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Old 01-11-2012, 05:47 PM    (permalink
DraftSavant
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A very, very good (but not transcendent) left tackle (a devalued position) or a quarterback who hasn't showed that he can:

a) be the foundation of his offense
b) raise the performance of those around him and/or overcome their deficiencies

Not as cut and dry as it seems. What's the difference between Matt Ryan from, say, Matt Cassel other than where they were drafted?

I'll say this...I'm not jealous my team didn't have the first overall pick that year. :shrug:
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Old 01-11-2012, 05:49 PM    (permalink
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Ryan - 4 winning seasons of 4, 3 playoff appearances.

Long - 1 winning season out of 4, 1 playoff appearance.


There's your answer.
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Old 01-11-2012, 05:55 PM    (permalink
DraftSavant
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Sedrick Ellis has more playoff games, wins, and a Superbowl ring. That's better than either Long or Ryan. Shoulda drafted him.

Why should Matt Ryan be attributed for Atlanta's success any more than, say, Michael Turner? The year they missed the playoffs, Turner was injured a lot. When he gets the ball a lot, they win.

Matt Ryan is not the foundation of the Atlanta offense. As such, this is much harder to quantify than people are making it out to be. How many other QBs could replicate what Ryan has done so far?

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Old 01-11-2012, 06:06 PM    (permalink
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I think alot of people have forgotten that Miami went 11-5 in 2008 after drafting Jake Long. Just because in this scenario you may prefer to take Long isn't the same thing as saying "I'll take an elite LT and ignore QB forever". It's not Jake Long's fault that Miami thought Pat White was the answer.


It's also not like the team sucking is Jake Long's fault either. I don't even know that Miami is in the playoffs with Matt Ryan. ATL snuck in with a wildcard this season, and look at the group of weapons he was provided with. I'm supposed to think he'd somehow do better with what Miami has? Good QB's miss the playoffs all the time last time I checked.


I just don't think people should be trying to rationale the question by the shape the team is in. If Miami landed Andy Dalton would that be changing anyone's minds? Because it still wouldn't have anything to do with the question at hand.
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Old 01-11-2012, 06:12 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
I think alot of people have forgotten that Miami went 11-5 in 2008 after drafting Jake Long. Just because in this scenario you may prefer to take long isn't the same thing as saying "I'll take an elite LT and ignore QB forever". It's not Jake Long's fault that Miami thought Pat White was the answer.


It's not like the team sucking is Jake Long's fault. Also, I don't know that Miami is even in the playoffs with Matt Ryan. ATL snuck in with a wildcard this season, and look at the group of weapons he was provided with. I'm supposed to think he'd somehow do better with what Miami has? Good QB's miss the playoffs all the time last time I checked.


I just don't think people should be trying to rationale the question by the shape the team is in. If Miami landed Andy Dalton would that be changing anyone's minds? Because it still wouldn't have anything to do with the question at hand.
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Old 01-11-2012, 06:19 PM    (permalink
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Given what we know now, I'd still go with the All-Pro LT.

Yes, it's hard to find a franchise QB; but I don't believe it's impossible. I would rather shore up a spot on the most valuable spot on my O-line for a decade over a decent QB who you have to build a great team around.

I may be a bit of a gambler, but I'm looking for a franchise QB that can lead me to a superbowl. Personally, I'd draft a QB every other year if I can't find a good one. If I was the Jaguars, Browns, or Jets GM, I would certainly take RG3 if he's available or I can get him. Gabbert is not a starting NFL QB and I think that's clear (usually it takes a couple years to know, but Gabbert really is that bad).

There are legitimate franchise QBs available... may not be every year, but you can find them if you work hard enough. Let's give the Bears some credit for getting Cutler. Yes, a QB like Cutler isn't available except every 5-7 years through trade, but I think you can keep gambling on QBs if you think they will be great. Cincy did great with Dalton, obviously the Panthers had a great steal in Newton and Ponder/Locker are looking like they will be better than Ryan.

I can't bash Ryan too much because he's an average qb and better than half hte starters in the league; but in my opinion, if you're looking for a superbowl, you need a superbowl QB (unless you're team is absolutely stacked like the 00 Ravens).
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Old 01-11-2012, 08:26 PM    (permalink
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Sometimes I wonder how we create the logic we use on this forum.

Does everyone realize that you cannot always get a QB as good as Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady?

Sometimes as a franchise, you have to take a chance on a young guy who may not end up being hall of fame candidate - but as long as he's good enough to get you into the play offs then you have a shot.

If you're in a constant state of looking for a franchise QB that can compete with with top tier QB's then you'll end up like the Dolphins, who are perpetual losers as of late sitting on top of their "all-pro" franchise left tackle.

Certainly once the Dolphins do get their guy, that QB will be much better protected than Matt Ryan was as a rookie. But is it worth sacrificing the last 3 (or however many) while waiting for that QB?
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Old 01-11-2012, 09:08 PM    (permalink
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The consensus has gone towards the QB because that is the "franchise," however, when was was the last time an average QB even won the Super Bowl?

The closest you can come up with is Eli in 2007, 5 years ago, and he has developed in to that Super Bowl capable, franchise QB. Even then he was mediocre, but playing at an elite level in the playoffs. Before that? Big Ben can be considered, Brad Johnson of the Bucs, and coincidentally only a few years before that Trent Dilfer. So since 2000 only 2, arguably, three QBs were average-to below average starters which everyone seems to be calling Matty Ice. Before 2000, you have to back to Mark Rypien in 94' and McMahon in 85'.

Every single team in between those 4/5 guys was a top performer. Favre, Warner, Young, Elway, P. Manning, Brady, etc. For arguments sake, let's do a statistical analysis on this matter. From 1990-2011, there have been 21 Super Bowls, and 5/21 gives you a 24% chance of winning the Super Bowl if you do not have an elite, franchise QB. Of course this is all just theory, but really I think it could have some weight as it seems to be more causation than correlation.

Moral of the story? Great QBs win Super Bowls not so much the just good ones. The general consensus is that Matt Ryan is an average one. Yeah, he's better than half the QBs in the league, but there's about 10 (give or take, not the point right now) I'll take over him.

Chances are slim I win won with him, and so I gotta go with Jake Long, and keep searching for that franchise guy. Sure, it's hard to quantify but that's part of the job description as an NFL GM. So I totally understand the pressure, but I still have to with the correct move and that's the better overall, pound for pound player-- Jake Long.
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Old 01-11-2012, 09:42 PM    (permalink
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When's the last time an elite LT won the Super Bowl? Jonathan Ogden 10 years ago. You can win Super Bowls with average tackles. I don't think Matt Ryan is all that great, but he's a QB you can win a Super Bowl with. Maybe he's not a guy that's going to win it for you, but you can win with him. Sure you'd rather have that elite guy that'll lead you there, but good luck finding one. You can spend the next 20 years looking for that and never have success. Matt Ryan will get you closer than Jake Long.
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Old 01-11-2012, 11:05 PM    (permalink
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I'll take Matt Ryan. He is a great QB. I have nothing else to add.
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