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Old 12-22-2011, 10:41 PM    (permalink
Razor
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Originally Posted by benchod View Post
Just to throw a bone in the "over-analyzed" argument.

Matt Leinart is usually named as the prime example, but to play devil's advocate, the draft order and the needs of the teams usually comes into play too.

The big key for the coming years is now how willing teams are to trade up. Its much cheaper financially to move up, so you may actually have more movement. This time next year, everyone will bring up Pete Carroll doing some funky business to try to trade up to get Barkley...
I'm pretty sure that Carroll can trade down and still get Barkley next year.
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Old 12-22-2011, 10:47 PM    (permalink
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I wonder if he will try to get Kalil to stay now that he is staying.
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Old 12-22-2011, 10:52 PM    (permalink
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I saw this coming all season long after the Stanford game.He has got the "IT" factor for a QB and was fun to watch vs Oregon as well as Stanford games. I'm sure they will have a good chance to roll the table next season and be a top 5 team again. They just can't fold under pressure and lose out like they did in Stanford. I just wish SF could land a QB like him and it would really take off our offense in storm.
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Old 12-22-2011, 11:16 PM    (permalink
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Guy I trust on this type of thing is suggesting that Barkley may have gotten Locker'd by the Advisory Committee

Of course, they were probably wrong about Locker given what happened the following year...
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Old 12-22-2011, 11:23 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by SchizophrenicBatman View Post
Guy I trust on this type of thing is suggesting that Barkley may have gotten Locker'd by the Advisory Committee

Of course, they were probably wrong about Locker given what happened the following year...
Locker said he was staying before he got anything from the draft advisory board, for what it's worth.
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Old 12-23-2011, 02:11 AM    (permalink
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I think if you were to go into the future and tell Matt Barkley that he was going to lose x amount of $ from not declaring, he wouldn't change a thing.

Comparing Sanchez to Barkley is kinda ridiculous. Sanchez was a one year wonder while Barkley has had 3 solid years to back it up.
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Old 12-23-2011, 03:21 AM    (permalink
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I'm a USC fan so obviously I'm biased, but I still think he made the best decision for him.

He has a real legitimate shot at winning a Championship next year and opportunities like that are pretty rare. Who knows if he'll ever have as good an opportunity again. There's a lot more talented QBs than him who have played in the NFL and never come close to winning a Championship. Carson Palmer came out of SC as a far more physically gifted QB and 9 years on he still hasn't even won a single playoff game. Even if Matt does turn into a stud NFL QB, there's still no guarantee he'll sniff a Championship (see Dan Marino). There's so much more that goes into winning a Championship in the NFL than how talented you are. You need great pieces around you, great coaching and a lot of luck.

Matt never won a State Championship in high school, and in college, the only bowl game he ever played in was the Emerald Bowl his freshman year. This next year could be his first and quite possibly, his only, real legitimate shot at winning a Championship. And as great as money is, when his football career's over I'm sure its the Championships and the great memories they create that will mean way more to him than how much money he has in his bank account.

He'll go high enough in the draft next year that he will be financially secure for life. Why not chase something that no amount of money can ever buy?
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Old 12-23-2011, 03:35 AM    (permalink
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Also as far a losing a year of earning potential that's true, but Matt can make back a lot of that money in marketing dollars next year.

He plays in the second biggest market in the U.S. and with him deciding to come back for his senior year, many are already calling him the greatest Trojan ever. That's a pretty huge deal in the LA market.

He's also now the favorite to win the Heisman trophy. Having Heisman Trophy Winner next to his name will increase his marketabily immensely. As will being the #1 overall draft pick, which he at least now has the chance of being with Luck out of the picture.

Matt will be fine from a financial standpoint, and if he takes care of business on the field, he may actually make more money by staying this extra year.

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Old 12-23-2011, 04:19 AM    (permalink
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There are guys coming out in 2013 whose physical tools and ability to flat out spin the football are going to take some of the shine off Barkley's pro prospects.

Mike Glennon is already being called 'Matt Ryan with an elite arm' at NC State.
Casual fans forget that Tyler Bray was hurt for much of last season and would have had a career year if he played the entire year.(BTW I think Bray stays all four years.)

Geno Smith is poised to have a RGIII type breakout season.

And Tyler Wilson is being called potentially a better pro prospect on the field than Ryan Mallett.

We still don't know if Robert Griffin is going back to Baylor(!).

When it's all said and done, Barkley may still end up being the 3rd QB off the board when he declares.

Barkley was never this scary elite type NFL prospect anyway.
He was a 'safe', polished prospect who you felt understood the position and did all those little things right from the pocket.

Wish I could project the NFL teams picking at the top of the 2013 draft.
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Old 12-23-2011, 04:29 AM    (permalink
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Bray would be stupid to declare early considering his 6'6" frame with ~200 pound frame. I think him and I are around the same size, despite him being 6 inches taller and I'm pretty frail (in football terms)
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Old 12-23-2011, 04:53 AM    (permalink
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As a USC fan, I'm glad he is coming back, but I do think it is a mistake. With half decent planning, the first contract for an early pick can still make you set for life, and you never know what is going to happen in a year; I certainly worry about my own financial fate. He isn't going to lose any money long term by going back, most likely, but that qualifier is important. Winning a national championship is a nice and laudable goal, but if he'd asked me, I would have told him to go pro.

