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Old 03-27-2011, 11:46 AM    (permalink
BSims
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Default Ranking movement

You mention some of the moves are drastic. I'm sure I'm not alone in saying - can you show us which ones by using +- # of spots after each person in the rankings? If it clutters up the main page rankings maybe toss them here in the forums.

Either way thanks Scott. Keep up the good work.
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Old 03-27-2011, 01:47 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by metafour View Post
Bammer fan. Is Dareus a cheater too? He willfully attended an agent-sponsored party and actually got suspended because of it. That is a bad teammate right there.
Not a Bammer fan at all. Georgia Tech and UCF actually. And what Newton did was much worse. Dareus goes to a party, Cam Newton lies about not being pimped out by his father. Cam Newton also cheated in college and then there is that whole laptop situation. Darues' character questions are dwarfed by those of Newton.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 03-27-2011, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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peterson has been my #1 for a year now.

aaron williams to S is kind of premature to me
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"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

The hell he won't, lol.
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Old 03-27-2011, 09:38 PM    (permalink
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aaron williams to S is kind of premature to me
This is my biggest problem with the update, albeit not that big at all, I'm just a bit confused.

From #31 in Scott's most recent mock:

Quote:
Ike Taylor is a free agent and even though he is expected to return the Steelers pass defense left something to be desired at times last season. In fact, outside of Taylor the Steelers may not have another corner who would start for most teams. The Texas program has produced a lot of NFL defensive backs over the years and Aaron Williams is primed to carry on that proud tradition. A terrific athlete with a nice blend of size and speed, Williams would be a great fit in Pittsburgh’s scheme and could slide right into the lineup opposite Taylor.
This is something I completely agree with, but I feel that now you moved Williams to safety in the rankings almost to "balance the power" between the strong corner class and putrid safety class.

If Williams plays safety in the NFL, which he may, he'd be the best safety from this draft - I can admit that is true. However I still do think he's a corner prospect and has no better chance to play safety than Patrick Peterson or Jimmy Smith do.



Also one thing that jumps out to me is the love for Stanzi. You have him at #43 in the latest mock, two picks behind Ponder and four behind Mallet - He's #74 overall, while Mallet is 44 and Ponder is 48. I understand the positional value at QB is higher than any other position and obviously the picks in a mock don't always follow someone's rankings, but not only do I think you have him mocked high but I think you still have him high at 74. He's probably a borderline 3rd round prospect at this point to be generous, and it's unfair to put him ahead of Kaepernick (99) and Dalton, who I guess didn't crack the top-100 of your rankings.


Edit - Also, if you could explain the thought process behind the OT rankings - the top-5 (Castonzo, Smith, Solder, Carimi, Sherrod) is pretty much different for everybody who follows the draft, and I know you were recently talking up Smith as a top-15 pick, so what did you see in Castonzo to put him above him?

Not saying I disagree with the OT rankings because you can literally pull the 5 names out of a hat in any order, but what was your train of thought and did any of the top-5 guys really change your opinion of them in any major way since your last rankings?

Of everything I've said here, I'd be really happy if you could explain that.

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Old 03-27-2011, 09:58 PM    (permalink
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I like the delta rank suggestion.

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Old 03-27-2011, 11:44 PM    (permalink
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[quote=GaMeTiMe;2564764]I feel that now you moved Williams to safety in the rankings almost to "balance the power" between the strong corner class and putrid safety class.

If Williams plays safety in the NFL, which he may, he'd be the best safety from this draft - I can admit that is true. However I still do think he's a corner prospect and has no better chance to play safety than Patrick Peterson or Jimmy Smith do.[/quote

I think Aaron Williams falls into the Malcolm Jenkins category in that you can start him at corner and if it doesn't work out he's capable of excelling at safety. Keep in mind that Williams basically has the exact same measurables whens it comes to height / weight / speed as UCLA's Rahim Moore, who everyone basically regards as the top safety prospect in this class.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GaMeTiMe View Post
Also one thing that jumps out to me is the love for Stanzi. You have him at #43 in the latest mock, two picks behind Ponder and four behind Mallet - He's #74 overall, while Mallet is 44 and Ponder is 48. I understand the positional value at QB is higher than any other position and obviously the picks in a mock don't always follow someone's rankings, but not only do I think you have him mocked high but I think you still have him high at 74. He's probably a borderline 3rd round prospect at this point to be generous, and it's unfair to put him ahead of Kaepernick (99) and Dalton, who I guess didn't crack the top-100 of your rankings.
I will fully admit that I pushed Stanzi up in my mock draft simply because the Vikings are desperate for a quarterback and both Mallett and Ponder were gone. I also considered strongly Kaepernick in that spot. With that said, I feel Stanzi is a solid third round pick, both on my board and in the leagues eyes. I think at least one of Stanzi / Kaepernick will wind up in Round 2. As for Dalton, I don't see all the love. Dalton is a backup in the NFL, at best.


