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Old 11-29-2011, 10:01 AM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
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Originally Posted by jbooshey View Post
So if I take John Clay's best TD season (18) and PJ Hill's best TD season (15) and add them together (33)... and then take Montee's season IN PROGRESS WITH 2 GAMES TO GO and add his total TD amount (34)...then I project his pace to 40 TD's...and then I look at you as if you are a total nut job for not thinking Ball has done anything special in regards to backs like Clay and Hill.

Also...without looking it up...it is probably safe to assume that Ball has more receiving yards this year then Clay and Hill had in their combined seasons.

Also part II...Ball's TD pass this year won't count for some reason towards his TD total.
What I said..."WHat Montee Ball is doing besides his TD scores isn't off the charts for the Badgers program."

I'm referring to his rushing yards. It's hard to extrapolate rushing TDs exclusively for a RB prospect to the next level.

Ball has 29 rushing TDs, but only 1622 yards rushing. So I would assume those scores are mostly short runs and not of the 25+ yards variety.
Most college backs with over 25 TDs rushing in a season have rushed for over 2K.

The only thing his TDs mean to me is that in the redzone Ball has a nose for the goal line.
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Old 11-29-2011, 10:58 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
What I said..."WHat Montee Ball is doing besides his TD scores isn't off the charts for the Badgers program."

I'm referring to his rushing yards. It's hard to extrapolate rushing TDs exclusively for a RB prospect to the next level.

Ball has 29 rushing TDs, but only 1622 yards rushing. So I would assume those scores are mostly short runs and not of the 25+ yards variety.
Most college backs with over 25 TDs rushing in a season have rushed for over 2K.

The only thing his TDs mean to me is that in the redzone Ball has a nose for the goal line.
Most of the time people don't criticize someone with 29 TDs and 1600 rushing yards for lack of production. I guess 6.5 YPC isn't good enough for funbuncher. With that many TDs he better have at least 8!
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Old 11-29-2011, 11:04 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post

Ball has 29 rushing TDs, but only 1622 yards rushing. So I would assume those scores are mostly short runs and not of the 25+ yards variety.
Most college backs with over 25 TDs rushing in a season have rushed for over 2K.

The only thing his TDs mean to me is that in the redzone Ball has a nose for the goal line.
Did some quick research:

- Montee: 20 of his 29 rushing scores were less than 10 yards. thats 68.9% of his scores close to the goalline

- Trent Richardson: 16 of his 20 rushing scores were inside the 10 for a percentage 80%

- Joseph Randle: 18 of his 21 scores were inside the 10. 85.7%

- Cameron Marshall: 14 of 18 were inside 10. 77.7%

- Lamichael: 11 of 14 were inside 10. 78.5%

- I looked at several others but Lamar Miller was the only one whose ratio of short td's:tot. td's was better than Montee's. he only has scored 9 tds but 3 were less than 10 and 6 were 20 yards or greater.

I only used backs from BCS conferences, while you are correct about him having a nose for the goalline, the majority of other good backs in the country have a lower percentage of long touchdown runs.
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Old 11-29-2011, 11:07 AM    (permalink
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Is "the ability to score long touchdowns" something that really projects to the NFL? Or is it more a function of inferior competition and/or blown assignments that are unlikely to be repeated in the NFL.

I don't know about you, but I just don't see a lot of long touchdown runs in the NFL these days. I'm not sure if it's the thing I would be concerned about.
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Old 11-29-2011, 11:38 AM    (permalink
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Is "the ability to score long touchdowns" something that really projects to the NFL? Or is it more a function of inferior competition and/or blown assignments that are unlikely to be repeated in the NFL.

I don't know about you, but I just don't see a lot of long touchdown runs in the NFL these days. I'm not sure if it's the thing I would be concerned about.
Very good point.
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Old 11-29-2011, 11:13 PM    (permalink
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Is "the ability to score long touchdowns" something that really projects to the NFL? Or is it more a function of inferior competition and/or blown assignments that are unlikely to be repeated in the NFL.

I don't know about you, but I just don't see a lot of long touchdown runs in the NFL these days. I'm not sure if it's the thing I would be concerned about.
You want to ask Marcus Allen that? Any running back will tell you that the hardest run is the goal line run. Allen mastered it... look at the best RB in football this year Matt Forte, he gets taken out on goal line and short yardage plays.
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Old 11-30-2011, 01:12 AM    (permalink
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I don't know what his rushing TDs tell you about Bell as a pro prospect. Yeah its an important part of the evaluation,( if Bell for instance only scored 2 rushing TDs I'm sure it would be viewed as a negative).

