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Old 05-28-2011, 10:57 AM    (permalink
ellsy82
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Hate to be a thread killer...but all this arguement is kinda pointless. We don't or can't know if this trade was good or not. If the Dirty Birds win the superbowl next year with Jones at second wide, it'll shut a lot of you up aweful quick. In contrast, if the Falcons miss the playoffs entirely, some of you may be chastised. There's simply no way to know if it was worth it yet.

I'll stake my claim as one of the guys that think they overpaid tho.
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Old 05-28-2011, 11:01 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by SativaDominant View Post
Little only starting for one season at UNC may have something to do with that.

NFL scouting is not a statistical or numbers game. It's about projectable NFL traits, and people are way, way, way too generous with Jones' upside. Understandable though, as he's got good production in the SEC, is big, strong, and ran a fast 40.

However, he's slow in and out of breaks (despite relatively good route running and good hip flexability), and his acceleration is poor. Like I said, that 4.39 absolutely DOES NOT translate on game tape. He'll be a decent complimentary receiver in the NFL who does dirty work across the middle. Nice player? Sure. Worth his draft slot (plus what they gave up for him)? **** no.
Jones was also playing on a broken foot when he worked out at the combine which might just account for his slowness out of his breaks. His foot injury was considered worse than Crabtree's and Crabtree couldn't even workout.
As for his 4.39 speed, did you ever think to ask yourself how fast he might be on a healed foot???

I don't know anyone in the NFL who ranked Jones out of the top 10 even with his foot injury so who are you to say scouts and GM's are too generous in their appraisal of Jones' potential.

Fans love to be critical of players but NFL scouts and GM's for the most part know exactly what they are doing and what the potential of a prospect is. Dimitroff is no Matt Millen and when he puts his stamp of approval on a prospect, it carries a lot of weight.

I also like how all the critics fail to breakdown exactly what Atlanta gave up for Jones. They talk about the #27 pick and a similar pick next year like they were sure stars and not the very average players they are likely to be.
Even Cleveland admitted as much as they surrendered their #3 pick plus the #27 pick to move up in an attempt to get something worthwhile.

Since you like to talk about statistical analysis, the odds clearly show that higher picks have a far greater chance to be stars than later picks. Nobody can measure Jones' heart or his desire to be great, but his potential is off the charts.
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Old 05-28-2011, 11:23 AM    (permalink
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So... something like the Texans the past 3 seasons? (making the enormous presumption that he'll be on par with the best WR in the league or be the league's best in the near future.)

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I said he has that kind of potential and Atlanta was 13-3 last year vs a team that has never reached the playoffs. When a 13-3 team can add a potential superstar, for what amounts to 2 very late 1st rounders, it is a steal IMO.
Heck, Cleveland didn't even think they would get much value staying at #27 and it cost them another 3rd to get something worthwhile dropping the value they got for trading the pick in the 1st place.
He's overrated in this department-potentially great because of his size & style but he's not dominant.

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This is the kind of criticism that kills me, Jones was recognized as a very skilled blocker in Alabama's offense and who are you to say he is overrated???
If anything, people don't take this aspect of his game seriously enough. He has Hines Ward potential as a NFL blocker and that is worth quite a bit.
Pretty twisted rationale here. The notion that top ten picks are the cream of the crop and late 1st round or 2nd round talent are not even comparable is just not accurate, when you're judging 3 years down the road.

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The facts clearly support that high picks are far more likely to be stars than lower picks, that's why Cleveland turned around and used a 3rd to move up to get something worthwhile in round 1.

Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.
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Who designated the Dolphins, Bengals and 49ers as playoff calibre teams??? That's a stretch. So you are left with one example, Bolden by Baltimore and who is to say Baltimore won't succeed with Flacco's development and that the Ravens success last year didn't have a lot to do with Bolden being on the team.
As for Dallas, Tennessee and NY, their failure had little to do with the play of their WR's.
If I were you, I'd be worrying that the constant trading of top 10 picks by Cleveland has NEVER been a winning formula in rebuilding a team in the NFL, and has never led to success in my 55 years of following pro football and in my opinion will doom Cleveland to another decade of mediocrity. That's the truly sad part of this trade, that it will turnout to be a disaster for my beloved Browns.
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Old 05-28-2011, 06:26 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Brown Leader View Post
Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.
Not to hi-jack the OP's thread, but these scenarios you've mentioned have nothing to do with one another, nor the Falcons trade. No one player other than a QB can change a team's fortune on Sundays, as a whole. Crabtree, Dez, Nicks, nor Britt were reaches. They were needs(except maybe for Dallas), which those teams drafted for accordingly. Crabtree fell to the Niners and was regarded as huge value at the time. Nicks may have been a mild reach to some but I thought he had first round talent. Britt was decent value. I don't see the connection, as none of them were thought to be the missing piece to anything to special. Just upgrades at positions of need. Now those free agent signings might help your argument to some degree.

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Old 05-29-2011, 04:51 AM    (permalink
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The question I have is what makes Jones such a better option than a Vincent Jackson if their essentially committing to the win now mentality? Vincent Jackson costs less, is a proven star, top 10 receiver in the league when he plays and is ready to go right now. why would they spend 2 1sts, a 2nd and 2 4th when they could have given 2 2nds at the most for VJ the day that the lockout was postponed?
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Old 05-30-2011, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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Because you don't know if you can get VJax, or any FA WR for that matter. You know you can get Julio Jones.

Two points:

#1 - We are overrating draft picks because this is a draft site. Most draft classes yield 2-3 players that make a positive impact on their franchise for more than 2 years. Sure, there are exceptions, but it comes down to how the player performs. Even the best organizations and GMs miss on many, many draft picks. That is not an indictment of the scouting departments - it's what makes the draft so special and so interesting.

#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL. If they continue to play on a similar level, NO defense will be able to match up on paper. The only chance you have, esepcially in that dome, is to score with them. This is an important point because it explains the Falcons reasoning for giving up multiple draft picks.
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Old 05-30-2011, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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It should be interesting to follow the careers of Julio Jones compared to Greg Little. I know it's not really a big deal to Atlanta fans what the draft picks they traded away do as long as Jones is a star for them, but they gave up Phil Taylor, Greg Little, Owen Marecic, a 2012 1st and a 2012 4th so far for Jones. 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and 2 fourths for Jones is a big payday given up for a WR.
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Old 05-30-2011, 01:45 PM    (permalink
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#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL. If they continue to play on a similar level, NO defense will be able to match up on paper. The only chance you have, esepcially in that dome, is to score with them. This is an important point because it explains the Falcons reasoning for giving up multiple draft picks.
Taking nothing away from the Packers and their SB run, Im not buying that their offense is this "unstoppable force" that can't be contained. Similar sentiments were used to decribe the Pats offense in '08 and the Saints offense after they won their SB. Defenses will adjust and they will have to adapt to those adjustments.....happens to every SB champion. Its not like they cruised through the playoffs to a SB win. Philly and Chicago played them well. And for as great as Rodgers and that offense was in the SB, if Mendenhall doesn't fumble away a crticial scoring oppournity, we may not be having this conversation.

The Falcons did what they thought they needed to do to take the next step offensively to compete with the better teams around the league. But they're defense still lags behind, personel wise, to put them in the conversation as a legitmate SB contender, IMO.
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Old 05-30-2011, 02:20 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Brown Leader View Post
Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.
IMO those aren't good comparisons:

Marshall has character issues
TO is on the downside of his career
Crabtree has a questionable work ethic.

The only wr you mentioned might be boldin but with all due respect, Ryan is a better qb than Flacco.

The bottom line for me tho' is that before Dimitroff the Falcons NEVER had two consecutive winning seasons and in the three years since hiring Dimitroff they've had three winning seasons. And in two of those three years they've had at least 11 wins. I, personally wouldn't have done the trade but Dimitroff has shown he knows what he's doing and I'm going to trust him.
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Old 05-30-2011, 02:56 PM    (permalink
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All I'm saying is, Julio Jones better become a star. You don't give up an additional 1st rounder, 2nd, and 2 4th round picks for a guy who might just compliment Roddy White.

He will always be linked to Greg Little, who I thought could have been just as good as a pick.