Quote:
Originally Posted by GaMeTiMe View Post
Edit - Also, if you could explain the thought process behind the OT rankings - the top-5 (Castonzo, Smith, Solder, Carimi, Sherrod) is pretty much different for everybody who follows the draft, and I know you were recently talking up Smith as a top-15 pick, so what did you see in Castonzo to put him above him?

Not saying I disagree with the OT rankings because you can literally pull the 5 names out of a hat in any order, but what was your train of thought and did any of the top-5 guys really change your opinion of them in any major way since your last rankings?

Of everything I've said here, I'd be really happy if you could explain that.
Whenever I work on my rankings those Top 5 offensives tackles are what I struggle with the most, and second-place isn't even close. Basically the order I'd give you might change based on the time of day you ask me! When I was writing the new rankings out on paper I actually had Smith ahead of Castonzo but when it was time to input it into the web page I changed it. The ultimate reason was that Castonzo, while not quite as naturally talented as Smith, is more of a sure-thing and I am notoriously conservative. With Castonzo there are no concerns about his ability to play the left side, about his intelligence, etc. and he also has a fantastic pedigree. There is no doubt in my mind that Castonzo is going to start in the league for a decade, whereas Smith is more of a high risk / high reward type. Both are in my Top 20 overall though. As for the next group, I went Carimi third because like Castonzo I think he's a very safe pick and he really impressed me at the Senior Bowl. Solder is an engima who has the sheer talent to be #1 on the list and a Top 10 overall pick, I just don't see it on the field nearly enough. Solder is a true Boom or Bust prospect. As anyone who has been following the site this year probably knows, I do like Sherrod a lot though and nearly put him third.
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Old 03-28-2011, 10:04 AM    (permalink
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i dont see how Newton is at 26 but gabbert is at 8. these are basically the same prospect, they should both be in the top 10 or they should both be in the 25 area. Spread QBs with great upside but alot to learn.

the intangibles are not an issue with Newton. If anything Newton will be able to command an NFL locker room better than Gabbert. Newton's won big games on big stages. Gabbert hasn't.

I also wonder how Newton's intangibles are so worrying but Robert Quinn taking a year off is no problem? How is what Newton accused of any different from what Quinn was suspended for?
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Old 03-28-2011, 02:56 PM    (permalink
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I don't remember Aaron Williams playing any safety in college and I probably would as I watch every UT game possible. However, the transition is overrated. Make no mistake, free safety is lower profile position for a reason. It's similar to asking a short-stop to move to second base.
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Old 03-28-2011, 03:58 PM    (permalink
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Curious as to why so down on Stefen Wisniewski
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Old 03-28-2011, 04:17 PM    (permalink
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Im just doing a list of guys id have higher and lower at a few positions, no need to even react:

QB
Higher:
TJ Jates (id have him 10th qb)
Taylor Potts (12th)

Lower:
Ricky Stanzi (8th)
Tyrod Taylor (16th)

RB:
Higher:
Da'Rel Scott (12th)
Vai Taua (16th)

Lower:
Ryan Williams (8th)
Even Royster (35th)

WR
Higher:
Terrance Tolliver (12th)
Ricardo Lockette (25th)

Lower:
Titus Young (7th, actually thought I was high on him)
Kealoha Pilares (40th)

OLB
Higher:
Eric Gordon (15th)
Michael Morgan (18th)

Lower:
Akeem Ayers(6th, I just dont like him, was ranked up there on the premise of him blowing up the combine but he actually was bad there, have no clue why people rank him that high)
Colin McCarthey (20th, really not high on him, mediocre tackler, barely athletic at all, suprised he got so overrated)

gonna add more
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Old 03-28-2011, 04:19 PM    (permalink
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i dont see how Newton is at 26 but gabbert is at 8. these are basically the same prospect, they should both be in the top 10 or they should both be in the 25 area. Spread QBs with great upside but alot to learn.

the intangibles are not an issue with Newton. If anything Newton will be able to command an NFL locker room better than Gabbert. Newton's won big games on big stages. Gabbert hasn't.