This is excellent news for the QBs that are entering the draft, since there is one fewer great one to go around, and no shortage of teams desperate to have one. This makes a run vastly more likely.

Unlike some of the other people in this thread appear to think, Barkley isn't some high floor, low ceiling kind of a guy. His floor is high, but his ceiling is very high. It is impossible to truly tell at this point, but Barkley has a very legitimate possibility of being the best QB in the NFL someday.

Of course, even getting back their best player doesn't mean it will be easy for USC to win the title -there will be a lot of excellent teams in their way. His return could very well end up being for naught. Still, the will displayed is admirable. Even ignoring that I like USC, I hope he gets what he came back for.
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Old 12-23-2011, 05:19 AM    (permalink
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...is it just me, or is every Junior Year QB with 1st Round projections who elects to remain in school for their Senior Year ritualistically raked over the coals by the skeptics?

Seeing Scotty's analysis of the Barkley Decision is practically point for point what was being said about Jake Locker last year, and probably the same for Matt Leinart too. The arguments deriding the decision may as well become the cliche bukkake of Draft Pick analysis. If another QB in future years fits that particular criteria to a 'T', you can expect the very same arguments to be re-hashed.
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Old 12-23-2011, 06:42 AM    (permalink
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Seeing Scotty's analysis of the Barkley Decision is practically point for point what was being said about Jake Locker last year, and probably the same for Matt Leinart too. The arguments deriding the decision may as well become the cliche bukkake of Draft Pick analysis. If another QB in future years fits that particular criteria to a 'T', you can expect the very same arguments to be re-hashed.
They were the same for Brian Brohm, also. The thing with Brohm is, he did get exposed his senior year, plunge to the second round, get cut, and end up out of the NFL within a few years. Brohm never made the money that he would have been given as even a top-25 pick, and he will have to find a job after football.

So it doesn't always work out like it did for Locker.
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Old 12-23-2011, 08:54 AM    (permalink
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Glad to hear is is staying. If Gabbart doesn't show any signs of major improvement next year, I'd love to see him taken by the Jags next year.
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Old 12-23-2011, 10:40 AM    (permalink
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I will be disappointed if people don't analyze Barkley's mental makeup and "love for the game" like they did when Locker went back.
I totally agree, what separates the Rodgers, Petyon, Brady and Brees from the pack, their total commitment to be the best they can be and they bring a mental toughness to the playing field that is unmatched in the NFL. They put 110% into the game of football if not more.

Barkley's decision to return to school is going to be questioned by every GM in the pro football business, they will question his commitment to the game, his determination to be the best, and his mental toughness.

If we look at the QB's who returned to school, we find Leinart, Bradford and Locker, all pretty high draft picks, but in my opinion, all 3 appear to lack the dedication and mental toughness to be the best and I really question their commitment to pro football.

Barkley, will be a high first rounder but I doubt any solid GM would now take him in the draft. Fortunately, for Barkley, there are plenty of mediocre GM's and owners who will take the gamble.
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Old 12-23-2011, 11:05 AM    (permalink
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Not surprised at all. Every year seems to have a top ranked QB decide to stay and this year was going to be no different. Barkley seemed like the most likely to stay. USC has to be considered a contender for the national championship next year. Sucks for the Dolphins but I was/am still hoping for RG3 over Barkley anyway.
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Old 12-23-2011, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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If we look at the QB's who returned to school, we find Leinart, Bradford and Locker, all pretty high draft picks, but in my opinion, all 3 appear to lack the dedication and mental toughness to be the best and I really question their commitment to pro football.
Peyton Manning decided to return to school, reportedly after Drew Bledsoe warned him that it sucks being a QB for Bill Parcells. When Peyton announced that he would return for his senior year, Parcells was supposedly outraged and he wound up trading the pick.
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Old 12-23-2011, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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Peyton Manning decided to return to school, reportedly after Drew Bledsoe warned him that it sucks being a QB for Bill Parcells. When Peyton announced that he would return for his senior year, Parcells was supposedly outraged and he wound up trading the pick.
When Peyton was drafted, over 95% of QB's waited till their senior year before entering the draft. What he did was considered by the pros to be the proper way to prepare for the NFL and almost all followed that route.

Today, it is a totally different world, where a Barkley stands out by returning to school, it is no longer the guaranteed route for NFL success like it was when Manning returned to school. So I don't think their decisions can be compared.
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Old 12-23-2011, 11:38 AM    (permalink
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People are really selling Barkley short considering he outplayed Andrew Luck this season. He's a really really talented guy. Too many people associate QB "talent" with "can throw the ball through a brick wall". He's really good and the best Trojan QB prospect since Palmer.
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Old 12-23-2011, 11:42 AM    (permalink
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People are really selling Barkley short considering he outplayed Andrew Luck this season. He's a really really talented guy. Too many people associate QB "talent" with "can throw the ball through a brick wall". He's really good and the best Trojan QB prospect since Palmer.
Some people focus too much on skillset, others focus too much on narrative.

