12/11/11 - Mock Draft 3.0

[Miaoww]

Originally Posted by RaiderNation

Very solid all around like usual Scott, good job.

Coples, Burfict and Jenkins are all to high IMO, they all seem to be rated in the 10-25 area on my big board.

Reiff is also a tad high, I have him ranked 4th behind Kalil, Martin and Adams at OT and he seems to be a 20-32 pick instead of going top 15.

Exactly. People see the Panthers needing defensive help so they just slot Coples in there. He's a big reach.

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by Paul

I understand the reasoning for the Cowboys pick, but CB and Interior Oline are MUCH bigger needs for us right now. Another rush backer would be nice, but with Decastro, Cordy Glenn, Janoris Jenkins and Dennard still on the board, I'll likely punt a small innocent creature if we didn't take one of them.

I completely agree that cornerback is the Cowboys most pressing need, but as of right now they are in no-man's land for that position in the middle of round one. There is a big gap after Claiborne and Kirkpatrick. In fact, there is a strong chance that neither Jenkins or Dennard will even be selected in the first round, let alone the top twenty.

As for an interior offensive lineman, I think DeCastro would make sense for the Cowboys. However, does anyone really think Jerry Jones will take a blocker with his top pick two years in a row after not doing it for like two decades? I doubt it.

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by sweater-vest_mafia

Not bad for the Ravens :)

On a side note, I was somewhat surprised that Mike Adams fell out of your round one. I like Zebrie and think he is well worth a late 1st but I consider Mike Adams to be one of the top OT prospects.

Just wondering what your thought process was :)

There are mixed opinions on Mike Adams. Nobody denys the talent is there, but he is just too inconsistent and a bit of an underachiever. I wouldn't be shocked if Adams is in the late first round mix when all is said and done, but he has a lot of work to do at all-star games and workouts in the coming months because he isn't that highly regarded by scouts right now.

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by shylo3716

Melvin Ingram- Not so much disputing anything on him but will he be projected as an OLB or that is just your assessment on him?

Honestly, I am not sold that outside linebacker is going to be Ingram's best fit. That will have to be settled in the next few months when we get a chance to see him run through linebacker drills, etc. If I had to bet I'd say Ingram ends up as a defensive end in an even front, but linebacker is a real possibility. As I've said in the past, Ingram reminds me of Robert Ayers.

Originally Posted by shylo3716

Still no "Miller Time" in the 1st, is he really that hard to project a 1st Round slot for?

I think Miami (FL) RB Lamar Miller is more of a second or third rounder right now.

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by TACKLE

Burfict might be my favorite prospect in this draft but his stock is descending pretty significantly. His play had a notably dropped off this year as he wasn't even honorable mention All-Pac 12. I know you recognized it as a reach but 6th pick in the 2nd round seems far more likely at this point.

Believe me, I knew having Burfict in the Top 10 was going to be a controversial projection. I am sure we will talk about it extensively on the podcast on Tuesday, but here is a quick synopsis on my feelings.

Burfict is a potentially elite talent at the inside linebacker position. More talented than Rolando McClain (#8 overall in 2010) and probably the best since Patrick Willis. Is he immature? Yes. Does he need to be coached up and learn to control his emotions? Absolutely. However, as I've said all along I would rather have to pull the reins because a guy is too aggressive than the other way around. It's not like Burfict is necessarily a bad person, he just let's his emotions get out of control. Ndamukong Suh might be the dirtiest player in the league and I am pretty sure every team in the league would love to have him on their roster. The other factor is that at this point in the process I can't really speak to Burfict's character. I know what I've seen on film, but I haven't talked to him or anyone who has. If once Burfict has some interviews with teams and I start getting bad reports about his character then I will probably start factoring that into the equation more but at this point I have no reason to believe there are any issues serious enough to torpedo his grade.

As I mentioned in the analysis of the mock, I fully understand Burfict is a reach as sixth overall. However, I legitimately think he is a top ten talent who has a shot to go in the top dozen picks to fifteen picks or so. Also, what would be a better fit for the Eagles?

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by bearsfan_51

-Blaine Gabbert is not anyone's "quarterback of the future." The Jaguars probably aren't ready to admit that, but with a new owner and coach, they might be. Either way, Gabbert is trash.

It's WAY too early to be writing off Blaine Gabbert, who is playing with a bad offensive line and the worst set of receivers in the league. I'll be the first to admit that Gabbert has looked bad at times as a rookie and the Jaguars are doing everything they can to ruin him, but give the kid a few years.

Originally Posted by bearsfan_51

Someone will take Whitney Mercilus in the 1st round. Probably Jerel Worthy as well.

I just couldn't find a spot for Worthy. In fact, I had a tough time fitting both Still and Thompson in the first round. There just aren't many teams that need a 4-3 defensive tackle right now, at least not in round one.

[Scott Wright]

I'm not going to name any names, but there is one teams fanbase that is vastly overrating their own players. Reminds me of a few years ago when Bills fans thought Terrence Metcalf was the second coming of Anthony Munoz.