I also wonder how Newton's intangibles are so worrying but Robert Quinn taking a year off is no problem? How is what Newton accused of any different from what Quinn was suspended for?
you really cant dismiss the character flaws of newton like that.
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Old 03-28-2011, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
i dont see how Newton is at 26 but gabbert is at 8. these are basically the same prospect, they should both be in the top 10 or they should both be in the 25 area. Spread QBs with great upside but alot to learn.

the intangibles are not an issue with Newton. If anything Newton will be able to command an NFL locker room better than Gabbert. Newton's won big games on big stages. Gabbert hasn't.

I also wonder how Newton's intangibles are so worrying but Robert Quinn taking a year off is no problem? How is what Newton accused of any different from what Quinn was suspended for?
I'd agree the QBs should be ranked pretty much together and the varitation on how people rank them would probably support that. For me i'd have Gabbert, Locker and Newton all in the 10-15 range.
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Old 03-30-2011, 09:34 AM    (permalink
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For those who were interested, I've updated the rankings and player pages with heights, weights and forties from the Scouting Combine. In mid-April I'll go through and update to reflect Pro Day results for those who either didn't work out or weren't invited to Indy.
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Old 04-05-2011, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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Default ranking movement

I had a copy of the previous rankings so here are the ranking movements for each player. Of note

UP
  • Christian Ponder +50
  • James Carpenter +30
  • Jabaal Sheard +26
  • Greg Romeus +25
  • Johnny Patrick +19
  • Orlando Franklin +19
  • Mike Pouncey +18

DOWN
  • Jeremy Beal -36
  • Jonathan Baldwin -18
  • Stefen Wisniewski -23
  • Cam Newton -13

1. Patrick Peterson CBL.S.U. +1
2. A.J. Green WRGeorgia -1
3. Marcell Dareus DTAlabama +1
4. Von Miller OLBTexas A&M +4
5. Robert Quinn DENorth Carolina -2
6. Julio Jones WRAlabama +3
7. Da'Quan Bowers DEClemson -2
8. Blaine Gabbert QBMissouri +2
9. Prince Amukamara CBNebraska -2
10. Aldon Smith DEMissouri +1
11. Nick Fairley DTAuburn -5
12. Cameron Jordan DECalifornia 0
13. Anthony Costanzo OT BC +9
14. J.J. Watt DEWisconsin +1
15. Ryan Kerrigan DEPurdue -1
16. Tyron Smith OT USC 0
17. Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa +1
18. Mark Ingram RBAlabama -1
19. Mike Pouncey OGFlorida +18
20. Brandon Harris CBMiami (FL) +1
21. Jake Locker QBWashington -1
22. Gabe Carimi OTWisconsin +9
23. Corey Liuget DTIllinois +6
24. Nate Solder OTColorado +4
25. Kyle Rudolph TENotre Dame +1
26. Cam Newton QBAuburn -13
27. Aaron Williams STexas +3
28. Cameron Heyward DEOhio St. -5
29. Derek Sherrod OTMississippi St. -4
30. Stephen Paea DTOregon St. -6
31. Jimmy Smith CBColorado +4
32. Muhammad Wilkerson DTTemple +12
33. Akeem Ayers OLBUCLA -14
34. Danny Watkins OGBaylor +11
35. Allen Bailey DEMiami (FL) -8
36. Christian Ballard DTIowa 0
37. Bruce Carter OLBNorth Carolina +5
38. Orlando Franklin OTMiami (FL) +19
39. Justin Houston OLBGeorgia -6
40. Lance Kendricks TEWisconsin +8
41. Brooks Reed DEArizona+12
42. Phil Taylor DTBaylor +12
43. Rahim Moore SUCLA -9
44. Ryan Mallett QBArkansas -6
45. Ras-I Dowling CBVirginia +10
46. Marcus Cannon OGT.C.U. -3
47. Titus Young WRBoise St. +2
48. Christian Ponder QBFlorida St. +50
49. Jabaal Sheard DEPittsburgh +26
50. Jon Baldwin WRPittsburgh -18
51. Johnny Patrick CBLouisville +19
52. Rodney Hudson OGFlorida St. -5
53. Marvin Austin DTNorth Carolina +3
54. Torrey Smith WRMaryland -8
55. Ben Ijalana OTVillanova -15
56. Clint Boling OGGeorgia +5
57. Randall Cobb WRKentucky +10
58. Mikel Leshoure RBIllinois +1
59. Leonard Hankerson WRMiami (FL) +4
60. Martez Wilson ILBIllinois -10
61. Ryan Williams RBVirginia Tech +10
62. Jerrel Jernigan WRTroy -10
63. Curtis Brown CBTexas +3
64. Stefen Wisniewski CPenn St. -23
65. Mason Foster OLBWashington -7
66. Drake Nevis DT L.S.U. -27
67. Kendall Hunter RBOklahoma St. +1
68. Edmond Gates WRAbilene Christian +13
69. Jurrell Casey DTUSC -7
70. James Carpenter OGAlabama NR
71. Greg Romeus DEPittsburgh +25
72. Luke Stocker TETennessee +4
73. Quan Sturdivant ILBNorth Carolina -4
74. Ricky Stanzi QBIowa +14
75. Daniel Thomas RBKansas St. NR
76. Greg Little WRNorth Carolina +1
77. Jarvis Jenkins DTClemson +17
78. Brandon Burton CBUtah -18
79. James Brewer OTIndiana NR
80. DeMarco Murray RBOklahoma -6
81. Chimdi Chekwa CBOhio St. NR
82. Greg Jones ILBMichigan St. -17
83. Mark Herzlich OLBBoston College -10
84. Niles Paul WRNebraska +3
85. Chris Carter OLBFresno St. NR
86. Jordan Todman RBConnecticut -1
87. Shareece Wright CBUSC NR
88. Kenrick Ellis DTHampton +4
89. Tandon Doss WRIndiana NR
90. Shane Vereen RBCalifornia +5
91. Sam Acho DETexas NR
92. Dontay Moch OLBNevada -1
93. Greg Salas WRHawaii NR
94. Taiwan Jones RB E Washington -4
95. Marcus Gilbert OTFlorida NR
96. Kelvin Sheppard ILBL.S.U. -17
97. Will Rackley OGLehigh NR
98. Davon House CBNew Mexico St. -18
99. Colin Kaepernick QBNevada NR
100. Jeremy Beal DE Oklahoma -36
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Old 05-01-2012, 11:52 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
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Scott Wright's Top 100 Overall Prospects

