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Old 12-20-2011, 01:11 PM    (permalink
Paul
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Put Culter on my misses bc i thought he would be very good but he's very stupid with decisions, he's in between.
Yeah. I don't get this.
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Old 12-20-2011, 01:12 PM    (permalink
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Last years draft

Hit: Cam Newton
I was a big Newton fan all last season and was one of the few posters that was saying he was worth a #1 pick. Newton has displayed the raw talent he has and now with the NFL coaching, he is just starting to become the "supastar" he is able to be.

Miss: Aldon Smith
I thought Smith was one of the reaches of the 1st round, but looking back I clearly missed here. Smith has translated to the 3-4 OLB position with ease already have has double digit sack #'s already.
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Old 12-20-2011, 02:05 PM    (permalink
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off the top of my head...

misses (thought they were gonna be good): colt brennan, reggie bush (according to my expectations), taylor mays, matt leinart, chad jackson, brady quinn, ahmad brooks, kai parham, tashard choice, shonn greene

misses (thought they were gonna be bad): matt stafford, clay matthews (not that i thought he was gonna be bad, just not this good)

I'm sure there are a ton more, but i gotta go take a dump.
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Old 12-20-2011, 04:46 PM    (permalink
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off the top of my head...

misses (thought they were gonna be good): ahmad brooks
Pat yourself on the back a little. He's started every game for the NFL's #1 defense.
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Old 12-20-2011, 06:53 PM    (permalink
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I get a lot better at scouting every year go by, so I don't really count my opinions before 2007 or so (16 y/o).

2003: Didn't like Carson Palmer; though Byron Leftwich was easily the best prospect. Liked Rex Grossman and Jimmy Kennedy. Loved Brandon Lloyd, couldn't understand why he fell so far. Loved Andre Johnson. Thought McGahee was worth a first round pick. Like Eugene Wilson and Andre Woolfolk (I consider Wilson a hit)

2004: Hated Robert Gallery as an OT, Michael Clayton and Kenechi Udeze. Liked all three QB's; ranked them Roethlisberger, Manning, Rivers (which is probably the correct ranking to this day, certainly in terms of SB's). LOVED Vince Wilfork. I liked Kevin Jones and Greg Jones as a HB. Thought Will Poole and Joey Thomas would be starting CB's in the league. Wasn't crazy about Tommie Harris.

2005: Considered BMW the best prospect in the draft. Thought Troy Williamson was terrible. Hated Alex Smith, but at this point, he's better than I expected he would be. Thought Kyle Orton was the top QB in the draft and worth a top 10 pick, with Aaron Rodgers only worth a 10-20 pick. Thought Cadillac Williams was the best RB in the draft. Hated Cedric Benson (Not sure if that's a hit or a miss). Liked Shawne Merriman, but didn't really understand the DeMarcus Ware love. Hated Pacman Jones, in part because he was a scumbag (though, he was a much better CB than I thought). Thought Antrel Rolle was a safety. Thought Derrick Johnson was worth a top 5 pick. Thought Justin Miller was worth a first rounder as a CB/KR prospect. LOVED Ernest Shazor. Liked Jammal Brown. Hated David Pollack and Erasmus James.

2006: Loved Bush and Leinart and ranked them #1 and #3, with Mario Williams in between. Liked Vince Young more than Cutler, but I liked both. Hated Tye Hill, Kelly Jennings and Jason Allen. Didn't understand why A.J. Hawk and Vernon Davis were taken so high, but I loved Michael Huff. Big DeAngelo Williams fan. Liked Brandon Marshall as a second round prospect. Though Max Jean-Gilles was a steal.

2007: Thought JaMarcus Russell was over-drafted though I thought he could be okay in a good situation. Thought Brady Quinn was easily the top overall QB, with Trent Edwards and Russell fighting for second. Top 5 prospects were: Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Quinn, Darrelle Revis and Amobi Okoye, in that order. Didn't see Jamaal Anderson as a good enough pass rusher to warrant a high pick. Thought Marshawn Lynch was a second round back (I stand by that, though he's awesome when in beast mode). Loved Reggie Nelson, gave him a top 10 grade. Loved Robert Meachem and Greg Olsen. Thought Lamarr Woodley was a stud.

