The ATL Trade?

[Roddoliver]

Horrible trade by the Falcons. Such move deserves an F. Just awful. If it was for a QB that could eventually become the franchise QB... But for a WR? Even worse, a #2 WR to complement Roddy White? Fail.

[initial_flo]

The Falcons better be thaaaaat close to being a super bowl contender otherwise this could really hurt them in the intermediate term. They put most of their draft eggs into one basket, at a position that wasn't a glaring need to begin with. I think Jones will be good, but he better turn out to be something really special to make this trade worth it.

IMO the trade wasn't worth it, the Falcons got straight embarrassed by Aaron Rodgers and the boys on defense. The should have addressed that and gone for a Sidney Rice or who ever in FA. There are only some many balls to go around in a balanced offense like the Falcons have anyway.

A boatload of draft picks for a good to great #2 guy in a balanced offense? No thanks.

[Brown Leader]

Originally Posted by Iamcanadian

First, Jones has the potential to be another Andre Johnson, Rice is just another one year wonder without the talent to spread a defense that a Johnson provides. No one is mistaking Rice for a superstar. If Minny thought for a moment that Rice had real star potential, they would have resigned him long ago or franchised him.

Second, Atlanta isn't being run by a weak GM incapable of judging talent. He, like most solid GM's believe Jones will be a huge star in the NFL especially with a franchise QB throwing him the ball.
I think it is a safe bet to say Atlanta with Jones, will be one of the top 5 offenses in the NFL for the foreseeable future, and in today's NFL, offense is the name of the game with the current rules.

So... something like the Texans the past 3 seasons? (making the enormous presumption that he'll be on par with the best WR in the league or be the league's best in the near future.)

You can add in another factor in the trade, Jones is an excellent blocker for a WR which will only enhance Atlanta's running game making their offense even more efficient.

He's overrated in this department-potentially great because of his size & style but he's not dominant.

What did it really cost them in terms of draft picks? At #27, you are talking about 2nd round talent and next year, with Jones, they could be giving up an even later pick. A next year's 1st round pick only carries the value as a 2nd rounder for this year's draft, and considering how late a pick it will be, Atlanta was in effect giving up 3rd round value to help acquire Jones. Heck, even Cleveland had to give up a 3rd rounder plus the #27 pick to get a decent 1st rounder in Taylor, showing how little the #27 pick was really worth.

Pretty twisted rationale here. The notion that top ten picks are the cream of the crop and late 1st round or 2nd round talent are not even comparable is just not accurate, when you're judging 3 years down the road.

This trade was brilliant in my opinion, whenever a team drafting very late in round 1 can acquire a top 10 talent for just picks, an almost impossible feat, you grab it every day of the year if you can and never look back. Say whatever you want about Jones but in the end he was a top 10 talent with the potential of an Andre Johnson, and together with Matt Ryan will be a terror in the NFL for the next decade and will likely include at least a couple of SB rings as a reward. If you think the price was to high for this kind of potential, I really question your thinking.

Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.

[ellsy82]

Hate to be a thread killer...but all this arguement is kinda pointless. We don't or can't know if this trade was good or not. If the Dirty Birds win the superbowl next year with Jones at second wide, it'll shut a lot of you up aweful quick. In contrast, if the Falcons miss the playoffs entirely, some of you may be chastised. There's simply no way to know if it was worth it yet.

I'll stake my claim as one of the guys that think they overpaid tho.

[Iamcanadian]

Originally Posted by SativaDominant

Little only starting for one season at UNC may have something to do with that.

NFL scouting is not a statistical or numbers game. It's about projectable NFL traits, and people are way, way, way too generous with Jones' upside. Understandable though, as he's got good production in the SEC, is big, strong, and ran a fast 40.

However, he's slow in and out of breaks (despite relatively good route running and good hip flexability), and his acceleration is poor. Like I said, that 4.39 absolutely DOES NOT translate on game tape. He'll be a decent complimentary receiver in the NFL who does dirty work across the middle. Nice player? Sure. Worth his draft slot (plus what they gave up for him)? **** no.