1. Patrick Peterson, CB, L.S.U.
2. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
3. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
4. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
5. Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
6. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
7. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
8. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

I hope this is as good a place as any to post this.... I didn't want to create a new thread for it. I enjoy your work immensely and appreciate what you do let's start off with that.

however, on the podcast today, I felt like you started going for a bit of CYA type of angle with your comment about them possibly ruining Gabbert. I would venture to guess that the vast majority of us who care about this stuff or spend any time watching football didn't like Gabbert.

I never understood it. I would hope you can just admit the guy was never that great of a talent and never had any business being selected there, rather than going for the "they ruined him" angle.

I don't think I was a member here at that time or just didn't post about it here, but my opinion can be found here, in the thread entitled "call out your bust":

http://forums.traditionsportsonline....4/#post-554607


Call out a guy that you think's gonna be a complete bust.

I'm gonna say Blaine Gabbert. Every year there is a QB that starts getting hyped up by draftnicks, and they all look at each other and go "yeah!" and then start repeating it and I dunno... I always wish I could figure out who was the first guy to speak up about the guy... This guy came from NOWHERE. Yeah I knew he was more physically talented than Chase Daniel... I saw him play against San Diego State and maybe a couple other games during his career. He never stood out. Unlike Jake Locker I never heard somebody say "one day this guy will be a first round pick."

I feel that these people are almost being paid to hype these guys up and essentially "move up" the smart teams in the mid to late first round. If they can get the dipshit teams to think that Aaron Curry is the "safest" pick, or that J.P. Losman is "in that first round group" it is obviously very worthwhile to those smarter teams.

What else could it be!? I haven't seen any highlights of Gabbert that even looked that great. His throwing motion looks like a high school kid. He had decent measurable athleticism but certainly didn't look impressive to me on the field. His stats are DWARFED by his predecessor, who ran the same system and is not in the NFL. It's not like the Big12 really plays defense anymore, I would have expected him to light it up.

I think he's gonna suck.




