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Old 12-19-2011, 06:00 PM    (permalink
Brent
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I remember the Niners fans of this board were all on the Willis bandwagon.

Can I take credit on Von Miller? I feel like my A&M bias negates that.

Oh, and I remember preparing myself for the Niners to take Maybin, which I was so against. Luckily that didn't happen.
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Old 12-19-2011, 06:19 PM    (permalink
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I'd also add myself to the Jimmy Williams list. I remember a picture of him was the first avy I had here. I was so excited when we traded up for him.
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Old 12-19-2011, 06:30 PM    (permalink
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<---Also was a major Cutler fanboy.

I loved Deangelo Williams, too. He was a beast from 08-09, but I think he's more in the miss category.

Also, Reggie Nelson...**** that guy.
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Old 12-19-2011, 06:38 PM    (permalink
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Also, Reggie Nelson...**** that guy.


I can't even begin to imagine how many people I debated that Landry was vastly superior to Nelson.
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Old 12-19-2011, 06:54 PM    (permalink
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Hits
- One of the few who really, really liked JPP. You just don't see a first step combined with that type of hip flexibility on a long-armed freak like that very often.
I think the thing with JPP was that while his athleticism was super obvious, it seemed like people were overestimating how effectively it would translate to the NFL. As a tackler, I saw him as more of a long, grabbing-type and not much of a hitter; in college he just had that huuuuge wingspan and would just reach over and around people and drag runners and QBs down. I thought once NFL tackles were between him and where he wanted to be, he'd be grabbing a lot more air. Not the case, evidently.

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I'll go by class.

... I also thought Antonio Pittman was going to be one of those guys who was pretty good in college and then explodes in the NFL.
Forgot about Pittman! I really liked him, too. Not as a first rounder, but while maybe not a "star" running back, thought he would certainly be in the mix for a starting position and contribute. Good production at OSU, good blend of speed and power. One of those guys where everything looks good - his measurables, his highlight tape - but then he goes lower than you thought and doesn't even live up to that. Thought he had what it took. Maybe he just wasn't that into it.

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Hakeem Nicks- makes great catches, a lot like bowe
Nicks was one of my favorite WR prospects I can remember, but I don't remember there being much controversy about him so I didn't mention him. I think what really sold me was watching him against... West Virginia? I think it was a bowl game. If I remember correctly. Just made crazy catches, and when the ball was in his hands looked like he could do whatever he wanted.

EDIT: (for video)


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Old 12-19-2011, 07:05 PM    (permalink
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In the past few years these were the ones I could come up with.

Hits:

Jamaal Charles- probably was my favorite back that year.

Connor Barwin- Wanted him on the Pats sooo bad.

Rob Gronkowski- Dream came true

Brandon Flowers- Loved his physicality, turned out to be a boss

Desean Jackson- Knew he would be a big play threat in the NFL, for a lot of people that was in doubt.

Von Miller- I would have been ok if the Pats traded every pick for him before the draft.

Misses:
Eric Norwood/Jason Worilids - Both were my undersized pass rusher crushes last year, both have done next to nothing in the NFL

Vernon Gholston- Epic Bust

Michael Crabtree- Thought 100 catch 10 TD seasons were going to be on the regular.

Brandon Tate- Though he would emerge as an explosive receiver

Aaron Curry- I thought he would be one of the best linebackers in the NFL

Taylor Mays- Blinded by Size/Speed combo, forgot the part that he couldn't play football.

Clay Mattews III- I thought he was going to bust big time
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Old 12-19-2011, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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Count me in on Jamaal Charles and Taylor Mays as a hit and a miss respectively. I was confounded how Charles got drafted as low as he did. Charles ran for 1600 yards his last year and ran 4.3. There were some concerns about size, but I thought it was pretty easy to see he was going to be a major playmaker in the NFL.
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Old 12-19-2011, 07:50 PM    (permalink
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Hits = Adrian Peterson, D'Brick Ferguson, Santonio Holmes, Calvin Johnson, Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler?, Matt Ryan, LaMarr Woodley, David Harris, Patrick Willis.....

Misses = Marshawn Lynch (thought he'd make a few pro bowls), Sinorice Moss (mostly a homer thing to my favorite cfb team), Jerry Hughes,

All I can think of without looking at each team's rosters.. Also how many here, would say the jury's still out for Cutler
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Old 12-19-2011, 08:23 PM    (permalink
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Misses = Marshawn Lynch (thought he'd make a few pro bowls),
I wouldn't necessarily call that a miss. He's one of the tougher runners to bring down in the NFL, and having a Pro-Bowl caliber season this year. (Full disclosure: Seahawks fan). For a 12th overall pick... You'd like to see a little more, but I think he's about what people expected. He's been on some bad teams, too.
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Old 12-19-2011, 08:26 PM    (permalink
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I loved Deangelo Williams, too. He was a beast from 08-09, but I think he's more in the miss category.
I don't think he's in the miss category, I just think any running back is going to have a hard time having huge production sharing a backfield with Jonathan Stewart, and now with Cam Newton. He's always had a high yards-per-carry, so the only real knock on him is that he hasn't had huge season totals, except for that period where Carolina gave it to him a lot. He's not a miss, he's just got to share his opportunities with some other really talented players.
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Old 12-19-2011, 09:42 PM    (permalink
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Interesting thread. I do a lot of my draft prospect work throwing stuff back and forth with a friend of mine (doesn't post here). He likes to throw the "I called it" in my face. He oddly was in love with TJ Yates. Thought he was the 3rd best QB prospect behind Newton and Dalton.