But with Montee Ball's TD numbers, IMO it's more important to look at HOW he's scoring those TDs, not HOW MUCH.

When you look at a game by game stat breakdown of Barry Sanders 39 TDs at Ok State, he was scoring at least one TD a game that was 30+ yards or longer. It wasn't blown coverages or missed assignments that created those runs. Barry Sanders couldn't be tackled in the open field once he hit the second level of college defenses. Too quick, too elusive. Too instinctive.

I'm not downgrading the value of being able to rush for TDs near the goal line. It's a part of the reason John Riggins is in the HOF.

But I just don't know anything definitive about Montee Ball because he's rushed for almost 30 TDs.

He looks like a solid RB and as of right now I'd draft him anywhere from the late 3rd to somewhere in the 5th round. But I won't lie, being a Wisconsin RB is a slight negative for me until one of them becomes an effective runner in the pros.
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Old 11-30-2011, 07:52 AM    (permalink
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so your argument is that Ball is a questionable prospect because he's not scoring his TDs like Barry Sanders????
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Old 11-30-2011, 08:07 AM    (permalink
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If anyone thinks Ball is an elite RB prospect because he's scored 29 TDs, they need to go watch more Badger football.
The question is how good is Montee?? It's not like I think he can't play in the NFL or develop into a starter for a team.
But his rushing TD numbers alone tell you very little about him as a prospect.
It's a great college accomplishment and that's about it.

Of all the stats you can study about a RB prospect, his rush TDs is the least predictive or analytical relating to his ability to be successful at the next level.
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Old 11-30-2011, 08:19 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post

I'm referring to his rushing yards. It's hard to extrapolate rushing TDs exclusively for a RB prospect to the next level.

Ball has 29 rushing TDs, but only 1622 yards rushing. So I would assume those scores are mostly short runs and not of the 25+ yards variety.
Most college backs with over 25 TDs rushing in a season have rushed for over 2K.
Do you realize how many fourth quarters Ball has sat on the sideline this year? About enough to make for a loss of two complete games. How many yards do you think he would have if he had those extra two games?

And the people who keep comparing him to Barry Sanders need to stop. They are different running backs and everyone knows that...that is not a reason to knock Montee. Plenty of RB's have won the Heisman without being Barry Sanders or posting his numbers. Right now, Montee Ball looks every bit as good if not better than Mark Ingram during the year he won the Heisman.
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Old 11-30-2011, 08:44 AM    (permalink
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If anyone thinks Ball is an elite RB prospect because he's scored 29 TDs, they need to go watch more Badger football.
The question is how good is Montee?? It's not like I think he can't play in the NFL or develop into a starter for a team.
But his rushing TD numbers alone tell you very little about him as a prospect.
It's a great college accomplishment and that's about it.

Of all the stats you can study about a RB prospect, his rush TDs is the least predictive or analytical relating to his ability to be successful at the next level.
No one was saying he's an elite prospect by any means but he can be a very good back at the next level. Don't use the watch more Badger football card. I think most Badger fans will tell you, myself included, that Ball is a far different back then any recent back that they've had (Calhoun being the most similar type of player)
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:12 AM    (permalink
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I don't know what his rushing TDs tell you about Bell as a pro prospect. Yeah its an important part of the evaluation,( if Bell for instance only scored 2 rushing TDs I'm sure it would be viewed as a negative).

But with Montee Ball's TD numbers, IMO it's more important to look at HOW he's scoring those TDs, not HOW MUCH.

When you look at a game by game stat breakdown of Barry Sanders 39 TDs at Ok State, he was scoring at least one TD a game that was 30+ yards or longer. It wasn't blown coverages or missed assignments that created those runs. Barry Sanders couldn't be tackled in the open field once he hit the second level of college defenses. Too quick, too elusive. Too instinctive.

I'm not downgrading the value of being able to rush for TDs near the goal line. It's a part of the reason John Riggins is in the HOF.

But I just don't know anything definitive bout Montee Ball because he's rushed for almost 30 TDs.