Please, I don't want anybody posting a picture of a cookie... Being right about one guy doesn't make me any more knowledgeable than anybody else, and I come here to learn from you guys, but just take your medicine when necessary, that's my only request.
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Old 05-02-2012, 12:08 AM    (permalink
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Old 05-02-2012, 12:14 AM    (permalink
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Well played... I can't see your troll image but I am not trying to troll. Just don't start with this "they ruined him" stuff. They ruined their team with the pick.
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Old 05-02-2012, 12:15 AM    (permalink
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Lots of people here thought Gabbert would suck.
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Old 05-02-2012, 12:19 AM    (permalink
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Lots of people here thought Gabbert would suck.
Yeah... when I did a search for Gabbert, that is what I found. Vast majority were saying that. My point isn't "look at me I got it right" my point is do the right thing and admit that he never had any business being a top pick.

edit: i never should have posted my opinion on him that was probably pointless to what I was trying to say.
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Old 05-02-2012, 12:20 AM    (permalink
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Well played... I can't see your troll image but I am not trying to troll. Just don't start with this "they ruined him" stuff. They ruined their team with the pick.
:D

To be honest, Jacksonville hasn't done a good job of developing him, but as you and Caddy said, many people felt he wasn't a good prospect to begin with, and that is clearly pointing itself out right now. I honestly didn't think too highly of him, but I didn't think he'd be this bad. He's the worst starting QB in the league.

Everyone hits and misses sometimes. I thought Taylor Mays was gonna be a good "in the box" safety, so... :(
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Old 05-02-2012, 12:47 AM    (permalink
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I actually thought he would be a decent QB.

*runs and hides*
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Old 05-02-2012, 06:25 AM    (permalink
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I'm not ready to classify Blaine Gabbert as a bust. Do I think he should of been a top 15 selection? absolutely not, but I can see why teams fell in love with him. Mobile Quarterbacks with his kind of arm don't just grow on trees. I think to many of us have gotten spoiled over the years watching Newton and Dalton and Bradford's rookie season and we've forgotten that it actually takes Quarterbacks a few seasons to become successful in the nfl.

And don't tell me, blah blah his pocket presence is horrible......I know this, I've watched him play in every game at Missouri. I just think we need to give him time, Blackmon will deffinetly help.
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Old 05-02-2012, 07:30 AM    (permalink
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And don't tell me, blah blah his pocket presence is horrible......I know this, I've watched him play in every game at Missouri.
Honestly, I'm not so worried about his pocket presence. That comes with experience. What worries me the most with Blaine Gabbert is the fact that he looked so defeated at times last year. The looks on his face just conveyed such defeat. You don't get anywhere in the League without confidence, especially as a QB. I'm just wondering if opposing defenses have successfully stripped him of his.

That being said, Jacksonville's entire offense was horrendous last year. Not just Gabbert. The only safety valve they've had for the last few years has been MJD. Gabbert can't help that nobody blocks and his receivers don't catch and his TE is terrible. He also can't help that that defense didn't really stop anyone last year. They're just a plain bad team. They need a whole lot of improvement, and that starts again this year. It's a shame they wasted a 3rd round pick on a Punter, but they did get 2 pretty decent players with their first two picks. We'll see, but I don't think they'll be too much improved this year.

Probably for that reason, Gabbert might be doomed in Jax. They are still 2-3 years away from playing winning football, and that's if they play their cards right. Gabbert will be blamed, he'll leave, and they'll suck even more than they do now.
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Old 05-02-2012, 03:45 PM    (permalink
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I'm not ready to classify Blaine Gabbert as a bust. Do I think he should of been a top 15 selection? absolutely not, but I can see why teams fell in love with him. Mobile Quarterbacks with his kind of arm don't just grow on trees. I think to many of us have gotten spoiled over the years watching Newton and Dalton and Bradford's rookie season and we've forgotten that it actually takes Quarterbacks a few seasons to become successful in the nfl.

And don't tell me, blah blah his pocket presence is horrible......I know this, I've watched him play in every game at Missouri. I just think we need to give him time, Blackmon will deffinetly help.

I actually felt that his arm was really overrated. He has a 1-speed arm and you never see him reach back for any extra zip - sometimes you need to zip it. When the field got condensed and there were fewer easy targets his arm didn't play as well for me. He was ungodly bad in the red zone at Missouri for this and probably a myriad of other reasons, and although I didn't see him play much last year, that is a big key for an NFL QB.

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Old 05-02-2012, 04:01 PM    (permalink
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It's a bit of both when it comes to Gabbert. He has been terrible, but so have his receivers.

He still would of sucked if he had good receivers, but i dont think he would get the hate he does atm.
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