"He's the best Trojan QB since Palmer; he outplayed Andrew Luck this season." What does that really even mean? It's narrative - white noise.
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Old 12-23-2011, 11:47 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by DraftSavant View Post
Some people focus too much on skillset, others focus too much on narrative.

"He's the best Trojan QB since Palmer; he outplayed Andrew Luck this season." What does that really even mean? It's narrative - white noise.
Best Trojan QB prospect IMO since Palmer (#1), so better than Sanchez (#5) and Leinart (#10). That's one thing to take from that bit.
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Old 12-23-2011, 12:13 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
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It sucks for someone following the draft or a random fan scouting prospects, but part of me still thinks most NFL GMs would prefer QB prospects to stay in college all four years instead of coming out early.

The future HOF QBs currently playing in the NFL - take your pick - are all four year guys.
You simply can't replicate the reps of live game action in a 7 on 7 drill or a scrimmage.
The more snaps a college QB can take in meaningful games, the better he's going to be at the next level.

Football isn't like basketball; there's really no equivalent in football to a shooting guard taking a thousand jump shots alone on a basketball court.
To get better as a football player, you need to PLAY.

Barkley will be better simply because of the fact he's going to be playing under more scrutiny and more pressure next season, and if the Trojans make it to the NC game Matt will probably face an SEC defense with pro caliber talent lined up across from him.

I think we all make a mistake in projecting true junior QBs into the draft.

IMO a guy like RGIII is different.

Griffin has been in college four years and was penciled in as the starter at the beginning of every season. I don't think his draft stock will suffer that much although I think he has a shot to be the 2nd QB drafted this year.

Griff had a good season in '10 and an all-world season in '11. If he stays I think he plays somewhere between those two.
RGIII IMO risks injury more than Barkley because of his playing style, and he's going to miss like hell Ganaway and Wright.

RGIII paid his dues to Baylor, made history for that program and has already completed his undergrad degree.
There's no reason for him to return back to that program.
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Old 12-23-2011, 12:32 PM    (permalink
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Best Trojan QB prospect IMO since Palmer (#1), so better than Sanchez (#5) and Leinart (#10). That's one thing to take from that bit.
If you forget Leinart's non-existent pro career, I'd rank Barkley above Sanchez but below Leinart and Palmer as a pro prospect.

I have yet to see how Barkley plays against a truly elite football team. Stanford and Oregon don't count.

I saw Leinart ball out as a RS sophomore against an Auburn team at home in Birmingham that would finish undefeated in the SEC on season later. And I saw him go blow for blow with a Longhorns squad that had future pros at every position in the secondary.
As a junior, Leinart and the Trojans raped an undefeated Sooners team in the Rose Bowl, a game in which Leinart threw 5 TDs.

Leinart IMO was the most clutch football player on those Trojan teams and the one player they could least afford to lose.

Barkley has nice stats, but IMO he lacks a signature win.
Leinart beat equally talented, elite football teams during his USC career.
So far Barkley hasn't.
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Old 12-23-2011, 12:42 PM    (permalink
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If you forget Leinart's non-existent pro career, I'd rank Barkley above Sanchez but below Leinart and Palmer as a pro prospect.

I have yet to see how Barkley plays against a truly elite football team. Stanford and Oregon don't count.

I saw Leinart ball out as a RS sophomore against an Auburn team at home in Birmingham that would finish undefeated in the SEC on season later. And I saw him go blow for blow with a Longhorns squad that had future pros at every position in the secondary.
As a junior, Leinart and the Trojans raped an undefeated Sooners team in the Rose Bowl, a game in which Leinart threw 5 TDs.

Leinart IMO was the most clutch football player on those Trojan teams and the one player they could least afford to lose.

Barkley has nice stats, but IMO he lacks a signature win.
Leinart beat equally talented, elite football team during his USC career.
So far Barkley hasn't.
Barkley lead a game winning drive at Ohio State as a freshman. Won at Oregon this year (not sure why that doesn't count).
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Old 12-23-2011, 12:52 PM    (permalink
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Some people focus too much on skillset, others focus too much on narrative.

"He's the best Trojan QB since Palmer; he outplayed Andrew Luck this season." What does that really even mean? It's narrative - white noise.
Exactly!! THANK YOU!! Who gives half a flying duck about stories. "USC vs. Stanford" is way different than "Andrew Luck vs. Matt Barkley" even though they played each other, it doesn't mean that they played the same defenses in the game and had the same surrounding talent.

I hate USC but I must say, Matt Barkley is a winner that can actually play the quarterback position. He's extremely dedicated and loyal to his team and teammates. I don't know if everyone remembers him graduating early from Mater Dei to enroll early at USC and practice in the spring with the team before his freshman year. He flat out won the starting job over Mustain and Corp, and despite being a freshman, did a very good job. He rarely makes poor decisions, is very accurate and flat out plays. Although his stats were sub-par his senior year in high school due to a lack of support, I don't see his play declining at USC. He WILL put up better numbers than he did this year and will be picked #1 overall...

...Hopefully by the Browns.
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