2008: Going by memory, top 5 prospects were: Darren McFadden, Chris Long, Ryan Clady, Jake Long, Sedrick Ellis. So, pretty good. I also liked pretty much every skill position player that turned into a good player. Thought Terrell Thomas was awesome. I disliked Malcolm Kelly and Limas Sweed and hated James Hardy. Thought Josh Morgan, Earl Bennett and Andre Caldwell were nice sleepers. I did love Devin Thomas though. Other guys I liked that suck: Vernon Gholston, Leodis McKelvin, Antoine Cason, Brian Brohm. Rated Matt Ryan in the low 20's (usually where I rank QB's that everyone else likes and I don't, but I keep them in that area to hedge my bets in case I'm missing something).

2009: Thought Stafford was the best QB prospect I ever watched. Had Jason Smith as my #2 prospect with Sanchez #3 (both disappointing). Wasn't sure about Orakpo as an OLB. Liked Crabtree, Nicks, Britt, and Maclin in that order. HATED Knowshon Moreno, Robert Ayers and Aaron Maybin. Though Malcolm Jenkins could stick at CB. Thought Vontae Davis was a top five pick.

2010: Hated Clausen, liked Bradford. Actually, looking at the first round, nothing stands out as much different from mybig board....thought Rolando McClain, Anthony Davis and Derrick Morgan were overrated. Despised Tebow as a prospect. Loved Kyle Wilson. Loved Gronkowski. Hated Brandon Spikes.

2011: Here's my big board. Looks like I overrated Johnny Patrick. Completely forgot Marcel Dareus, he would have been top 10, probably just ahead of Ponder. Ranked Gabbert to hedge my bets, but I really disliked him. Swear to God, I had DeMarco Murray at #33.

1. Julio Jones
2. Prince Amukamara
3. Cam Newton
4. Nick Fairley
5. A.J. Green
6. Patrick Peterson
7. Christian Ponder
8. Von Miller (as a 4-3 OLB)
9. Aldon Smith
10. Robert Quinn
11. Derrek Sherrod
12. Mike Pouncey
13. Jake Locker
14. Ryan Kerrigan
15. Kyle Rudolph
16. Stephen Paea
17. Johnny Patrick
18. Cameron Jordan
19. Jimmy Smith
20. J.J. Watt
21. Tyron Smith
22. Gabe Carimi
23. Corey Liuget
24. Ryan Mallett
25. Taiwan Jones
26. Mark Ingram
27. Brandon Harris
28. Muhammad Wilkerson
29. Blaine Gabbert
30. Adrian Clayborn
31. Terrell McClain
32. Phil Taylor
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Old 12-20-2011, 06:56 PM    (permalink
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Ernest Shazor...now there's a name I haven't seen in a LONG time.
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Old 12-20-2011, 07:04 PM    (permalink
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Oh and before anyone asks, no, I do not expect anyone to read all that. But it was fun for me to go back and look at past drafts, so I decided to post it.
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Old 12-20-2011, 07:05 PM    (permalink
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Ernest Shazor...now there's a name I haven't seen in a LONG time.
Thought he was a top 10 prospect. Not sure why.
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Old 12-20-2011, 07:45 PM    (permalink
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Last years draft

Hit: Cam Newton
I was a big Newton fan all last season and was one of the few posters that was saying he was worth a #1 pick. Newton has displayed the raw talent he has and now with the NFL coaching, he is just starting to become the "supastar" he is able to be.

Miss: Aldon Smith
I thought Smith was one of the reaches of the 1st round, but looking back I clearly missed here. Smith has translated to the 3-4 OLB position with ease already have has double digit sack #'s already.
These were my top two hits and misses from this past draft I would say.
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Old 12-20-2011, 08:11 PM    (permalink
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I feel like everyone loved Ernest Shazor and Darnell Bing.
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Old 12-20-2011, 08:28 PM    (permalink
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Didn't like Bing. Did love Ko Simpson.
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Old 12-20-2011, 08:30 PM    (permalink
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I feel like everyone loved Ernest Shazor and Darnell Bing.
Nah, not me.

However, I will always hold a candle for Dwayne Slay.

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Old 12-20-2011, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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My two biggest, most memorable misses were Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington. Though Leftwich is still one of my favorite college players to this day.

My most recent hits (besides no brainers like Megatron and AD) are Mario "workout warrior" Williams and Matt Leinart. I knew Mario was/would be a beast and thought Lineart was terrible with a noodle arm who excelled only because of his absolutely stacked team. I could throw Matt Ryan in too. He really impressed me his senior year playing on an above average team at best.

On a side note, I loved Aldon Smith before the draft. Thought he moved like a basketball player... so smooth. Figured if he went to a 3-4 team it would be a pretty seamless transition. So glad he went to my Niners.
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Old 12-21-2011, 08:25 AM    (permalink
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Ernest Shazor...now there's a name I haven't seen in a LONG time.
What the hell happened to that guy? He was a five-star recruit and then a monster at Michigan and everybody thought that he would be a second round pick when he declared. Then he went undrafted and only one team even gave him a shot (the Cardinals cut him).