Jones was also playing on a broken foot when he worked out at the combine which might just account for his slowness out of his breaks. His foot injury was considered worse than Crabtree's and Crabtree couldn't even workout.
As for his 4.39 speed, did you ever think to ask yourself how fast he might be on a healed foot???

I don't know anyone in the NFL who ranked Jones out of the top 10 even with his foot injury so who are you to say scouts and GM's are too generous in their appraisal of Jones' potential.

Fans love to be critical of players but NFL scouts and GM's for the most part know exactly what they are doing and what the potential of a prospect is. Dimitroff is no Matt Millen and when he puts his stamp of approval on a prospect, it carries a lot of weight.

I also like how all the critics fail to breakdown exactly what Atlanta gave up for Jones. They talk about the #27 pick and a similar pick next year like they were sure stars and not the very average players they are likely to be.
Even Cleveland admitted as much as they surrendered their #3 pick plus the #27 pick to move up in an attempt to get something worthwhile.

Since you like to talk about statistical analysis, the odds clearly show that higher picks have a far greater chance to be stars than later picks. Nobody can measure Jones' heart or his desire to be great, but his potential is off the charts.

[Iamcanadian]

Originally Posted by Brown Leader

So... something like the Texans the past 3 seasons? (making the enormous presumption that he'll be on par with the best WR in the league or be the league's best in the near future.)

He's overrated in this department-potentially great because of his size & style but he's not dominant.

Pretty twisted rationale here. The notion that top ten picks are the cream of the crop and late 1st round or 2nd round talent are not even comparable is just not accurate, when you're judging 3 years down the road.

Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.

Who designated the Dolphins, Bengals and 49ers as playoff calibre teams??? That's a stretch. So you are left with one example, Bolden by Baltimore and who is to say Baltimore won't succeed with Flacco's development and that the Ravens success last year didn't have a lot to do with Bolden being on the team.
As for Dallas, Tennessee and NY, their failure had little to do with the play of their WR's.

If I were you, I'd be worrying that the constant trading of top 10 picks by Cleveland has NEVER been a winning formula in rebuilding a team in the NFL, and has never led to success in my 55 years of following pro football and in my opinion will doom Cleveland to another decade of mediocrity. That's the truly sad part of this trade, that it will turnout to be a disaster for my beloved Browns.

[VAfy-ya]

Originally Posted by Brown Leader

Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.

Not to hi-jack the OP's thread, but these scenarios you've mentioned have nothing to do with one another, nor the Falcons trade. No one player other than a QB can change a team's fortune on Sundays, as a whole. Crabtree, Dez, Nicks, nor Britt were reaches. They were needs(except maybe for Dallas), which those teams drafted for accordingly. Crabtree fell to the Niners and was regarded as huge value at the time. Nicks may have been a mild reach to some but I thought he had first round talent. Britt was decent value. I don't see the connection, as none of them were thought to be the missing piece to anything to special. Just upgrades at positions of need. Now those free agent signings might help your argument to some degree.

[Duffman57]

The question I have is what makes Jones such a better option than a Vincent Jackson if their essentially committing to the win now mentality? Vincent Jackson costs less, is a proven star, top 10 receiver in the league when he plays and is ready to go right now. why would they spend 2 1sts, a 2nd and 2 4th when they could have given 2 2nds at the most for VJ the day that the lockout was postponed?

[gpngc]

Because you don't know if you can get VJax, or any FA WR for that matter. You know you can get Julio Jones.

Two points:

#1 - We are overrating draft picks because this is a draft site. Most draft classes yield 2-3 players that make a positive impact on their franchise for more than 2 years. Sure, there are exceptions, but it comes down to how the player performs. Even the best organizations and GMs miss on many, many draft picks. That is not an indictment of the scouting departments - it's what makes the draft so special and so interesting.

#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL. If they continue to play on a similar level, NO defense will be able to match up on paper. The only chance you have, esepcially in that dome, is to score with them. This is an important point because it explains the Falcons reasoning for giving up multiple draft picks.