Now if they were able to swing that deal for AJ Green, then it would have been worth it. Jones drops to many balls and doesn't play as fast has he timed at the combine.

Sorry, but I just don't think Jones was worth that much of a price tag.
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Old 05-30-2011, 03:40 PM    (permalink
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All I'm saying is, Julio Jones better become a star. You don't give up an additional 1st rounder, 2nd, and 2 4th round picks for a guy who might just compliment Roddy White.

He will always be linked to Greg Little, who I thought could have been just as good as a pick.

Now if they were able to swing that deal for AJ Green, then it would have been worth it. Jones drops to many balls and doesn't play as fast has he timed at the combine.

Sorry, but I just don't think Jones was worth that much of a price tag.
You're entitled to you're opinion but IMO he's better than green and I'm a UGA fan.
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Old 05-30-2011, 06:01 PM    (permalink
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We won't know for a while yet whether or not this deal was worth it, but you gotta love a GM who is willing to move up for a player they really believe in.
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Old 05-30-2011, 09:02 PM    (permalink
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We won't know for a while yet whether or not this deal was worth it, but you gotta love a GM who is willing to move up for a player they really believe in.
True. I mean, Julio Jones is a great player. The thing I like is, if you feel that you need that 1 player to open up your offense, then you go get him.

What I didn't like is, Julio isn't the player nor prospect Calvin Johnson was, and they gave up the Max for what you normally give up for that elite type of WR. Julio is going to have that pressure to live up to the price Atlanta paid for, so we'll see if it works out.
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Old 05-30-2011, 11:34 PM    (permalink
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#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL. If they continue to play on a similar level, NO defense will be able to match up on paper. The only chance you have, esepcially in that dome, is to score with them. This is an important point because it explains the Falcons reasoning for giving up multiple draft picks.
The Bears held them to only 14 points.
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Old 05-30-2011, 11:57 PM    (permalink
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I think the Falcons only overpaid a little for JJ, not totally.

The problem for Atlanta in reaching the SB IMO isn't a more explosive vertical offense but a better D in the 4th quarter.

But giving Matt Ryan some toys to play with should always be a priority when developing a franchise QB.

I think Julio will be a better pro than collegian and his upside makes him hard to pass if your team needed a WR in the 2011 draft.

I like the aggressive move by the Falcons, even if they overpaid.
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Old 05-31-2011, 02:56 AM    (permalink
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This play might have gone much differently had it been Julio Jones instead of Michael Jenkins being targeted: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-h...000d5d81db449f

The other int came partially because Williams knew Ryan wanted to get it to White, because he couldn't trust Jenkins.
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Old 05-31-2011, 05:56 AM    (permalink
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In general im not in favour of drafting WRs that high but in this case I actually think Atlanta made a smart move, sure they gave up an awful lot but I believe it may be worth it.

Teams who take WRs early in the draft often struggle to make much of a difference because its like putting a $5k plasma TV in a mobile home. However the Falcons already have a very good team and they just added a dynamic receiving threat to compliment Roddy White, not necessarily play second fiddle as most are suggesting.

The only major issue I have with this trade is they still need defensive help, particularly up front. Although adding a potentially elite playmaker instead of someone like Jabaal Sheard and Randall Cobb etc may turn out to be the better move
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Old 05-31-2011, 11:29 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AntoinCD View Post
In general im not in favour of drafting WRs that high but in this case I actually think Atlanta made a smart move, sure they gave up an awful lot but I believe it may be worth it.

Teams who take WRs early in the draft often struggle to make much of a difference because its like putting a $5k plasma TV in a mobile home. However the Falcons already have a very good team and they just added a dynamic receiving threat to compliment Roddy White, not necessarily play second fiddle as most are suggesting.

The only major issue I have with this trade is they still need defensive help, particularly up front. Although adding a potentially elite playmaker instead of someone like Jabaal Sheard and Randall Cobb etc may turn out to be the better move
These are my thoughts.