The only thing I could find in google was that he signed with the Orlando Predators, but then never reported. Neither the team nor the agent knew where he was and they wound up putting an APB out on him. Then the team waived him.

I'm guessing he went undrafted because teams figured out he that he was a flake?
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Old 12-25-2011, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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well.....lets see...

I'll just go back to 2005...don't feel like going all way the back to 1998. my first draft.

2005

MISS-Alex Smith-figured Smith was athletic and smart enough to be a successful NFL QB very quickly.

MISS-Cedric Benson-Big fan of Cedric Benson would have taken him ahead of Cadillac.

MISS-Troy Williamson-Loved his speed, too bad I didn't realize he couldn't catch. Whoops

MISS-Mike Williams-liked Braylon a bit more, but thought Mike would be a serviceable red zone target at the worst

Hit-Demarcus Ware-Loved this guy, best pass rusher in the league today

Hit-Shawn Merriman-Loved his intensity, shame the injuries derailed his career

Hit-Derrick Johnson-Took him awhile to become an elite player but I think he is there right now

Hit-David Pollack-Didn't really understand the Pollack hype, but if he wouldn't have gotten hurt he might have proved me wrong.

Miss-Erasmus James-Thought he would be an explosive pass rusher

Miss-Matt Coke Zero Jones-Felt that he would eventually develop into a good player with his size and speed

Miss-Aaron Rodgers-Might be my biggest draft miss ever, felt that he was too mechanical and he had the Tedford pedigree working against him

Hit-Heath Miller-Loved the pick at the time
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Old 12-28-2011, 04:29 PM    (permalink
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I only followed the last three drafts, and only last year did I follow it really closely. So that being said here's my list (could be off in a couple years as players might blossom/bust late).

Hits
-Andy Dalton: I didn't think he'd be a stud but I definitely thought he could be one of the better QBs in the league and arguably the best QB in that draft class.
-Casey Matthews: I adamantly bashed Matthews as nothing more than a backup and special teamer, and I haven't been impressed at all by him this year. It could change as he grows as a player but for now...

Misses
-Cam Newton: I thought he would really struggle to throw at the NFL level, and I thought he floated his passes too much and would be intercepted in tighter coverage situations (which is sort of true). But he's obviously shown that he can be a good passer at the NFL level so I was clearly wrong.
-Von Miller: I thought he was a one dimensional speed pass rusher, and thought he was a bad pick for my Broncos. Before he got the cast on he was a stud against the run too and was really good at shedding blocks/bull rushing too. Glad to be wrong here.
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Old 12-28-2011, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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HITS

1. Jon Beason: I remember being ecstatic when he was still on the board and the Giants were on the clock. Wanted him desperately and we ended up taking Aaron Ross. Just writing that makes me that much angrier. Words can not describe my hatred for Aaron Ross.

2. Cam Newton: Thought Cam had all the tools and size to be a very good starting quarterback at this level but didn't think he'd be this good and this early as well but I was on the Newton bandwagon.

3. Alex Smith: Didn't see the infatuation with him. Always did and still do think that he was a product of the Urban Meyer system. Just never saw anything special in the kid and still don't.

4. Brian Orakpo: Thought it was absolute highway robbery that he fell as far as he did. For sure had him penciled to Buffalo when he fell as far as he did when they took Aaron Maybin. Just didn't see the downside with this guy.

5. Ray Rice: I remember having Ray Rice pegged to the Seahawks at the end of the 1st round in my mock draft and saying I thought he would be the best running back in his class. Loved him from the start. Remember calling him "MJD light".

MISSES

1. Joey Harrington: Man, did I love this kid coming out of school. Thought he had it all and that giant billboard of him in NYC didn't help either.

2. Robert Gallery: Was incredibly pissed when the Giants didn't end up getting him. I thought for sure that, if we took him, he'd be our LT for a decade.

3. Teyo Johnson: Remember him? One of the first guys to go from college basketball player to professional football player and also played a couple of seasons of football at Stanford as well. I thought he was going to be an absolute beast at the next level at tight end for Oakland. Never happened.

4. Vladimir Ducasse: I know he is raw but man, I thought this guy was going to turn into a mauler for the Jets. I couldn't have been more wrong. He's not close to sniffing the field for them and it wouldn't shock me at all if he isn't on the team next year.
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Old 12-28-2011, 08:33 PM    (permalink
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Oh my, this is going to take a while.