My HITS:
- QB Matt Ryan- I had several arguments with people thinking he was elevated due to his draft classmates at QB, including 1 with a Rams fan who was ecstatic they didn't take him
- OT Ryan Clady, was hoping he'd fall to the Bears at 14 that year
- WR Ted Ginn, literally LOL'd when the Dolphins picked him top 10
- CB Darrelle Revis, thought he was the best defensive player in the 07 draft. Didn't think this good though.
- DE Cliff Avril, Purdue is quietly a DE factory (played DE in college) with Rosey Colvin, Akin Ayodele Shaun Phillips, Ray Edwards, and Anthony Spencer before him and Ryan Kerrigan since.

My MISSES:
- WR Juaquin Iglesias, thought my Bears had a steal late in the 3rd round
- WR James Hardy, as a fellow Hoosier, I thought he'd have a big NFL career
- DT Alan Branch, thought he was going to be a monster of a DT
- LB Lamarr Woodley, LOL'd because a team was trying to make him a 3-4 OLB...oops
- WR Early Doucet, thought he was going to take over for Boldin as a 100 catch WR alongside Fitz

There's plenty others in both areas (mostly miss) and the jury is out on most guys as I've only really gotten into this stuff the last 4-5 years.
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Old 12-19-2011, 10:47 PM    (permalink
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Hits:

Greg Jennings:
Before I began religiously visiting this site I typed into google the best wr in college football and Jenning's name came up. I watched his highlights and fell in love with him even after Scott said not to believe in his press clippings. It was hilariously ironic.

Kyle Williams: (DT) Watched him in the senior bowl and saw his high motor play, so I decided he was underrated

Misses:

Cam Newton: Watched the National Championship game and saw him overthrow so many WRs. I guess it was the WRs fault afterall

Adrian Peterson: I thought he was overrated because his athletic ability and the grest team he played on. I thought his injuries would keep him off the field almost indefinitely, and where was he in the Boise St game.

Adam Carricker: I wanted the niners to draft him ahead of Willis, in hindsight I don't know what was wrong with me
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Old 12-19-2011, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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Hits

Clay Matthews - thought he was a top 10 talent.
Desean Jackson - my #1 receiver that year and top 15 talent.
Jay Cutler - had him as my #1 QB that year.
Chris Long - thought he would be a dominant DE for years to come.
Newton - had him as a top 10 QB in a couple of years.
Lawrence Timmons - my #2 linebacker that year only because of Willis, had him as a perennial pro bowler.

Misses

Brady Quinn - thought he was the best QB prospect in a couple of years.
Jimmy Clausen - thought that he would be a top 10 QB in 3-4 years.
Taylor Mays - thought he would be a very good safety with that athleticism.
Reggie Nelson - my #1 safety prospect of all time. Oops.
Gaines Adams - thought he would be the next beast DE (didn't pan out even before his death, RIP)
Vince Young - thought he would revolutionize the QB position.
Jamaal Anderson - thought that he would be a consistent 8+ sack per year guy.
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Old 12-19-2011, 11:13 PM    (permalink
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I don't remember many of my hits very well... Karl Klug and Taylor Mays are the only ones that really come to mind.

as for the misses-

Jamarcus Russell
Chris Johnson
Devin Thomas
Malcom Kelly
Troy Williamson
Michael Crabtree (maybe not a total miss, but I thought he was going to be a G.O.A.T.)
Jerry Hughes
Jamaal Anderson
Adam Carriker
Alphonso Smith
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Old 12-19-2011, 11:40 PM    (permalink
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Now seems like the appropriate time....

I've eaten crow for this earlier but Aldon Smith has proven me wrong big time. He was a boom-or-bust prospect and I put my chips on bust. I think coming back from the broken leg effected him a lot last year and in hindsight, I should of judged more off his RS freshman film when he was healthy.
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Old 12-19-2011, 11:42 PM    (permalink
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Hits

Jay Cutler - had him as my #1 QB that year.
Put Culter on my misses bc i thought he would be very good but he's very stupid with decisions, he's in between.
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Old 12-19-2011, 11:57 PM    (permalink
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Hits:

back in 04 i said Rivers would be the best QB; even with the down year he is still the best natural passer

2010 i saw jj arrington in cj spiller

I agreed with Ron Jaworski that cutler would be the better pro qb than leinart and young

misses:

vernon gholston. wtf happened?