[keylime_5]

It should be interesting to follow the careers of Julio Jones compared to Greg Little. I know it's not really a big deal to Atlanta fans what the draft picks they traded away do as long as Jones is a star for them, but they gave up Phil Taylor, Greg Little, Owen Marecic, a 2012 1st and a 2012 4th so far for Jones. 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and 2 fourths for Jones is a big payday given up for a WR.

[VAfy-ya]

Originally Posted by gpngc

#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL. If they continue to play on a similar level, NO defense will be able to match up on paper. The only chance you have, esepcially in that dome, is to score with them. This is an important point because it explains the Falcons reasoning for giving up multiple draft picks.

Taking nothing away from the Packers and their SB run, Im not buying that their offense is this "unstoppable force" that can't be contained. Similar sentiments were used to decribe the Pats offense in '08 and the Saints offense after they won their SB. Defenses will adjust and they will have to adapt to those adjustments.....happens to every SB champion. Its not like they cruised through the playoffs to a SB win. Philly and Chicago played them well. And for as great as Rodgers and that offense was in the SB, if Mendenhall doesn't fumble away a crticial scoring oppournity, we may not be having this conversation.

The Falcons did what they thought they needed to do to take the next step offensively to compete with the better teams around the league. But they're defense still lags behind, personel wise, to put them in the conversation as a legitmate SB contender, IMO.

[FTRWRTR]

Originally Posted by Brown Leader

Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.

IMO those aren't good comparisons:

Marshall has character issues
TO is on the downside of his career
Crabtree has a questionable work ethic.

The only wr you mentioned might be boldin but with all due respect, Ryan is a better qb than Flacco.

The bottom line for me tho' is that before Dimitroff the Falcons NEVER had two consecutive winning seasons and in the three years since hiring Dimitroff they've had three winning seasons. And in two of those three years they've had at least 11 wins. I, personally wouldn't have done the trade but Dimitroff has shown he knows what he's doing and I'm going to trust him.

[bucfan12]

All I'm saying is, Julio Jones better become a star. You don't give up an additional 1st rounder, 2nd, and 2 4th round picks for a guy who might just compliment Roddy White.

He will always be linked to Greg Little, who I thought could have been just as good as a pick.

Now if they were able to swing that deal for AJ Green, then it would have been worth it. Jones drops to many balls and doesn't play as fast has he timed at the combine.

Sorry, but I just don't think Jones was worth that much of a price tag.

[FTRWRTR]

Originally Posted by bucfan12

All I'm saying is, Julio Jones better become a star. You don't give up an additional 1st rounder, 2nd, and 2 4th round picks for a guy who might just compliment Roddy White.

He will always be linked to Greg Little, who I thought could have been just as good as a pick.

Now if they were able to swing that deal for AJ Green, then it would have been worth it. Jones drops to many balls and doesn't play as fast has he timed at the combine.

Sorry, but I just don't think Jones was worth that much of a price tag.

You're entitled to you're opinion but IMO he's better than green and I'm a UGA fan.

[vidae]

We won't know for a while yet whether or not this deal was worth it, but you gotta love a GM who is willing to move up for a player they really believe in.

[bucfan12]

Originally Posted by vidae

We won't know for a while yet whether or not this deal was worth it, but you gotta love a GM who is willing to move up for a player they really believe in.

True. I mean, Julio Jones is a great player. The thing I like is, if you feel that you need that 1 player to open up your offense, then you go get him.

What I didn't like is, Julio isn't the player nor prospect Calvin Johnson was, and they gave up the Max for what you normally give up for that elite type of WR. Julio is going to have that pressure to live up to the price Atlanta paid for, so we'll see if it works out.

[Bucs_Rule]

Originally Posted by gpngc

#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL. If they continue to play on a similar level, NO defense will be able to match up on paper. The only chance you have, esepcially in that dome, is to score with them. This is an important point because it explains the Falcons reasoning for giving up multiple draft picks.

The Bears held them to only 14 points.

[FUNBUNCHER]

I think the Falcons only overpaid a little for JJ, not totally.

The problem for Atlanta in reaching the SB IMO isn't a more explosive vertical offense but a better D in the 4th quarter.