He looks like a solid RB and as of right now I'd draft him anywhere from the late 3rd to somewhere in the 5th round. But I won't lie, being a Wisconsin RB is a slight negative for me until one of them becomes an effective runner in the pros.
This is such a strawman. No one is saying he is elite because of his touchdown numbers. You said that he didn't have the production and 6.5 ypc isn't enough for the amount of touchdowns he scores. And when someone showed you stats calling you out on Ball doing more than pounding it in from the goal line you ignored it and attacked a point no one brought up.
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:13 AM    (permalink
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But I still feel like Montee Ball fans are arguing that his rush TD totals are an indicator of his talent, when at best they are a minor correlation for the next level.
Who does he remind you of in the NFL??
He's not going to outrun defenses in the pros. I see a smaller Shon Greene.
I still say he reminds me of Evan Royster, maybe a little better.
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:26 AM    (permalink
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But I still feel like Montee Ball fans are arguing that his rush TD totals are an indicator of his talent, when at best they are a minor correlation for the next level.
Who does he remind you of in the NFL??
He's not going to outrun defenses in the pros. I see a smaller Shon Greene.
I still say he reminds me of Evan Royster, maybe a little better.
I'm not even a Montee Ball fan, I haven't watched much Badger football. I am just pointing out your flawed logic. I have no opinion on him as a prospect, I just have an opinion on a terrible argument you made.
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:38 AM    (permalink
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Get off it dude.

Ball just doesn't have the yardage total I would expect for a guy who rushed for 29 TDs. Great, he averaged 6.5 ypc. I still hold the opinion that I would expect more yards on the ground for a college RB who scores almost 30 TDs.

It's not that his numbers are inflated per se, but IMO they are slightly misleading.

You're off in the weeds on some rhetorical critique about my post on a prospect.

The point is Montee Ball IMO isn't as good as his stats look on paper.
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Old 11-30-2011, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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Ha ok, sounds good. Next time I see someone criticize 29 TDs and 1600 yards as not enough production I will let it go.
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Old 11-30-2011, 11:12 AM    (permalink
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Wasn't this thread originally about Heisman and not how one translates to the NFL?
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Old 12-02-2011, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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Montee Ball=Joseph Addai
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Old 12-03-2011, 10:29 AM    (permalink
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Montee Ball=Joseph Addai
Addai is faster
Ball runs with way more power
They are both versatile although I think Addai has more durability concerns.

I have seen much worse comparisons. Their respective college careers don't compare at all though.
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Old 12-03-2011, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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Haven't seen a ton of Ball, but how's a Javon Ringer comparison?
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Old 12-06-2011, 06:42 PM    (permalink
norcalgsr
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Originally Posted by jbooshey View Post
Addai is faster
Ball runs with way more power
They are both versatile although I think Addai has more durability concerns.

I have seen much worse comparisons. Their respective college careers don't compare at all though.
Ok how's this one: Montee Ball = Tashard Choice.
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Old 12-06-2011, 07:07 PM    (permalink
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Ok how's this one: Montee Ball = Tashard Choice.
I like that comparison. Not meant as a slight to Ball because Choice hasn't exactly blown up in the NFL, but I think Ball is a similar player, that will be in a better situation and perform better in his career. They are very similar size and I think they have similar running styles. Both are slashers that don't shy away from contact.
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Old 12-06-2011, 07:33 PM    (permalink
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Ball just doesn't have the yardage total I would expect for a guy who rushed for 29 TDs. Great, he averaged 6.5 ypc. I still hold the opinion that I would expect more yards on the ground for a college RB who scores almost 30 TDs.

It's not that his numbers are inflated per se, but IMO they are slightly misleading.

I think you're using flawed logic when you say his stats are misleading because his rushing yards aren't up to par with his touchdowns. maybe you should look at how many times he touches the ball to how many scores he has. the fact that he's scoring waaay more td's with a somewhat average amount of touches speaks to me a lot more than having a weighted balance of yards and touchdowns. and it's not like he's a scrub in the yardage catgory either. he's leading the nation in rushing, while the guy in second place has almost 100 more carries than he does. This part of your argument really doesn't make sense and seems a bit illogical to me.
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Old 12-26-2011, 03:17 AM    (permalink
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What is Ball's ceiling and floor in terms of where he gets drafted? Does high as the second and low as the fifth sound about right?
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Old 12-26-2011, 03:29 AM    (permalink
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I love Javon Ringer and think it sucks that he got stuck behind CJ2K in Tennessee. Same way I grieve for Toby Gerhart in Minnesota. Both are guys who could be putting up 1000+ yard seasons for other clubs.

Anyway, depending on his 40 time I think Ball is drafted anywhere from the bottom of the 2nd round to the top of the 5th.

The faster he runs, the higher he goes.
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