Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

[FUNBUNCHER]

What's so great about Matt Barkley?? He was touted as the best prep prospect out the state of California since.....Elway.

Pure hype comparison. I don't see an all-world talent in Barkley, maybe a stronger arm than Sanchez, but really I don't get what it is that makes people even attempt to compare Barkley to Luck.

Maybe it's too early, maybe at the end of the 2011 season Barkley more clearly defines himself as a pro prospect, but right now the only thing I see that he has over someone like Dalton/Sanchez is arm strength, which still matters, but still.

[TACKLE]

Originally Posted by deepthoughtlife

My brothers and I scouted Andrew Luck this offseason before it was clear he was going back to school, and I was honestly disappointed. You see, Stanford is my third or fourth favorite school in Football (higher academically), and when I watched him during the season, I was sure he was an amazing prospect, but further examination didn't (quite) bear it out.

His arm is very good, but not great. His accuracy is excellent, but rarely pinpoint. His mechanics are mostly good, but he doesn't point his plant foot right (he under-rotates it), which leads to an awkward at times delivery as he is forced to over-rotate the rest of his body, or flat out miss the throw; to his credit, the latter was very rare. At this point, I have to rate him well behind Sam Bradford as a prospect, though that isn't much of a knock, (I was a huge fan from the moment I saw Bradford play, and IMO the only legitimate concern about Bradford was the injury).

As a Niners fan, it pleases me greatly that Luck would teach Kaepernick, who I think was a great pick, Harbaugh's system. Kaepernick may have been the most talented QB in this draft. Despite this, I very much hope Kaepernick is given his year or two learning on the bench behind Alex Smith, who can be effective if Harbaugh lets him play to his strengths, which are coincidentally very similar to Colin's, though Colin is obviously a far better runner, with a far stronger arm.

Luck is a legitimate first overall prospect, but he might not even be the most talented QB to have started the last two years in the Pac 10 (now Pac 12, of course). I'd have to give that to Matt Barkley, though Barkley would need to prove something this season to even be in contention with Luck as a prospect.

Luck would have been the surefire top QB in this class. Unlike Locker, people don't like Luck because he could be good, but because he is good. That makes him falling out of the top unlikely; someone will have to take it from him.

I too am still having a hard time convincing myself that Luck is this all-world, once in a decade QB prospect. Maybe my expectations are a little too high but every time I've broke down a game of his play-by-play, I've come away a little underwhelmed. The velocity on his throws are alright but will certainly need to improve moving forward. I also have concerns about the fact that at times he can be overly conservative, almost tentative when it comes to driving the ball downfield or into tight windows. Maybe its just what the system dictates but I'd like to see him just let it loose and be more confident and decisive throwing the ball downfield. Again, there is a ton too like about him and I really believe that he's the top QB prospect and one of the top overall prospects as it stands now heading into the 2012 draft. I just don't see him as the "LeBron James of quarterback prospects" that some are making him out to be.....and I'm trying hard to see it, honest.

[deepthoughtlife]

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER

What's so great about Matt Barkley?? He was touted as the best prep prospect out the state of California since.....Elway.

Pure hype comparison. I don't see an all-world talent in Barkley, maybe a stronger arm than Sanchez, but really I don't get what it is that makes people even attempt to compare Barkley to Luck.

Maybe it's too early, maybe at the end of the 2011 season Barkley more clearly defines himself as a pro prospect, but right now the only thing I see that he has over someone like Dalton/Sanchez is arm strength, which still matters, but still.

Pure hype matters not a whit in my evaluation of Barkley. Luck is currently more hyped -did you notice?

Barkley is a smart, strong armed, highly accurate quarterback, who deals with pressure very well for the most part. He has had a great deal of success on a quickly declining USC team. He is clearly a very good quarterback, despite the fact that he was just a true sophmore last year, and he showed flashes of Brilliance. His supporting cast skill position players were good, but clearly not making him look better than he was. He still needs improvement to meet my projections of talent, but there is always some element of projection in saying how good a very young player was and is*.

One very large difference between Barkley and Dalton is that the latter actually made a lot more basic mistakes, despite a lot more experience (True Soph vs. RS Senior). Barkley also has a bigger arm of course, but is also more accurate physically.

Sanchez was a high pick, and as a USC fan, I was happy for him, but he never even approached the level of talent Barkley displays. If I had Sanchez and Barkley, I would start Barkley every time.**

*It takes no projection to say that Peyton Manning or Tom Brady are very good, and that JaMarcus Russel is not.