But giving Matt Ryan some toys to play with should always be a priority when developing a franchise QB.

I think Julio will be a better pro than collegian and his upside makes him hard to pass if your team needed a WR in the 2011 draft.

I like the aggressive move by the Falcons, even if they overpaid.

[Halsey]

This play might have gone much differently had it been Julio Jones instead of Michael Jenkins being targeted: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-h...000d5d81db449f

The other int came partially because Williams knew Ryan wanted to get it to White, because he couldn't trust Jenkins.

[AntoinCD]

In general im not in favour of drafting WRs that high but in this case I actually think Atlanta made a smart move, sure they gave up an awful lot but I believe it may be worth it.

Teams who take WRs early in the draft often struggle to make much of a difference because its like putting a $5k plasma TV in a mobile home. However the Falcons already have a very good team and they just added a dynamic receiving threat to compliment Roddy White, not necessarily play second fiddle as most are suggesting.

The only major issue I have with this trade is they still need defensive help, particularly up front. Although adding a potentially elite playmaker instead of someone like Jabaal Sheard and Randall Cobb etc may turn out to be the better move

[BamaFalcon59]

Originally Posted by AntoinCD

In general im not in favour of drafting WRs that high but in this case I actually think Atlanta made a smart move, sure they gave up an awful lot but I believe it may be worth it.

Teams who take WRs early in the draft often struggle to make much of a difference because its like putting a $5k plasma TV in a mobile home. However the Falcons already have a very good team and they just added a dynamic receiving threat to compliment Roddy White, not necessarily play second fiddle as most are suggesting.

The only major issue I have with this trade is they still need defensive help, particularly up front. Although adding a potentially elite playmaker instead of someone like Jabaal Sheard and Randall Cobb etc may turn out to be the better move

These are my thoughts.

As to those who are saying Jones isn't the type of receiver you move up for like that, generally I would agree. But the thing with Jones is that he has the potential to be an All-Pro and the best receiver in the class. The question is and has always been if he will fulfill his potential. And had a mediocre team selected him I may be worried about his future prospects. But he came into an absolutely ideal situation and gets to learn from one of the league's top receivers in his prime. And if Jones lives up to his potential, he is definitely the type of receiver worthy of a top five to ten pick.

IMO it's pretty parallel to the Isac Bruce/ Torry Holt situation. Bruce was the first pick in the second round and only going on 27 when Holt was selected in the first round in 1996. Holt was a similar receiver to Bruce and selected with the sixth pick in the draft. Their dominance overlapped for a few years and once Bruce began to decline Holt continued to be in his prime.

[PACKmanN]

I didn`t like this trade because of the Falcons are not one player away from being a Superbowl contender. Does this move make their passing attack better, yes, but the team`s o-line isn`t solid. Next year`s class is pretty deep for inside and some outside linemen, it could set them back. Also with Gozo aging, a need for DE, maybe DT, OLB, and depth in the secondary arise.

[Iamcanadian]

Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:

#6 pick = 1600

#27th pick = 680
#59th pick = 310
#124th pick = 48

You had to factor in that a 2012 pick drops a round when traded for a 2011 pick.
1st round pick next year = 310
4th round pick next year = 29.4

Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4

Cleveland then had to give up their own 3rd #77, to get Taylor = 205 points, so in effect, Cleveland got only 1272.4 points for the trade if you factor in the Taylor trade.

These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.
IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value.
Worse yet, because of the hesitation by Baltimore, Cleveland ended up with the 26th pick instead of the 27th pick costing them another 20 points.
You can argue all you want about how good a prospect Jones is but he was going in the top 10 even with an injury considered worse than Crabtree's, and has a real shot to be a huge star at the next level. IMO, he will easily replace White as their #1 option.
I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.
I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.

This would have been a much fairer trade:

#6 =1600

In return:
# 27
# 59
# 91
# 124

Next year
1st
3rd
4th

For a total of 1662 points and even then Cleveland still lost 225 points in trades.
I see absolutely no way this trade made any sense on Cleveland's part.