As to those who are saying Jones isn't the type of receiver you move up for like that, generally I would agree. But the thing with Jones is that he has the potential to be an All-Pro and the best receiver in the class. The question is and has always been if he will fulfill his potential. And had a mediocre team selected him I may be worried about his future prospects. But he came into an absolutely ideal situation and gets to learn from one of the league's top receivers in his prime. And if Jones lives up to his potential, he is definitely the type of receiver worthy of a top five to ten pick.

IMO it's pretty parallel to the Isac Bruce/ Torry Holt situation. Bruce was the first pick in the second round and only going on 27 when Holt was selected in the first round in 1996. Holt was a similar receiver to Bruce and selected with the sixth pick in the draft. Their dominance overlapped for a few years and once Bruce began to decline Holt continued to be in his prime.
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Old 05-31-2011, 07:08 PM    (permalink
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I didn`t like this trade because of the Falcons are not one player away from being a Superbowl contender. Does this move make their passing attack better, yes, but the team`s o-line isn`t solid. Next year`s class is pretty deep for inside and some outside linemen, it could set them back. Also with Gozo aging, a need for DE, maybe DT, OLB, and depth in the secondary arise.
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Old 06-01-2011, 12:07 PM    (permalink
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Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:

#6 pick = 1600

#27th pick = 680
#59th pick = 310
#124th pick = 48

You had to factor in that a 2012 pick drops a round when traded for a 2011 pick.
1st round pick next year = 310
4th round pick next year = 29.4

Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4

Cleveland then had to give up their own 3rd #77, to get Taylor = 205 points, so in effect, Cleveland got only 1272.4 points for the trade if you factor in the Taylor trade.

These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.
IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value.
Worse yet, because of the hesitation by Baltimore, Cleveland ended up with the 26th pick instead of the 27th pick costing them another 20 points.
You can argue all you want about how good a prospect Jones is but he was going in the top 10 even with an injury considered worse than Crabtree's, and has a real shot to be a huge star at the next level. IMO, he will easily replace White as their #1 option.
I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.
I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.

This would have been a much fairer trade:

#6 =1600

In return:
# 27
# 59
# 91
# 124

Next year
1st
3rd
4th

For a total of 1662 points and even then Cleveland still lost 225 points in trades.
I see absolutely no way this trade made any sense on Cleveland's part.
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Old 06-01-2011, 12:19 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:

#6 pick = 1600

#27th pick = 680
#59th pick = 310
#124th pick = 48

You had to factor in that a 2012 pick drops a round when traded for a 2011 pick.
1st round pick next year = 310
4th round pick next year = 29.4

Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4

Cleveland then had to give up their own 3rd #77, to get Taylor = 205 points, so in effect, Cleveland got only 1272.4 points for the trade if you factor in the Taylor trade.

These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.
IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value.
Worse yet, because of the hesitation by Baltimore, Cleveland ended up with the 26th pick instead of the 27th pick costing them another 20 points.
You can argue all you want about how good a prospect Jones is but he was going in the top 10 even with an injury considered worse than Crabtree's, and has a real shot to be a huge star at the next level. IMO, he will easily replace White as their #1 option.
I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.
I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.
It's a terrible trade because the arbitrary trade value chart that teams barely use anymore says so!!!111oneoneone

It's pretty much a carbon copy of the trade between Baltimore and Jacksonville in 2008, when Jax jumped up 18 spots to nab Harvey. In fact, the Ravens got much less than what the Browns got this year. Completing the cycle, the Ravens moved back up from their low 20 spot to take Flacco. The Ravens took significantly less than the "trade value chart" said they should, and moved back up. The Jaguars got a hell of a deal to move into the top 10 for Harvey. Looking back, you tell me who got the better deal.

Cleveland now has a significant amount of ammo to get their franchise QB next offseason in McCoy doesn't work out (and I don't assume he will - gotta have a strong arm in that division). I don't see how that can be deemed a massive failure, considering this past year's abysmal QB class and lack of free agent options. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather have the best 1-tech/NT talent in the draft, a wide receiver who is virtually the same ******* prospect as Julio and an extra first rounder next year, or would I rather give a pretty good (but far from can't miss) WR prospect a top 10 contract. Seems like a pretty damned easy decision to me.