**Unless I found out I was completely wrong, of course.

[the natural]

One thing that struck me was the fact that Luck attended the same Nike scout camps as most of the other top quarterback prospects of recent years, and they put together a video of the top 10 performers. He wasn't on it, while nearly all the other top young quarterbacks were. Stafford was #1, Aaron Murray, Matt Barkley, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford were on the list. It was funny because you could see Luck in the background of the videos of some of the other players.

[niel89]

High school was a long time ago. Some high school camp numbers mean nothing compared to the last 2 years of game tape.

[wordofi]

Am I the only person who doesn't like Andrew Luck's throwing motion? It just looks terrible. Other than that, I don't see any problems. Is he going to have to fix his throwing motion?

[JHL6719]

Originally Posted by wordofi

Am I the only person who doesn't like Andrew Luck's throwing motion? It just looks terrible. Other than that, I don't see any problems. Is he going to have to fix his throwing motion?

He does seem to drop the football below his waist, but it's not a "looping" motion anything like you would normally see with a college quarterback who has that tendancy.

It's almost a straight down-straight up move. I don't see any wasted motion there. I think it could very well depend on who his QB coach and OC are as to whether or not he's asked to change it.

Harbaugh may stress a completely different set of fundamentals.

[dannyz]

When is the Peyton Manning Passing Academy? Who gets to go to that? is there Coverage of it? I am Sure Andrew Luck will Light it up.

[TACKLE]

Originally Posted by dannyz

When is the Peyton Manning Passing Academy? Who gets to go to that? is there Coverage of it? I am Sure Andrew Luck will Light it up.

I bet he won't. It's for seniors only.

[dannyz]

Originally Posted by TACKLE

I bet he won't. It's for seniors only.

I don't think so. He was there Last Year.

[niel89]

Originally Posted by njx9

why are we still talking about gabbert? just ignore the troll.

^This.

I'm not going to argue with the natural anymore about Gabbert. A Gabbert v Luck argument is joke. Gabbert couldn't even be the top QB in his own class.

[Shane P. Hallam]

Let me pose this question:

If you had to put down $100 right now on the Over/Under at 1.5 of what pick Andrew Luck will be when he is drafted, what would you bet on?

[njx9]

whichever one you think means being picked at 2 or later (is that over, because the numbers higher, or under, because he's getting drafted lower?).

[niel89]

I'll take the under. Luck looks like a #1 at this point and I don't see him hurting his stock to the point where he isn't the top QB. I say he only way he doesn't go #1 is if the team picking reallydoesn't need a QB and can't trade out.

I think he will be the top QB, but it depends on if the team needs a QB or maybe if there is a guy comes out and looks like a crazy dominant WR, DE or something.

[SativaDominant]

Originally Posted by njx9

whichever one you think means being picked at 2 or later (is that over, because the numbers higher, or under, because he's getting drafted lower?).

Agreed. Firstly, and most obviously, there's the chance that a team who selected a quarterback in the first round this year gets the first overall pick (so Car, Tenn, Jax, and Minn).

Secondly, there's the fact that he's going to be under intense scrutiny by both the media and by scouts. Both will use the extra time to simply look for flaws. If he doesn't progress as expected (or, even worse, regresses) people will say he's simply the product of Harbaugh/the system/the talent/etc. He's an excellent prospect but not without flaws. His arm is strong enough, but he rarely makes challenging throws. Whether that's the function of a conservative offense or not being totally comfortable with attempting "stick" throws is largely an unknown at this point.

Does the extra time lead to a better scouting job? Recent history would say yes, as you have the case of Matt Leinart - who had accomplished every possible feat at the college level and whose stock could not get any higher - falling to 10th overall. And you have Jake Locker - whose #1 stock was largely based on projection - failing to maintain his momentum after his junior year. Luck is somewhere in between the two. Conversely, you have Sam Bradford, who barely played due to injury and suffered the same kid of nitpicking and scrutiny. Yet he still went first overall and played admirably as a rookie.

Thirdly, there's the chance that another prospect with better physical tools/arm talent has a breakout season. The scouts, the media, and the country all suffer from massive ADD, with the "shiny new toy" quickly replacing the forgotten old one. The question is who will that prospect be (if there is one). Some say Landry Jones. Some say Barkley. I'd need to see a ton of improvement from both of them, though. Jones has better arm talent, but he doesn't have near the command of that Okalahoma offense than Bradford did. They don't require him to read multiple areas of the field and protect him with a ton of easy screen passes. Barkley is a guy whose arm talent was vastly (and I mean vastly) overstated coming out of high school. I just don't see any zip or velocity on his throws, and he really wears down as the season goes on, leading to sloppy, lazy mechanics, poor throws, etc. Quite frankly, I don't think he was physically ready for the responsibility they put on him this past year or as a freshman coming out of high school.