[SativaDominant]

Originally Posted by Iamcanadian

Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:

#6 pick = 1600

#27th pick = 680
#59th pick = 310
#124th pick = 48

You had to factor in that a 2012 pick drops a round when traded for a 2011 pick.
1st round pick next year = 310
4th round pick next year = 29.4

Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4

Cleveland then had to give up their own 3rd #77, to get Taylor = 205 points, so in effect, Cleveland got only 1272.4 points for the trade if you factor in the Taylor trade.

These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.
IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value.
Worse yet, because of the hesitation by Baltimore, Cleveland ended up with the 26th pick instead of the 27th pick costing them another 20 points.
You can argue all you want about how good a prospect Jones is but he was going in the top 10 even with an injury considered worse than Crabtree's, and has a real shot to be a huge star at the next level. IMO, he will easily replace White as their #1 option.
I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.
I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.

It's a terrible trade because the arbitrary trade value chart that teams barely use anymore says so!!!111oneoneone

It's pretty much a carbon copy of the trade between Baltimore and Jacksonville in 2008, when Jax jumped up 18 spots to nab Harvey. In fact, the Ravens got much less than what the Browns got this year. Completing the cycle, the Ravens moved back up from their low 20 spot to take Flacco. The Ravens took significantly less than the "trade value chart" said they should, and moved back up. The Jaguars got a hell of a deal to move into the top 10 for Harvey. Looking back, you tell me who got the better deal.

Cleveland now has a significant amount of ammo to get their franchise QB next offseason in McCoy doesn't work out (and I don't assume he will - gotta have a strong arm in that division). I don't see how that can be deemed a massive failure, considering this past year's abysmal QB class and lack of free agent options. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather have the best 1-tech/NT talent in the draft, a wide receiver who is virtually the same ******* prospect as Julio and an extra first rounder next year, or would I rather give a pretty good (but far from can't miss) WR prospect a top 10 contract. Seems like a pretty damned easy decision to me.

Julio Jones could very well be a star in this league and make the trade worthwhile to Atlanta. On the other hand, he could be the next highly touted "can't miss" wide receiver who ends up nothing more than a volume possession receiver who works the underneath stuff because he's too slow in and out of his breaks to get separation at the NFL level and can't track the ball in the air. If those aren't huge flaws for a WR, I don't know what is.

To each his own, though. NFL Network said he'd be good, so it must be true.

[Iamcanadian]

Originally Posted by SativaDominant

It's a terrible trade because the arbitrary trade value chart that teams barely use anymore says so!!!111oneoneone

It's pretty much a carbon copy of the trade between Baltimore and Jacksonville in 2008, when Jax jumped up 18 spots to nab Harvey. In fact, the Ravens got much less than what the Browns got this year. Completing the cycle, the Ravens moved back up from their low 20 spot to take Flacco. The Ravens took significantly less than the "trade value chart" said they should, and moved back up. The Jaguars got a hell of a deal to move into the top 10 for Harvey. Looking back, you tell me who got the better deal.

Cleveland now has a significant amount of ammo to get their franchise QB next offseason in McCoy doesn't work out (and I don't assume he will - gotta have a strong arm in that division). I don't see how that can be deemed a massive failure, considering this past year's abysmal QB class and lack of free agent options. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather have the best 1-tech/NT talent in the draft, a wide receiver who is virtually the same ******* prospect as Julio and an extra first rounder next year, or would I rather give a pretty good (but far from can't miss) WR prospect a top 10 contract. Seems like a pretty damned easy decision to me.

This would have been a fair trade:

#6 =1600

In return:
#27
#59
#124

Julio Jones could very well be a star in this league and make the trade worthwhile to Atlanta. On the other hand, he could be the next highly touted "can't miss" wide receiver who ends up nothing more than a volume possession receiver who works the underneath stuff because he's too slow in and out of his breaks to get separation at the NFL level and can't track the ball in the air. If those aren't huge flaws for a WR, I don't know what is.

To each his own, though. NFL Network said he'd be good, so it must be true.

Your right, to each his own, of course, 20 GM's passed on Taylor and I lost count on how many GM's passed on our WR but what do they know???