Julio Jones could very well be a star in this league and make the trade worthwhile to Atlanta. On the other hand, he could be the next highly touted "can't miss" wide receiver who ends up nothing more than a volume possession receiver who works the underneath stuff because he's too slow in and out of his breaks to get separation at the NFL level and can't track the ball in the air. If those aren't huge flaws for a WR, I don't know what is.

To each his own, though. NFL Network said he'd be good, so it must be true.

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Old 06-01-2011, 01:02 PM    (permalink
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It's a terrible trade because the arbitrary trade value chart that teams barely use anymore says so!!!111oneoneone

Quote:
First, I follow the draft very closely and if you breakdown draft day trades over the past decade, you will find draft 101 shows clearly that the Draft Value Chart is still much in use by almost every team.
Sure, there are weak draft years where value doesn't hold true but it is amazing how close most of the draft day trades still follow the chart.
It's pretty much a carbon copy of the trade between Baltimore and Jacksonville in 2008, when Jax jumped up 18 spots to nab Harvey. In fact, the Ravens got much less than what the Browns got this year. Completing the cycle, the Ravens moved back up from their low 20 spot to take Flacco. The Ravens took significantly less than the "trade value chart" said they should, and moved back up. The Jaguars got a hell of a deal to move into the top 10 for Harvey. Looking back, you tell me who got the better deal.

Quote:
Not all GM's are equal, Jacksonville is not a good drafting team and has paid the price for it. Dimitroff on the other hand, has built Atlanta into one of the top teams in the NFL and doesn't make too many mistakes on draft day.
Cleveland now has a significant amount of ammo to get their franchise QB next offseason in McCoy doesn't work out (and I don't assume he will - gotta have a strong arm in that division). I don't see how that can be deemed a massive failure, considering this past year's abysmal QB class and lack of free agent options. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather have the best 1-tech/NT talent in the draft, a wide receiver who is virtually the same ******* prospect as Julio and an extra first rounder next year, or would I rather give a pretty good (but far from can't miss) WR prospect a top 10 contract. Seems like a pretty damned easy decision to me.

Quote:
He isn't the same quality prospect as Jones, you should know better than to make ridiculous claims and drafting a NT in the 20's doesn't guarantee you a whole lot. There is a far greater chance that both of them will be flops than the chances of Jones flopping. Both have huge character concerns and aren't the type of character people you usually build a franchise around.
How much help is next year's #27 or higher pick going to help Cleveland move up significantly, of course after a long history of rotten drafting and trades, they could get the #1 pick overall without any help.
This would have been a fair trade:

#6 =1600

In return:
#27
#59
#124

Julio Jones could very well be a star in this league and make the trade worthwhile to Atlanta. On the other hand, he could be the next highly touted "can't miss" wide receiver who ends up nothing more than a volume possession receiver who works the underneath stuff because he's too slow in and out of his breaks to get separation at the NFL level and can't track the ball in the air. If those aren't huge flaws for a WR, I don't know what is.

Quote:
The fact remains that Julio was a top 10 talent, drafted by a GM with a solid history as a drafter, who worked out with a foot injury considered worse than Crabtree's, otherwise he might have gone before Green in the top 5.
Your just praying he doesn't workout just like Cleveland fans are still praying that Sanchez, in his 3rd year doesn't become the franchise QB we are probably still looking to find 3 or 4 years later.
To each his own, though. NFL Network said he'd be good, so it must be true.
Your right, to each his own, of course, 20 GM's passed on Taylor and I lost count on how many GM's passed on our WR but what do they know???
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Old 06-01-2011, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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Your right, to each his own, of course, 20 GM's passed on Taylor and I lost count on how many GM's passed on our WR but what do they know???
You know the draft is a balancing act of need, talent, and value. You're grossly oversimplifying the situation.
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Old 06-01-2011, 01:33 PM    (permalink
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Still talking about this? Yes Falcons gave too much, but if Julio sees success, the organization and we as fans can be satisfied by the price.
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Old 06-01-2011, 11:50 PM    (permalink
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I am so happy Michael Jenkins is not one of the Falcons starting WRs anymore. Just upgrading over Jenkins is reason to be optimistic. Matt Ryan has two potentially premier targets to work with.
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