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by WT01

The Seahawks wouldn't draft Jones in a million years. He's a garbage prospect.

Who can argue with in-depth analysis like that! :o)

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by Miaoww

Exactly. People see the Panthers needing defensive help so they just slot Coples in there. He's a big reach.

So if the Panthers don't take Coples at #6 then who do they take?

Obviously Claiborne would be the ideal fit but he may be gone. I guess they could reach for Kirkpatrick, but he is closer to the twentieth picks than the fifth. In fact, I really struggled with putting Kirkpatrick as high as tenth. There isn't a defensive tackle worthy of being selected that early, plus the Panthers just spent two premium draft choices on McClain and Fua less than eight months ago. Unless they can get Claiborne there really isn't an obvious fit where need and value come together for Carolina.

[prock]

Obviously Kalil is the best pick for the Vikes, but who would you have us taking in round 2? Sanu? McDonald?

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by prock

Obviously Kalil is the best pick for the Vikes, but who would you have us taking in round 2? Sanu? McDonald?

I would say that other than offensive tackle the Vikings biggest needs are wide receiver, cornerback and safety. In fact, the Vikes may need four new starters in the secondary. The back end of their defense is simply an embarrassment.

By the way, for those who are interested I will be adding a second round to the mock after I get back from the Senior Bowl. So early February, as per usual.

[nepg]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

So if the Panthers don't take Coples at #6 then who do they take?

Obviously Claiborne would be the ideal fit but he may be gone. I guess they could reach for Kirkpatrick, but he is closer to the twentieth picks than the fifth. In fact, I really struggled with putting Kirkpatrick as high as tenth. There isn't a defensive tackle worthy of being selected that early, plus the Panthers just spent two premium draft choices on McClain and Fua less than eight months ago. Unless they can get Claiborne there really isn't an obvious fit where need and value come together for Carolina.

Panthers are obviously in a position to trade down. Could easily see them swapping with Cleveland with RG3 right there then snagging Kirkpatrick at #9. How high Kirkpatrick goes almost entirely depends on his combine numbers.

In that scenario, the Seahawks likely get Coples and everyone's happy because no one's left drafting Landry Jones in the first round.

[WT01]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

Who can argue with in-depth analysis like that! :o)

I've stated before here that he doesn't fit what the Seahawks look for in a QB. They want guys who have the athleticism to routinely rollout of the pocket, make throws on the run and run for first downs when they can. Really you can say that the entire NFL is starting to lean in that direction, seeing as how the first five QBs taken last year all had quite a bit of athleticism yet the best pure passer in the group, Ryan Mallett, didn't go until the middle of the third. Jones isn't the statue that Mallett is, no, but he has almost none of the passer qualities that Mallett has either and one could see that after he lost his best receiver to injury.

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by WT01

The Seahawks wouldn't draft Jones in a million years. He's a garbage prospect.

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

Who can argue with in-depth analysis like that! :o)

Originally Posted by WT01

I've stated before here that he doesn't fit what the Seahawks look for in a QB. They want guys who have the athleticism to routinely rollout of the pocket, make throws on the run and run for first downs when they can. Really you can say that the entire NFL is starting to lean in that direction, seeing as how the first five QBs taken last year all had quite a bit of athleticism yet the best pure passer in the group, Ryan Mallett, didn't go until the middle of the third. Jones isn't the statue that Mallett is, no, but he has almost none of the passer qualities that Mallett has either and one could see that after he lost his best receiver to injury.

That's better, and good point too!

I guess my argument would be that even if Jones isn't the ideal scenario for the Seahawks he is still much better than what the Seahawks currently have. After all, it's not like they can do into next season with Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst again.

Perhaps the Seahawks will wait and target a guy like Ryan Tannehill in the second round, although I am not sure he makes it to the middle of round two. That could end up being Seattle's only option though if Jones goes back to school, which I believe is a distinct possibility.

[shylo3716]

Originally Posted by shylo3716

Cleveland picks are very understandable, especially Richardson at #6 but don't you think the Browns should take a guy like Tannehill with their 2nd pick, because he could potentially have a season under his belt ala Dalton. My understanding is that by bringing in both Richardson & Floyd there will be no excuses for McCoy next season.

Scott what are your thoughts on the McCoy/Browns scenario, because I feel as though this is big.

[bearsfan_51]

Was it too early to give up on Jimmy Clausen? If not, it's not too early to give up on Blaine Gabbert. (I know, Clausen was a 2nd round pick, but still)

When someone is terrible, they're just terrible. You can wait 3 more years to figure that out, or you can move on.

Had Carolina passed on Newton because they had Clausen that would have been a terrible mistake.

[NGSeiler]

Morris Claiborne is a very real possibility for the Rams, given the health concerns regarding Ron Bartell and Bradley Fletcher. I absolutely understand the pick. But I'd be lying if I said coming out of the first round without help for this pathetic offense wasn't painful. It's a shame this team still has so many needs three years into the Spags regime.