Brian Brohom

Crabtree thought he had the chance to be an elite

Moreno; what mccoy is doing with the eagles thats what i expected from moreno
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Old 12-20-2011, 12:16 AM    (permalink
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S'pose while he's tearing it up tonight, I might as well mention Aldon Smith was my favorite defensive end prospect last year. ;-) Well, he and Cameron Jordan. Different types of players. Aldon Smith was my favorite pass rusher. Seem to remember some people really thought he was a product of the hype machine.
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Old 12-20-2011, 12:53 AM    (permalink
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I'll have to continue thinking about this for a full answer, but I get happy when I see Gronkowski dominating, as I was a huge fan of this kid. A lot of people had him rated in the second round which is decent, but I was one of the few who thought he would develop into a great tight end, not just say a very good one.

Oh yeah, I'm complete **** at rating quarterbacks. I was right on Ryan and Stafford, and the same depending on your opinion of Sanchez and Bradford, but wrong about basically everyone else, including Russell, Newton, Flacco, Quinn, Clausen, etc. I actually put no stock into my own ratings of quarterbacks anymore as a result.
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Old 12-20-2011, 03:42 AM    (permalink
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Hits (as much more successful than where drafted):
Michael Turner (5th): Great power back with good speed
Darren Sproles (5th): Small body, but played bigger. Very skilled.
Davone Bess (UDFA): Born to catch the ball. Slow and small, whatever.
Peyton Hillis (7th): Not much worse than Jones and Mcfadden, and could play FB too.

Hits (as busts)
Jamarcus Russel: I thought he had plenty of physical talent, but a ten cent head.
Troy Williamson: Catching the ball is an important part of being a receiver.
Jimmy Clausen: Just never impresssed.
JP Losman

Misses (Much better than I thought)
Aaron Rodgers: I thought he wasn't that talented.
Matt Ryan: I didn't like his accuracy, and thought he was pedestrian overall.
Ben Roethlisberger: Ditto on the accuracy. Now, he is an impressive playmaker, though his accuracy is slightly spotty.

Misses (Much worse than I thought)
JJ Arrington: I really though he would be good, and now he doesn't exist.
Aaron Curry
Reggie Bush: He's having a good year for the Dolphins, but I saw a Hall of Fame player. I thought he could run inside too.

Other:
Cadillac Williams: He seemed like he would be great at first, didn't he? I liked him far better than Ronnie Brown. No way to anticipate the severity with which he would be injured.

Phillip Rivers: When everyone thought he was a third rounder, I thought he was the best QB in that draft. I was right, but he made a steep climb in the rankings leading up to the draft.

Patrick Willis: I somehow didn't know he existed until my niners drafted him.

Alex Smith: A couple years ago, he would have been the prime exhibit in my misses category. With his immense improvement this year, and extending a bit to the two before, I don't know anymore. (Note: He is only 27).

Tim Tebow: I don't think he is very good at throwing the ball, but he has been quite successful winning this year. I suspect he will not keep it up, but I can't be sure. I thought he would be pretty decent at throwing, and was worth the pick due to his running and intangibles. (Another Urban Meyer QB).
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Old 12-20-2011, 07:26 AM    (permalink
rawdawg
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Originally Posted by BaLLiN View Post
Put Culter on my misses bc i thought he would be very good but he's very stupid with decisions, he's in between.
What year are you in? This isn't 2009 anymore. Granted, I'm probably a little biased, being a Bears fan, but you are talking about a guy who is 18-8 the last 2 seasons with a team that has made it clear they are the worst supporting cast in the league the last 4 weeks without him. He has a 4500 yard season under his belt. Jay Cutler is a very good NFL QB.
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Old 12-20-2011, 10:32 AM    (permalink
KLima878
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Also, Reggie Nelson...**** that guy.
As a Jags fan I couldn't agree more
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Old 12-20-2011, 10:55 AM    (permalink
phlysac
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My biggest miss...

I considered Dre Moore in a 1st round mock.





I thought he'd be great as a 5-tech.
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Old 12-20-2011, 11:43 AM    (permalink
DraftSavant
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Originally Posted by TACKLE View Post
Now seems like the appropriate time....

I've eaten crow for this earlier but Aldon Smith has proven me wrong big time. He was a boom-or-bust prospect and I put my chips on bust. I think coming back from the broken leg effected him a lot last year and in hindsight, I should of judged more off his RS freshman film when he was healthy.
Right there with you on that one, bro. That injury really affected his hip flexibility and explosiveness last year. He looked really stiff on tape.
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Old 12-20-2011, 02:06 PM    (permalink
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Hits: Brandon Mebane, Desmond Bishop

Miss: dwayne jarrett, taylor mays, and a lot more
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