2006
Hits

Haloti Ngata - I thought he would be good, but not this good.
Antonio Comartie - He's still my favorite CB prospect ever
DeAngelo Williams - Loved him. Disappointed by his pro career so far, actually.
Marcedes Lewis - I thought he'd be the next big thing at the TE position after Tony Gonzalez
Maurice Jones Drew - I loved both the UCLA guys that year. I thought MJD would be a stud.
Misses
Vince Young - Needs no explanation.
Michael Huff - I thought he was the next Ed Reed.
Tye Hill - Sad panda.
Jimmy Williams - I loved him.

2007
Hits

Ryan Kalil - Quite liked him.
Lamar Woodley - I was a big Woodley fan, wanted him on the Ravens
Marshawn Lynch - Obviously Adrian Peterson is the best RB prospect I've ever seen, but I loved Lynch as well.
Misses
Aaron Ross - I thought he was going to be a good one.
Jamaal Anderson - I loved the versatility along the defensive line, but he was oh so slow.

2008
Hits

John Stewart - Still one of my favorite RB prospects.
Brandon Flowers - Was my #2 CB in the draft behind Mike Jenkins.
Desean Jackson - One of the most electrifying college players I've ever seen.
Misses
Felix Jones - I thought he'd be much, much better then Darren McFadden.
Quentin Groves - Another guy I wanted to have on the Ravens quite badly.

Bit of Both
Mike Jenkins - I wanted him so badly on the Ravens.

2009
Hits

Clay Mathews - Was #1 on my Ravens wishlist that year. Even drafted him in the Forum Mock.
Mike Oher - He was my #1 OT throughout the entire draft process.
Brandon Pettigrew - Loved that he was a complete TE.
Misses
Sean Smith - Was another one of my favorite players in the draft. Wouldn't have had a problem with him to the Ravens in Round 1. I had a massive fit when Ozzie drafted Kruger over him in Round 2.
Phil Loadholt - I thought he'd be a good one.

2010
Hits -

Dez Bryant - He was my #3 player in the entire draft.
Sean Weatherspoon - My #2 choice after Dez for the Ravens. Boo Falcons.
Rob Gronkowski - He was another guy I would have loved in the first round. I was a huge fan.

Misses -
CJ Spiller - One of my favorite RB prospects since I started scouting. Showing a little this year, but I expected big things.
Jerry Hughes - This one speaks for itself.
Ryan Mathews - I thought he was overdrafted by nearly a full round.

There are probably many more, but those are the first that came to mind.
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Old 12-28-2011, 08:38 PM    (permalink
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Bit of Both
Mike Jenkins - I wanted him so badly on the Ravens.
Mike Jenkins is actually having a really good year, but he's been hurt and only has 1 pick so people don't notice. Next year is his contract year, and I expect a big year from him if healthy.
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Old 12-28-2011, 08:42 PM    (permalink
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Mike Jenkins is actually having a really good year, but he's been hurt and only has 1 pick so people don't notice. Next year is his contract year, and I expect a big year from him if healthy.
There's a difference between expecting a big year from someone and actually getting that big year right now.

Mike Jenkins has been awful for the past two years. There is little reason to expect him to be an elite CB at any point in the future.
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Old 12-28-2011, 09:21 PM    (permalink
CDCB14
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There's a difference between expecting a big year from someone and actually getting that big year right now.

Mike Jenkins has been awful for the past two years. There is little reason to expect him to be an elite CB at any point in the future.
Actually, your completely wrong. He made the pro-bowl in 2009. He had a bad year last season, but he has rebounded well this year when healthy. I think he gets labelled wrongfully because the rest of the cowboys secondary is awful. Jenkins is having a good year and it should continue into the future if he stays healthy. We'll just have to wait and see I guess.
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Old 12-28-2011, 09:58 PM    (permalink
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Noteworthy Hits:
JaMarcus Russell (Bust) - Duh
Jarvis Moss (Bust) - 56.5 KEI, uggh.
Derrick Harvey (Bust) - Just didn't like him as an athlete
Johnathon Stewart (Stud) - Starting to put it together if healthy
Aaron Maybin (Bust) - Poor speed/quickness ratio.

Noteworthy Misses:
Cam Newton (Bust) - Yeah, I've already taken my heat for this one.
James Hardy (Stud) - 6'6" 215 lbs receiver that runs a 4.45? Can't lose right?
Brian Robiskie (Stud) - Kid really disappointed me.
Larry English (Stud) - Hey, 69.5 KEI...just sayin...
Limas Sweed (Stud) - Another big/fast receiver with excellent college production.