[TACKLE]

Originally Posted by bearsfan_51

Was it too early to give up on Jimmy Clausen? If not, it's not too early to give up on Blaine Gabbert. (I know, Clausen was a 2nd round pick, but still)

When someone is terrible, they're just terrible. You can wait 3 more years to figure that out, or you can move on.

Had Carolina passed on Newton because they had Clausen that would have been a terrible mistake.

A good article on this very subject. If they went through with it, it would set a new precedent and I would give them a lot of credit for doing so.

http://www.jaguarsblog.com/sunk-cost.../#.TuFVPPK1XKd

[Matthew Jones]

I'm starting to think Brandon Thompson might be able to fit as a two-gap defensive end in New England, but Alfonzo Dennard would be a brutal pick. The Patriots have McCourty and Dowling as their two starting cornerbacks moving forwards and Kyle Arrington has had an amazing season this year (46.9 QB rating against with seven interceptions); Arrington projects as a great fit in the slot. Depth is an issue, but nowhere near a first-round issue. Courtney Upshaw would be a good fit there; he has bulk and experience playing in Nick Saban's 3-4 defense.

[shylo3716]

Originally Posted by NGSeiler

Morris Claiborne is a very real possibility for the Rams, given the health concerns regarding Ron Bartell and Bradley Fletcher. I absolutely understand the pick. But I'd be lying if I said coming out of the first round without help for this pathetic offense wasn't painful. It's a shame this team still has so many needs three years into the Spags regime.

My question to you is will the Rams make him the highest CB selected since Shawn Springs?

[bearsfan_51]

Originally Posted by TACKLE

A good article on this very subject. If they went through with it, it would set a new precedent and I would give them a lot of credit for doing so.

http://www.jaguarsblog.com/sunk-cost.../#.TuFVPPK1XKd

Exactly. Drafting Gabbert was a mistake (in my opinion). You don't compound that mistake by forcing yourself to live with it for the next 3-4 years.

Whoever is coaching the Jaguars next year won't have picked Gabbert, and the new owner won't have spent a single dime on him. I think it's misguided to think that anyone in the new Jaguars organization has any loyalty to him.

[Trogdor]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

I completely agree that cornerback is the Cowboys most pressing need, but as of right now they are in no-man's land for that position in the middle of round one. There is a big gap after Claiborne and Kirkpatrick. In fact, there is a strong chance that neither Jenkins or Dennard will even be selected in the first round, let alone the top twenty.

As for an interior offensive lineman, I think DeCastro would make sense for the Cowboys. However, does anyone really think Jerry Jones will take a blocker with his top pick two years in a row after not doing it for like two decades? I doubt it.

After watching this season can Jerry really afford to ignore the interior line? If DeCastro falls all the way to Dallas they cannot afford to pass. Besides it's well documented that the 'Boys war-room is run by consensus not solely by Jones; so the lack of interior line picks falls on the shoulders of the previous scouting teams, coaching staffs, as well as Jerry.

Don't get me wrong I can perfectly understand bringing in someone like Ingram I just see a lot more solid pass rushers in this draft than depth on the interior line. :)

[Sloopy]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

There are mixed opinions on Mike Adams. Nobody denys the talent is there, but he is just too inconsistent and a bit of an underachiever. I wouldn't be shocked if Adams is in the late first round mix when all is said and done, but he has a lot of work to do at all-star games and workouts in the coming months because he isn't that highly regarded by scouts right now.

Thanks Scott :) your not wrong. I've been projecting him higher based on my belief that he will impress in the off season but if your going on his stock now early second is about right.

[Sloopy]

Originally Posted by bearsfan_51

Exactly. Drafting Gabbert was a mistake (in my opinion). You don't compound that mistake by forcing yourself to live with it for the next 3-4 years.

Whoever is coaching the Jaguars next year won't have picked Gabbert, and the new owner won't have spent a single dime on him. I think it's misguided to think that anyone in the new Jaguars organization has any loyalty to him.

It's not wrong and I see the author's point, however, I don't agree with it; even though I hate Gabbert as well.

You can argue that improving the roster is the GM's job and that improving the QB position might be his most important. However, sunken costs isn't the only argument against it.

A. a greater net gain for the team can probably be found elsewhere, adding to another position such as receiver.

B. Drafting even a good QB into this situation and starting him is a terrible idea.

I wouldn't be absolutely opposed to the idea of drafting a QB I just think that the Jags might be one of the biggest stages set up for a young QB to fail as is out there right now.

[NGSeiler]

Originally Posted by shylo3716

My question to you is will the Rams make him the highest CB selected since Shawn Springs?

If Ron Bartell doesn't come back from his neck injury and Bradley Fletcher doesn't look the same after his second ACL tear, then maybe. The situation is complicated by the Rams having little quality depth behind those two at the position.

It's hard to get a read on anything, because it's entirely possible (if not probable) that the Rams are ushering in a new GM and head coach next year. My preference would be for Blackmon or Kalil, if he somehow got by Minnesota, and address the CB position later in the draft or free agency. But I do think Claiborne is an option depending on how things shake out.