years later, and he's got 1.5 sacks and doesn't do much of anything. If you can't rush the passer in college, your odds aren't very good in the pros.
There's a lot more to determining a players worth than sack count.
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Old 02-15-2011, 01:18 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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Originally Posted by Scott Wright View Post
I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.

Anyone who thought he was going to be an elite starting running back was kidding themselves. Bush is and always was a versatile, all-around threat best suited for a third down role.
So if I told you 5 years ago that Reggie Bush would have 33 total TDs and around 5,000 total yards after 5 years in the league, you wouldn't be at least a little surprised by his lack of production?
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Old 02-15-2011, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Scott Wright View Post
I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.

Anyone who thought he was going to be an elite starting running back was kidding themselves. Bush is and always was a versatile, all-around threat best suited for a third down role.
You know I appreciate the fact that no one is going to bat 1.000 and there will be big hits and big misses, but you had Reggie Bush rated as the #1 overall player in the entire 2006 draft. If all you envisioned was a versatile, all-around threat best suited for a third down role, there had to be a ton of players you would have rated higher purely on their eventual contributions. D'Brickashaw Ferguson had the tools to be at the very least a decent pass protecting left tackle. That alone would be worth more than what you had Bush bringing to the proverbial table.

2006 was a nightmare for draftniks, NFL teams and the players.

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Originally Posted by Scott Wright
1. Reggie Bush, RB, Southern Cal
4. Matt Leinart, QB, Southern Cal

7. Vince Young, QB, Texas
8. Michael Huff, S, Texas
11. Winston Justice, OT, Southern Cal
13. Ernie Sims. OLB, Florida State
14. Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech
19. Chad Jackson, WR, Florida
20. Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
22. Bobby Carpenter, OLB, Ohio State
23. Lendale White, RB, Southern Cal
27. Daniel Bullocks, S, Nebraska
28. Jason Allen, S, Tennessee
31. Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia
37. Darnell Bing, S, Southern Cal
Good God you were sucking down the USC Kool-Aid. Winston Justice might be the best of the group.
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Old 02-15-2011, 01:41 PM    (permalink
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There's a lot more to determining a players worth than sack count.
Yup, there are. Unfortunately, all of the other first-round prospects seem to be able to rush the passer and do other things.
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Old 02-15-2011, 02:21 PM    (permalink
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Yup, there are. Unfortunately, all of the other first-round prospects seem to be able to rush the passer and do other things.
Sack totals aren't always indicative of how active a pass rusher you are. Ayers was moved around a lot at Tennessee and got significant looks at defensive tackle and that hurt his sack totals a bit. He still beat his man with regularity his Senior year.
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Old 02-15-2011, 02:21 PM    (permalink
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I tend to agree with what everyone else has said about Bush, I'm a Saints fan and he is just not a great player by any means. He's a pretty good weapon to have, but honestly he's been a guy who if you picked up in the 4th round he would have been a decent value. But he's barely a number 2 back, much less a guy who splits time. His actual running ability has regressed since his rookie year and right now about all he is, is an injury prone return man.

To say he's not a bust at number 2 overall and all the hype is insane.
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