Edit: I DID like Clay Matthews a lot after his pro day. But no, I didn't think he was gonna be this good.
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Old 12-29-2011, 02:49 PM    (permalink
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I'm bored, so I'll go a little bit more in depth. (Starting in 2006, when I joined/really started to get into the draft)


2006


Hits:
Vernon Davis (Thought he was an absolute stud)
D'Brick (Thought he'd be a top flight pass blocker)
Elvis Dumervil (Big, big fan, didn't care that he wasn't tall, a natural)
Matt Leinart (Never saw him being decent)
MJD (Thanks for making me a believer Keak)
Ko Simpson (Despite Scar being in love with him, I was not a fan)
DeAngelo Williams (I'm calling it a hit because he's good, but it's probably more a both. I thought he'd be a top 5 back.)

Miss:
Michael Huff (though'd he be an elite safety)
Ernie Sims
Laurence Maroney (Wanted him badly, thought he'd be a monster in our old ZBS)
Jimmy Williams (I can't tell you how happy I was when we made that trade)
Darnell Bing (Whoops.)



2007

Hits:
Calvin Johnson (Easy)
LaRon Landry (Wanted him to fall to 8 so damn bad. So upset when the Skins picked him.)
Adrian Peterson (Knew he'd be an absolute monster)
Lawrence Timmons (Loved that man as a prospect)
Sabby Piscatelli (Never understood why Bucs fans loved that pick)
Michael Bush (Had confidence in him being a good back, even after injury)
Brady Quinn (Hated)
Anthony Gonzalez (Hated)
Jon Beason
Dwayne Bowe

Miss:
Amobi Okoye (Thought he would be a great 43 UT)
Brandon Merriweather
Alan Branch
Eric Weddle
Chris Houston
Lorenzo Booker

2008

Hits:
Chris Long (Took him a bit, but I was an enormous fan)
Darren McFadden (Thought he was just a tick below AD)
DeSean Jackson
Jamaal Charles
Curtis Lofton
Jermichael Finley
DRC
Aquib Talib

Misses:
Matt Ryan (it took a lot of toonster convincing for me to finally come around to: "He won't be awful")
Glenn Dorsey (expected dominance)
Dennis Dixon (thought he'd actually be starter material)
Keith Rivers (Loved)
Jerome Simpson (Loved)
Leodis McKelvin
Chilo Rachal
Dexter Jackson

2009

Hits:
Matthew Stafford
Brian Cushing
Vontae Davis
William Moore
Shon Greene (Never liked)
Shady McCoy
Brian Orakpo

Misses:

Michael Crabtree (Man crush)
Knowshon Moreno (Had him behind McCoy at least!)
Malcolm Jenkins (I blame this one on Jimmy Williams)
Clay Matthews
Ziggy Hood
Phil Loadholt
Michael Johnson (Thought he'd be elite)
Lawrence Sidbury (Thought he'd be a really nice pass rusher)


2010

Hits:
Joe Haden
JPP
Sean Weatherspoon
Dez Bryant
Jermaine Gresham
Jimmy Graham
Aaron Hernandez
Eric Decker

Misses:
Brandon Graham
CJ Spiller (Starting to turn it around?)
Dexter McCluster
Sergio Kindle
Rennie Curran
Carlos Dunlap
Kyle Wilson


2011 (Early Indications):

Hits:
Von Miller
AJ Green
Tyron Smith
Robert Quinn
Ryan Kerrigan
Patrick Peterson

Miss:
Cam Newton: Had no problems with anything (motion, arm, running ability, offense he came out of, etc.) But I apparently really underestimated his intelligence. Listening to him speak/watching Gruden's QB camp, I thought he was a complete moron who wouldn't be able to deal with an NFL playbook.

Andy Dalton: Good backup, nothing more.

Adrian Clayborn: Cripple.
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Old 12-29-2011, 03:26 PM    (permalink
Caulibflower
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2009

Hits:
...
Shon Greene (Never liked)
...a 1,000 yard rusher who was picked in the third round? I'm not saying he's great, but...
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Old 12-30-2011, 11:13 AM    (permalink
ATLDirtyBirds
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...a 1,000 yard rusher who was picked in the third round? I'm not saying he's great, but...

Yeah, maybe that's a bit of a stretch I just don't ever watch him and think, "He's a good RB".


But also on my misses, add Dorin Dickerson in whatever draft he was in. I was such a big fan of that guy.
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