All that being said, I'm going to be watching the development of those three very closely this year.

[FUNBUNCHER]

Firstly, and most obviously, there's the chance that a team who selected a quarterback in the first round this year gets the first overall pick (so Car, Tenn, Jax, and Minn).



I don't think the Titans or Carolina would even if Newton and Locker struggle as rookies, but if the Jags or Vikes end up with the 1/1 pick in 2012, having Ponder or Gabbert on their rosters won't be enough of a deterrent to bypass taking Luck IMO.

Luck just reminds me of a more mobile Peyton Manning, except he plays better in pressure situations.

If he's anything close to Peyton in the minds of NFL GMs, the Panthers, Titans, Jags and Vikes IMO would take him over any QB currently on their roster next season.

[dannyz]

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER

Firstly, and most obviously, there's the chance that a team who selected a quarterback in the first round this year gets the first overall pick (so Car, Tenn, Jax, and Minn).



I don't think the Titans or Carolina would even if Newton and Locker struggle as rookies, but if the Jags or Vikes end up with the 1/1 pick in 2012, having Ponder or Gabbert on their rosters won't be enough of a deterrent to bypass taking Luck IMO.

Luck just reminds me of a more mobile Peyton Manning, except he plays better in pressure situations.

If he's anything close to Peyton in the minds of NFL GMs, the Panthers, Titans, Jags and Vikes IMO would take him over any QB currently on their roster next season.

I think this also, A kid who's Dad was an NFL Player, Really Smart, Studies all the Time. I think if Andrew Luck lives up to his Potential in the NFL he could be the Next Peyton Manning. I think Andrew Lucks Potential is being the Next Peyton Manning. That's what I think.

[dannyz]

I think I speak for all when I say lets get this Back to Discussing Andrew Luck.

Don't bring Gabbert up Again because this is not the Blaine Gabbert Thread, its the Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford Thread.

[Caulibflower]

Luck is the prototypical pro-style prospect. It really hardly even needs to be discussed beyond that. No player is a slam-dunk for NFL success, but we were to grade every part of a prospect's game per NFL requirements, I think Luck would probably grade above 90% in every category, compared to other prospects. What I'd be interested to see is if anyone thinks some part of his game would actually fall below that threshold. If anything gets brought up, it seems to be that "he doesn't have a super-duper strong arm." No, he probably can't throw it as far as JaMarcus Russell. But I bet he can throw it as far as Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

[njx9]

after deleting half the thread...

Originally Posted by dannyz

I think I speak for all when I say lets get this Back to Discussing Andrew Luck.

i think this guy's got it right.

[Shane P. Hallam]

Originally Posted by njx9

after deleting half the thread...



i think this guy's got it right.

I've also suspended the natural, so all should be good!

I want more to people to answer my question above (and yes, under means pick #1, over means pick #2 and over)

[no bare feet]

Is he a godsend of QB's? I dont think so, I still have other Qbs in the last 5 years ahead of him.

[dannyz]

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam

I've also suspended the natural, so all should be good!

I want more to people to answer my question above (and yes, under means pick #1, over means pick #2 and over)

I bet he goes #1. I think he is in the Same Situation as Bradford where people already know what they have and he could get Injured the whole Year and still be the Top Pick. The only way he does not go Number One is if he plays really bad like Jake Locker or Someone comes out of Nowhere and blows College football Up.

[TACKLE]

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam

Let me pose this question:

If you had to put down $100 right now on the Over/Under at 1.5 of what pick Andrew Luck will be when he is drafted, what would you bet on?

Hmmmm. Obviously #1 is the initial inkling but I guess the thought is a team that drafted a QB in the first or early 2nd round this year may have the top spot. I don't see Carolina, Tennessee, Jacksonville or Minnesota picking #1. Cincy is certainly a possibility but if they are picking #1, chances are that Andy Dalton really struggled. I think Carolina may of now set the precedent in this situation. With all that being said, put that $100 on Luck going #1.

[Halsey]

I'd bet on Luck going #1. He just seems to have everything an NFL team wants in a QB.

Here's another question that I'm going to post on the podcast thread:

Assuming Luck has a good season, plays up to expectations, and declares for the 2012 Draft, who's the one player with the best chance to move ahead of him and be the #1 pick in the 2012 Draft.

Obviously anything could happen if Luck plays poorly this season, but I'm interested to know who people think could move ahead of Luck even if he plays well.